Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Updating the Carson Wentz Deal 1 Year Later

   A year later, many Browns fans wish that the team had drafted Carson Wentz.  Wentz has certainly done well for a good Philadelphia team. No question that they got good value by selecting him.
    On the other hand, does that mean he would have been a star for the Browns?  That is a much more difficult question.   It's not clear to me that he would be a star on the Browns with a much lower talent level, and in particular the Browns offensive line caused their quarterbacks to suffer broken bones, concussions and other injuries.  RG3 out once with a shoulder injury, McCown out with a Broken collarbone, Kessler out twice with concussions. Even Clipboard Jesus Charlie Whitehurst was knocked out with a knee injury.   Is that the proper environment to put a very valuable young quarterback in?   Maybe, but I have my doubts. 

      There's usually two or three guys from each class that ultimately have Hall of Fame careers, so if you're going to draft that high, you should get someone that you think is going to be really a top player.  We know Wentz will be a very good starter for years to come, but that is not quite the same as saying he can not be traded at any price.   
     The Browns did get an amazing talent haul for Wentz, and we're not done yet--one more third round pick remains to be identified in 2018.  However, two additional parts of the puzzle were chosen in Jabrill Peppers and DeShone Kizer, in addition to Kessler, Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Ricardo Louis and Derrick  Kindred, for a total of six starters plus backup Spencer Drango.  The complete list is posted below.  It's easy to see how this could add up to a guy as good as Wentz, though that is not the case so far. NONE of the 8 players received for Wentz has become an impact player so far, but that could conceivably change in the next few years.    Put it this way, if the Patriots had drafted from the same position,  they would draft a few guys to get sent to the Pro Bowl, but the Browns may not have the ability to accurately evaluate football talent.   
       The final answer is going to take a few years to decide, but at the moment I would give the Browns an A for trading draft picks, but a D for choosing good players.   
     I still think DeShone Kizer has great talent, but his career would have been better served by staying in school.  2017 should have been his JUNIOR year at Notre Dame, and his rookie NFL year would have been 2019.  Normally his career progression would see him start to establish himself in 2020.  The nonsense of accelerating his development from three years to a few months is simply a delusional fantasy by Coach Jackson.   As far as we know, no one wanted that to happen but the Coach. There is no evidence that you can make a kid grow up faster by throwing him on the field without adequate preparation.  In addition, Cody Kessler never did anything wrong, especially by rookie standards.  He completed 65% of his passes with a good TD/INT ratio despite playing on a lousy team with no pass protection, and was mysteriously dropped. 

         So the jury is still out, but for now it would be fair to say that the clear edge goes to the Eagles.  They got their guy, whereas we have not been able to identify a single star player so far.  

PLAYER/PICKROUNDOVERALL PICKPOSITIONCOLLEGE
Corey Coleman 1 15 WR Baylor
Shon Coleman  3 76 OT Auburn
Cody Kessler 3 93 QB USC
Ricardo Louis 4 114 WR Auburn
Derrick Kindred 3 129 SS TCU
Spencer Drango 4 168 OL Baylor
Jabrill Peppers 1 25 DB Michigan
DeShone Kizer 2 52 QB Notre Dame
2018 NFL Draft Pick (from PHILLY) 3 TBD TBD TBD




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