Wednesday, May 7, 2014

The Village Elliot's Predictions for the 2014 NFL Draft-Cleveland Browns

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POST SCRIPT:  I got everything wrong.  I was sort of right that they did not trade up for Manziel, and did not draft him at four.  I was also right that the qbs would go  a little later, for the most part. But I am surprised that the Browns had Manziel ranked so highly.

My upset prediction that Khalil Mack would be the top pick also whiffed.  

Watkins did not slide, and in fact Buffalo traded up for him, giving the Browns a fantastic deal. 

Jake Matthews was apparently not the obvious pick at #4.

The Browns did trade up from #26, although not for Derek Carr but instead Johnny Manziel.  

The Cowboys had some restraint to not take Manziel at #16.  I know that hurt.

whiff! whiff!  whiff!  whiff! whiff!

The Village Elliot whiffed on just about all predictions.  I did get it right that two other Texa A&M guys were selected ahead of Manziel, and I was also right that the qbs were taken mid to late first round.   before However, the draft party at Roosters was really, really fun.  I hope we can do that again. 

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   This is really impossible, trying to predict the unpredictable NFL draft, but here goes.  It should be good for a laugh, at least...
1.  The Browns are not drafting Johnny Manziel.  This was decided when Joe Banner was fired by the Browns.  In Banner's mock draft, Manziel was the clear number one overall pick, but Banner was going to make a brave move by bunding three or four first round picks for Houston's first overall pick.  Then the Browns would install a pistol read option offense.  Coach Rob Chudzinksi and OC Norv Turner balked and they were fired.  They bounced the idea off several head coaching candidates and they walked out.  Finally owner Jimmy Haslam figured out that Banner was a crackpot and fired him.   I don't think they are going back to Banner's plan.
Since Banner has been fired, I don't see the Browns going back to the original plan of drafting Johnny Manziel.

2.  Khalil Mack and Jadeveon Clowney will probably go 1-2.  They are the premier defensive picks.  I see Mack going to Houston and Clowney to the St Louis Rams. 

3.  Sammy Watkins will slide a little bit.  Most reporters say that Sammy Watkins is a sure-fire All Pro, but I don't agree.  Early on, they were saying that he was 6'2" and could run a 4.2 or 4.3 40 yard dash.  In reality he measured up at 6'1" and ran a 4.4 at Pro Day, which is very good but not what we were promised.  But for some reason the press continues to rate him with the Top 5 sure-fire Pro Bownl athletes.  My guess is that he slides a few spots, maybe to 9 or 10.   I think Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans will be drafted ahead of Watkins, maybe even by the Browns.   
Sammy Watkins is really good.  But it's a deep class and Mike Evans might be even better. 

4.  I see stud left tackle Greg Robinson going next to the Jaguars, leaving Jake Matthews as the next best guy, also a left tackle.  The Browns will try to trade out, but probably won't get a taker, so I think they go ahead and take Matthews. You have to take a guy if you feel he is going to be an All Pro, even if you don't really need him.  So either Matthews or Joe Thomas will have to switch to the right side, with Mitchell Schwartz moving to guard.   The Browns will run the ball AND pass it in 2014. 


Jake Matthews is the nephew of Clay Matthews and son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews.  Gotta take a guy like that even if you don't really need to fill a left tackle.   


5.  The Browns will try to trade up from Number 26 to take a quarterback. I think they will try to get Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Blake Bortles or Terry Bridgewater, probably in the teens.  I think Johnny Manziel will also go around that range, maybe at number 16 to Dallas.   Jerry Jones can not pass him up.  The Cowboys had a historically bad defense last year, allowing the third highest yardage total in NFL history.  So what does a guy like Jerry Jones do to fix that defense?  That's right, draft a new quarterback. 


Is Jerry Jones crazy?  Yes.  That's why he is the most likely guy to have Johnny Manziel on his team. 


6.  A lot of teams like Derek Carr, and the Browns might not want to spend the firepower to get him.  The Browns may move up or stay at 26, and I think that Jimmy Garoppolo might be the guy they want.  The Browns may offer Ahtyba Rubin to a team like Oakland or Jacksonville to move up. 


7.  No matter what happens, it will be a lot of fun.  I'll be in Xenia Ohio with the Dice Brothers eating chicken wings and arguing. 

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