Why a QB Absolutely Has to Be Chosen First in the 2018 NFL Draft

Dude, if you are an NFL GM, you are so not going to draft anyone but a quarterback in at least the first three positions this year.  Why?  Well, let's take you through the proof that today's quarterbacks are unlike anyone we have ever seen before.  Let's first take a look at Aaron Rodgers in college, courtesy of the 2005 College All-Star festivities.  This is a simple drill, throw the ball as far as you can and see where it lands on the turf.  Now watch Aaron heave the rock for an amazing 64 yards, and then 70 yards (but off target).  

At around 3:30, a 22 year old Aaron Rodgers, at the same age as Rosen and Allen, heaves the ball 70 yards.


Ok, got it.  Impressed?  Good.

Well, now let's watch Josh Rosen throw from his own 15 yard line and hit a receiver chest high at about the 4 yard line.  That's a bit more than 80 yards, and it the receiver hadn't caught it, probably it would travel a few more yards before hitting the turf. The press couldn't quite believe it, and in fact they reported this throw as a 60 or 65 yard pass.  But check out the yard markers.  Josh is clearly behind his 15.  The receiver is clearly beyond the opposite 5 yard line. This ball traveled 80 yards in the air, not one inch less, and if the receiver had let it go it would have gone several yards further.  

    This is real. I'm not aware of John Elway or Dan Marino doing something like this (show me the tape, you geezers, before swearing that some old timer could do it). The only conclusion is that this kid can throw a football at least 10 to 15 yards farther than Aaron Rodgers at the same age.  

Go to 1:25 or so...Rosen is definitely throwing from behind his 15 yard line and hits his man beyond the opposite 5 yard line.  Do the math, that's 80 yards.  It's so shocking that the throw is reported in the press as 65 yards because they can't believe he really did that. 

Now, let me remind you that Josh Rosen is thought to have the third best arm in the draft behind Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Sam Darnold didn't throw at the Combine, and in my mind has to slide to fourth best, but he is up there too.  

     This is borne out by velocity measurements at the Combine.  Unfortunately, there is some confusion between average and peak velocity,  as I pointed out in a previous blog, and in 2018 so far only the slower numbers have been reported.  But with that understanding, Josh Allen's peak velocity is best estimated at 66 mph (62 mph average), which is 6 mph faster than the previous high ever recorded (Logan Thomas). The College All-Star game also reports measuring Josh Allen at 66 mph.  Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are also significantly above the previous record.      

   The inescapable conclusion is that these kids throw harder than anyone else has ever thrown before.  Better than Aaron Rodgers for sure.  Has anybody got film of Elway throwing 80 or 90 yards?
    To be sure, a strong arm isn't everything, and many times the guys with the strongest arms don't make it. So check the scouting reports and find out if they have bad decision making or accuracy issues.  Supposedly, the latter problem will hold Josh Allen back.  However, if you check into it, you find out that Josh Allen's best receiver is a converted quarterback who also plays guard on the basketball team. That's his best guy.  I keep on asking for someone to produce game film on Allen showing inaccuracy and no one has sent me any yet.  Anyway, if you don't like Allen, there's Mayfield and Allen who did put up good numbers in college.  Sam Darnold's velocity is unproven, but the eyeball test says he is comparable to Rosen. 

   Now, knowing that you have arms in the draft that are the best in history, better than John Elway, tell me again how you're going to justify taking a running back instead of a quarterback.  How can you have four guys with a better arm than Elway, and you're not going to draft the guy you think is best.  Because what?  You want a running back or a safety?

      That is insane!  There's a reason why quarterbacks get paid twice as much as running backs.  It's very hard to imagine that an NFL GM is going to turn down the opportunity to draft the most talented quarterbacks of all time in order to draft a very good position player such as Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb or Minkah Fitzpatrick.  I think all of them are going to the Pro Bowl soon.  But some of these qbs are headed to the Hall of Fame, and probably more than one.  These guys are going to change the face of the NFL forever.  You cannot pass that up.