Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Browns WRs in 2017 Struggled. How Bad was It?

Corey Coleman had a shot to keep the Browns' last drive alive last year, but came up short, sending them to their 16th loss of the season. 

      Looking back on the infamous 2017 Cleveland Browns season, one of the most painful subjects is the wide receivers.  I'm actually an optimist about the Browns.  You might not have recognized that last year when I had the audacity to suggest that they were only a four win team, much of it due to weakness at the wide receiver position.  
   "Four wins?  Kennel, have you flipped your lid?  Hey, they signed Kenny Britt!  Plus young prospects like speedy Corey Coleman, Ricardo Louis and Hollywood Higgins!  Victories are assured!"   
   Well, that's not what happened.  They were even worse than I imagined.  Corey Coleman broke the same hand he injured last year, and never showed an ability to catch the ball, though he is fast and elusive with the ball. 
    The table provides a few stats about how bad they were, but in reality does not begin to tell the full story.


Wide Receivers Catch Percentage and PFF Ranking.  
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    In terms of catch percentage (balls caught divided by targets), they were epic underperformers. The Browns did have Hollywood Higgins catching more than half his chances, but all the other wideouts were under 50 percent. Frankly this is incredible. The table shows their rank according to percentile both for Catch percentage as well as their overall ranking by Pro Football Focus.  Not that PFF is always right, and I doubt whether the Browns get the same level of attention as other teams, but at least they made the effort. 

  PFF's ranking is based on 116 WRs in the NFL which is essentially three starters per team, plus 20 extra top extra wide receivers.
   The catch percentage stat is based on a different pool from Pro Football Reference, because they include tight ends and running backs, resulting in a total pool of 212 players.  So I used a percentile basis.  So, for example, PFF ranks Josh Gordon as 83rd percentile meaning that 83% of the group is not as good as him.  Conversely, his catch percentage 2.8 percentile means only 2.8% of the group was worse. 
     Josh did see a lot of double coverage and did not have a very accurate qb throwing passes his way, but I wonder if his ranking by PFF might be a bit generous. How could you be 83rd percentile in overall performance if you're one of the poorest performers at catching the ball?   

     But no matter how you slice it, the rest of the Browns wide receivers struggled to catch the ball, and the guys at PFF were not very impressed.  It would be very hard to conceive that a guy ranked 12th percentile (i.e., Corey Coleman) could be an NFL starter.  Catching fewer than 40% of the balls thrown his way is just an amazing stat and not in a good way.  Corey will either improve or a new starter will be found.  
     You can blame some of the problem on young quarterback DeShone Kizer, but tight ends David Njoku and Seth DeValve plus halfback/slot Duke Johnson had respectable stats with the same quarterback.  Wide receivers just really did have a difficult time in 2017.  
     Kenny Britt actually was sent away last year, but it would not be surprising to see the other Browns receivers pushed for their jobs in 2018.   
     

Hooray for Hollywood!  Rashard Higgins caught a few footballs in 2018 but is considered by PFF to be in the bottom 5% of the NFL.  Ouch. 



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