How Does Anyone Know Caleb Williams is a Franchise Quarterback?

 

                                    https://x.com/jimbocarter6/status/1955070895799624024

So, if there is one term that makes me want to barf, it's "franchise quarterback," and if there's one stat that I hate, it's "quarterback won-loss record," and I don't believe that there is any such thing as a "quarterback guru" or quarterback whisperer."  Nor do I believe that any team or their fan base are cursed. However I do believe in psychological complexes, aided and abetted by the pathological press.

The narrative is that the quarterback is solely responsible for the team's fortunes.  So, for example, Josh Allen is supposedly better than Lamar Jackson because his team won in the playoffs by two points last season, and Patrick Mahomes is better than both of them, if you believe that the quarterback is the only factor that determines wins. 

Which brings us to the Chicago Bears and their pathological and perpetually upset fan base.  They have decided that Caleb Williams needs to be the MVP of the league or close to it this year because they have Ben Johnson as Head Coach, and last year Sam Darnold was "molded" by Johnson into a 14-win quarterback last season after never having won more than seven games in a year previously.  So, given that Caleb Williams was drafted first overall in 2024 and is therefore a "generational talent," Quarterback Guru Johnson should do even better with with Williams. Sounds logical, right? 

OK, now shut up and listen, Bears fans.  What if Darnold was a good quarterback all along, but playing on bad teams? Maybe the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers were not good teams. Their fan bases, like yours, believe that they are perpetual Super Bowl contenders were it not for their poisonous quarterbacks. In fact, however, those are awful organizations.  The Vikes, on the other hand, have a very good GM and they went to the playoffs four times in the ten years before Darnold, twice with Kirk Cousins, once with Case Keenum, and once with Teddy Bridgewater.  So maybe you don't need to have a generational talent to win as many as 13 games in the NFL.  Give Darnold credit for getting them to 14, but Case Keenum got them 13 and so did Kirk Cousins.  By the way, the Guru Offensive Coordinator for Cousins was Kevin Stefanski.

The super prospect, like John Elway or Andrew Luck is supposed to have arm strength, size, speed, accuracy, playmaking skill, readmaking ability, a strong college resume and strong character.  How many of these qualities were evident in Caleb Williams?  

Williams has a strong arm; the same height as Baker Mayfield; a few pounds heaveier; playmaking skill was in great evidence in 2022 when he threw for 42 TDs versus only 5 picks.  He elected to not run the 40 yard dash in the Combine, but plenty fast.  The hardest thing to judge is accuracy and information processing because of the difference between the college game and the Pro game. In the college game, quarterbacks basically prove they can hit wide open targets; in the Pro game, the windows are much smaller and the reads are much more complex and the game is much faster.  There might just be a limit to how much you can know about a rookie quarterback.  Hence making a young quarterback first overall carries a certain element of risk.  Cleveland fans, do you remember how many of your were crying for Mitchell Trubisky instead of boring old defensive end Myles Garrett?  

How do you ruin a young quarterback?  This is an art form which has been perfected in Cleveland.  First, give him a team with a lousy offensive line so that he can get sacked a lot and develop some bad habits.  Second, don't give him a running back, make everything depend on the passing game.  Third, avoid possession receivers and tight ends; instead go for speed demon wide receivers with stone hands and go for the bomb as often as possible. None of this ground and pound stuff.  Make the quarterback earn his paycheck. 

So what did Caleb's first season look like?  Well, he led the NL in getting sacked with a whopping 68, 16 more than the next highest.  He was 33rd in passing yards per attempt.  As a team the Bears were 25th in rushing yards, so all the pressure is in fact on the passing game, as no help is available from the running game.  So yeah, we basically see the same factors in Chicago that fit the Cleveland formula. 

So, Caleb, Chicago has got this hard-ass coach, Ben Johnson, who is a certified Guru based on Sam Darnold having a good year, and so the Chicago Bears fan base is convinced that this is the year for you to emerge as a Franchise Quarterback. 

This observer doesn't buy it, however. The Vikings had a very good team in 2024, with All-World Justin Jefferson at WR1, and running back Aaron Jones turning in over 1100 rushing yards and over 1500 total yards from scrimmage. So no wonder the quarterback performed well. But if you were to trade Darnold back to the Jets, he would probably still underperform. Since Aaron Rodgers put up similarly unimpressive numbers during his brief tenure in the Big Apple, that is a strong indicator that the franchise theory is hogwash.  Football is a team game, it's not just about one guy. So Ben Johnson may not actually have magical Guru powers, and he may not be enough to propel Caleb to the superstardom that Bears fans think they deserve. 

A few stud linemen and a premier running back would make the offense run a lot better.  Once you have a real offense, then you might learn more about the quarterback.