Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Six Quarterbacks to go Round 1 in the 2018 NFL Draft?

     This is an insane year for quarterbacks.  It's very possible that six or maybe even seven quarterbacks are going to be taken in Round 1.  I thought that the Combine would clarify who the top guy is, but probably the top four guys are still very close to one another.  One of them will likely be taken by the Browns first overall.  I still like Josh Allen, but I could easily be wrong.   I would rank them as follows:

Is Josh Allen the top dog in the 2018 draft?  Maybe


1.  Josh Allen.  I still think Allen will be the first overall pick.  His poor numbers at Wyoming are attributable to having a converted point guard and quarterback as his best wide receiver.  When he had a good receiver in 2016 in Tanner Gentry who became a borderline NFL prospect, he hit him for 1300 yards.   But they didn't replace him, and they didn't have running backs to catch high percentage passes either. Plus all winter long I've challenged the folks at Browns Bloggers and Friends group in Facebook, and no one can produce any game film showing Josh Allen's alleged inaccuracy.  No, if he were playing at Oklahoma or USC he would put up big numbers.  There's no such thing as a zero-risk quarterback, but in this case the potential reward is so high that you must accept the risk and draft a quarterback first overall this year.  

2.  Josh Rosen.  Probably the most polished of the group, his arm is close to Allen's.  Watching him launch an accurate bomb 80 yards in the air, it is clear that no one has ever thrown the ball like the quarterback class of 2018. He has size, accuracy and production on his side as well.  There's a legitimate concern about his tendency to put his foot in his mouth at times.   

3. Baker Mayfield.  Two years older than Rosen and a year older than Josh Allen and Sam Darnold, Mayfield is significantly more advanced and could be a Day 1 starter if necessary.  He thinks faster on his feet than the other qbs, and he has plenty of arm strength.  Concerns about his drinking and run-in with the law are real, but not enough to dissuade a team from taking a chance on his obvious on-field talent.  

4.  Sam Darnold.  Sam has an arm comparable to the others, though he does not have the quick release of the other three.  He has more of an elongated delivery, but still he is very strong armed and accurate. He is a year younger than the others, with only two years of college, and he fumbled a lot in college. He'll get better of course. I think that some team will trade up with the Browns  to get him, and qbs could go 1-2-3-4 this year.

5. Mason Rudolph.  A very accurate passer with arm strength probably above Mitchell Trubisky's, who went second overall last year.  He put up huge numbers at Oklahoma State, plus he's bigger than Mitchell, though not as fast.  How can he not be a first round pick?  

6.  Lamar Jackson.  Lamar is an incredible runner and did everything for Louisville the past three years.  His arm is not otherworldly like the top 4, however, and for that reason he might last till the end of Round 1.  Because he gained 1600 yqrds on the ground, there is some thought he should be a receiver or running back.  But, on the other hand, what does DeShaun Watson  do that Lamar cannot?  Lamar is the better runner and has a better arm. He has got to be first round, but because teams are afraid of running qbs due to injury risk, he might be later in Round 1. 
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Somebody like Mike White of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers may be ignored by the media, but the right NFL team might really like him.   

7.  Somebody else.  It's not crazy to think that yet another quarterback will sneak into the first round.  If you like ball velocity, college stats, size, there are some other guys who seem to meet those requirements.  They are not getting much attention, however, as the media is focused on the top guys.  Mike White, Riley Ferguson, Tanner Lee, Kurt Benkert and others come to mind.  Analysts complain about J. T. Barrett's lack of arm strength, but he threw the ball 60 yards once in a spring practice game contest.  That's plenty strong, but in this year's draft, analysts just yawn.  In any case, some team might very well conclude that one of these guys has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback, and take him in the first round.  Put it this way, I'll be very interested to see if the Patriots decide to draft someone to back up Tom Brady.


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