Wednesday, March 14, 2018

What's Up With Very fast QB Ball Velocity This Year?


Quarterback velocities are up this year--way up.    Josh Allen reportedly can throw a football 66 miles per hour, which is 6 mph better than the previous best (Logan Thomas, who by the way didn't make it as an NFL player).  That's a full 10% improvement, an amazing figure.  To put it into perspective, if a person were to beat the previous 40 yard dash by 10%, he would run a 3.8.  Holy kazoo!  What is going on here?  It may be that this year there has been a quantum leap in the ability of human beings to throw a football.



That of course piques my curiousity, so I did some research on the subject.  First thing to know is that there are two sets of numbers being used. Dan Shonka of Ourlads.com published results in 2017 and 2018 for a pass to the right, and another pass to the left. His results are found here:

 Others use numbers from Dan Brugler of NFL Draft Scout.  




For example, Our Lads lists Mitchell Trubinsky's speed thusly:  51 (left), 50 (right).  But NFL Draft Scout lists is velocity as 55 mph.  Supposedly 55 is usually the cutoff for a successful NFL quarterback.  


Who's right?  Well, both of them. I emailed both of them, and from what they say,  the numbers both come directly from the Combine.  However, NFL Draft Scout lists the "peak velocity"  whereas Our Lads lists some sort "average velocity". I'm not sure about the details, but basically what we need to know is that the ball slows down a little as it travels due to air resistance.  It does not travel at constant velocity. Presumably if you throw a wobbly ball, that will slow down more than a tight spiral.  The net is that you have to add about 4 mph to the Ourlads.

Okay, but now let's look at the 2018 numbers from Our Lads.  Are these still the "slow" numbers as in 2017?  If so, they are ridiculously higher in 2018 than 2017.  In the case of Allen, however, they measured his velocity at 66 mph at the Senior Bowl, whereas Our Lads lists it as 62 mph. The 4 mph difference is very similar to the difference between the two 2017 data sets, so quite possibly the Our Lads numbers are still the "average" (lower) numbers.   If so then we should add 4 mph to all the numbers to estimate  the peak velocity.  So let's first  list the numbers from Our Lads


Austin Allen - Arkansas - 53 (left), 54 (right)
Josh Allen - Wyoming - 62 (left), 62 (right)
JT Barrett - Ohio State - 52 (left), 52 (right)
Kurt Benkert - Virginia - 55 (left), 56 (right)
Sam Darnold - Southern Cal - did not throw
Danny Etling - LSU - 54 (left), 56 (right)
Luke Falk - Washington State - 52 (left), 52 (right)
Riley Ferguson - Memphis - 52 (left), 54 (right)
Quinton Flowers - South Florida - 49 (left), 49 (right)
Lamar Jackson - Louisville - 49 (left), 49 (right)
Kyle Lauletta - Richmond - 52 (left), 52 (right)
Tanner Lee - Nebraska - 56 (left), 57 (right)
Chase Litton - Marshall - 53 (left), 55 (right)
Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma - 59 (left), 60 (right)
Josh Rosen - UCLA - 57 (left), 59 (right)
Mason Rudolph - Oklahoma State - 52 (left), 52 (right)
Nic Shimonek - Texas Tech - 55 (left), 55 (right)
Mike White - Western Kentucky - 53 (left), 55 (right)
Logan Woodside - Toledo - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Without adjusting anything, there are 8 guys who throw at the 55 mph threshold or higher:  Allen, Benkert, Darnold, Etling, Lee, Mayfield, Rosen, Shimonek.  Darnold sat out the throwing competition, but I'm putting him on the list because we know darn well that he can. If it is true that we should add the additional 4 mph then  add another 7 guys to the list of faster-than-Trubisky club at 55 mph and above. The All-Time list would be headed by the first four guys from 2018 (Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Tanner Lee). That is hard to believe. Perhaps these guys are not from planet Earth.  

As an engineer, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that  something is different about the way they carried out the tests, and that the numbers are too high.  Perhaps the old radar gun broke and they replaced it with a new model or something like that. Different guns have different readings depending on where they pick up the ball (earlier = faster, later=slower).  

It would be nice if the NFL used a standard, documented test procedure, similar to an ASTM standard (American Society for Testing and Materials).  It takes several thousand dollars to get the method approved, but once it's approved there would be no doubt that the test is reproducible and can be compared from year to year.   



Irrespective of the comparison between conflicting data sets, the eyeball test tell me that nobody in NFL history has ever thrown the ball like Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold.   We have not seen this level of ability in years, if ever.  This quarterback class may be able to smash the records of the fabled 1983 class with Elway, Marino, Kelly and O'Brien.

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