Why Was Danny Shelton Given Away?

Danny Shelton has been traded from the Browns to the Patriots.  Plus the Browns thrown in an extra 7th round pick.  The Patriots give nothing in 2018, then in 2019 they will send a third round pick to the Browns.  This for a guy who was 12th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.  

I've been a big fan of the giant Samoan kid, Danny Shelton q Defensive Lineman formerly of the Cleveland Browns, and now a New England Patriots.  At 6'2" and 335 pounds, give or take, he was one of the biggest and strongest guys on the team.  Pro Football Focus rated him as the 31st best interior lineman in the NFL, an above average player.  What gives?  Why did they get rid of him?

Ultimately, I don't know any more that the rest of you.  But I'll offer this speculation--to me this has the mark of Paul DePodesta, the baseball "analytics" guy that Sashi Brown hired.  DePodesta has been quiet, but new GM has kept him on the team, rather than fire him along with Brown.  DePodesta might really be the better analytics expert, not Brown, who was prone to make crazy decisions (like give away Joe Haden to the Steelers, for one).  Anyway, DePodesta understands the concept of "negative value" in a salary cap sport.  A player's value is related to how much he gets paid.  You try to maximize value and minimize cost.  So a guy who plays great and doesn't cost too much is worth adding to the team.  Conversely, if you feel he is overpaid, you should not add him to the team unless someone actually pays you.  The clearest example was Brock Osweiler, a backup quarterback who somehow got signed to a huge contract with substantial guarantees. The Browns wouldn't give anything to get him, they demanded and got a second round draft pick from the Texans in order to accept Osweiller's $16 Million salary cap charge.  So could it be that  the Browns thought that Danny Shelton was not worth $3 M?  DePodesta would ask, what if we took that $3M per year and signed a comparable player?  What have teams gotten when they invest $3 M on a player on the open market?  I looked up on spotrac.com the amounts that teams paid for defensive tackles in 2017.  Guys like Akeem Spence, Margus Hunt, Al Woods, got paid less than Shelton, but performed at a comparable level by Pro Football Focus' estimation.  They had Shelton ranked as the 35th best interior lineman (nose tackles and DT's all mixed together). Hunt was 33rd, Woods 24th.  Others, like Damien Square (99th) and Smith (65th)  were not at Shelton's level. 

Another question is how good Shelton actually is.  Danny had trouble with his weight as a rookie and really didn't play well.  But in 2016, a slimmed down Shelton was outstanding and there was talk that he might even make the Pro Bowl--as a Nose Tackle.  Shelton is perfect for a nose tackle.  He's big, strong and can plug up the middle of the line and stop the run.  But the Browns switched to a 4-3 defense, and Shelton became a Defensive Tackle, rather than a Nose Tackle.  They are not the same position. 

In particular, Danny was notorious for a plodding 5.64 time and the Combine.  For a Nose Tackle, it doesn't matter that much.  But a Defensive Tackle, there are increased responsibilities for rushing the passer and moving laterally.  In this case, his lack of speed is going to limit his effectiveness in Gregg Williams' defense. How could he be as effective as a mobile DT in the 4-3 versus the immovable object NT in the 3-4?  That seems unlikely.

Danny Shelton is slower than Tom Brady. By a lot. Ouch.  

Well, what about Pro Football Focus?  They gave Danny fairly high grades,right?  Well that is true.  PFF says they have several graders who watch every play.  I doubt whether they pay that much attention to the Browns, however.  I'm not a genius grader, but I thought in particular Joe Schobert was greatly improved starting in Preseason 2017.  But PFF gave him lousy grades for a few weeks (like in the 40s, which is F minus). before someone woke up. In the same way I doubt whether they paid attention to the defensive line. Trevon Coley?  Who's that?  Well Trevon had more tackles, more assists, more tackles for a loss, 2 sacks (versus zero for Danny), and a fumble recovery (none for Danny).  That earned Trevon a D plus.   How can anyone get a D plus on a line  on a line that was second in the NFL in yards allowed per carry??  Danny Shelton got a solid B, and especially surprising is that he was rated more highly against the pass than Coley.  Are you kidding?  There are glaciers that move faster than Danny's pass rush. 

Hence I'm not sure how accurately they graded the Browns in general, and in particular the defensive line.  PFF says they evaluate performance, and not talent level, and if so they are sloughing off on the Browns.  I think Shelton played out of position last year, and his performance was not nearly at the same level as in 2016.   He is just not that good in the 4-3 defense, and the PFF grade on Shelton as well as other Browns is hard to justify.  Coley, in fact, was rated as the worst interior lineman on the Browns, rated behind Larry Ogunjobi, Shelton, Jamie Meder and Caleb Brantley.   That is nuts that Coley is rated so poorly and once again I can't take PFF seriously in their evaluations of the Browns' players.

  However the larger point may be that all the Browns' Defensive Tackles have actually played well.  I could totally believe that after a winter of reviewing film, they felt that their 4-3 defense is better off with Coley, Ogunjobi, Meder and Brantley.   Maybe then Danny was headed for third string, and $3 Million per year was too steep of a price for someone not getting a lot of snaps.  

I think Danny will perform much better for the Patriots, and it would not shock me if he makes the Pro Bowl one of these years.  I'm sad to see him go, because he is a personal favorite.  It seems like a crazy move, but matbe not if you look at the salary cap, who's available, and who we already have.