Hue, This is Bad. The Too-Rapid Rise and Fall of DeShone Kizer

Coach, we gotta talk. 

    Oh Coach Jackson, this is a fine mess you've gotten yourself into.   You didn't have to risk your reputation on DeShone Kizer, but that's what you did.  So many people told you not to rush a young quarterback like Kizer into action. No doubt,  he is highly talented, the best combination of size, speed, intelligence and arm strength that the Browns have ever had.  But he's very raw and not very accurate.  He did not put up great numbers at Notre Dame, left school not one but TWO years early.  He did not do well at the combine, having trouble with fundamentals, and he did not do well in preseason (25 for 49, or 52% completion percentage, qbr of 72.7 which is about the level of the league's worst starting quarterback.   It doesn't get better in the regular season when teams start using more complex defensive schemes).  So why start Kizer?  The only reason is that Hue, as a quarterback guru, pronounced him ready to overtake the other candidates, namely Cody Kessler, Brock Osweiler, and Kevin Hogan.

That was a very surprising decision, and I'm not second guessing him.  Check out my blog. Preseason Predictions Village Elliot, where I predicted exactly what would happen.  Not that I'm a great prognosticator, and many others had the same opinion, which is precisely the point.  This was a freakishly weird decision to start Kizer.  

There are two basic methodologies for developing a quarterback, as shown in the accompanying table.  The method on the left is used by the rest of the NFL.  The method on the right is being pioneered by the Cleveland Browns. 

TWO METHODS FOR DEVELOPING QUARTERBACKS.

The Browns had some decent results with Cody Kessler,  who put up some numbers in his 2016 rookie year:  65% completion average, 6 Tds versus only 2 INTs, and qb rating of 92.5, which is one of the highest in team history.  But he doesn't have the superstar potential every team looks for.  He's slow, takes too many sacks and he's not that big.  Still, there is every expectation that he would be allowed to continue his development, with Kizer taking the year to learn the offense as the third string quarterback. 

Nobody would have complained if Hue had elected to start Kessler, at least as long as the team has a shot for the playoffs.  Give the rookie time to learn the playbook, while the veteran tries to get the team in the playoffs. Even Kessler has less than a full year of experience, and would be considered a young developmental quarterback in all other organizations, but for the Browns 8 starts signifies late middle age for a quarterback.  If the Browns were to fall out of contention by midseason, that would be the time to start an inexperienced rookie.    But Hue didn't do that, proclaiming that there was no need for additional studying, Kizer was ready to be the Game One starter.  

Now, with the Browns at 0-4 and effectively out of the playoff hunt, it actually makes sense to start a rookie, even if he is the worst quarterback in the league.   Maybe it will accelerate his development so that he is actually effective in 2018.  But instead, Hue is shaken up and has lost confidence in the rookie, realizing that he has blown any chance of even pretending to contend in the AFC North. 


Honestly, I suspected that the plan was to find out if Kizer can be a so-called "Franchise Quarterback," that mythological beast that makes the Pro Bowl every year and takes the team to the Playoffs.  If we go 1-15 again, then Sashi will get the number one draft pick again, take the consensus number one quarterback in the 2018 draft, which is supposedly loaded with top prospects (my favorite is Mason Rudolph,  Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield to name a few). 

But now Hue is 1-24 and is leery about going down in history as the losingest Head Coach in NFL history.  Maybe he's not okay to finish last in the NFL again to get better draft picks.  Maybe he and Sashi are feeling the heat from the Haslams, who have to be losing millions of dollars while his athletes lose games Maybe he now wants to sit down the immature Kizer, as he should have from the get-go.  

As I see it Hue staked his reputation on Kizer. Unless Sashi ordered him to do it to get draft picks, Hue didn't need to promote Kizer, but that's what he did.  If he comes up empty, it means that he is not the quarterback guru we thought he was.  In fact, he looks rather silly, especially in light of flamboyant play calls that bombed versus the Jets. 

Hue might be gone before you know it. 

POST SCRIPT

While i'm on the subject of people being gone, I wonder if Sashi Brown can avoid the temptation to trade Joe Thomas or Isaiah Crowell or others to get more drat picks?  At the beginning of the year I figured four games under .500 would be the threshold to get rid of additional veteran players.  For what it's worth.