2019 BRowns Stats, misc

Player	Position	2019 cap charge
Damarious Randall	S	$9,069,000
Greg Robinson	T	$6,400,000
Drew Stanton	QB	$3,250,000
Rashard Higgins	WR	$2,025,000
Joe Schobert	LB	$ 743,489
Eric Murray	FS	$ 741,826
Juston Burris	WR	$720,000
Justin McCray	G	$645,000

*multiyear contracts can be discounted in Year 1.

*multiyear contracts can be discounted in Year 1.

Player	Position	2019 cap charge
Damarious	Randall	$9,069,000
Eve	Jackson	94

Browns Pro Football Focus

Pythagorean Win Percentage Slightly Favors Patriots in the Super Bowl

The Pythagorean win percentage is calculated based on points versus opponents points.  Game-to-game variation is all over the place but over the course of a season  you might try to find a trend.  It doesn't prove anything, and I wouldn't place a bet because of it, but the Patriots have gotten better as the season has gone on, and the Rams started out truly dominant, but are not quite as one-sided as the season has gone on.  Of course, they are also playing better teams in the playoffs.  

So both teams are pretty good, no doubt, but this simple form of analysis is consistent with the Las Vegas opinion that the Patriots might deserve to be a slight favorite.  

The Patriots have been getting better as the season has gone on. 

The Rams are a very good team, but were more dominant at the beginning of the year, and less so towards the end of the year . 

  

The Rams are a very good team, but were more dominant at the beginning of the year, and less so towards the end of the year .

Browns rreceiving Stats Miscellany

Rams/Saints No-Call May Not be the Fault of the Officials

The Rams/Saints playoff game ended with a blatant non-call of Defensive Pass Interference when Nickell Robey-Coleman  plowed Tommylee Lewis with a good solid helmet-to-helmet hit.  Yet pass interference was not called.  They also could have called blatant helmet-to-helmet contact and that wasn't called either.You can watch the No-Call of the century with NFL Game Pass:  https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019012000/2018/POST3/rams@saints

Saints fans might feel better if the NFL fires the officials.  But that is too easy and does not solve the problem.  

First, let's be clear that there is no dispute, none whatsoever, that the non-call was an error.  But what the media has not done a good job of pointing out, is that although both pass interference and helmet-to-helmet are blatant on instant replay, the officials were not watching through the TV camera. 

Look where the Head Linesman and Side Judge are positioned and ask what they can actually see from their positions.  

Though I am far from an expert on officiating, as far as I know the Side Judge is supposed to make the call, and he is correctly positioned, downfield and a few yards out of bounds.

To make a correct call, the side judge would have to see, with his own two eyes from where he was positioned, the following:  

a.  Pass interference.  Did the defender interfere with the pass?

b.  Catchable ball.  Was the ball thrown such that the receiver had a legitimate possibility to catch the pass?

c.  Helmet to helmet.  If there is no pass interference, was there helmet to helmet contact?

From the replay, we know that all three questions were yes, yes and yes.  But the side judge was in good position only to see one out of three factors.  


From where he is positioned he should have clearly seen the  Robey Coleman hit Lewis eons before the ball gets there.  

But does the Side Judge think the ball is catchable or not?  That is less obvious. The ball was thrown behind the receiver.  From the vantage point of the replay camera, it looks like it was a make-able catch.  But the side judge has the wrong angle to determine how far behind the runner the ball lands.  He could easily have thought the ball was less catchable than it was.

So, probably the Side Judge saw definitely that the defender got there too early, but might not have seen if the ball was catchable (not to mention the fact that the NFL rule book does not define catchable).  

Other officials were probably in position to see that the ball was catchable, but there is no mechanism to communicate that information to the Side Judge.  You only have a conference if someone throws a flag, and the Side Judge did not throw his based on what he saw, and the other officials apparently did not want to overrule a perfectly positioned Side Judge. That protocol may need to be reviewed. 

Well okay, if the Side Judge did not have the angle to rule on uncatchable ball, what about helmet to helmet?  Well, here again, TV had the perfect angle and the Side Judge did not.  Even though in this case it was a solid hit, the sides of the helmets collide rather than a head-on collision, and neither the Side Judge nor the Head Linesman are in good position to see the point of contact.  

Really the TV camera had the perfect angle to see the play, and the TV camera is not used to assess a penalty.  That is the real problem.

The announcers did not do a very good job of analyzing the no call.   Yes it should have been a penalty. The reason why it was missed was probably not incompetence of the official, but was more probably due to the lack of positioning to see "catchable ball" and "helmet-to-helmet" in this case.   

To get that call right the NFL flatly has to have the TV camera to see it.  Firing the official might make people feel better, but very likely there needs to be a rule change.  The NFL Rules Committee will have to look at how it impacts the game overall.  Not every call is blatantly blown like that, so drawing the line between confirming and overturning is not simple.  My gut feeling, however,  is that some form of challenge will be put in place soon.  

It is understandable that Saints fans are upset and want to get a do-over for the game, but that is not going to happen.  Improving the rule might make them feel better, but what is done is done.  We need to cut the official some slack, and the ball should be in the court of the NFL Rules Committee.  

Why Sam Darnold's NFL Debut is a Shock

Sam Darnold's debut is not the norm for 21 year olds (Jose Juarez / AP).

   Sam Darnold won his first game in the NFL.  What's unusual about that is that he is only 21 years old. Rookies who start their first game before their 22nd birthday are usually terrible. The record for wins that first season is six (Jameis Winston and David Woodley).
     The list below is for every QB who had his first start before his 22nd birthday, and shows the QB's won-loss record in that year.   There were three QBs who had winning records as a 21 year old rookie:  Woodley at 6-5, Jacky Lee at 2-1, and Jack Concannon at 1-0.  That's it.  The table below shows the won-lost record for the rookie year of every qb who made their first start at age 21. It's pretty grim, so if you are faint of heart, you might not want to look. 

        These days, players can enter the NFL as underclassmen, so the 21 year old qb is a little more common now.  Back in the old days, the only guys who could enter the NFL at age 21 were those who skipped a grade in elementary school or something like that.  

    Some qbs have won their first game, but not very many. Fran Tarkenton had a fantastic start, throwing four TDs and running for another.  But he went 1-8 the rest of the season.  The future Hall of Famer had to struggle for a while before his career took off.  

      Woodley is the outlier, actually having a decent year at 6-5 for a good Dolphins team. Kosar managed to start a playoff game in his rookie year, though the Browns lost it.  

      Hence Darnold's victorious start is a bit of an anomaly. After emulating his idol Brett Favre by throwing a pick-6 in his very first pass, he settled down and finished 16 for 21 for 198 yards and 2 TDs.  Most importantly, the Jets won the game 48-17 over the Lions, who played like kittens.
       We'll see how well Darnold does later on.  The fact that he simply won a game is impressive in his own right.
       The Cleveland Browns have done this experiment three times, with Bernie Kosar, Johnny Manziel and DeShone Kizer.  Kosar grew up to be a star, whereas Manziel was out of the league after two tumultuous seasons.
       It should be obvious that a 21 year old is too young to base an evaluation on that first year. Going down the list below, several of the 21 year olds went on to become Pro Bowlers and even a Hall of Famer in the case of Tarkenton.
       That's why I was down on the decision to start Darnold and very surprised that he won.  I would have much rather started Josh McCown until such time as the team falls out of contention, and only then consider starting the rookie. 
     21 year old quarterbacks are like your little brother.  They might grow up and surprise you later on, but for now they are easy to beat up, fall for your tricks and generally not that bright.  They might be more formidable in a few years but for now they are usually not that tough.  

Rookie W-L Records for 21 year old QBs since 1960.