So what about the 2018 NFL Draft Quarterback Class?

Once again the Browns season is over after Game 8, and us fans look ahead to the NFL draft as the next opportunity for something positive to happen to our pathetic team. 

For some time, I believe that the Browns have looked ahead to the 2018 draft as a likely place to draft a first round quarterback. They didn't buy into Carson Wentz or Mitchell Trubisky as true Franchise Quarterbacks (whatever that means), but the 2018 class has been viewed differently. At the end of 2016, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph in particular looked like brilliant prospects.  Sportswriters were saying this was going to be the best draft since the famous 1983 quarterback class with John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.     

However--as the 2017 season has unfolded, some of the luster has come off as the top quarterbacks have been very good, but not as brilliant as expected.  All of them have turned in a few bad games, and some of their flaws have been exposed. 

Analytics shows that, over time, quarterbacks in the first round are usually (not always, but usually) overvalued.  Teams have done better by taking flyers on guys like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in later rounds, because if you blow it, it's not as painful as blowing a first round pick.

But I suspect that 2018 was perceived to be an exception to the rule, as scouts reportedly were drooling over not just one, but maybe as many as five guys that are regarded as exceptional.   I still think that there are going to be several quarterbacks taken in the first round. Here are my current favorites, but without a great deal of conviction.  Things will change as the season plays out and after the Combines.  

1. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State.  If Rudolph had come out in 2017, I thought he might have been just as good as Mitchell Trubisky, but bigger, stronger (and a little slower).  But he stayed in school, has four legit years of college preparation.  HE is close to NFL ready, unlike Manziel or Kiser with only two years of preparation.   I've seen him make some questionable throws this year for whatever reason, whereas last year he threw very few picks.  

Mason Rudolph is big, strong, smart and has four years of major college ball to prepare for the NFL.  Despite playing for Brandon Weeden University, I believe he may be the first overall pick. 

2. Sam Darnold, USC.  Sam was sensational last year, has size and tons of arm.  However, he hasn't really gotten better as a sophomore, and the scouts are complaining that his release is a little slower than they like to see.   Do you want to take a chance on a kid with only two years of college preparation?  I hope he stays in school, but in my eyes he has more raw talent than Mitchell Trubisky from 2017.  Emphasis on "raw."

Nobody throws the football like Sam Darnold.  However, if he enters the draft this year, he will skip two years of valuable training at USC.  The Browns front office seems to believe that makes no difference, as they drafted both Johnny Manziel and DeShone Kizer after their sophomore year.  

3. Josh Rosen, UCLA.  Rosen along with Darnold has a great arm, and he might be the number one overall pick.  Like Darnold, he has not had the team success that his fans would have liked to see.  He will have had three years of prepping at UCLA versus only two for Darnold at USC.  

Josh Rosen has amazing athletic gifts, but has also had some so-so outings this year, and his team is not in contention for a National Championship. Plus he has a knack for generating controversy in the press.  But I think he will still be drafted very early.  

4. Lamar Jackson.  Jackson is a brilliant runner and has all the tools, but people are worried about his accuracy.  My take is that in his offense he is the number one threat on the ground and in the air, so the defense targets him and he is almost always throwing on the run, partly because he has to because he has no pass protection. Like any quarterback, he's not as accurate while running at full speed. If he had a better O-Line, he would be much more accurate.  I have a first round grade on Mr. Jackson hands down, but may not Top 10.   

Lamar Jackson is a premier talent on an otherwise weak team.  I think he should be forgiven for throwing on the run and losing accuracy, because he has no choice.  

5. Josh Allen, Wyoming. Allen has some support from the scouts based on his throwing ability, size and ability, but he doesn't have superior numbers and has thrown more than his share of INTs.  

​6. Ryan Finley, N.C. State.  Like Mitchell Trubisky last year, he is flying under the radar so far, but some of the sportswriters say he has comparable talent to go with it.  If he does well at the combine he could move up the draft board. Why not?  

7. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma.  Baker has a lot of the brilliant on-field traits of Johnny Manziel, but at the end of the day his arm is probably not as good, and he is smaller than desired.  He can make it in the NFL, but he is not a sure thing.   

8. Luke Falk, Washington State.   Falk also has gaudy stats but gets some negative attention for throwing five picks at Cal.  They also knock him for lack of arm strength.  That doesn't sound like a first round pick, but he has his supporters as a first round guy.