Monday, November 28, 2016

NFL 2017 Draft QB Ratings from the Village Elliot

************************update*********January 5 2017*******************************
I updated my picks because Mason Rudolph is not coming out this year, so he says.   I also had Deshaun Watson fall back a little because of his penchant from INTs, but boosted him back up after a sensational bowl season, and Brad Kaaya moves up because he hangs on to the ball. Also one of my friends has been touting Zach Terrell of Western Michigan, and I think he may have a valid point.  He is very, very good to lead a MAC team to the Cotton Bowl. 

    It's very early, but with the Browns at 0-12 attention has already started to focus on the 2017 season.  I've had some success at projecting future qbs even though I am not that much of a scout and don't watch that much film.  But I can tell you that I like guys who are accurate, football-smart,  big enough to take a hit, strong-armed, experienced with high level competition and fast, in roughly that order.  There are exceptions of course.  

    I also think that it normally takes about two years to judge a quarterback, especially now that they are coming out a year or two earlier than back in the day.  

     Good quarterbacks can be found at any level in the draft. I don't think you have to take a guy in the first round to be successful, even though Browns Nation tends to be obsessed with quarterbacks for the first overall pick. Conversely, the success rate for quarterbacks is only about 50% in the first round, and lower for later rounds.  
   Last year, the Browns were ripped for passing on Carson Wentz and trading him for a boatload of draft picks, even though Carson has been a below average quarterback in his first year rather than an instant star.  

    I think serious consideration has to be given to trading down or picking some other position besides quarterback. We have four qbs who will play in the NFL next year:  Cody Kessler, Robert Griffin III, Kevin Hogan and Josh McCown. We're going to have to cut two of them if we draft someone in the first round, and it's arguable whether as a rookie he will be better than any of the four guys we already have.

     Nevertheless, I think Mitch Trubisky is going to be the number one overall pick, based on his outstanding accuracy, strong arm and football smarts.  He is not on a glamour team and he doesn't have a great corps of receivers, so perhaps his numbers don't jump out at you. But what he does is throw the football on the money consistently   If he does well at the Combine, I think that the GMs will fall madly in love with him.    Mason Rudolph would have moved up to the top 10 also, but he has decided to remain in school.    
      Brad Kaaya has performed well for a so-so Miami team, but like Trubisky and Rudolph, he isn't considered a superstar.  I have him in the late first round, but he is another guy who could move up if he wows the scouts at the Combine.
      At one point Deshaun Watson was at the top of everyone's draft list because of his passing and running ability, but he's thrown a lot of interceptions this year and people are wary. Plus, on a great Clemson team, you have to ask whether it's really the quarterback, or maybe his teammates--like WR Mike Williams.  So  I've pushed Deshaun back into the second round.
     Same with DeShone Kizer who has underperformed expectations a little bit.  He's been good but not great.   Many list him in the first round, based on his arm but I'm not buying it.   
      Chad Kelly has first round talent and maybe the best arm in the draft, but he got kicked off the team at Clemson.  I like guys that are in better control of their emotions at the quarterback position.  You could imagine that could happen with him if a team is willing to be patient.  After a knee injury, I don't really want to see him until 2018, but he would be worth a mid to late round draft pick. 
      Since Dak Prescott went in the fourth round last year, everybody figures that there might be another guy in a late round.  They might be right.  Davis Webb, Zach Terrel Nathan Peterman, C. J. Beathard and Joshua Dobbs all seem to have prototypic size and arm strength for the NFL.  If you look at the list, everyone is tall and big this year.  Maybe it's not the greatest quarterback draft of all time, but it is very deep and it is entirely possible that a late round quarterback could become a starter. which is not great but it didn't hurt Ben Roethlisberger. 

Generally, I don't think personnel guys are great geniuses. Like fans, they get too excited about quarterback potential and draft some of them too early.  Then they devalue the later rounds and consequently you see some really good players taken late.  How about 

Table 1 where I think they will be drafted:
Mitch Trubisky        1   North Carolina           6'3"  220
Deshaun Watson    1   Clemson                    6'2" 215

Pat Mahomes         1  Texas Tech                6'3"  230
Brad Kaaya             2   Miami                        6'4"  210
DeShone Kizer       2    Notre Dame              6'4"  230
Davis Webb             2    California                   6'3"  227
Chad Kelly               3   Ole Miss                    6'2"  224
Zach Terrell             4   Western Michigan      6'2"  210
Nathan Peterman   5   Pitt                             6'2"  225
C. J. Beathard         6   Iowa                           6'2"  215
Joshua Dobbs         6   Tennessee                 6'3"  210

Mitch Trubisky can stand in the pocket and make a good smart throw, and then take a hit.  What more could we really want?

Table 2.  Where I would draft them:
Nobody till mid first round, then

Mitch Trubisky        1   North Carolina           6'3"  220
Pat Mahomes         1  Texas Tech                6'3"  230
Brad Kaaya            1   Miami                        6'4"  210
DeShone Kizer       2    Notre Dame              6'4"  230
Deshaun Watson    2   Clemson                    6'2" 215
Davis Webb            2    California                   6'3"  227
Chad Kelly              3   Ole Miss                    6'2"  224
Zach Terrell            3   Western Michigan      6'2"  210
Joshua Dobbs        3   Tennessee                 6'3"  210
Nathan Peterman   4   Pitt                             6'2"  225
C. J. Beathard        5   Iowa                           6'2"  215

No comments:

Post a Comment