How do you figure out the value of a draft pick if you move up or move down in the NFL draft? I'm not an expert, but as a Math teacher and football fanatic I think I've come to understand the basic theory.
Years ago the Cowboys devised a mathematical point system to evaluate the relative value of draft picks, with the help of a computer. Gil Brandt was probably the single person who contributed the most, but the GM was Tex Schramm, and so the Cowboy's system is usually referred to as the Schramm Point System.
The system is based on a mid-first round draft pick (number 16 if there are 32 teams) being worth 1000 points. For example, according to the theory the first overall pick is worth 3000 points or 3 times the value of a mid-first-round pick. Later round picks are worth much less.
I am personally surprised at the vast differential between early and late rounds. I'll question those assumptions in a future blog, but for now the important point is that football experts generally agree with the Schramm concept, though everyone has a somewhat different formula. I've listed the values in the table below, and the same data is also plotted as a graph below.