Why Cut the Backup Quarterback?

     The Cleveland Browns, like many other historically under-performing teams, love to cut the backup quarterback every year. 

      Weak front office personnel fear public opinion and especially the dreaded "quarterback controversy."  Hence the tendency is to avoid the problem by simply getting rid of the backup, hoping that the new starter will become a superstar. 

     But all too often teams need a backup because the starter gets injured.  In the case of the Browns, a ridiculous number of quarterbacks in the league are former Browns including:

    Brian Hoyer, Houston
    Brandon Weeden, Dallas
    Colt McCoy, Redskins
    Derek Anderson, Panthers 
    Bruce Gradkowski, Steelers
    Josh Johnson, Bengals
    Luke McCown, Saints
    Jason Campbell, free agent. 

    Browns fans won't like me saying this, but we need to take a cue from the Steelers on this issue.   They managed to keep Charlie Batch employed for 8 years.  Though not a superstar, he won  6 games as a starter and lost only three.   That's about the same winning percentage as Ben Roethlisber, by the way.     

 Charley Batch played with the Steelers for 8 years and had a 6-3 record as a starter.  Hey, he was good enough to win!

     Heck, the Browns rarely have a winning record with their starter, never mind the backup.  But in past years they have needed backup quarterbacks after letting the starter get pounded by defensive lines.   Perhaps by now things might be a little more solid with Pro Bowlers Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, as well as up and coming Joel Bitonio and Cameron Erving plus established pros Mitchell Schwartz and John Greco.   Still, you never know when you might need a backup quarterback, so here's hoping they don't jettison Johnny Manziel, Thad Lewis or Connor Shaw.  Assuming Shaw can clear waivers, he would be eligible to return to the practice squad, allowing Thad Lewis to make the 53-man roster.   

     I would like the Browns to go for the best guy available. This means the front office has to be strong enough to endure the criticism that will inevitably result.  Qbs tend to peak after 3-4 years with the same team rather than the 1 year audition that they normally get.   

A Review of Everybody Fumbles by Earnest Byner

  Everybody Fumbles by Earnest Byner is ostensibly a book about playing football.   Earnest is known to many Browns fans as the guy who fumbled in the AFC Championship game, and thereafter was unfairly criticized as the man who cost the Browns a Super Bowl victory.  

    The fact of the matter is that Byner's TD would have merely tied the game, and there was still the matter of containing John Elway and the Broncos, never mind the problem of facing the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XXIV.  Joe Montana and the 49ers rang up 55 points on the Broncos, so I don't have the feeling that they would have been easy pickings for the Browns,  But no matter, many Browns fans are convinced it was Earnest's complete fault that we didn't win that Super Bowl, and probably every one thereafter.  

   This then, is a book from a famous NFL player who knew great adversity and failure, yet one who was able to someone rise above it and win a Super Bowl ring with the Washington Redskins.  Hence I tend to listen to what he has to say.  He is a very special person.

   The format of the book is a series of short narratives, an average of two pages. It's easy reading, but still intellectually stimulating. Mostly the narratives deal with an aspect of being a pro athlete; for example, suggests to improve preparation for games, mental discipline and focus.   Hence I would strongly recommend this to any person wanting to play the game of football at a higher level. A junior high student would not have difficulty in picking this up.  

The story of Earnest Byner has a happy resolution, as he was a key member of the Washington team which won Super Bowl XXVI in 1992.     

   The principles of focus, dedication, visualization and others apply not only to football but to any worthwhile endeavor.  Some people may enjoy smooth sailing for their entire careers, but for most of us there are going to be upsets, battles, frustrations...and fumbles.   You need to be mentally tough and prepared in order to get through it.  

   To cite a personal example, one time I met an engineer, who frankly told me, "I got a guy killed one time.  He died in an accident.  I had told the company that that type of accident was impossible to occur, but it happened."    

    Talk about a fumble!  Mr. Byner, you were playing a kid's game.  This fellow was involved in life and death situations, and lost.  I can't imagine how he recovered, and as far as I know he never returned to the business of safety assessments, but did return to the profession of engineering and thermodynamic cycle analysis.   One of the most humble people that I have ever met.  I don't think he will ever get over the mistake he made, but somehow he was able to get to the point where life could go on despite his failure.

    That's the kind of difficult times that life often throws at us.   In some way, someone like Earnest can help coach us through difficult times.   Thus this book is not only excellent for your sports-minded youngsters, but also for Mom and Pop in the workaday world.   

    Yeah, everybody fumbles.  But Earnest tells us how to get up from those fumbles and go on to win Super Bowls.

GO FOR IT! My Proposed Rule Change for Kicking: No Ties via Extra Points.

   My proposal for the NFL is to modify the extra point rule as follows:   Force teams to go for the lead rather than the tie.   NFL players, and more importantly to the NFL, the networks, hate tie games and indeterminate game lengths.  They also think that two point conversions might be more exciting than the boring one point kicks.  So how about not allowing teams to kick for a one point conversion when they are behind by one point?  Instead, make them go for  two points and either take the lead or fail and fall behind.  

The NFL is concerned that the Extra Point is boring, and teams have too many tie games at the end of regulation.  So what does the NFL do?  Allow the Extra Point to create more tie games.  


So, suppose one team scores a TD and kicks the extra point.   They go up 7-0.  Now the other team marches down the field and they score a touchdown making it 7-6.  Now, however, they are not allowed to go for a one point conversion.  They have to go for two so that at the end of the play it is either 8-7 or 7-6 but it is not a tie.  Similarly, I wouldn't let teams tie the game in the second half with a field goal.  Go for the Hail Mary, a way more exciting play than watching some soccer guy kick the darn thing.  Going for a TD or two point conversion is much more exciting and decisive, as the strategy of playing for a tie is not only boring, but contrary to the desires of players and friends who want to go for the win. 
   
This is going to greatly reduce the possibility of tie games, which is what the NFL says they want to do.    You could still have tie games, but they would be much less frequent.  

Why Did the Browns Offense fall apart in 2014?

    The Browns started off the 2014 season playing at a high level on offense and defense.  But by the end of the year, the Browns faltered badly, especially an offense as they seemed to lose the ability to move the ball.   Much of it was simply injury related, as the Browns lost Pro Bowl Center Alex Mack. But in my opinion, Mack's situation was made worse by odd personnel decisions at the end of training camp.  This and other disfunctions can be traced to a disfunction between Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan and General Manager Ray Farmer.  The upshot was that the team was short of personnel and Shanahan was unable to compensate for the loss of a star player.  

  First let's review what went right.     The fact is that the Offense was very formidable early in the year, with Joe Thomas, newcomer Joel Bitonio and Alex Mack all playing at or near Pro Bowl level.  On the right side, John Greco and Mitchell Schwartz also played well,  The offensive line seemed to thrive on Shanahan's zone blocking schcme.  

    Early on, opposing defenses thought they could challenge the Browns by playing 8 man fronts all day long, daring Hoyer to throw deep.  Well, Hoyer was able to hit  Taylor Gabriel and  Andrew Hawkins with the deep ball, with Miles Austin proving to be a reliable possession receiver and Jordan Cameron also disrupting defenses foolish enough to stay in 8 man fronts too long.   All three running backs excelled on the ground, including starter Ben Tate and the two rookies, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.   However, the Browns rarely threw to the running backs.

    One of the most peculiar roster moves was almost completely gutting the offensive line deptch at the end of training camp, cutting  Reid Fragel, Garrett Gilkey, Donald Hawkins, Alex Parsons, Abasi Salimu and Martin Wallace.  Only Paul McQuistan survived, probably because he had guaranteed money.   My guess is that Offensive Coordinator Shanahan may have asked for the purge, frustrated by the inability of less talented players to pick up his complex blocking schemes.

    Everything fell apart when Center Alex Mack  broke his leg.  The Browns, having cut all of their backup linemen, had only Paul McQuistan ready to play, and he was ineffective.   By Game 8, they switched to newcomer Nick McDonald at center, followed soon by Ryan Seymour.   But the offensive line never regained its early season form.

"Look out, Brian!"  The Browns O-Line was much less effective after the injury to Alex Mack, partly because all the backup linemen except Paul McQuistan had been purged at the end of training camp.

    The Browns also lost confidence in Ben Tate, and shockingly released him in mid-season.   Ben is a very good player, and was always lobbying for more playing time.  This kind of "bad attitude" I am totally ok with it.  Nevertheless, the Browns seemingly couldn't tolerate it, and coupled with his declining performance after a hot start, Tate was gone by mid November.   The Browns kind of got away with this because of the emergence of West and Crowell, but in my opinion Shanahan probably forced Farmer's hand to get rid of the admittedly underperforming Tate.  

    Yet another oddity is that GM Ray Famer was known to be high on running back Glenn Winston, who destroyed defenses in pres-season for the 49ers, and was one of their last players cut.   Yet the number of carries that he could obtain in the Shanahan offense?  Zero.   Especially in an offense that could not move the ball the last five games of the year it is preposterous to think that the guy wasn't worth a carry or two.  No, the signs point squarely to a feud between Shanahan and Farmer, with Shanahan forcing a number of questionable personnel decisions and then not being able to compensate when his starters went down.    

Kyle Shanahan refused to play Glenn Winston at running back, probably to show Farmer who's boss.

Eventually Miles Austin was injured and replaced by Josh Gordon, returning from a drug suspension.  Gordon was just not the same player as he was before the suspension.  The 2014 Gordon was out of shape,  flabby and did not learn the playbook.  He was just a shadow of his former self, and not nearly able to replace Austin.

In turn, Hoyer cooled off and was unable to rally the troops.  He eventually finished the year as the 31st highest ranked quarterback in the NFL.  The talented but drug infested Johnny Manziel started two games and made a fool of himself before giving way to an unspectacular Connor Shaw.  

Clearly the Browns were talented at first string, but when injuries hit they had no answer.  Shanahan was brilliant at designing plays for the first string but could not deal with lesser talents.  In particular, they gutted the team of backup offensive linemen, and then the team fell apart when they had no trained backup linemen.   Certainly that was their own fault.  To the extent that Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan contributed to this dysfunctional offense, it is probably a good thing that he has left the team.  

No Capital Punishment for Deflategate

    I don't think the NFL will do much about Deflategate.   The reason is that the NFL is guilty of a few things also.

    First and foremost, they have a rule but no punishment associated with it.  What kind of rule is that?   If they had wanted to "send a strong message" as many have suggested, they should have said what the penalty was going to be.  

        Second, the NFL did not log the pressure of the balls prior to the game.  If 12.5 psi is so important to people, they ought to measure it to see if the pressure is right.  Moreover they need to decide how they are going to measure it, with what pressure gauge and so on, or otherwise they will get different answers depending on who does the measurement.  Two officials made measurements at the Indianapolis game, and they differed by as much as 0.4 psi.   That's okay for inflating tires, but if 12.5 psi is really some cherished number to fans, they need more accuracy.   

        Third, the NFL was completely unprepared to enforce the rule. They had no procedure in place what to do.  Basically, the officials just said, "well, that's interesting," and sent the matter back to headquarters.  In baseball, if a pitcher is caught doctoring the baseball, they throw him out of the game on the spot.    In this case, they were unprepared for anything other than to let Brady continue to play while they referred the issue to the Commissioner's office later.  That little fiasco is on the NFL.  

     Fouth,  what is normal to expect after a bunch of 300 pound guys fall on the darn thing? If the pressure were to decrease in a ball during the game, what action do we want the officials to take?  

        Fifth, nobody has any idea whether other NFL teams have violated ball-related regs.  They just have not paid attention.  Again, that is the NFL's fault.

      Thus,  I think if I were the NFL commissioner I would do two things:

        First, thanks to the Patriots proving that teams can not be trusted, there now needs to be a layer of regulation and oversight to monitor the football and other equipment specifications.  The NFL will probably have to hire 100 or so specialists because of what the Patriots did.  That is going to be a massive headache and will cost big time money, and for that reason I think the Patriots should be levied a massive fine to help pay for this nonsense.

       As for Brady himself over-doctoring the footballs, there should be some sort of on-the-field penalty as well. But as I argue above the current system is unworkable, so I think it is difficult to assess a major penalty.  I think it is thus comparable to the use of stickum or some other illegal tweaking of game equipment, so I think he may be suspended for a game or so.   

     On the field, this will not harm the Patriots a bit.  They are interested to see how hotshot new kid Jimmy Garoppolo can play anyway.  I think he'll be good if not great if he gets a chance.   If they suspend Brady for 8 games, that would keep him fresh for the playoffs more than anything else.    

   

Meet the New Browns---2015 Draftees

     For the first time in years, I have a good feeling about the Browns draft.  No weird trades, no dope fiends or lunatics.   No longshot Messianic would-be saviors.  We didn't mortgage the future to get some hotshot quarterback.  Just solid players that are going to improve the weaknesses of the team.

     In past years I had a sick, sick feeling about the NFL draft and our Cleveland Browns.  Like when we drafted a 28 year old quarterback with a first round pick, and used four draft picks including the fourth overall to select a running back who Jim Brown said was comparable to a third round draft pick....or when we used three picks to get a running back who had had major knee surgery on both knees...or picked up a talented dope fiend wide receiver.  Even last year there was a sneaking suspicion that the owner may have made the selection of quarterback Johnny Manziel.  This year felt different. 

     The plan is that we are going to play Power Football in the AFC North.   We are going to fix the worst defensive line in the NFL  We are going to run the ball six ways from sundown and we are going to beat up other teams.

Welcome to Cleveland....

Danny Shelton, Nose Tackle, Round 1, Pick 12 (12), 6'2" 339 Washington.  The Browns were last in the NFL in run defense.  That is going to change.  

Cameron Erving Center,  Round 1, Pick 19 (19) (from Bills), 6'5" 313 Florida St.  The Browns season was torpedoed when Alex Mack went down.   Cameron Erving can play center, but he also started at tackle at FSU.  I think he might challenge John Greco for a starting job at right guard.    

Nate Orchard, Outside Linebacker, Round 2, Pick 19 (51) (from Texans) 6'3" 250 Utah.   Nate was the #2 sacks leader in college football.   Opposing Quarterbacks were very comfortable in 2014, and Nate will make them feel much less comfortable.  Look our Mr. Barkevious Mingo, this kid might take your job.

Duke Johnson, Running Back and Kick Returner,  Round 3, Pick 13 (77) 5'9" 207 Miami.    Duke gives the Browns pass catching ability that they lacked in 2014.  He can immediately become the third down back while leaving the heavy lifting to Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West and Glenn Winston. He was a tremendous kickoff returner, and the Browns will probably try him at Punt Returner, where they were also at the bottom of the league.  

Xavier Cooper, Defensive End, Round 3, Pick 32 (96) (from Patriots)  6'3" 293 Washington St. Though listed as a defensive tackle, he will probably play defensive end in the Browns 3-4.   Look, you guys finished last in the NFL in run defense, so Ray Farmer is going to draft three new guys for the defensive line, plus free agent and former Pro Bowler Randy Starks.

Ibraheim Campbell, Strong Safety,  Round 4, Pick 16 (115) (from Bills) 5'11" 208 Northwestern.   This fellow would be a backup for Donte Whitner, but I'll bet that he will get a shot on special teams.

Vince Mayle, Wide Receiver, Round 4, Pick 24 (123) (from Cardinals) 6'2" 224 Washington St. Browns Nation has been screaming for quarterbacks and wide receivers, so Farmer throws them a bone finally.  We get a guy who is more of a physical possession type receiver for cold weather football, rather than the burner to catch bombs in a wind-free dome.   Folks, we don't play in a dome, quit crying for guys who excel in a dome environment.  Mayle will compete for the #5 receiver spot.

Charles Gaines  Cornerback, Round 6, Pick 13 (189), 5'10" 180 Louisville.  Do the Browns need a cornerback with two Pro Bowlers (Joe Haden and Tramon Williams)  plus rookies  K'Waun Williams, Pierre Desir and Justin Gilbert? Yes, because Desir and especially Gilbert struggled as rookies.   Gilbert is trying to play himself out of the league despite being a first round pick, and Desir was also very erratic.

Malcolm Johnson Fullback and H-Back, Round 6, Pick 19 (195) (from Texans). 6'2" 231, Mississippi St.   This fellow is listed as a tight end, but he played both fullback and tight end in college.  My guess is that he will be a fullback or H-Back type player used for run blocking.  

Randall Telfer, Tight End, Round 6, Pick 22 (198) (from Cardinals).   6'4" 250 USC .  Telfer is regarded highly as a blocker, rather than a pass catcher.   The Browns already have receiving tight ends in Gary Barnidge,  Rob Housler and Jim Dray

Hayes Pullard, Inside Linebacker, Round 7, Pick 2 (219) (from Patriots through Titans) 6'0" 240 USC .  They say he is good in pass coverage.  

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Cornerback, Round 7, Pick 24 (241) (from Cardinals) 5'9" 192 Oregon.   This guy was highly rated but coming back from serious knee surgery.  This is the kind of guy the Browns used to take in the second round.  


 

Elliot's 2015 Mock Draft 2.0 Cleveland Browns

   Of course it is impossible to predict who the Browns will draft this April 30, but that minor detail won't stop the Village Elliot.  
      Channelling my inner Ray Farmer, my overall plan is to build a tough defense and fix the worst ranked run defense in the NFL, while building a ball control, cold weather offense.  I don't think we are going to be in the top 15 in passing offense, but we could realistically build a top 5 running game, and that would be good enough to win and make the playoffs.  

     I know everyone wants a quarterback in Round 1. But I predict that we will not bundle a bunch of draft picks for the Tennessee Titans to move up and take Marcus Mariota.  The Philadelphia Eagles will do that because Chip Kelly is Mariota's former college coach.

     Plus in my view there are several quarterbacks with potential to be a starter in the NFL, but no superstars this year.  I think Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion are not far behind Mariota and Winston.  I think we can nab one in the second round or maybe as late as Round 4.

    In the first round, we have to stop the run, folks.  Last in the NFL is just not quite good enough, okay?  A lot of mock drafts have us taking Danny Shelton, massive beast who played the Nost Tackle position for Washington.  Originally I was on board with that, but then I found out that he ran a 5.66 time in the 40 yard dash.   Jimminy Christmas, there are old ladies at my Mom's retirement residence who can push their walkers faster than that.   Plus the 9 sacks he got don't translate to the NFL, as he got four in one game against a Division I AA team, and 2 more against an undermanned Hawaii team.    No, 5.66 is far too slow for the first round.   Instead I like Malcolm Brown, a nose tackle from Texas who had 71 tackles last year.   I'll go with him over Shelton who I believe is going to slide a bit.  

Then I have us taking La'el Collins, a terrific run blocking Right Tackle out of LSU.   Mitchell Schwartz is very good, but not dominant in the run game.   Mitchell and John Greco thus will fight it out for right guard, but we are going to run off right tackle this year.

La'el Collins is going to push people out of his way.  Draft him.  

I want a big physical receiver with good hands who can catch a wet ball in cold weather on a sloppy field.  I'm not opposed to a downfield burner who is at the top of his game in a dome stadium, but Browns fans have to get it into their brains that we really are trying to win playoff games in Cleveland in the near future.  David Funchess is a guy who is almost big enough to be a tight end. That's the guy I want in Round 2. 

As long as Petty, Hundley and Mannion are undrafted, the Browns may be content to hang back, even trading back a few spots.  But if necessary they will trade up to get one of the three.   Mannion is the most boring choice, and a few mocks are really down on him because he is slow.  But the Browns have pass blocking, and this kid has an arm that rivals Winston's.   Take him in Round 3 or even Round 2 if necessary. 

Sean Mannion looks good in bright orange.   

In Round 4, here again I am not thinking about Air Coryell, but again who fits a cold weather football team?   How about Jesse James, a big tight end from Penn State, one of the best run blockers among tight ends.  Then for the second pick in the round, let's take Trey  Flowers, an Outside Linebacker from Arkansas

I'm not talking about running once in a while for our Browns. No, I think we will need to run the ball 60% of the time.  I want to build a top 5 running game that is good for well over 2000 yards.  So even though we have two good backs, I draft a big running back in David Cobb from Minnesota in Round 5, and follow up with a fullback in Aaron Ripkowski from Oklahoma.  The Browns also need a punt returner, so how about someone like Marcus Murphy from Missouri.  He is a scatback running back and also ran back kickoffs and punts in college, and he  broke several kick returns for touchdowns in his career. 

In the seventh round, how about a kicker?   Justin Manton from Louisiana Monroe is an interesting guy because he is accurate, has a strong leg and can also punt.  I would look at him strictly as a placekicking challenger for Garrett Hartley.  

Round 1:   Malcolm Brown, NT, Texas

                 La'el Collins, ROT, LSU

Round 2:  Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan State

Round 3:  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

               

Round 4:   Jesse James, TE, Penn State

                 Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas

Round 5:  David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Round 6:  Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma
                Marcus Murphy, RB/KR Missouri

Round 7:   Justin Manton, K, Louisiana Monroe

Predictions for the 2015 NFL Draft

   The NFL Draft is fun because it is wacky and unpredictable.  I whiffed completely on most predictions I made in 2014 starting with saying the Browns would NOT draft Johnny Manziel due to Banner (a big advocate of JFB) being fired.  Nevertheless I'm willing to make predictions again this year.  

1. Winston and Mariota will go 1-2 this year because the league is completely nuts about quarterbacks.  Neither one is really that attractive as a draft pick and in fact to me Winston should be sent to the second round because of his off-the-field issues.   

Marcus Mariota's reaction upon hearing that the Browns will not draft him. 

2.  Philadelphia will trade a boatload of picks to the Titans for the privilege of signing Marcus Mariota. It's obvious that he is more valuable to a team coached by the guy who recruited Marcus for Oregon.   Most of those picks might be 2016 picks, and the Titans might use those picks to trade back in to the later rounds of 2015.   Philly will seek to deal spare qbs Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford to obtain additional picks in 2015 also.

3.  The Browns number one pick will be a 300 pounder, maybe Danny Shelton a Nose Tackle from Washington, but lately I have started to like Malcolm Brown from Texas, who is not as slow as Shelton.  Man, we need some help there. Most of the offseason news has been about not having the right quarterback, but the greatest chance for improvement is run defense.  

Brett Hundley will play in the NFL but so will  Malcolm Brown!

3.  The Browns will draft a qb, but not in the first round.   National media thinks we are desperate for a quarterback but this is not so.  We still have not figured out whether Manziel can play, but in the meantime we have respectable hedges in Josh McCown, Thad Lewis,  and Connor Shaw. Nothing wrong with these players, and just as Charlie Batch compiled a winning record for the Steelers in a long career, so might one of these guys as a backup for the Browns.   Anyway, I don't think they will give up on Manziel, but they will bring in some honest competition.  My sleeper qb pick is Sean Mannion, who is not fast but has great accuracy and arm strength.   I believe long term he will have a better career than Jameis Winston without the off the field nonsense. I think Farmer prefers a more mobile guy, however.   

4.  The Browns will also sign an undrafted free agent who is eligible for the Practice Squad.  I think the Browns will try to send Connor Shaw to the Practice Squad in 2015, but he may not clear waivers.  If so, they will need another guy.   Hence they just about have to pick up a UFA qb.  It's a battle for fourth string.   

5.  The Browns will draft an Offensive Lineman, either in a high round as a starter or a late round to add depth.  When Alex Mack went down the entire OL fell apart and nobody wants that to happen again.  Moving Joel Bitonio to Right Tackle is an option, but I think they would rather draft a big RT and slide Mitchell Schwartz to guard.   John Greco will be the new backup center/guard.  

6.  The Browns may draft a wr in a late round, but they are not desperate for WR this year.  WRs Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel and Miles Austin were above average last year, with Josh Gordon only a shadow of his former self.  The guy we are really trying to replace is Austin, and we have upgraded that position with Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline. The Browns have depth at that position but no superstars. 

7.   The Browns will consolidate some picks by trading up a few times, or else will trade 2015 picks for 2016 picks.  The have enough depth that they won't be able to carry 10 guys from the draft.  Six is a more reasonable number, particularly if we want to try to hit on undrafted free agents again this year (remember we got three part time starters that way, in Isaiah Crowell, K'Waum Williams and Taylor Gabriel).  

8.  Fans will cry that they didn't get a great new quarterback and speed demon wide receiver, but the team will come away much improved.     

Elliot's Mock Draft for the Browns 2015

Of course it is impossible to predict who the Browns will draft this April 30, but that minor detail won't stop the Village Elliot.  Channelling my inner Ray Farmer, my overall plan is to build a tough defense and fix the worst ranked run defense in the NFL, while building a ball control, cold weather offense.  I don't think we are going to be in the top 15 in passing offense, but we could realistically build a top 5 running game, and that would be good enough to win and make the playoffs.  

I know, I know everyone wants a quarterback in Round 1.  But I predict that we will not bundle a bunch of draft picks for the Tennessee Titans to move up and take Marcus Mariota.  The Philadelphia Eagles will do that because Chip Kelly is Mariota's former college coach.

Plus in my view there are several quarterbacks with potential to be a starter in the NFL, but no superstars this year.  I think Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion are not far behind Mariota and Winston.  I think we can nab one in the second round.

In the first round, we have to stop the run, folks.  Last in the NFL is just not quite good enough, okay?  A lot of mock drafts have us taking Danny Shelton, massive beast who played the Nose Tackle position for Washington.  But his 40 yard dash time is slow beyond belief and his sack totals, achieved via mammoth games against second tier teams, will not translate to the NFL.  There are glaciers that move faster.  It might be that Malcolm Brown is actually a better player at this position, but I'm okay with Shelton.

Then I have us taking La'el Collins, a terrific run blocking Right Tackle out of LSU.   Mitchell Schwartz is very good, but not dominant in the run game.   Mitchell and John Greco thus will fight it out for right guard, but we are going to run off right tackle this year.

La'el Collins is going to push people out of his way.  Draft him.  

As long as Petty, Hundley and Mannion are undrafted, the Browns may be content to hang back, even trading back a few spots.  But if necessary they will trade up to get one of the three.   Mannion is the most boring choice, and a few mocks are really down on him because he is slow.  But the Browns have pass blocking, and this kid has an arm that rivals Winston's.   Take him.

Sean Mannion looks good in bright orange.   

I want a big physical receiver with good hands who can catch a wet ball in cold weather on a sloppy field.  I'm not opposed to a downfield burner who is at the top of his game in a dome stadium, but Browns fans have to get it into their brains that we really are trying to win playoff games in Cleveland in the near future.  David Funchess is a guy who is almost big enough to be a tight end. That's the guy I want in Round 3. 

In Round 4, here again I am not thinking about Air Coryell, but again who fits a cold weather football team?   How about Jesse James, a big tight end from Penn State, one of the best run blockers among tight ends.  Then let's take Trey  Flowers, an Outside Linebacker from Arkansas

I'm not talking about running once in a while for our Browns.  No, I think we will need to run the ball 60% of the time.  I want to build a top 5 running game that is good for well over 2000 yards.  So even though we have two good backs, I draft a big running back in David Cobb from Minnesota in Round 5, and follow up with a fullback in Aaron Ripkowski from Oklahoma.  

In Round 7, I'm taking a chance with Karlos Williams another big strong running back with character issues.  But in Round 7 you have to take risks. 

Round 1:  Malcolm Brown, NT, Texas

                 La'el Collins, ROT, LSU

Round 2:  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

Round 3:  Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan State

               

Round 4:   Jesse James, TE, Penn State

                 Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas

Round 5:  David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Round 6:  Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma

Round 7:  Karlos Williams, RB Florida State

What Should the Browns Do With Johnny Manziel?

   This is actually not so complicated. The Browns should keep Johnny Manziel on the roster as long as he is good enough to be at least the third string quarterback.  You don't cut him unless there really are three guys that are clearly better.  I doubt whether that will be the case in 2015.

    Many enraged Browns fans, some with questionable sanity, want to cut Manziel immediately, feeling that he has betrayed them by not being an immediate superstar and for having a problem with substance abuse.   

      Let's deal with that right away:   If the Browns cut Johnny Manziel, they will be penalized because of the rules about guaranteed contracts.  The Browns would not save money by cutting Manziel. Their salary cap would be reduced in 2015 and they might have to cut payroll to make their cap limit. That would be stupid.   

       Sportrac lists that Manziel's 2015 "dead money" at  $6.5 M.  This is the amount of guaranteed money over the life of his contract, that has to be accounted for immediately when he is cut or traded.  That money has to come out of the Browns 2015 payroll.  Conversely if they keep him on the roster, they will have $4.6 Million dollars more to work with in 2015.   

     What about the risk of Manziel failing a drug test?   Well, what risk is that?    Nothing really bad happens to the Browns if he fails a test, other than he is not allowed to play.  They do not have to pay him if he is suspended!

What if Manziel has a positive drug test?  In that case the Browns are not penalized.   You can argue about the logic of the rule, but it clearly favors the Browns in this situation. 

If Manziel is as good as Seneca Wallace (a short third string qb who made some contributions to the Browns), he is worth keeping on the roster for another year.  How good do you really have to be to be a third string quarterback?  

       Suppose Manziel is not a superstar, but is good enough to be third on the depth chart for the Browns; say, as good as Seneca Wallace.   Yeah, he would be overpaid, but again that should be noted on Mr. Farmer's report card.  It's not the player's fault if the team gave him too much money.  But to reiterate, nothing bad happens to the Browns if he is second or third on the depth chart.   There is no reason why the Browns have to give him away if he doesn't establish himself as the starter in 2015.  

       Many Browns fans love to hate the second and third string qbs of the Browns.  But I'm calling into account the "Superstar or Bust" mentality of many Browns fans.  Who says every quarterback has to be a superstar?   This is not Fantasy Football where you have three quarterbacks and they are all Pro Bowl candidates.  Every team in the NFL has a backup quarterback who they think is good enough to win a couple games, and about half the teams have a third string quarterback at close to the league minimum.   You cut a guy if he is fourth string and you only have room for three guys. You don't cut a guy just because you're disappointed after two games or because you thought he would make the Hall of Fame his first year.   Right now the Browns have Josh McCown, Thad Lewis and Connor Shaw, and remember Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad if he can clear waivers, and my guess is he can.  

Is two games really enough to conclude that Manziel can not play in the NFL?  No.  We don't know what we've got yet.  

     It might be that the Browns drafted Manziel too early. They definitely expected way to much out of a kid entering the NFL after his sophomore year of college.  So blame that on the Browns brass, probably Jimmy Haslam who wanted him the most.  But that is not Manziel's fault. 

     The fact is that we don't know what he can do.  We know that he is one of the shortest qbs in the NFL (along with Russell Wilson of the Seahawks) and that he has a substance abuse problem.  We also know he failed to pick up the Browns' offense last year.   But he also has a first round caliber arm, and he has better than average speed and very good improvisational skills.    Let's see what he can do. Maybe he be a flop.  Maybe he'll be a star.  More likely he will be somewhere in between.  But we will never know if we don't keep him for another two years.  

    At the same time, we are not giving him the keys to the car automatically.  He is going to have to earn that by first proving that he can practice better than Josh McCown and the other challengers.   

    In previous years the Browns would create a number one quarterback by trading away the other candidates.  I think Farmer is going to bring some additional talent via the draft or trade. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota may be out of reach, but if either slips to about nine or ten, I could see the Browns moving up.   Alternatively Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley are  also candidates.  I would be surprised if we don't select at least one of them in the draft.   

     I think the Browns will ultimately form their depth chart with McCown at the top (for now), with Manziel, and a draftee competing for two additonal spots.  Thad Lewis has a a small chance of dislodging Manziel if Manziel does something completely awful, but my guess is that Manziel will survive that challenge.   Connor Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad one more year, and I think the Browns will be willing to expose him to waivers.   

     From here on out, Manziel will be treated like everyone else with a uniform number.  Hustle like hell if you want to earn a roster spot, my man.  I think it's very likely he will do so.  

.  

How Good Are Rookie Quarterbacks?

Fans loved Dan Snyder for making the bold move and trading four draft picks for star quarterback Robert Griffin III, who will be challenging Colt McCoy for a starting job this year. 

Football fans all hope for a "Magic Quarterback" in the NFL draft who will make an enormous impact as a rookie.   Even GM's and owners get caught up.  For example, in 2012 the Redskins famously gave up three first round picks and a second round pick in order to nab Robert Griffin III. 

So how realistic is it to expect a rookie to perform at a high level?  To answer this question, I took a look at the rookie quarterbacks of the last 10 years, and evaluated their quarterback rankings among league qualifiers.  Note that many rookies (probably about half of the first round draft choices) didn't even qualify their first year.  For example, the Raiders blew a first round pick on Jamarcus Russell, who was so bad that he didn't get enough appearances to qualify on the leader board in 2007.  Similarly the Packers took Aaron Rodgers in 2005, but he had a guy named Favre ahead of him and had to sit.    

The results are rather depressing for the "Magic Quarterback" theory.  On the average, rookie quarterbacks were ranked about 22nd in the league, using the standard quarterback rating system as published on ESPN.  The high water mark was 2012, when Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson had outstanding years.  Three teams--the Redskins, Seahawks and Colts--had good years with their rookie quarterback.   However, since 2005, Griffin and Wilson were the only two rookies  to finish in the Top 10. Getting a top 10 performer happens only once every five years or so.  And there are a lot of 1st round draft picks that never make it at all. Not a pleasant prospect.

Last year, the best quarterback was Teddy Bridgewater, who ranked 22nd in the league.  Blake Bortles was the first quarterback taken, but ranked 33rd in the league.  

  
So is a rookie quarterback a quick fix for the Browns or any other team?  I don't think so.  Wait a year or two, and then you might have something.  


2014  
Teddy Bridgewater 22
Derek Carr 30
Blake Bortles 33

2013
Mike Glennon 21
Geno Smith   37

2012
Robert Griffin     3
Russell Wilson   4
Andrew Luck    26
Ryan Tannehill 27
Brandon Weeden 29

2011
Cam Newton  15
Chistian Ponder 30
Blaine Gabbert 33

2010
Sam Bradford  25
Jimmy Clausen 31

2009 
Mark Sanchez 28
Matthew Stafford 29
Josh Freeman   30

2008 
Matt Ryan 11
Joe Flacco  22

2007

(no qualifiers)

2006

Matt Leinart 23

Vince Young 30

2005

Kyle Orton 34

Does Haslam Want to Own the Titans? Too Good to be True!

Let's think about this for a minute.  Would it be good to have the Browns owned by local business interests, perhaps with someone like Bernie Kosar fronting the ownership group?  Or are the Browns better off with Jimmy Haslam III running th show?  
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     It's probably a crock, but Joseph LaCanfora of ESPN has reported that Browns owner Jimmy Haslam III is interested in exploring the possibility of becoming the new owner of the Tennessee Titans, which is on the market due to the death of its longtime owner Bud Adams.  

     This is too good to be true.  LaCanfora's scenario, in which Haslam would take over the Tennessee Titans and then sell the Browns to Tennessee investors, doesn't make sense.  Why would a Tennessee ownership group want to take over a Cleveland Team instead of the Tennessee team?     
       If Haslam is interested in the Titans, it would make sense for the Cleveland area business people to come together to form an ownership group that could take over the team from Haslam.   And it wouldn't hurt at all to have someone with Browns connections, someone like Bernie Kosar, at the forefront of an ownership group.  

     That would be infinitely better than trusting the team to Tennessee oilman Jimmy Haslam.  Oddly, however, Browns fans have for the most part reacted with anger to the suggestion that Haslam might sell the team. In only a few years, Haslam has become totally beloved by most Cleveland fans.  It's like he is Ghandi or something.  I have no idea why.  

    Haslam has done some good things for the Browns, including getting a new deal done with the City of Cleveland that will help keep the franchise viable in Cleveland.  And he fired Joe Banner, which I feel had to be done.  

The Cleveland fan base is basically convinced that Jimmy Haslam is fiercely loyal to the city of Cleveland, and would never try to make money at their expense.   

       But he has also done some terrible things.  From a football point of view, it's rumored that he squashed front office attempts to get rid of Josh Gordon, and he instigated for the signing of Johnny Football as the team's first round draft pick in 2014, overruling Ray Farmer.   It's an established fact that several coaching candidates turned down the opportunity to come to Cleveland, not being willing to deal with Haslam or former General Manager and all-around genius, Joe Banner.   

    Haslam has also allowed his company Pilot Flying J to become embroiled in a multimillion dollar scandal involving fraudulent discounts for diesel fuel.  This is not the kind of publicity that the team needs.  

  

     Meantime no one seemed to notice that Haslam originally promised that he was going to move to Cleveland and become a full time resident owner for the team and reneged on both promises.  Instead, he has become a PART time NON-resident owner, maintaining his residence in Tennessee after un-retiring as CEO of Pilot Flying J.  Few people seemed to realize that it happened, and fewer still cared.  Local ownership is far more likely to fight to keep the franchise in Cleveland.  

     Most fans remain cheerfully ignorant, believing that they are so loved by the NFL that they would never be abandoned by Commissioner Goodell and the other good-hearted NFL owners. Moreover, the Browns have a strong lease agreement!  Why, isn't it impossible to break such an agreement?  

     Yeah, sure, kids.   Jimmy Haslam is so honest, he would NEVER hire a lawyer to exploit the loopholes in the Browns current lease agreement.     THAT CAN'T HAPPEN.   What am I thinking? 

    My favorite argument is that Jimmy Haslam is so wealthy that he is no longer motivated by money, and the increase in value (something like 500 million dollars) that would be created by moving the Browns to London or Los Angeles would not interest him.   Right, kids.   

   

     Let's consider that seriously for a moment. 

      Hahahahahahaha!   No, let's not.   

     Although there is adequate precedent for owners changing teams (for example the Ram's Robert Irsay swapped his team for Carroll Rosenbloom's Baltimore Colts, with BOTH franchises ultimately moving), a botched attempt to swap teams would be a public relations nightmare.  For that reason, I seriously doubt whether Haslam would consider it unless he were sure that he could get the deal done in advance.  I don't think Haslam can take that kind of risk given his fragile position with Pilot Flying J, not to mention the Browns.