It might be that Undrafted Free Agents (UDFAs) are worth more than a seventh round draft pick. What? How can that be, you may ask, since the seventh round pick is chosen ahead of all the undrafted players?
Well, hear me out. AN NFL team adds about ten undrafted guys upon conclusion of the NFL draft. That number is a little imprecise because teams rapidly cut players and other teams re-sign them tried to figure out. But the talent pool is roughly 320 players, give or take.
Forbes Success rate vs draft position
Well, hear me out. AN NFL team adds about ten undrafted guys upon conclusion of the NFL draft. That number is a little imprecise because teams rapidly cut players and other teams re-sign them tried to figure out. But the talent pool is roughly 320 players, give or take.
I found a 2014 article by Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette Free agent numbersthat says that 64 players made the opening day roster, or two per NFL team. That's about 2 per team out of 10 candidates. There's a 20% success rate for UFA, but 7th rounders are not a 100% but I hardly ever hear of a draft pick failing to make the roster. So let's say the typical NFL team roster has 1 (new) seventh round guy, and 2 new UFA's.
But how many of those are actually good players? To answer that question, I rely on a small study by Forbes Magazine (Patrick Wishe via RIchard Thaler) and tells where NFL starters came from circa 2014. Using 60% as a crude estimate for the probability that a round 1 draftee becomes a starter, I estimate the success rate for other rounds as being scaled back from 60% by the number of starting players from each round, divided by the number of starters from Round 1. That is,
So I added a column to the table that estimates what the chances are in each round for getting a player who becomes a starter during his career.
Note that only about 8.4% of NFL starters come from Round 7. Yet three times as many come from UDFAs. How can that be? Probably it's because you get to audition about ten guys, and usually pick about 2 for the 53 man roster. So even if the average talent level is lower, you get to identify the standouts in Training Camp. On the other hand, teams almost never cut the seventh round pick in Year 1, so like it or not you're stuck with him. Put another way, you have a roster spot that is 92% likely not to produce a starter. For your two UDFAs, there is a 27% chance that your guy eventually becomes a starter. That's about the same as Round 3! Again, it's not because the talent level is so high, it's because you get 10 chances and weed out 8 of the 10 during summer camp.
It's a small data set, and the definitions and categories need to be more rigidly quantified before reaching a definite conclusion. But it appears that the roster spot occupied by the seventh round draft choice may be less productive, on the average, than the roster spots occupied by UDFAs. The reason is that ten players compete for two roster spots for UDFAs, whereas the 7th round draft pick is usually given a roster spot without having to compete for it. Hmm.
For further review:But how many of those are actually good players? To answer that question, I rely on a small study by Forbes Magazine (Patrick Wishe via RIchard Thaler) and tells where NFL starters came from circa 2014. Using 60% as a crude estimate for the probability that a round 1 draftee becomes a starter, I estimate the success rate for other rounds as being scaled back from 60% by the number of starting players from each round, divided by the number of starters from Round 1. That is,
Success Rate = 60%*(number of nth round starters)/(number of 1st round starters).
So I added a column to the table that estimates what the chances are in each round for getting a player who becomes a starter during his career.
| Source of Players | Number of Starters | Success Probability |
| Round 1 | 178 | 60.0% |
| Round 2 | 105 | 35.4% |
| Round 3 | 75 | 25.3% |
| Round 4 | 64 | 21.6% |
| Round 5 | 38 | 12.8% |
| Round 6 | 29 | 9.8% |
| Round 7 | 25 | 8.4% |
| UDFA per tryout spot (10) | 81 | 2.7% |
| UDFA per 53 roster spot (2) | 81 | 13.7% |
| UDFA total | 81 | 27.3% |
Note that only about 8.4% of NFL starters come from Round 7. Yet three times as many come from UDFAs. How can that be? Probably it's because you get to audition about ten guys, and usually pick about 2 for the 53 man roster. So even if the average talent level is lower, you get to identify the standouts in Training Camp. On the other hand, teams almost never cut the seventh round pick in Year 1, so like it or not you're stuck with him. Put another way, you have a roster spot that is 92% likely not to produce a starter. For your two UDFAs, there is a 27% chance that your guy eventually becomes a starter. That's about the same as Round 3! Again, it's not because the talent level is so high, it's because you get 10 chances and weed out 8 of the 10 during summer camp.
It's a small data set, and the definitions and categories need to be more rigidly quantified before reaching a definite conclusion. But it appears that the roster spot occupied by the seventh round draft choice may be less productive, on the average, than the roster spots occupied by UDFAs. The reason is that ten players compete for two roster spots for UDFAs, whereas the 7th round draft pick is usually given a roster spot without having to compete for it. Hmm.
Forbes Success rate vs draft position
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