Sunday, March 26, 2017

Is MItchell Trubisky a Number One Pick (or close to it)?

    Is Mitchell Trubisky worthy of being the top overall pick? This year might be a bit of an anomaly because Myles Garret is  I thought it might be interesting to compare him to Andrew Luck and Cam Newton, who were the most obvious number one picks of the past several years.   I've listed some parameters for what I think are important. Your list might be different than mine.  In particular, you'll notice that I didn't list the quarterback's rushing stats at all, because I care not a whit how well how much yardage he gets on the ground.  In fact, I'd rather than he not run much.  
     There's not much to complain about.  Each of the quarterbacks has a good or better rating on virtually everything.  In light blue I've shown instances in which the numbers are not quite as good as the others.  
     Mitchell's nunbers are comparable to Andrew's and Cam's but probably not quite as good.   None of the three really blew you away with stats. The single most impressive stat is that Mitchell went 624 yards between interceptions, which is very very good, especially since he did not have much talent surrounding him  
    Mitchell did well at the combine but didn't really blow away the competition.   He turned out to be an inch shorter than advertised and is not as big as Andrew or Cam.  Cam is a bit bigger, faster and quicker than his counterparts, but Andrew probably throws a distinctly better ball than Mitchell or Cam.  MItchell was tied for fourth in the 2017 class for ball velocity, so he is very good but not special in that regard.  Accuracy is his real strength. 
      Mitchell would have had to destroy the Combine to be the first overall pick, in my view, but that didn't happen. Defensive End Myles Garrett is the guy who who made jaws drop and eyeballs bulge, and that is part of the reason why he will be the first overall pick.   
    I grade Mitchell as the top quarterback in the draft, but a little bit short of the past standard for first overall pick.  Besides, history proves that NFL teams overvalue quarterbacks in the first round anyway, as the failure rate is too high.   If I were GM of the Browns I would tend to other priorities in the first part of the draft.  



Saturday, March 25, 2017

Are the Browns Winning or Losing with Free Agents?

ALL-Pro Guard Kevin Zeitler switches sides from the Bengals to Browns in 2017

       Are the Browns doing better or worse with respect to Free Agents in the Sashi Brown erea?  That's an easy question to answer for 2017.  The team has signed some good players, so they will be better than in 2016.   But that does not necessarily mean the Front Office is doing a good job. Remember that last year they decided to gut the team in order to clear salary cap room, sending away an amazing six players who wound up starting for other teams.   But are we really doing better compared to the 2015 squad that Sashi Brown inherited from Ray Farmer?  
     Let's look at the overall gains and losses starting with the 2016 off season.  I've listed all of the players I can think of that left the Browns or were cut or traded, and all the guys who were signed or traded for to take their places. That includes this year's free agency so far, as of March 25.
    The players are broken down into groups to allow you to more easily compare.   The first group is basically a wash, in which we give up two good linemen and get two good linemen, plus backup quarterbacks.  
    In the seond group, we get Kenny Britt and three backup offensive linemen, and give up three very good wide receivers. It sems that the receivers we gave up have not been adequately replaced. 
   On defense it gets very interesting.  We picked up four good players.  Collins in particular is a former All Pro, but did not play particularly well coming in mid-season to a totally new defensive system.   Demario Davis and Jamar Taylor are competent NFL starters if not superstars.   We lost former Pro Bowler Tashaun Gipson, who was good but not great this year, while Craig Robertson emerged as a full time starter for the Saints.  He was probably under-appreciated by the Browns.   I think Stephen Paea will be like Robertson and contribute to the Dallas Cowboys this year.  He's a very good player for a four man front.  Veterans Dansby, Kruger, Whitner and Williams are on the downside of their careers, but still able to contribute.   
     In 2016 we clearly missed those guys but in 2017 it's less clear that they will outperform their potential replacements.  I think Whitner, Kruger and Dansby might not start for the 2017 Browns. In the meantime, the Browns have accumulated several compensatory draft picks, moved up in the draft, and also have stashed away $50 million in carryover salary cap from previous years. 
     The regular cap is basically the annual payroll, while carryover money is like a savings account.  Yes we can spend it on free agents, but once you spend it, it is gone.  In some future year we will use it to bring a few key players to get us to the Super Bowl, but that time is not now.   

     So, it's clear why we got pasted in 2016.  We let go of too much talent, even if it was overpriced.  This year, the payroll is being brought back up to some extent, while the team is still investing heavily in the NFL Draft.  The key obviously, is whether the Browns can scout the Draft effectively or not.  Their history of blowing first round picks makes you wonder, doesn't it?  And we also need to see effective player development, which includes conditioning. The Browns have not been impressive in that area, with several key young players accused of not being in shape in recent years. 

   But the Browns do have a strategic plan in place.  It makes sense, and it's possible that it will actually work if the scouting and coaching are up to the task.  

Browns Get Browns Give Up
All Pro Kevin Zeitler Pro Bowler Alex Mack
Starter JC Tretter Starter Mitchell Schwartz
Reserve Brock Osweiler Reserve Josh McCown
Reserve Kevin Hogan Reserve John Manziel
Reserve Austin Davis
Starter Kenny Britt Starter Terrelle Pryor
Reserve Anthony Fabiano Starter Travis Benjamin
Reserve Gabe Ikard Starter Taylor Gabriel
Reserve Austin Reiter Reserve Austin Pasztor
All Pro Jamie Collins Starter Tashaun Gipson
Starter Demario Davis Starter Craig Robertson
Starter Jamar Taylor Starter Stephen Paea
Starter B Boddy-Calhoun Starter Karlos Dansby
Starter Ed Reynolds Starter Paul Kruger
   Starter Donte Whitner
$50 M in carryover money Special teams Johnson Bademosi
Extra draft picks Reserve Tramon Williams
Reserve Barkevious Mingo
Reserve Justin Gilbert

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Who are the Browns not Taking at 12th Overall?

      The buzz is that the Browns will take Mitchell Trubisky if he is available at 12th overall, and maybe some other quarterback even if he is not.  All right, but does that mean we are drafting a quarterback no matter who else is available (i.e., do we really think he is the best prospect other than Myles Garrett).  But who is it that we are not taking? If Jonathan Allen somehow slides to Number 12, we're not going to draft him?   I think you have to, because he's a sensational disruptor as a defensive tackle, with the quickness to play defensive end. 
    Marshon Lattimore is that true shutdown cornerback that everone talks about, with 4.36 speed.  Gotta have him!   
  Similarly I think after running a 4.3 at his Pro Day, Jamal Adams is going to be a top draftee. He's been a phenomenal player and running a 4.3 will make the scouts drool.   
     Solomon Thomas is a monster DE from Stanford. Got to have him on my team before taking a flyer on a quarterback.      Derek Barnett is a premier sack artist, with 33 sacks in the past three years at Tennessee.  Many analysts like him even more than Jonathan Allen. You can't pass up that kind of talent can you? 
   Then there's Mike Williams, who I think is an outstanding wide receiver, the best in the draft, and we are short on help after losing Terrelle Pryor and having a disappointing rookie campaign from Corey Coleman. I couldn't see passing him up if he drops to 12.    
    Carm Robinson?  A monster tackle who was a huge reason for Alabama's success.  No way to I pass on him if he's available at Number 12.
    Earnest Byner posted that he likes Dalvin Cook even a bit better than Fournette.  For that reason I've got Dalvin ranked a little ahead of Fournette, although I like the short yardage capability of a big back like Fournette.    I think both of those guys are going to be dominant running backs for years to come.
     Speaking of physical freaks, there's O. J. Howard at tight end.  A lot of fans would not draft a tight end that high, but in my opinion you can play multiple tight end sets if they are good enough.   O. J. is 6'6, 250 and ran 4.51.  Oh my.  I have to take him if he's available. 
     Rubin Foster has been criticized for throwing a temper tantrum at the Combine.  Well, ok, but we're looking at him at linebacker not Pope.  Linebackers are just knd of crazy, and so I'm not turned off by linebackers just because they act like linebackers.
     Leonard Fournette rounds out my Top 12.  I really like his potential for picking up tough yards at the goal line.  Sign me up for some of that. 
    I think I would take any of those  guys ahead of Trubisky.   He comes in at about 13,.  That means that if the other teams draft using my talent evaluations (I doubt it), then Trubisky might be on the board when it is the Browns' turn at 12.   But rally the quarterback is not necessarily the biggest impact player even at 12.   I would go with one of these guys instead of MItchell.  I honestly think it is a deep draft with the top guys looking like legit Pro Bowl candidates very soon.   
    Mitchell looks like a great prospect, but one without a lot of experience.  It might take a while to get him ready for the NFL.  I think he's a first round draft choice, but this year I really see a big difference from the front end of the draft compared to the back end. The Top 12 in this draft really is loaded with top talent, though not necessarily at the quarterback position. I believe that some of these guys are going to grow up to be Pro-Bowlers, All-Pros, and even  Hall of Fame players.     

My top 12 looks like this:

Myles Garrett DE  TAMU 
Jonathan Allen DT Alabama
Marshon Lattimore CB   Ohio State     
Jamal Adams SS LSU
Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
Derek Barnett DE Tennessee
Mike Williams  WR Clemson 
Cam Robinson T Alabama  
Dalvin Cook RB Florida State

O. J. Howard TE Alabama
Reubin Foster LB Alabama
Leonard Fournette  RB LSU

Mitchell Trubisky, QB North Carolina

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Village Elliot's Post Combine Mock Draft 2017

Myles Garret destroyed the Combine and will be the Number One overall pick.  

    I was a doubter for a while, but now that Myles Garret has crushed the Combine, he is definitely the number one pick for the NFL draft.  I originally had Mitch Trubisky going first overall to the Browns, but after a so-so Sun Bowl performance, I decided he might not be a Hall of Famer after all, and downgraded him to second overall.  Besides the Browns do not really need a quarterback as much as they need to help an underperforming defense and terrible offensive line.  I think they are going to draft one or possibly two starting in Round 2, although they might be tempted to pull the trigger at #12 if Mahomes or Trubisky are still available.
      I think it is more likely that the Browns will draft one or even two prospects in Rounds 2 thru 4.  I think that the analytics guys will keep doing that until they are satisfied with the quarterback corps.  Even then, the goal is not to just have one quarterback, but have two or three, like the Patriots.  

      Deshaun Watson fell out of the first round after recording the slowest ball velocity of a major quarterback at 49 mph. I don't think his game is going to translate to the NFL as great as he has been for Clemson.  
     I was thinking of bumping Deshone Kizer all the way to the second round, but I figure his talent level is so high that someone will take a chance on him late in the first round, despite underperforming at Notre Dame. Houston would be a good fit, since that team loves to gobble up quarterbacks almost as much as the Browns.  My take is that in 2016 his receiving talent was not nearly as good as 2015, when the team sent three wideouts to the NFL.    So maybe we can forgive his relatively ordinary stats and focus on his exceptional throwing ability.  
    I bumped Jabrill Peppers  up and down.  For awhile,  I was afraid he was slower than advertised because Curtis Samuel looked faster when OSU played Michigan.  Well, Curtis Samuel is faster, but Peppers is still a 4.4 guy, which is excellent for a safety.  Plus he is an outstanding return guy.
     I had sent back Jamal Adams for running a 4.5, but on his Pro Day he ran a 4.3.    That's worth 10 spots at least, in my opinion.
    I moved Obi Melfonwu up over Jabrill Peppers because of a monstrous combine, and criticism of Peppers' coverage skills.  I still like Peppers because he had to play out of position in 2016 (linebacker) because his team needed him to, but normally he would have developed at strong stafety.  

   I like O J Howard even though the Browns don't really need a tight end.  But he is just too talented to pass up.  The Browns do need a right tackle to stabilize that Offensive Line.  If they decide to trade back they might land Ryan Ramczyk.  I think Trubisky and Mahomes will be gone early.  Mahomes looked every bit as good as Trubisky at the Combine.  

1BrownsMyles Garrett TAMUDE
2SFMarshon Lattimore    Ohio StateCB
3ChiJonathan AllenAlabamaDE   
4JacksonvilleMitchell TrubiskyUNCQB 
5TitansJamal Adams LUSSSR
6JetsPat MahomesTexas TechQB
7ChargersMike Williams    Clemson  WR
8PanthersCam RobinsonAlabama
9BengalsDerek BarnettTennesseeDE
10BillsMallik Hooker OSUFS
11SaintsLeonard FournetteLSU RB
12BrownsOJ HowardAlabamaTE
13CardinalsCorey DavisWestern MichWR
14EaglesCurtis SamuelOhio StateWR
15ColtsDalvin CookFlorida StateRB
16RavensMalik McDowellMich StDE
17WashingtonTim WilliamsAlabamaLB
18TitansRyan RamczykWisconsinRT
19TampaJohn RossWashingtonWR 
20BroncosJarrad DavisFloridaLB
21LionsMarlon HumphreyAlabamaCB
22MiamiReuben FosterAlabamaLB
23GiantsKevin KingWashington cb
24RaidersRaekwon McMillanOSULB
25TexansDeShone KizerNDQB
26GBObi MelfonwuMUConnS
27SeahawksCharles HarrisMissouriDE
28AtlantaTakkarist McKinleyUCLAOLB
29SteelersCaleb BrantleyFloridaDT
30KCJabrill Peppers MichiganSS
31CowboysCordrea TankersleyClemsonCB
32NEChristian McCaffreyStanfordRB


Sunday, March 12, 2017

Post Combine Update on QBs in the 2017 NFL Draft, Cleveland Edition

      The NFL Combine had some unexpected insights on quarterbacks and where they will be drafted.  I don't believe the Browns are going to draft a quarterback with the first overall pick, and in fact I believe that from an analytics standpoint the Harvard boys are going to look for one or maybe even two guys from the LATE first round till about Round 4.
      I've written about that elsewhere, but to summarize, my belief is that quarterbacks are too high of a risk to invest a high first round pick, since they are more likely to be a bust rather than a star player.  Missing is less painful with a later draft pick, and quality players still emerge from those rounds. 
Quarterbacks are just hard to judge, especially now that they are coming out a year or two earlier than back in the day.  Thus it's probably better to draft two guys in middle rounds than one guy in Round 1. 
  I think Mitchell Trubisky and Pat Mahomes are going to go in the first round.   Deshone Kizer might join them later in the round   All three have good arms, size, smarts.  However at 55 mph, Mitchell Trubisky is not that much of an upgrade over Cody Kessler, who also threw 55 mph at the combine. WIth Trubisky you a taller much faster guy, but one with very little exerience.   
    Pat Mahones singed the radar gun at 60 mph, and put up monstrous stats at Texas Tech which is a Big 12 school.  The Big 12 is notoriously bad at pass defense, meaning that quarterbacks have consistently lit it up there, so you can't get overly excited by quarterback stats out there. Still, complared to Trubisky he has much more experience and been dominant rather than just very good.   I think there is an outside chance Mahomes gets taken ahead of Trubisky.

n the other hand, Deshaun Watson is unbelievably slow at 49 mph. I don't believe there is a starting NFL qb that slow. In addition, his interception rate was appallingly high despite having stud receivers including Mike Williams.   I'm bumping him ever further down my list, I don't care that he's a great runner and has intelligence and charisma.   Like Tim Tebow, I don't think his game will translate to the next level.  I think he should play right field for the Mets with Tebow in left.

    Davis Webb was at 59 mph, and DeShone Kizer was at 56 mph, also very good numbers.  Webb has small hand size and lost out to Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  You know what? That might not be a disgrace.  I think if the only thing you don't like is the size of his hands, that is still a second round pick.   I don't see a 59 mph arm lasting to Day 3.

   DeShone Kizer had an underwhelming career at Notre Dame with good but not great stats for an underperforming program.  Still, he's got size, athleticism, talent and he played for a big time program, but one which struggled with an inexperienced wide receiver corps.   Many list Deshone in the first round, based on his arm and athleticism.  I think Round 2 is a more appropriate place for him but the NFL GMs love quarterbacks and will probably nab him late in Round 1.

One guy who came out of nowhere at the Combine was Jerod Evans, 6'3" 232 who threw at the same speed as Mitchell Trubisky.   Moreover, he was responsible for 4398 total yards from scrimmage and threw only 8 INTs for a major college team.   And he did not have nearly the same team behind him that some of the other guys did.   I've got to think he is worth a shot as early as Round 3.  

  Brad Kaaya has performed well for a so-so Miami team and has great accuracy, but 53 mph is going to hurt him.  I believe he will fall to the third or fourth round.   
      Chad Kelly has first round talent and maybe the best arm in the draft, but he got kicked off the team at Clemson. Anger management is a major red flag. I like guys that are in better control of their emotions at the quarterback position. You could imagine that he could develop and mature if a team is willing to be patient.  After a knee injury, I don't really want to see him until 2018, but he would be worth a mid to late round draft pick.  

Table 1 where I think they will be drafted:
Mitch Trubisky         1   North Carolina           6'3"  220 
Pat Mahomes          1   Texas Tech                6'3"  230
DeShone Kizer       1   Notre Dame               6'4"  230
Deshaun Watson     2   Clemson                    6'2" 215

Davis Webb             2   California                   6'3"  227
Brad Kaaya             3    Miami                        6'4"  210

Jerod Evans            4    Va Tech                     6'3"  232
Chad Kelly               4   Ole Miss                    6'2"  224
Zach Terrell              4   Western Michigan     6'2"  210
Joshua Dobbs         5   Tennessee                 6'3"  210
Nathan Peterman   6   Pitt                             6'2"  225
C. J. Beathard         7   Iowa                           6'2"  215

Hometown kid Mitchell Trubisky can stand in the pocket and make a good smart throw, and then take a hit.  What more could we really want?  Maybe two more years at the college level.  

Table 2.  Where I would draft them:

Nobody till mid first round, then

Mitch Trubisky        1   North Carolina           6'3"  220
Pat Mahomes         1  Texas Tech                 6'3"  230
DeShone Kizer       2    Notre Dame              6'4"  230
Davis Webb            2    California                  6'3"  227
Jerod Evans           3   Va Tech                      6'3" 232
Chad Kelly              3   Ole Miss                    6'2"  224
Brad Kaaya             4   Miami                         6'4"  210
Zach Terrell             4   Western Michigan      6'2"  210
Joshua Dobbs         4   Tennessee                 6'3"  210
Deshaun Watson     4   Clemson                    6'2" 215
Nathan Peterman   6   Pitt                             6'2"  225
C. J. Beathard         7   Iowa                           6'2"  215

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Is Myles Garrett Really Worth the Number One Overall Pick? Yes.

     Stop the presses!  I have just written a blog criticizing Myles Garrett for not putting up huge numbers, but his combine numbers are out of this world.  I'm tearing the old blog up and writing a new article.   Myles Garrett has blown his critics out of the water with the single most impressive performance at the Combine this year.  
     Let's start with the Bench Press.   33 reps which would have been 35 except he didn't have proper form on two of them.  That's the same level as Danny Shelton, meaning he is as strong as King Kong.
     Then he goes and runs 4.64 in the 40 yard dash.  That is extremely fast for a defensive end, though not as fast as Jadeveon Clowney.  Then add a 41 inch vertical leap and very long arms, and it is clear that quarterbacks will be challenged to throw the ball over or around him.  

    No doubt this is the greatest combine performance of the year.   I think it makes up for otherwise weak numbers his senior year.  For example, Myles played 8 games against Division I team last year and only had 4 sacks against them (4.5 sacks against meaningless Conference USA competition).  
    In addition, Myles did not do well against ranked teams last year and in particular Alabama handled him well.   Check this film yourself, in which he actually got some good stats, and also don't forget to watch the astounding sack by Jonathan Allen at 2:28.  I came away with the idea that Cam Robinson should also be a first round pick.  He's outstanding. 

     On the plus side, Myles had 15 tackles for loss last year, which is outstanding, and shows his ability to penetrate 
   Teams held him, double teamed him and ran to the opposite side a lot to avoid him. Plus the colleges use a lot of shotgun and spread formations which means fewer opportunities for sacks in college. I'm still a bit wary about Garrett's relative lack of statistical production, but you can not ignore his combine performance.  This guy is an incredible athlete.  The scouts are right.  

Emmanuel Ogbah might have to shift to the left side if the Browns acquire Myles Garrett.  
   The guy Myles wants to replace is Emmanuel Ogbah, a second round choice who was a rookie last year. He is the same size as Garrett, meaning he is probably best suited to be a 4-3 defensive end.  He will have to shift to the left side and share some time with fellow second year man Carl Nassib, who seemed to spend a lot of time in opposing backfields last year.  

Friday, March 3, 2017

Drating Quarterbacks with Analytics: WWSD (What Would Sashi Do?)

    Theories abound as to what the Browns will do in the NFL draft, ranging from going with the same quarterback corps as last year, or signing a veteran to a multiyear contract or drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick.
     My thinking is that Sashi and the Browns front office are very heavy into “analytics” or mathmatical valuation theory.  I approve of that, by the way.  It doesn't replace the need for good scouting, but it does help to make rational decisions about how to value players, and whether to trade up or down.  All teams do that, and there needs to be some method to the madness.  I'm okay with letting Harvard analysts figure it out.  
    If that sounds complicated, maybe we can summarize it this way:  analytics tells you to avoid overpaying for something. You don't always get your first choice, but you don't make outrageous investments either.  
    For that reason, I don't think the Browns will throw draft picks and a huge contract at Jimmy Garoppolo of the Patriots.  It doesn't sound like any kind of analytics would tell you to  blow valuable draft picks and  issue a Brock Osweiler sized deal ($18 M per year, say). 
     If the scouts are totally in love with a propspect (Mitch Trubisky?  Pat Mahomes?), the Browns may draft a qb very early and perhaps even first overall.  But even that seems to overvalue the quarterback position. 
   My own version of analytics say that historically teams have drafted quarterbacks too high, despite the fact that they have trouble distinguishing between prospects in the first and second round.  The best chance to get a good quarterback is in Rounds 2 to 4. 
    This conclusion was reached by going back through recent history and listing every quarterback taken since 2012 and noting the draft position and assigning Schramm points to each pick (the so-called Schramm system assigns a point value to each pick, ranging from 3000 for the first pick overall, down to 2 for the seventh round).   Then I regraded the draft to estimate how many Schramm points the guy should have been worth.  For example in 2012, Andrew Luck was the first overall, Robert Griffin III was second overall, while Russel Wilson was a third round pick and Kirk Cousins was a fourth round pick.  In regrading the draft, I put Wilson first overall, followed by Luck and Kirk Cousins moved up to the first round.   I figured RG3 had a sensational year but so-so the rest of his career, so I put him in the middle of the second round.  So RG turned out to be worth fewer Schramm points, whereas Russell Wilson was a huge bargain.  
     Anyway, I added up the results for each round since 2012 and graph the results below.  The first chart shows the percentage of quarterbacks who were selected in each round that became decent starting quarterbacks, roughly in the Top 20 or better.   The chart shows first of all that there were no quarterbacks in rounds 5, 6 and 7 that fit that description, with Trevor Semian being the closest.  I don't think Trevor would be a first round pick if the 2015 draft were re-graded, so that's why I'm saying there were no "good' starting quarterbacks from the late rounds from 2012-2016. The results also show that guys taken in Round 1 really do have a higher chance of making it and becoming a successful quarterback. However, Round 2 picks are about as successful as Round 1 picks.
     The second chart shows the return on draft capital (how many Schramm points were gained according to my re-grade, versus the draft cost of the pick).   One thing that stands out is that the average return on investment is negative in Round 1.   This means that the NFL teams are taking quarterbacks too high in Round 1.  They are not actually better than second round picks so that shows up as a negative return on investment.
    In addition, Rounds 3 and Rounds 4 have produced very good quarterbacks like Russel Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott.  Even though many quarterbacks don't make it from those rounds, the data says you have a decent chance to score big in those rounds so the return on investment is very attractive. 
     Rounds 5, 6 and 7 have not produced superior starters recently, although going back a while a guy named Brady did okay.   However, a large number of late round picks are still in the league as backups.   I wasnt real sure how to rate these guys, but it's fair to say that usually teams are not willing to give up even late round draft picks for backup quarterbacks, except in rare cases like Jimmy Garoppolo whom I judge to be worth a number one pick.

Figure 1.   Chances of drafting a Top 20 NFL quarterback by round based on results from 2012 to 2016.  
Figure 2.  Return on draft capital (Schramm point system), as subjectively evaluated by the author in a hypothetical redraft.  Quarterbacks in Round One often underachieve, meaning that the return on draft capital is negative (teams usually regret their pick in Round 1).  Rounds 2,3 and 4 have positive returns meaning that they invest very little and hit it big often enough to make it worthwhile.   

     The data shows that, though there are always exceptions, the best place to take a qb is usually Rounds 2-4.  In those rounds the chances of getting a very good quarterback are about the same as Round 1, but much less draft capital is expended.  
     If you believe these numbers, perhaps a team should even be willing to draft more than one guy, and to keep an extra roster position for the extra qb.  If it were me (or maybe Sashi), it could be worth taking two guys around Rounds 2-4 rather than one guy near the top of Round 1. The Redskins took two quarterbacks in 2012, and fourth rounder Kirk Cousins turned out better than first rounder RG3, if you recall.   
    If the quarterback position is really so important, why not consider having four quarterbacks on the 53 man roster? Nobody in the NFL does that, but that is exactly the unorthodox conclusion that analytics might lead you to consider, if your scouts tell you that all four guys have a chance to develop.  
     I'll be the first to advocate that the 53rd guy is an important member of the team, even if he is a third string guy. But another roster spot to develop another quarterback would be much more important if it increases your chances of getting the franchise guy, and I believe it does.  
     In the case of the Browns, if they don't feel comfortable long term with either Cody Kessler or RG3, I would cut RG3 immediately on the grounds that although he appears to be good enough (in my opinion) to win some games, his skills are best suited for pistol read option style plays, which is not the long term right answer.  If RG3 is not a threat to make the 2018 Pro Bowl, it's time to cut ties.
    I would install Cody Kessler as the quarterback of the present (like the Broncos did with Trevor Semian, even though they had a hotshot first round pick on the bench in Paxton Lynch).  Cody is good enough that he is not going to kill the team, and he might develop further.  I would draft one or even two guys in this upcoming draft, given that it is a deep draft for quarterbacks this year. There are several intriguing prospects that have size, speed, production and arm strength, though few have four years of college these days. It's worth it to gamble in a middle round; there could be another Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson in there. Find him.   

     It's time to cut ties and go back to the draft as soon as  the Coach believes the quarterback is not developing beyond the Seneca Wallace level (i.e. even if he is a valuable backup player but not a threat to become a "franchise"). The numbers say that any given pick is  not more than 40% likely to be the right guy, so there are going to be some casualties along the way. But the data says the odds are in your favor by taking guys in the middle rounds.  Blowing it on a middle round pick is less painful than blowing it on a high first round pick or costly free agent.  Unless that quarterback is an Andrew Luck (big, strong, fast, accurate, athletic and sings in the choir at church), I would resist that temptation to draft that hotshot guy near the top of Round One.  Later in the round or Rounds 2-4 are better investments.   
    Certainly different people would re-grade the drafts differently than I did, though it's usually a no-brainer (Russell Wilson near the top of a re-draft, RG3 not).  I suspect that Sashi and the boys are doing something similar, though in a lot more detail and with much greater care.  But I believe in the basic sensibility of the approach.  My guess is that the Browns will not throw huge dollars and high draft choices at the quarterback position, but instead try to grow a home-made quarterback from the draft with one or two Kessler-type draft picks per year for while.