The Cleveland Browns were not build to win in 2017. They were built to get draft picks, draft position and salary cap. So while they were the worst in the NFL on the field, they will dominate the 2018 off season, for what it's worth. The Browns will be the team that adds the most talent via Free Agency, and they will also be the team that adds the most talent via the Draft.
So, I come up with about $35 Million, which is the amount of money that can realistically be used to sign new players. That's enough to afford 2 or 3 very good players. I believe they will sign a veteran, probably A. J. McCarron, and likely they will draft a qb as well.
Does that mean that they will be a good team? I think they will have playoff caliber personnel, but with no experience at how to win. The computer doesn't realize that that is a problem, but my feeling is that it may take quite some time to develop a winning culture in Cleveland.
Tanking is becoming a new fashion in the NFL, as bad teams realize that there is a payoff for being really bad. Conventional theory (developed by Brandt & Schramm of the Cowboys 25 years ago) is that the first overall pick is worth three times the mid-first round picks. So cut some expensive talent, make sure that you are awful and in theory you get much better personnel for the next few years. The Browns took that to an extreme by getting rid of players who were still very viable and paring down the salary cap to among the lowest in the NFL. Meantime they accumulated draft picks, including the fourth overall pick from the Texans, and 36th overall from the Texans.
Other tanking teams included the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets, both of whom have accumulated draft picks and salary cap space. On paper, the 49ers seem to have a smaller payroll than the Browns. But, they have to sign Jimmy Garoppolo and they are potentially losing 18 players to free agency, representing 2017 salaries of $21 Million. If they franchise tag Garoppolo ($21 Million dollars at least in 2018, compared to his 2017 salary of $871 thousand). Plus, don't you think they should leave some money to sign draft choices? All told, they need to spend about $50 million dollars just to stay even. Their net payroll will probably go up about $25 million dollars.
The Jets are in a similar situation, having to replace departing players currently earning $25 Million.
The Jets are in a similar situation, having to replace departing players currently earning $25 Million.
The Browns are losing only three: Isaiah Crowell, backup OL Marcus Martin and backup DL Lavar Edwards, total 2017 salaries less than $5 million dollars. Frankly, I don't think Marcus and Lavar are going to be able to make the team.
Forget about the inflated "total cap room" which is the maximum possible money a team can spend, meaning they sign no draft choices, re-sign none of their departing veterans, and use all of their saved-up carryover money this year. That's totally unrealistic.
Forget about the inflated "total cap room" which is the maximum possible money a team can spend, meaning they sign no draft choices, re-sign none of their departing veterans, and use all of their saved-up carryover money this year. That's totally unrealistic.
The real stat you need is the "expected salary differential" or the estimated amount of money that will be added to the previous year's payroll, after replacing departing free agents, and includes a budget for draft choices, and paying off "dead money." Carryover salary cap should is not included, because that is unlikely to be spent unless the team is a playoff contender. "Carryover" money is like the team's savings account, usually not spent unless there is an emergency.
Cleveland Browns:
Base cap...........................................................+ $178 Million
Active Player salaries.......................................- $117 Million
Departing player salaries to be replaced..........- $ 5 Million
Dead money (inactive players)........................- $ 10 Million
Draft pick salaries (13)....................................- $ 18 Million
Value of players replaced by draft pic (13).....+$ 7 Million
Value of players replaced by draft pic (13).....+$ 7 Million
Net differential..............................................+$ 35 Million
So, I come up with about $35 Million, which is the amount of money that can realistically be used to sign new players. That's enough to afford 2 or 3 very good players. I believe they will sign a veteran, probably A. J. McCarron, and likely they will draft a qb as well.
Does that mean that they will be a good team? I think they will have playoff caliber personnel, but with no experience at how to win. The computer doesn't realize that that is a problem, but my feeling is that it may take quite some time to develop a winning culture in Cleveland.
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