Sunday, April 8, 2018

Tracking Josh Allen's Worst Game in 2017 vs Oregon: Was He Inaccurate or Not?

Why didn't Josh Allen complete more passes against the Oregon Ducks? 

     I've been very interested in determining whether to agree with the popular assessment that Josh Allen is a strong armed but inaccurate passer.  Accordingly, I've asked for readers to cite examples of inaccuracy on game film, but so far none have emerged.    

     I don't have a vested interest one way or the other.  I'm an amateur at this, not a Pro, and I don't claim to be a good talent evaluator.  Nevertheless I wanted to from my own opinion on Allen's accuracy or lack of it.   
     Elsewhere, I've documented that the Cowboys team was depleted in offense in 2017, as 4800 yards of total offense (receiving and rushing yards) graduated after 2016.  See   Why Josh Allen's Low Completion Percentage Does Not Matter

     That's their best two wide receivers, tight end and running back, so the 2017 crew was very, very thin. Their best guy is a converted quarterback who seems to be a good athlete, but he is just learning the position.  

      Anyway, I looked at the worst game of Josh Allen's career, a 49-13 drubbing by Oregon last Sept 16 2017.  Allen's stat line was 9 for 24 for 64 yards and an INT.  Wow, that was horrible, 37.5% completion percentage.  So Josh must be horribly inaccurate, right? 
    I went through and cataloged each pass from the video record and tabulated the results below including one extra pass that was called back due to penalty.  I saw passes hit receivers in the hands and bounce off.  I saw receivers fall down and others run the wrong route.  I saw receivers covered, and the ball thrown out of bounds to avoid a sack. Look, the stats suck.  But I didn't see much inaccuracy. Maybe one pass that was clearly overthrown, and a few others that were higher than desirable but catchable.  Is that the reason we are going to turn down an opportunity to draft a guy who throws the ball better than John Elway?   
   No.  Maybe a scout can determine that Allen makes bad decisions, doesn't go through his progressions well or has no touch.  I don't know about that.  But the accuracy narrative is not what the film says. 
    As previously noted, the Wyoming team graduated 4800 yards of offense after the 2016 season, with corresponding stars to replace the players they lost. Moreover, they are an FBS team playing a Pac 12 team.  So of course they are going to be totally ouclassed, at least at that early point of the season.  To put it bluntly, the receivers couldn't get open and they couldn't catch.  
    Given that the 2016 Cowboys had four guys on offense that made NFL rosters.  Maybe a better question is why Josh didn't put up better numbers in 2016 with all that talent. He also threw 15 INTs in 2016 verus 6 in 2017.  Maybe he wasn't very good in 2016.  To me the data suggests that he really did get a lot better in 2017, even though the stats show the opposite.  
    Maybe someone else can find some other game films where Josh misses several open receivers.  I invite you to do so and publish the results.  Until we see the evidence, however, I disbelieve the inaccuracy narrative.  It's easy to read the stats and note that sub-60% accuracy is not very good.  But I strongly suspect that the writers claiming Allen is inaccurate just didn't watch much film.  Just look at the tally below.  For these reasons I believe Josh Allen is the no-brainer first pick of the 2018 draft.  


   

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