Once again teams traded up for quarterbacks in the first round, even thought most of the scouts felt that the 2017 qb class isn't that good. It gives us an interesting opportunity to study what QBs are actually worth.
Trubisky went to Chicago for the 1st round 3rd overall pick, plus two third round picks, and a fourth round pick. Pat Mahomes cost Kansas city two number 1 picks, plus a number 3. Deshaun Watson cost Texas two first round picks. Jeepers peepers. Adding up, its 5 number ones, 3 number threes and a number four.
If you use the Schamm point system (table below), the Trubisky trade was worth 2300 + 255 + 195 + 67 = 2817 points. That's about halfway between second overall and first overall.
The 2016 NFL draft also featured some amazingly high picks burned on players not really rated that high. To review,Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went first and second overall, and Pax Lynch was taken in the late first round. We coud also add Sam Bradford to the list, since he accounts for a number 1 and conditional number 4 pick. As shown in the table, teams traded a total of 15 picks including 6 number one picks to land these four quarterbacks guys. It's absolutely insane how much teams are willing to pay for quarterbacks.
Teams Spent: Teams Got:
11 number one picks Jared Goff
3 number twos, Carson Wentz
8 number threes. Pax Lynch
2 number 4 (conditional) Sam Bradford
Jiminy Christmas, that's 24 draft picks including some really pricey ones, and I'm not real sure that any of these guys are really that good. Jared Goff was All-Nothing in his first year, and Carson Wentz struggled, and Pax Lynch didn't play for the Broncos. Sam Bradford was the best.
Now let's see what happened for the rest of the draft.
Teams spent: Teams got:
2 number twos Dak Prescott
4 number threes Jacoby Brissett
4 number fours Cody Kessler
2 number fives Connor Cook
5 number sixes. Cardake Jones
2 number seven Kevin Hogan
If you believe in the Brandt draft point system, the mid-first round iis worth roughly 1000 points, 2nd round is 400 points, 3rd round is 200 points 4th round 70, 5th round 35 6th round 20 and 7th round 10. In rough terms the high group cost the teams some 13000 Brandt points, and the bottom group about 2000 points
So, obviously if the NFL knows as much about quaterbacks as they think, the first round guys should be worth SIX TIMES what the bottom guys were worth. In particular, in theory Goff was worth SEVENTY FIVE (75) TIMES Dak Prescott. Um, anyone notice a problem here?
There were some standouts in 2016 from the later rounds. In addition to Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler clearly outperformed Goff, Wentz and Lynch, at least in year 1.
I would bet against Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson ever being able to justify the enormous faith that their teams placed in them. On the other hand, I like the chances of guys like Kizer, Webb, Kelly and Kaaya to exceed expectations.
Brandt Point Value versus Overall Draft Pick Number