NFL Bonkers Over First Round QBs--Again!

Once again teams traded up for quarterbacks in the first round, even thought most of the scouts felt that the 2017 qb class isn't that good.  It gives us an interesting opportunity to study what QBs are actually worth.

Trubisky went to Chicago for the 1st round 3rd overall pick, plus two third round picks, and a fourth round pick. Pat Mahomes cost Kansas city two number 1 picks, plus a number 3.  Deshaun Watson cost Texas  two first round picks. Jeepers peepers.  Adding up, its 5 number ones, 3 number threes and a number four.   

If you use the Schamm point system (table below), the Trubisky trade was worth 2300 + 255 + 195 + 67 = 2817 points.  That's about halfway between second overall and first overall.  

The 2016 NFL draft also featured some amazingly high picks burned on players not really rated that high.  To review,Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went first and second overall, and  Pax Lynch was taken in the late first round.   We coud also add Sam Bradford to the list, since he accounts for a number 1 and conditional number 4  pick.   As shown in the table, teams traded a total of 15 picks including 6 number one picks to land these four quarterbacks guys.  It's absolutely insane how much teams are willing to pay for quarterbacks.

In all, for qbs in the first round, the teams traded the following:

Teams Spent:                       Teams Got:
11 number one picks            Jared Goff
3 number twos,                    Carson Wentz
8 number threes.                  Pax Lynch
2 number 4 (conditional)      Sam Bradford
                                             Mitchell Trubiskey
                                             Pat Mahones
                                             DeShaun Watson


Jiminy Christmas, that's 24 draft picks including some really pricey ones, and I'm not real sure that any of these guys are really that good.  Jared Goff was All-Nothing in his first year, and Carson Wentz struggled, and Pax Lynch didn't play for the Broncos.  Sam Bradford was the best.  

Now let's see what happened for the rest of the draft.  

Teams spent:             Teams got:  

2 number twos          Dak Prescott
4 number threes       Jacoby Brissett
4 number fours         Cody Kessler
2 number fives          Connor Cook
5 number sixes.        Cardake Jones
2 number seven        Kevin Hogan
                                  Hackenberg, Christian
                                  Allen, Brandon
                                  Rudock, Jake
                                  Sudfeld, Nate
                                  Driskel, Jeff
                                  Doughty, Brandon

                                  DeShone Kizer
                                  Davis Webb
                                  CJ Beathard
                                  Joshua Dobbs
                                  Nathan Peterman
                                  Brad Kaaya
                                  Chad Kelly

If you believe in the Brandt draft point system, the mid-first round iis worth roughly  1000 points, 2nd round is 400 points, 3rd round is 200 points 4th round 70, 5th round 35 6th round 20 and 7th round 10.  In rough terms the high group cost the teams some 13000 Brandt points, and the bottom group about 2000 points

So, obviously if the NFL knows as much about quaterbacks as they think, the first round guys should be worth SIX TIMES what the bottom guys were worth.  In particular, in theory Goff was worth SEVENTY FIVE (75) TIMES Dak Prescott.  Um, anyone notice a problem here?  

There were some standouts in 2016 from the later rounds. In addition to Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler clearly outperformed Goff, Wentz and Lynch, at least in year 1.  

I would bet against Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson ever being able to justify the enormous faith that their teams placed in them.  On the other hand, I like the chances of guys like Kizer, Webb, Kelly and Kaaya to exceed expectations.    

Brandt Point Value versus Overall Draft Pick Number

Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5		Round 6		Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2