Flacco Rings Up 33 on Steelers: Thank you Cleveland!

 

The Browns have a terrible offense this year, as everyone knows.  So far they have been unable to score more than 17 points. 

Stupid teams try to solve problems by assigning blame, and the Browns are a stupid team. The Browns always, always, always blame it on the quarterback. Hence, they decided to blame their terrible offense on Joe Flacco.  Presumably, everything else was great:  Great O-Line, great WRs, great TEs and great Running Backs.  The only problem was the quarterback, or so they thought.  Out with you, Joe Flacco. Off to Cincinnati for a coveted Round 6 draft pick. That's all you are worth.

None of this can be true.  Otherwise, Joe Flacco could not possibly have led the Bengals to a 33-31 victory.  His ceiling is only 17 points, right? 

Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin did not believe it for a minute. "“To be honest, it was shocking to me,” he said Monday. “Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn’t make sense to me to trade a quarterback that you think enough of to make your opening-day starter to a division opponent that’s hurting in that area (due to Joe Burrow's injury), but that’s just my personal feelings.”

The solution is equally stupid:   ROOKIE QUARTERBACK!  

The Browns LOVE to change quarterbacks! They always think that a rookie quarterback will burst onto the scene and solve all their problems, despite an aging offensive line, lack of depth at running back, wide receivers who can't get open or can't catch the ball and unimaginative 

 

Conversely, it pains me to point out that it is totally implausible that someone as slow and short as Gabriel is could be able to deliver the football in traffic. Linemen are able to crowd him out and bat down his passes. Hence last week the Steelers were able to deflect 8 passes, sacking the little guy 6 times and getting hits on him an incredible 16 times.  This is not going to work, fellas. This is not 2020 when the Browns had five offensive linemen who were a threat to head to Canton when they retire.  Now they are simply a threat to retire.   

A new quarterback will not be effective until such time as they rebuild the offensive line.  They don't necessarily need to use the first overall pick on a stud tackle, but they do need to have some first round ammunition.  They can trade back a few spots and acquire another first round pick in 2027 and additional help in the early rounds, just as they did in the Travis Hunter trade (Browns' No. 2 overall for  No. 5 overall  plus a Round 2 pick and a 2026 Round 1 pick).  Rebuild the offensive line, and then you can think about the skill positions including the quarterback.  

The main question I have, is who is calling the shots in Berea?  Whose idea was it to fire Flacco the first time?  And then whose idea was it to start quarterbacks for just one game at the end of the season (Bailey Zappe and Jeff Driskel in 2023)?  Whose idea was it to sign Kenny Pickett and then trade him?  Whose idea was it to sign a quarterback who can't play in Dillon Gabriel?  Whose idea was it to sign a talented but undisciplined quarterback in Shedeur?  Whose idea was it to blow four more draft picks after Deshaun, making a total of 10 since 2022?  

If I did not know better, I'd swear that co-owner James Haslam III was still calling the shots on quarterbacks and has not learned a thing since the Deshaun debacle.  

Bruce Aryans Would be the Perfect Interim Coach

 

I want somebody that is brutally honest who Shedeur Sanders will actually listen to...like Bruce Aryans!

Well, once again, your Browns have screwed up royal by blaming their inferior offense on a Super Bowl quarterback in Joe Flacco, when the real problem is that the team is about six players short of NFL caliber on offense.  In all, the Browns have invested 10 draft picks, including 3 Round 1 picks, and they have only Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders to show for it.  This has been the most horrible over-investment in quarterbacks in NFL history. 

The current quarterback of the present, Dillon Gabriel, is far more advanced than the more talented Shedeur Sanders, but everyone else in the NFL--as far as we know--graded him in the sixth round.  Namely, Gabriel is too slow and too short to evade the pass rush. His passes are going to get knocked down and he is going to get sacked.  Versus Pittsburgh, he got sacked 6 times, with 16 quarterback hits and 8 pass deflections.

It was a mistake to start Gabriel if the Browns were not serious about committing to him as their starter. A new quarterback normally deserves at least a year to prove that he belongs.  

As it is, Gabriel is an embarrassment.  This stuff--play design, play calling, structuring the team, all of it-- just does not work. 

On the other hand, it is hard to justify starting Sanders, especially while he seems more interested in his stats than doing everything he can to help his team win. You see this often at the college level, when a quarterback will willingly take a sack rather than throw an incompletion.  Dan Orlovsky of ESPN articulated this concern about Shedeur, and there may be some truth to this.

Is there a way to start Shedeur without feeding any potential sense of entitlement?  Well, how about hiring a disciplinarian like Bruce Aryans, a guy with exceptionally high credibility, who also happened to have been Tom Brady's boss when their team won the Super Bowl.  Bruce was also a former Browns Offensive Coordinator.  

Bruce might not be interested for a five-year gig with the Browns, but an interim job might be just the thing for him at age 73.  Heck, let's see if we can get Offensive Line Coach Bill Callahan (69) back. There's another guy with Super Bowl experience and a great track record of success.  

Who's Going to Tell Myles We Want to Give Up on the Season?

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/garafolo-myles-garrett-s-production-could-be-scary-after-new-contract

Um, Mr. Garrett, the fans would like to give up the season to start testing rookie quarterbacks. We hope you will understand and continue to play for us at a high level while the team gets its butt kicked every week. How about it, sir? (HINT:  He ain't buying it!)

https://x.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1966570434859790701

Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders and Bailey Zappe have the same levels of fan support as the mayoral candidates in New York City--violent disagreement.

A persistent theme in the fan base is that it's time to give up on the season so that we can "find out about" our quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders and Bailey Zappe and make a decision about drafting a quarterback in 2026.  This mentality that it's time to give up after just a few games is absurd. 

In the NFL, you play to win every game, first of all.  You don't make lineup changes based on next year's agenda until such time as you are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.  You owe that to your players. 

Otherwise, Mr. and Ms. Fan, I am assigning YOU the task of explaining to Mr. Myles Garrett why you want to tank the season, and yet you expect him to stay in Cleveland. Mr. and Mrs. Haslam will hire you to represent the fan base, assign you to a conference room at 76 Lou Groza Blvd in Berea and you can go one-on-one with Mr. Garrett and explain the ingeniousness of your plan to just give up and start testing rookie quarterbacks.   

What exactly do you think you're going to find out?  First of all, the problems with the Browns offense are not related to Joe Flacco.  The offensive line has gotten old, and will not get younger if you install a rookie quarterback.  There is only one wide receiver, Jerry Jeudy, The second guy, Cedric Tillman, only had 339 yards last year, and is off to a slow start this year. 

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady both talk openly about the need to gain head smarts by studying the first year.  Some college quarterbacks, particularly mobile ones, have been able to have success their first year, notably Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud Baker Mayfield and a few others.

If the offense is struggling under Joe Flacco, if the offensive line can't provide pass protection or run blocking, if there is no WR2 to take pressure off Jerry Jeudy, the offense is certain to continue to struggle. what exactly is the rookie quarterback supposed to do? 

By the way, no matter which quarterback you pick, it will be the wrong one.  The preseason showed us that Shedeur likes to go off script and scramble, and this was very effective in college. He made a lot of spectacular improvised plays but also took a lot of sacks.  He is probably the People's Choice, but is far from transitioning to the Pro game.  

Dillon Gabriel impresses with head smarts and moxie, and played in a pro-style offense at Oregon under Dan Lanning.  However, the combination of small size and slow foot speed may be detrimental for the spectacular NFL success that Browns fans crave.  

Bailey Zappe is also slow but agile and has NFL experience. Nobody thinks of him as a starter after not being the answer in post-Brady New England.  However, he threw for a record  nearly  5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns in his senior year at Western Kentucky.  Yikes. 

If Flacco had to miss a game, Gabriel is the second string, though Zappe would merit some consideration to start.  Zappe started one game for the Browns last year.   

Now let's ask this:  why is it flat out impossible to compete for the AFC North or at least a Wild Card?  At the time of the composition of this article, only the Bengals are above .500, and their first string quarterback is out, possibly for the entire season, with Jake Browning in.  If you're going to tell me that the qb doesn't matter, why are we having this discussion? The Bengals can be caught. 

Do you think that the Steelers are invincible now that they have Aaron Rodgers on their team?  Just like the New York Jets last year nearly went to the Super Bowl, right?  Not. 

The Ravens figure to be the most formidable competition, but they lost one game and should have lost to the Browns.  Not unbeatable. Currently one game ahead of the Browns, and many of our fans want to give up.  

Good grief, this is football.  Just as Tom Hanks said "There is no crying in baseball," I say, "There is no giving up in football."  Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over till it's over." I say the same thing. When you're mathematically eliminated, then you can sit down the veterans who you think might not be with the team next year, not before.  

 

Browns, Packers have Similar Roster Composition

 

The Browns actually have more players from Rounds 1-4 on their roster than the Packers (29 for the Browns versus 26 for the Packers) and the Packers have more players from Rounds 5-7 plus Undrafted players (27 for the Pack and 24 for the Browns).  

The Cleveland Browns actually have one more Round 1 pick on their roster than the Packers do. Overall the Browns have 29 players originally drafted from Rounds 1-4 versus 26 for the Pack. The Packers have more Round 5 and 6 draft picks on their roster, while the Browns have three more undrafted players on their roster. Overall, rounds 5-7 plus undrafted account for 27 Packers versus 24 Browns.  

That is a bit surprising.  Recently I wrote an article pointing out  that Browns are operating at a distinct disadvantage compared to Baltimore because the Ravens have more early round draft picks on their roster than the Browns. This is not surprising after years of giveaways for recycled superstars such as Odell Beckham, Jr. and especially Deshaun Watson. However, surprisingly, the Browns compare more favorably versus the supposedly invincible Green Bay Packers, who are favored by -9.5 points in our house for Game 3.  

Of course, the draft is not always an accurate indicator of talent. Sometimes the undrafted player makes All-Pro, while the first round pick flames out after a year or two.  Plus, the free agent process adds some variables.  The Packers are a very young team, with only the long snapper and placekicker aged 30 or older, whereas the Browns have 11 guys age 30 or older.  

Nevertheless, if the scouting department knows what it is doing, it should be hitting on its early round draft picks.  It is a bit weird that the Packers are more represented by late round picks than early picks.  

Perhaps what we are seeing is that the Packers let their draft picks go rather than re-resigning them, and they have been awarded compensatory picks, which tend to be later round picks.  They would rather have young players from late rounds rather than early round players on their second contract, perhaps.   That trend may continue, now that they have traded for Micah Parsons and their first round picks for the next two seasons now belong to Dallas. 

Why Jimmy Haslam Should Fire DePo and Hire Me

 

I can do a better job than DePo. Honest. Things are screwed up in Cleveland. Details below.  

Dear Mr. and Mrs. Haslam, 

I humbly offer my services to the Cleveland Browns to replace my former idol, Paul DePodesta as Chief Strategy Officer. The organization has gone very, very wrong, and I can definitely do a better job. Or perhaps DePo is actually giving good advice and you are not following it. Or perhaps he has gotten disgusted at having his advice being ignored.  In any case, fundamentals are terrible at 76 Lou Groza Blvd. and they need to be fixed.  I may not know much, but I'm a nuclear research scientist and I think I can provide solutions to complex problems in an understandable way, and that is why you should hire me. 

The DePodesta plan was to hoard draft picks and conserve cap for a few years and then splurge for a few years and try to win it all, then go back to losing and start the cycle over again. My plan is to ALWAYS invest in draft picks and NEVER QUIT. The "splurge" phase was pathological and should simply be omitted. 

The problem is obvious, as you can see by comparing the composition of the Ravens roster with the Browns.  As of Week 3, they have more first round picks than the Browns on their active roster, and the Browns have more Undrafted players on their roster. Who do you think has the advantage? In addition, forget about solving your problems by starting a rookie quarterback.  That imbalance will still exist, and a rookie quarterback will not fix a thing. It's a worthless idea until such time as you have a team to back it up.

The Ravens roster contains 36 players drafted in Rounds 1-4. The Browns have only 29.  Conversely, the Ravens have only 17 players from the later rounds, 5-7 plus Undrafted, while the Browns have 24. No wonder the Ravens are better.  

If you continue to draft two and three times as many high draft picks as other teams, you will surely win. The DePo plan was flawed because it had a built-in signal that at a certain point it was time to blow it all on frivolous investments, like OBJ and Deshaun, that did not improve the team but totally destroyed the personnel advantage that had been developed.  For all his genius, that part was nuts.  Just keep going with the part that was working and DON'T STOP THIS TIME. 

Here then is the blueprint for success: 

1. Stop Accumulating Dead Money 

At present, the Browns are restructuring almost all big contracts into the far future every year to get the first year discount.  This is like trying to get rich by buying more and more things on credit cards. But players cannot play forever and thus a monstrous "DEAD MONEY" charge awaits the Browns salary cap when they are finally cut.  Since 2023, "DEAD MONEY" has inceased as follows: $23.4 M, $42.5 M, $70.3 M. That number will rise to at least $115 M in 2026 and 2027 if Deshaun is cut.  This is money that comes out of the Browns cap allowance but cannot be used to pay active players.  How can we beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh if we have $115 million less money to spend on players than our rivals?  You cannot perpetually put players on first year discount.  

2. Trade for Additional Picks in the Draft

The problem is obvious. As shown above, as of Sept 17, the Browns have 10 Round 1 players, the Ravens have 13 Round 1 players.  The Browns have 13 Undrafted players and the Ravens have 9 Undrafted guys.

The reason why trading down works is that teams that believe they are one player away from the Super Bowl (i.e., half the NFL) are willing to pay exorbitant prices in draft capital to move up in the NFL draft. The Browns can take advantage of this.   

Draft picks can in fact be invested like stocks and other NFL teams eager to win now will offer an incredible Return on Investment (ROI). For example, in this year's draft, Andrew Berry made a great trade with Jacksonville, moving back three spots in Round 1, and acquiring an additional Round 1 pick next year as well as a Round 2 pick in 2025. Using standard valuation methods, the ROI is about 50%, and even higher if Jacksonville finishes worse than 16th overall. Other trades were carried out in later rounds also. For example, an easily analyzed deal occurred when the Bears traded a 2025 Round 5 pick for the Rams' Round 6 pick and their 2026 Round 4 pick. That's a steal for the Bears. 

Let's think about value, and apply it to some of the mega-bad-deals of the past.  The Browns were doing great after the 2018 season having gone from 0-16 to a winning record the second half of the season under Gregg Williams. At that time, John Dorsey decided it was time to blow money and draft picks.  The Odell Beckham Jr. trade made him the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL at the time ($14.5 mil/year sounds cheap now but in 2019 it was a huge number) while simultaneously giving away former Round 1 pick Jabrill Peppers and a Round 1 pick.  What if the Browns had had Peppers plus a draft pick (maybe they would have traded back for additional assets in 2021 while retaining some value in 2020), and two premier free agents to face Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020?  It is very easy to believe that Buffalo would have played Cleveland rather than the Chiefs for the AFC Championship game.  

Now let's talk about the elephant in the room, the true cost of the Deshaun deal.  The salary of a middle Round 1 pick in 2022 would be valued at $60 million over four years plus a fifth year option. Generally it's believed that first-contract players are a better value than veteran deals. So if you include the value of the draft picks coughed up for Deshaun (3 firsts, a third and two fourths), that would add at least $200 million to the acquisition cost.  Deshaun's salary was $230 million, but if you include the value of the draft picks, the total acquisition cost was over $400 million dollars.  No player can possibly worth that kind of money.  

The OBJ plus Deshaun deals show that the general formula of record-setting contracts PLUS first round picks is a bad combination.  LET'S NOT EVER DO THIS AGAIN!

Overspending is the wrong approach.  You win nothing by spending more than anyone else is willing to spend.  

This is why you need to hire me. There is no choice but to once again acquire MORE DRAFT PICKS THAN ANY OTHER NFL TEAM and this time DON'T QUIT.

3. Stop Overinvesting in Quarterbacks

Another way you can blow this is to overinvest in quarterbacks. Good grief, the Browns are the most quarterback-obsessed team in the NFL, edging out the Jets and Giants. Cool it for a few years. In the last four years the team has already mortgaged its future in the Deshaun debacle and also burned four additional draft picks in the past two years. We already discussed the financial insanity of Deshaun's acquisition, but throwing away additional draft picks is doubly insane.  

There needs to be an internal rule that the team will not fire a quarterback without two full seasons on the team.  Even veteran quarterbacks generally improve in their second year with the same team and the same system. One and done is a bad habit. 

The Browns do not need to draft another quarterback in 2026. You already drafted two quarterbacks in 2025. Develop them. Both Tyler Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders have shown promise.  The Browns will likely have priority on the waiver wire for the roster cutdown after training camp, and we can choose a decent quarterback for third string.  Somebody like Tommy DeVito or Tyler Huntley will certainly be available again. Even Bailey Zappe will know the playbook and the team by then.  You don't need to throw draft picks away for a third quarterback until Gabriel and Sanders have had a true opportunity. 

 

4.  Run the Damn Ball

The surest guarantee of quarterback success is a strong running game behind a strong O-Line.  Build that first.  The classic mistake is to draft a rookie quarterback with no talent around him and start him immediately and hope he learns by leading the NFL in getting sacked.  Hello, DeShone Kizer. The Browns have ruined many quarterbacks by getting too excited about them and putting them on the field too early and having them learn bad habits.  

The top 10 rushing teams averaged 10.7 wins last year, and the top rushing team was Philadelphia, who won it all.  So if you're going to trot out the tired cliches like "it's a quarterback's league," the numbers say that running the ball is very important. Few teams had success throwing the ball without a complementary running game.  

For a while, the NFL went through a phase in which they thought that running backs were not important to draft because their average career was not very long.  Well, the commitment is not very long either, and if they leave as free agents, you get a compensatory draft pick to take their place. Also, great running backs last longer than average running backs.  So NFL teams are starting to rethink the taboo on drafting running backs early. The Ravens' running back room always has a feature back; a third down guy with outside speed and pass catching ability; a short yardage guy; and a 300 pound fullback.  We should do likewise.

For years, cornerbacks have been highly prized because they generate INTs.  However, did anyone notice that INT numbers are way down in today's NFL? The Browns had 8 fumble recoveries on defense and 41 sacks versus just 4 INTs. So, I'd rather generate more sacks in today's NFL. In the defensive backfield, I'd look for cover guys, not the INT artists, in order to give the linemen an extra split second to sack the QB. That's how drives are ended these days. Hence I'm more inclined to go after corners in like Round 3 rather than Round 1.  In fact, I'll take two. We're playing mostly zone.

5. What If Myles Garrett Demands Out?

This is the hardest part of the article to write.  What if Myles Garrett is unwilling to suffer through the end of the Deshaun payoff and wants out? He is the greatest defensive player that the Browns have ever had. But I think it's unfair to deny him his shot at a Super Bowl. If he demands out, he is going to have to be granted his wish, much like Micah Parsons. I don't think the Browns have a choice. 

Besides, the Parsons deal favors the Packers in Year 1, and maybe even result in a Super Bowl victory, but just like the Deshaun deal, by year 4 they will be missing those two number one picks, and $188 million dollars worth of cap will punish the roster by Year 4. The Cowboys are actually headed in the right direction, but like the Browns, they have a number of sins to repent for before they can win again. 

Summary

There is no easy way out, no magical Franchise Quarterback who will make up for the massive lack of talent on the Browns roster.  You will have to make investments in extra early round draft picks in order to improve.  

Deshaun May be Activated by Game 5 and Should be QB2

Deshaun Watson looks to be on track to be healthy, meaning he will have to be activated by Game 5 and if so he is probably the second best quarterback on the roster. 

The Deshaun soap opera continues, but maybe this is not a bad thing. As noted by the x.com post above, as well as several other sources, Deshaun Watson looks fine physically.  He's running sprints and executing his drills. He is currently on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, where he will remain for the next month.  By Week 5, however, a decision will be made.  If he is ready to start practicing, he must be given a roster spot. 

The fan consensus is that Deshaun is the Antichrist and must never see the field.  But the last time he saw the field before the ruptured Achilles, he went 15 for 17 with zero INTs. That's not terrible. Although the fan base does not want to hear this, it's better than Shedeur is capable of in 2025, and the Front Office does not want to hear that Dillon Gabriel combines lack of height and lack of speed in a package that has rarely been successful at the NFL level. 

Moreover, keep in mind that the team gave Deshaun everything he wanted in 2024, and that was a bad idea. Namely, they tried to model their offense off Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills using an Offensive Coordinator that the Bills fired.  Watson was never a long ball quarterback, but he might really be good in Stefanski's grind it out, run-first short passing offense.  When all else fails, listen to the Coach. 

I should probably mention in passing that there is also a Nuclear Option, in which the Browns say that Deshaun is (a) not healthy and  (b) re-injured himself by doing something negligent during his first rehab. If they can prove that, they can get some of the $167 million back that they still owe him.  That would be hard to prove when the dude is running wind sprints and looks like his old self. Face it, he should be back, and he has to take up a roster spot, whether he plays or not.  I think he should be the number two quarterback this year.   

Watson may be hated by the fan base, but inside the building at 76 Lou Groza Blvd he is a regular guy despite his alleged problems with masseuses. And fans, the real problem with Watson his contract, which is a Jimmy Haslam III special.  It's hard to blame the player for accepting the money offered by a foolish owner.  

 

The Browns Will Contend for First Overall Pick in 2026 Draft

 

Andrew and Kevin did not seem to happy about drafting Shedeur, leading many observers to suspect it was not entirely their idea. They may get the blame anyway for the lack of talent as the Browns cruise to another four win season.

Contending for first overall pick is a nice way to say that this year's edition of the Cleveland Browns will probably be a disaster. Never say never, but the Browns are simply operating at a huge disadvantage compared to the rest of the NFL. Namely, they still owe Deshaun Watson $167 million dollars (including $36 million this year), which inhibits their ability to sign long term deals, and they are paying an astounding $71 million in "dead money" in 2025 to players no longer on the team. In total they are paying over $100 million to players who will not play football for the Cleveland Browns in 2025. They Browns have borrowed and put off player salaries to the point where the team is just not sustainable.  Compare that to the Steelers, who have just $16 million being spent on dead money.  

The Browns have blown a total of 10 draft picks on quarterbacks since 2022 (six from the Watson deal, a net of four since then) and those players are going to be missed. 

Look, I am not a genius in player evaluation, but you can't gouge the payroll by upwards of $100 million dollars and waste 10 draft picks on quarterbacks and expect to be competitive. 

And it's actually not that good.  The Browns have invested a lot of money in players who are older and not healthy, and they owe money in "voidable years" which will come due when they stop extending their contracts.  How many concussions has Denzel Ward had?  Well, if he is not extended, the Browns will be charged $59 million in dead money next season. Jack Conklin has one year left on his deal, and then the Browns will be charged $13 million in dead money next season.  Similarly, the Browns will owe $24 million on David Njoku if he is not extended.  All this while they attempt to pay down Deshaun's $167 million remaining money.  And you don't think that will affect the team? 

All those articles speculating the Browns might put in a bid for Micah Parson make me want to toss my cookies. You guys have to get real. The days of big fat juicy free agent signings are OVER.  Accept it. 

The Browns plan all along was to hoard draft picks and cap for 2016-2018, and then overspend for a few years to try to win rings.  Ladies and gentlemen, that window has CLOSED.  The Browns have tried to keep the window open by borrowing money from the future in order to feed their superstar quarterback, Deshaun Watson.  IT DID NOT WORK.  They need to reload and safe cap and draft picks for another three years.  Instead they are making a mess by attempting to offloading commitments against future cap dollars and they have fallen behind. 

The Browns need to face the truth, like the Dallas Cowboys have, and admit that they have a rebuilding period ahead of them.  They will not be competitive until they have paid off Deshaun's deal and cleared these ridiculous "voidable years" contracts. In the meantime, as painful as it sounds, they need to be trading down, like they did this season and foregoing the stud receiver type pick like Travis Hunter, and generate additional first round picks and rebuild the offensive and defensive lines.  If they can prove they can protect the quarterback and run the football, then we'll talk about acquiring someone to fling the pigskin.  I don't know why anyone wants to fire Shedeur before his career even starts, anyway.  Let's give him his shot in 2026 and 2027. 

4-13 seems like the over under, I'm sorry to say.  Don't blame Kevin Stefanski, but do blame Andrew Berry for these atrocious deals and especially blame James Arthur Haslam III for reasserting his meddling role in the personnel affairs of the team.

Jerry Jones , Cowboys, Micah Parsons All Got What They Wanted

 

Photo Credit:  https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Jerry_Jones_%2824176024648%29_%28cropped%29.jpg

Jerry Jones' Cowboys needed cap relief and draft picks to rebuild.  He got them what they needed, and made out agent David Mulugheta  to be the bad guy. 

The press is ragging on Jerry Jones for trading away Micah Parsons, a premier pass rushing talent for two first round draft picks and three time Pro Bowl lineman Kenny Clark, but this is actually a great move for the Cowboys in the long run, and Parsons and Green Bay get an opportunity for a ring right now. Face it, the Cowboys were not going to make a run this season. Parsons gets a deal for $188 million dollars over four years, which fans figure is really cheap, but which was unaffordable for the Cowboys.  

Jones has been an easy target, ever since he fired Jimmy Johnson, one of the greatest coaches and part of one of the smartest organizations in history. But speaking of Johnson, how did he build the Cowboys?  One of the key moves was trading superstar Herschel Walker to the Vikings for a slew of draft picks including Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith, Pro Bowl lineman Russell Maryland and 3-time All-Pro Darren Woodson.

Now, were the Cowboys going to win the Super Bowl this year?  Well, probably not.  What they needed was cap relief and extra draft picks to make a run in the future. Now, do you think Jerry should have been brave and honest and told the press, "Well folks, me and Stephen and the boys figure we ain't got the hosses this year, so we're fixin' to save cap space for upcoming years and tank for draft picks, and build for the next several years!"?

No way!  Dallas vigilantes would have shot old Jerry out of the saddle for that!  

So the cover story is that it is all the agents fault. Jerry still loves Micah and Micah loves Jerry, but Jerry blames David Mulugheta, Micah's agent, and that's why there was an impasse. Jerry knew what he was doing all along.

We have to ask what exactly Micah's true value is. It's not unlimited, though in the minds of the fan and the press, he could have gotten a billion dollars and it would still be too low.  But there has to be a true value. Make no mistake, Micah is a premier pass rusher, and he's young.  But his run defense is more ordinary. He cannot be worth unlimited dollars, and the Cowboys are overspent. Dak is a really good quarterback, but he is getting paid $50 million dollars with a total commitment of $180 million dollars.  This is totally nuts, but what is done is done. The team needs other players in order to win and they cannot afford them now.  They have to clear cap space and they need good young players from the draft.  

So Jerry took the hit for the front office, but really doesn't mind the attention even if it is negative.  Call him an idiot, a dictator, a buffoon, but he loves being the center of attention, and he got the club what it needed.  Parsons and his unaffordable cap number is out.  Two first round picks are in; the Cowboys are going to be set up to win for the next several years and they will be able to sign new free agents.  And by the way, they received a three time Pro Bowler in Kenny Clark, who only counts $3 million against the cap.  

The Cowboys have saved themselves $185 million of future year dollars. Good Lord, you can buy an entire defensive line for that kind of money. 

Very likely, in three years the Packers are going to wish they did not have a gigantic Micah Parsons salary staring them in the face.  It's kind of like that expensive sports car you bought on a 72-month loan.  It was great for the first few months, but as years go buy and maintenance bills pile up, you realize that was a dumb idea because you cannot afford to get married and buy a house.  The Pack will miss having first round draft picks.  

The Packers get a great deal in Year One, but in the long run, this will work out for the Cowboys, too.  It's a win-win, and if Green Bay does not win the Super Bowl, Cowboys win hands down.  

How Does Anyone Know Caleb Williams is a Franchise Quarterback?

 

                                    https://x.com/jimbocarter6/status/1955070895799624024

So, if there is one term that makes me want to barf, it's "franchise quarterback," and if there's one stat that I hate, it's "quarterback won-loss record," and I don't believe that there is any such thing as a "quarterback guru" or quarterback whisperer."  Nor do I believe that any team or their fan base are cursed. However I do believe in psychological complexes, aided and abetted by the pathological press.

The narrative is that the quarterback is solely responsible for the team's fortunes.  So, for example, Josh Allen is supposedly better than Lamar Jackson because his team won in the playoffs by two points last season, and Patrick Mahomes is better than both of them, if you believe that the quarterback is the only factor that determines wins. 

Which brings us to the Chicago Bears and their pathological and perpetually upset fan base.  They have decided that Caleb Williams needs to be the MVP of the league or close to it this year because they have Ben Johnson as Head Coach, and last year Sam Darnold was "molded" by Johnson into a 14-win quarterback last season after never having won more than seven games in a year previously.  So, given that Caleb Williams was drafted first overall in 2024 and is therefore a "generational talent," Quarterback Guru Johnson should do even better with with Williams. Sounds logical, right? 

OK, now shut up and listen, Bears fans.  What if Darnold was a good quarterback all along, but playing on bad teams? Maybe the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers were not good teams. Their fan bases, like yours, believe that they are perpetual Super Bowl contenders were it not for their poisonous quarterbacks. In fact, however, those are awful organizations.  The Vikes, on the other hand, have a very good GM and they went to the playoffs four times in the ten years before Darnold, twice with Kirk Cousins, once with Case Keenum, and once with Teddy Bridgewater.  So maybe you don't need to have a generational talent to win as many as 13 games in the NFL.  Give Darnold credit for getting them to 14, but Case Keenum got them 13 and so did Kirk Cousins.  By the way, the Guru Offensive Coordinator for Cousins was Kevin Stefanski.

The super prospect, like John Elway or Andrew Luck is supposed to have arm strength, size, speed, accuracy, playmaking skill, readmaking ability, a strong college resume and strong character.  How many of these qualities were evident in Caleb Williams?  

Williams has a strong arm; the same height as Baker Mayfield; a few pounds heaveier; playmaking skill was in great evidence in 2022 when he threw for 42 TDs versus only 5 picks.  He elected to not run the 40 yard dash in the Combine, but plenty fast.  The hardest thing to judge is accuracy and information processing because of the difference between the college game and the Pro game. In the college game, quarterbacks basically prove they can hit wide open targets; in the Pro game, the windows are much smaller and the reads are much more complex and the game is much faster.  There might just be a limit to how much you can know about a rookie quarterback.  Hence making a young quarterback first overall carries a certain element of risk.  Cleveland fans, do you remember how many of your were crying for Mitchell Trubisky instead of boring old defensive end Myles Garrett?  

How do you ruin a young quarterback?  This is an art form which has been perfected in Cleveland.  First, give him a team with a lousy offensive line so that he can get sacked a lot and develop some bad habits.  Second, don't give him a running back, make everything depend on the passing game.  Third, avoid possession receivers and tight ends; instead go for speed demon wide receivers with stone hands and go for the bomb as often as possible. None of this ground and pound stuff.  Make the quarterback earn his paycheck. 

So what did Caleb's first season look like?  Well, he led the NL in getting sacked with a whopping 68, 16 more than the next highest.  He was 33rd in passing yards per attempt.  As a team the Bears were 25th in rushing yards, so all the pressure is in fact on the passing game, as no help is available from the running game.  So yeah, we basically see the same factors in Chicago that fit the Cleveland formula. 

So, Caleb, Chicago has got this hard-ass coach, Ben Johnson, who is a certified Guru based on Sam Darnold having a good year, and so the Chicago Bears fan base is convinced that this is the year for you to emerge as a Franchise Quarterback. 

This observer doesn't buy it, however. The Vikings had a very good team in 2024, with All-World Justin Jefferson at WR1, and running back Aaron Jones turning in over 1100 rushing yards and over 1500 total yards from scrimmage. So no wonder the quarterback performed well. But if you were to trade Darnold back to the Jets, he would probably still underperform. Since Aaron Rodgers put up similarly unimpressive numbers during his brief tenure in the Big Apple, that is a strong indicator that the franchise theory is hogwash.  Football is a team game, it's not just about one guy. So Ben Johnson may not actually have magical Guru powers, and he may not be enough to propel Caleb to the superstardom that Bears fans think they deserve. 

A few stud linemen and a premier running back would make the offense run a lot better.  Once you have a real offense, then you might learn more about the quarterback.  

 

Football Reasons Why Deshaun Hasn't Had Success in Cleveland--Yet

Unfortunately, maybe it does make sense.  

The signing of Deshaun Watson is regarded as the worst signing in NFL history because not only did the Browns fork over a record amount of money, but they also gave up six draft picks including 3 number one picks.  A trade of this magnitude would not make sense even for a superstar quarterback, but for a player who achieved a passer rating of 80 over three years, it is terrible.  But why did Watson's performance slide, and can he be brought back to some semblance of his former successful self?

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see his success in Houston happened with a vastly different offensive style than he was trying to succeed with in Cleveland. Specifically, in Houston Coach Bill O'Brien had the wisdom to set him up in a Triple Option offense, where he truly excelled. That is, a typical play starts with a (1) handoff (which would be a fake if it is a pass play) and then rollout. Deshaun could (2) run the ball himself, or (3) throw the ball, either a screen or downfield.  

In 2020, he threw for an incredible 4823 yards, numero uno in the NFL.  If you look at the snap counts in the O'Brien era, you will see that they were usually not deploying extra wide receivers, but often had two tight ends or two running backs in order to make that triple option offense go.  

In 2020, Watson also got sacked 49 times, second in the NFL. Deshaun also ran the ball 90 times, which hurts just as much as a sack. He also took 47 quarterback hits. That is, he got tackled 186 times that year. Despite his yardage totals, perhaps that is a good football reason for wanting out of Houston and wanting a different style of offense. You have to ask how long he would be able to take that kind of pounding.

Hence when he went to Cleveland he wanted to be part of a downfield passing offense, similar to the Buffalo Bills offense, which this writer derisively refers to as Air Deshaun.  But from Watson's point of view, it makes sense.  The guy had had two ACL surgeries and getting hit 186 times a season would be a terrible idea for a five-year investment. Hence the Browns scrapped the Stefanski run-first concept. After trying unsuccessfully to convert Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt to a vertical passing specialist, they hired Ken Dorsey, the former Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator.  By the way Dorsey had been fired by the Bills (too many Josh Allen INTs), so he might not have been the total answer after all.  In any case, Air Deshaun was a flop.  

Even at Clemson, where Watson was unquestionably brilliant, he did have a problem with interceptions, tossing 17 his senior year and 13 as a junior. Those interceptions, coupled with a slow ball velocity measurement at the Combine, spooked this writer, so I did not have Watson rated as a first round draft pick at all. But maybe that skeptism about Watson was partly justified if we were evaluating Watson as a pocket passer.  Again, Watson's NFL success was as the World's Greatest Triple Option QB, not as a pocket passer.  Credit Coach Bill O'Brien for designing an offense that maximized Watson's effectiveness, but we also understand why Watson hated it and why it could not last forever. 

Now, what about the Stefanski offense? He does not utilize the triple option per se, but Flacco is really good at the run pass option (RPO). Like the 2020 Texans' offense, Stefanski loves two and even three tight end formations, but does not expose the quarterback as much as the Texans did.  The classic Stefanski offense runs the ball more often than it throws the ball.  Boring!  Make no mistake, quarterbacks, not just Deshaun, love to sling the ball over the ballyard.  But Stefanski has had great success as an OC and HC with veteran quarterbacks like Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco.  Maybe if Deshaun can commit himself to the boring Stefanski offense and run the ball behind six foot eight Dawand Jones, he might yet prove to be an effective QB again, if called upon.

The Browns would like to put Watson on the PUP list all year, but that may not be possible if he wants to play and the docs give him a clean bill of health. The Browns cannot cut him this year unless they can  find $167 million of cap space to absorb his  remaining contract and they can't.  Hence he may wind up as the third string quarterback and he probably won't play again.  However, never say never.  They used four starting quarterbacks in 2024, and five in 2023.  

Why the Browns are Financially Broke Now till 2028

 

Your Cleveland Browns are forced to underspend the salary cap in 2025, 2026 and 2027 compared to their AFC North rivals because of Deshaun Watson's $167 million of cap charges oer the next three seasons, plus another $92 million in dead money over the same period, and probably much more if they cut or trade overpaid players to liberate cap space. So that's at least $259 million dollars over the next three seasons, and it is going to get worse before it gets better.  

It doesn't mean that the Browns are going to be terrible. The Denver Broncos were able to succeed in 2024 despite carrying $89 million in "dead cap" charges, mainly due to Russell Wilson's contract.  Nevertheless the Sashi Brown plan to spend our way to the Super Bowl is OVER.  

It's true that the Browns have some offsetting savings from past seasons, that money is more than cancelled out by $36 million dollar charge for Deshaun Watson and $68 million for former Browns stars including Amari Cooper, Zadarius Smith, Jed Wills, Dalvin Tomlinson, and several others.  

This season, we can guesstimate the actual amount they will spend on players not named Deshaun Watson by using the top 51 salaries pubished in OvertheCap.com and adding about 15 million dollars to cover the Practice Squad, injury replacements and late free agents. It's a bit of a shell game because teams can push money into the future by restructuring contracts to a certain extent. Nevertheless the total cap spent on players who are actually playing provides us a rough estimate of what the teams are actually investing in this season. That would say our Browns will come in at $216 million for money actually spent on players who actually play this season, while the Ravens will be at $249, the Bengals at $261 and Steelers $266. Thus, the Browns will spend about $30 million to $50 million less on their active players than their Division rivals this season, and it will get worse in 2026 and 2027.  

Those sportswriters who are writing stories about the Browns being able to afford trading first round draft picks and spending money on high priced contracts like Micah Parsons from the Cowboys are living in fantasyland. Quit reading that stuff!  Face it, the Browns ability to afford players who actually play is millions less than their AFC North rivals' this year, and it will probably get worse in 2026 and 2027. They simply need to recharge all the cash and draft picks that were blown on Deshaun, plus all the future-loaded contracts that are now coming due.  

The budget shortfall has been planned since 2022 when they signed Deshaun.  The idea was that they were going to overspend for as long as possible and try to win a Super Bowl and pay for it later. Well, they didn't win, and "later" has arrived.

Still, let's not give up hope.  A number of teams have won Super Bowls with the backup quarterback, including three in a row from 1999 to 2001: 1999 Rams with undrafted Kurt Warner, 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer, and the 2001 Patriots with second year man Tom Brady.  The most recent backup to bring home a Lombardi Trophy was Nick Foles and the 2017 Eagles.  

So, it's not good that the Browns are overspent for the next few years, but it's not impossible to win, either.  But can we at least stop overinvesting in quarterbacks? In addition to the well-publicized over-investiment in Deshaun, the Browns have burned through $22 milllion dollars in the Deshaun era and used five additional draft picks on quarterbacks in the past three years. This is preposterous! In 2026, with two first round picks (probably good ones, since the extra one is tied to Jacksonville), the temptation will be enormous to draft yet another quarterback, this time to replace Shedeur, if he does not win the Super Bowl as a rookie.   

I did not like the process that brought Shedeur to Cleveland, but here he is. He is the quarterback of the future, and no one else.  So stop wasting additional draft picks! 

A

$22,584,000

Za'Darius Smith

$14,233,000

Jedrick Wills

$11,812,057

Dalvin Tomlinson

$7,042,000

the money that they are spending on players not with the team, plus 

S

The Best Thing About Shedeur's Start With the Browns

He seems to be the same dude that he was in his Jackson State days, despite his automatic fame and being a rich kid.  

Shedeur's first game in the preseason was an unqualified success, the most impressive showing for a rookie since, um, Deshone Kizer in 2017.  Let's not go crazy about a few touchdown passes.

But what is the best thing about Shedeur's preseason?  

He has defused a potentially explosive political situation by recognizing what went wrong during the draft.  Namely, the threat of interference from his famous famous father, Coach Prime, who is a helluva football coach, is the reason he slid in the draft, NOT a perceived lack of ability. 

There was a real fear that an impetuous owner--like JH3--might want Coach Prime to be the next head coach of the Cleveland Browns to coach his famous son.  Who else would know how to get the most out of his son? But Shedeur gently defused the potential controversy by asking his famous father to stay away from Browns camp altogether.  Instead, Coach Prime visited the Tampa Bay Buccaneers camp to see his other son, Shilo Sanders as he attempts to make the team.  Accordingly, Coach Prime was in camp on Day One to visit his less famous son.

Truthfully, the entire draft process was screwed up this off-season, with the Browns once again way over-investing in quarterbacks.  They gave up on Dorian Thompson Robinson and bundled him with a fifth round pick for Kenny Pickett with one year left on his deal; used two picks on Shedeur and a third round pick on too-short-and-too-slow Dillon Gabriel in a move that made no sense to anyone.  Many observers believe that Jimmy Haslam wanted Shedeur. Like Jerry Jones, Haslam loves controversy and notoriety.  The whole process was flawed--but that does not mean that Shedeur might not be a very good quarterback.  

The best thing is that Shedeur, to the extent that he is able, is trying to make it on his own and avoid the politics of the coaching situation.  

 

Browns are Praying Some Team Will Give Them a Draft Pick for a Worthless QB

 So, the national media seems befuddled that the Browns are holding a four-way competition for the Browns starting quarterback job. "Gee, they are all so good, we can't decide!" Let me explain Brownspeak to those of you who are uninitiated.

The Browns do stupid things all the time, generally because of owner interference. So they need a cover story. The truth is that they are desperately hoping that some other NFL team out there is as dumb as the fan base and actually believes that there are four starting caliber quarterbacks. In that case, that NFL team might actually trade a future draft pick for one of the undesirable quarterbacks currently on the roster. Thus, the Browns are trying to not tip their hand as to which quarterbacks they prefer. 

How stupid is this?  Well, the hope is that other NFL GMs really are as dumb as us fans. There really is no decision at this point.  Dillon Gabriel is not as good as Shedeur Sanders, and Kenny Pickett is going to be a free agent in 2026. There was very little point in obtaining his services for one season, but they did that and gave up their developmental quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who they kept rushing into battle before he was ready, plus a Round 5 draft pick that could have been better used for, say, a wide receiver or defensive back.  But maybe by hyping up Pickett some team will decide to trade for him (?)  Good luck with this plan, Browns, but it does not seem likely.    

Next year they will be in position to draft a real quarterback in the first round while Deshaun Watson has $167 million left on his deal, payable over two years.  How will they afford a big contract for Pickett at the same time? No, Pickett would be gone, and anyway he is not that good or the Steelers would have kept him.

Hence they are stuck with Pickett. The cannot afford to throw away his services so he makes the team.  

Shedeur Sanders will not be traded because Jimmy Haslam loves him and also is no doubt intrigued by the idea of hiring Coach Prime to replace Kevin Stefanski if and when the Browns turn in another lackluster year this season, and that could very well happen. Should they start him Year One? Sure, if you want to ruin another good quarterback, why not? 

The main problem the Browns have is their roster is depleted due to investing six draft picks in Deshaun Watson as well as the financial investment which they will not finish paying off until 2027.  

Actually, the signing of Tyler Huntley as QB5 is not ridiculous.  If the Browns want to manage 40-year-old Flacco's workload, installing a "Wildcat" or quarterback option would not be crazy. Huntley could run that style of offense, and he could probably be stowed on the practice squad in the early going.  Of course players hate two-QB systems, but today's NFL is potentially a 21 game season, and you might rethink that and try to use your bottom-of-the-roster guys as best as possible.   

The truly inexplicable move is blowing a third round pick on Dillon Gabriel who is too short to throw passes over giant defensive linemen and too slow to roll out.  In college he was timed at 4.94 seconds in the 40 yard dash and he did not run the 40 at the Combine.  It's hard to believe he can be successful in today's NFL.  Drew Brees did it, but he was one in a thousand, and he was an inch taller and a few ticks faster. So Gabriel's chances are not zero, but something like 1000-to-1 against making it as a starter. 

40-year old Joe Flacco, who proved he can take a team to the playoffs is the obvious starter. The Browns fired him in 2024 because they were frightened of a potential quarterback controversy because, obviously, the fan base loved Joe much more than the perpetually ineffective Deshaun Watson.  Firing a quarterback due to fear of a "quarterback controversy" is a classic sign of a weak front office and weak ownership.  

Pretending that the other three are close to landing the first string job is just a show, with the hope that some other quarterback-hungry franchise will crack and offer a draft pick for one of them.  It's very unlikely.