Elliot's 2015 Mock Draft 2.0 Cleveland Browns

   Of course it is impossible to predict who the Browns will draft this April 30, but that minor detail won't stop the Village Elliot.  
      Channelling my inner Ray Farmer, my overall plan is to build a tough defense and fix the worst ranked run defense in the NFL, while building a ball control, cold weather offense.  I don't think we are going to be in the top 15 in passing offense, but we could realistically build a top 5 running game, and that would be good enough to win and make the playoffs.  

     I know everyone wants a quarterback in Round 1. But I predict that we will not bundle a bunch of draft picks for the Tennessee Titans to move up and take Marcus Mariota.  The Philadelphia Eagles will do that because Chip Kelly is Mariota's former college coach.

     Plus in my view there are several quarterbacks with potential to be a starter in the NFL, but no superstars this year.  I think Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion are not far behind Mariota and Winston.  I think we can nab one in the second round or maybe as late as Round 4.

    In the first round, we have to stop the run, folks.  Last in the NFL is just not quite good enough, okay?  A lot of mock drafts have us taking Danny Shelton, massive beast who played the Nost Tackle position for Washington.  Originally I was on board with that, but then I found out that he ran a 5.66 time in the 40 yard dash.   Jimminy Christmas, there are old ladies at my Mom's retirement residence who can push their walkers faster than that.   Plus the 9 sacks he got don't translate to the NFL, as he got four in one game against a Division I AA team, and 2 more against an undermanned Hawaii team.    No, 5.66 is far too slow for the first round.   Instead I like Malcolm Brown, a nose tackle from Texas who had 71 tackles last year.   I'll go with him over Shelton who I believe is going to slide a bit.  

Then I have us taking La'el Collins, a terrific run blocking Right Tackle out of LSU.   Mitchell Schwartz is very good, but not dominant in the run game.   Mitchell and John Greco thus will fight it out for right guard, but we are going to run off right tackle this year.

La'el Collins is going to push people out of his way.  Draft him.  

I want a big physical receiver with good hands who can catch a wet ball in cold weather on a sloppy field.  I'm not opposed to a downfield burner who is at the top of his game in a dome stadium, but Browns fans have to get it into their brains that we really are trying to win playoff games in Cleveland in the near future.  David Funchess is a guy who is almost big enough to be a tight end. That's the guy I want in Round 2. 

As long as Petty, Hundley and Mannion are undrafted, the Browns may be content to hang back, even trading back a few spots.  But if necessary they will trade up to get one of the three.   Mannion is the most boring choice, and a few mocks are really down on him because he is slow.  But the Browns have pass blocking, and this kid has an arm that rivals Winston's.   Take him in Round 3 or even Round 2 if necessary. 

Sean Mannion looks good in bright orange.   

In Round 4, here again I am not thinking about Air Coryell, but again who fits a cold weather football team?   How about Jesse James, a big tight end from Penn State, one of the best run blockers among tight ends.  Then for the second pick in the round, let's take Trey  Flowers, an Outside Linebacker from Arkansas

I'm not talking about running once in a while for our Browns. No, I think we will need to run the ball 60% of the time.  I want to build a top 5 running game that is good for well over 2000 yards.  So even though we have two good backs, I draft a big running back in David Cobb from Minnesota in Round 5, and follow up with a fullback in Aaron Ripkowski from Oklahoma.  The Browns also need a punt returner, so how about someone like Marcus Murphy from Missouri.  He is a scatback running back and also ran back kickoffs and punts in college, and he  broke several kick returns for touchdowns in his career. 

In the seventh round, how about a kicker?   Justin Manton from Louisiana Monroe is an interesting guy because he is accurate, has a strong leg and can also punt.  I would look at him strictly as a placekicking challenger for Garrett Hartley.  

Round 1:   Malcolm Brown, NT, Texas

                 La'el Collins, ROT, LSU

Round 2:  Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan State

Round 3:  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

               

Round 4:   Jesse James, TE, Penn State

                 Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas

Round 5:  David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Round 6:  Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma
                Marcus Murphy, RB/KR Missouri

Round 7:   Justin Manton, K, Louisiana Monroe

Predictions for the 2015 NFL Draft

   The NFL Draft is fun because it is wacky and unpredictable.  I whiffed completely on most predictions I made in 2014 starting with saying the Browns would NOT draft Johnny Manziel due to Banner (a big advocate of JFB) being fired.  Nevertheless I'm willing to make predictions again this year.  

1. Winston and Mariota will go 1-2 this year because the league is completely nuts about quarterbacks.  Neither one is really that attractive as a draft pick and in fact to me Winston should be sent to the second round because of his off-the-field issues.   

Marcus Mariota's reaction upon hearing that the Browns will not draft him. 

2.  Philadelphia will trade a boatload of picks to the Titans for the privilege of signing Marcus Mariota. It's obvious that he is more valuable to a team coached by the guy who recruited Marcus for Oregon.   Most of those picks might be 2016 picks, and the Titans might use those picks to trade back in to the later rounds of 2015.   Philly will seek to deal spare qbs Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford to obtain additional picks in 2015 also.

3.  The Browns number one pick will be a 300 pounder, maybe Danny Shelton a Nose Tackle from Washington, but lately I have started to like Malcolm Brown from Texas, who is not as slow as Shelton.  Man, we need some help there. Most of the offseason news has been about not having the right quarterback, but the greatest chance for improvement is run defense.  

Brett Hundley will play in the NFL but so will  Malcolm Brown!

3.  The Browns will draft a qb, but not in the first round.   National media thinks we are desperate for a quarterback but this is not so.  We still have not figured out whether Manziel can play, but in the meantime we have respectable hedges in Josh McCown, Thad Lewis,  and Connor Shaw. Nothing wrong with these players, and just as Charlie Batch compiled a winning record for the Steelers in a long career, so might one of these guys as a backup for the Browns.   Anyway, I don't think they will give up on Manziel, but they will bring in some honest competition.  My sleeper qb pick is Sean Mannion, who is not fast but has great accuracy and arm strength.   I believe long term he will have a better career than Jameis Winston without the off the field nonsense. I think Farmer prefers a more mobile guy, however.   

4.  The Browns will also sign an undrafted free agent who is eligible for the Practice Squad.  I think the Browns will try to send Connor Shaw to the Practice Squad in 2015, but he may not clear waivers.  If so, they will need another guy.   Hence they just about have to pick up a UFA qb.  It's a battle for fourth string.   

5.  The Browns will draft an Offensive Lineman, either in a high round as a starter or a late round to add depth.  When Alex Mack went down the entire OL fell apart and nobody wants that to happen again.  Moving Joel Bitonio to Right Tackle is an option, but I think they would rather draft a big RT and slide Mitchell Schwartz to guard.   John Greco will be the new backup center/guard.  

6.  The Browns may draft a wr in a late round, but they are not desperate for WR this year.  WRs Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel and Miles Austin were above average last year, with Josh Gordon only a shadow of his former self.  The guy we are really trying to replace is Austin, and we have upgraded that position with Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline. The Browns have depth at that position but no superstars. 

7.   The Browns will consolidate some picks by trading up a few times, or else will trade 2015 picks for 2016 picks.  The have enough depth that they won't be able to carry 10 guys from the draft.  Six is a more reasonable number, particularly if we want to try to hit on undrafted free agents again this year (remember we got three part time starters that way, in Isaiah Crowell, K'Waum Williams and Taylor Gabriel).  

8.  Fans will cry that they didn't get a great new quarterback and speed demon wide receiver, but the team will come away much improved.     

Elliot's Mock Draft for the Browns 2015

Of course it is impossible to predict who the Browns will draft this April 30, but that minor detail won't stop the Village Elliot.  Channelling my inner Ray Farmer, my overall plan is to build a tough defense and fix the worst ranked run defense in the NFL, while building a ball control, cold weather offense.  I don't think we are going to be in the top 15 in passing offense, but we could realistically build a top 5 running game, and that would be good enough to win and make the playoffs.  

I know, I know everyone wants a quarterback in Round 1.  But I predict that we will not bundle a bunch of draft picks for the Tennessee Titans to move up and take Marcus Mariota.  The Philadelphia Eagles will do that because Chip Kelly is Mariota's former college coach.

Plus in my view there are several quarterbacks with potential to be a starter in the NFL, but no superstars this year.  I think Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion are not far behind Mariota and Winston.  I think we can nab one in the second round.

In the first round, we have to stop the run, folks.  Last in the NFL is just not quite good enough, okay?  A lot of mock drafts have us taking Danny Shelton, massive beast who played the Nose Tackle position for Washington.  But his 40 yard dash time is slow beyond belief and his sack totals, achieved via mammoth games against second tier teams, will not translate to the NFL.  There are glaciers that move faster.  It might be that Malcolm Brown is actually a better player at this position, but I'm okay with Shelton.

Then I have us taking La'el Collins, a terrific run blocking Right Tackle out of LSU.   Mitchell Schwartz is very good, but not dominant in the run game.   Mitchell and John Greco thus will fight it out for right guard, but we are going to run off right tackle this year.

La'el Collins is going to push people out of his way.  Draft him.  

As long as Petty, Hundley and Mannion are undrafted, the Browns may be content to hang back, even trading back a few spots.  But if necessary they will trade up to get one of the three.   Mannion is the most boring choice, and a few mocks are really down on him because he is slow.  But the Browns have pass blocking, and this kid has an arm that rivals Winston's.   Take him.

Sean Mannion looks good in bright orange.   

I want a big physical receiver with good hands who can catch a wet ball in cold weather on a sloppy field.  I'm not opposed to a downfield burner who is at the top of his game in a dome stadium, but Browns fans have to get it into their brains that we really are trying to win playoff games in Cleveland in the near future.  David Funchess is a guy who is almost big enough to be a tight end. That's the guy I want in Round 3. 

In Round 4, here again I am not thinking about Air Coryell, but again who fits a cold weather football team?   How about Jesse James, a big tight end from Penn State, one of the best run blockers among tight ends.  Then let's take Trey  Flowers, an Outside Linebacker from Arkansas

I'm not talking about running once in a while for our Browns.  No, I think we will need to run the ball 60% of the time.  I want to build a top 5 running game that is good for well over 2000 yards.  So even though we have two good backs, I draft a big running back in David Cobb from Minnesota in Round 5, and follow up with a fullback in Aaron Ripkowski from Oklahoma.  

In Round 7, I'm taking a chance with Karlos Williams another big strong running back with character issues.  But in Round 7 you have to take risks. 

Round 1:  Malcolm Brown, NT, Texas

                 La'el Collins, ROT, LSU

Round 2:  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

Round 3:  Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan State

               

Round 4:   Jesse James, TE, Penn State

                 Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas

Round 5:  David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Round 6:  Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma

Round 7:  Karlos Williams, RB Florida State

What Should the Browns Do With Johnny Manziel?

   This is actually not so complicated. The Browns should keep Johnny Manziel on the roster as long as he is good enough to be at least the third string quarterback.  You don't cut him unless there really are three guys that are clearly better.  I doubt whether that will be the case in 2015.

    Many enraged Browns fans, some with questionable sanity, want to cut Manziel immediately, feeling that he has betrayed them by not being an immediate superstar and for having a problem with substance abuse.   

      Let's deal with that right away:   If the Browns cut Johnny Manziel, they will be penalized because of the rules about guaranteed contracts.  The Browns would not save money by cutting Manziel. Their salary cap would be reduced in 2015 and they might have to cut payroll to make their cap limit. That would be stupid.   

       Sportrac lists that Manziel's 2015 "dead money" at  $6.5 M.  This is the amount of guaranteed money over the life of his contract, that has to be accounted for immediately when he is cut or traded.  That money has to come out of the Browns 2015 payroll.  Conversely if they keep him on the roster, they will have $4.6 Million dollars more to work with in 2015.   

     What about the risk of Manziel failing a drug test?   Well, what risk is that?    Nothing really bad happens to the Browns if he fails a test, other than he is not allowed to play.  They do not have to pay him if he is suspended!

What if Manziel has a positive drug test?  In that case the Browns are not penalized.   You can argue about the logic of the rule, but it clearly favors the Browns in this situation. 

If Manziel is as good as Seneca Wallace (a short third string qb who made some contributions to the Browns), he is worth keeping on the roster for another year.  How good do you really have to be to be a third string quarterback?  

       Suppose Manziel is not a superstar, but is good enough to be third on the depth chart for the Browns; say, as good as Seneca Wallace.   Yeah, he would be overpaid, but again that should be noted on Mr. Farmer's report card.  It's not the player's fault if the team gave him too much money.  But to reiterate, nothing bad happens to the Browns if he is second or third on the depth chart.   There is no reason why the Browns have to give him away if he doesn't establish himself as the starter in 2015.  

       Many Browns fans love to hate the second and third string qbs of the Browns.  But I'm calling into account the "Superstar or Bust" mentality of many Browns fans.  Who says every quarterback has to be a superstar?   This is not Fantasy Football where you have three quarterbacks and they are all Pro Bowl candidates.  Every team in the NFL has a backup quarterback who they think is good enough to win a couple games, and about half the teams have a third string quarterback at close to the league minimum.   You cut a guy if he is fourth string and you only have room for three guys. You don't cut a guy just because you're disappointed after two games or because you thought he would make the Hall of Fame his first year.   Right now the Browns have Josh McCown, Thad Lewis and Connor Shaw, and remember Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad if he can clear waivers, and my guess is he can.  

Is two games really enough to conclude that Manziel can not play in the NFL?  No.  We don't know what we've got yet.  

     It might be that the Browns drafted Manziel too early. They definitely expected way to much out of a kid entering the NFL after his sophomore year of college.  So blame that on the Browns brass, probably Jimmy Haslam who wanted him the most.  But that is not Manziel's fault. 

     The fact is that we don't know what he can do.  We know that he is one of the shortest qbs in the NFL (along with Russell Wilson of the Seahawks) and that he has a substance abuse problem.  We also know he failed to pick up the Browns' offense last year.   But he also has a first round caliber arm, and he has better than average speed and very good improvisational skills.    Let's see what he can do. Maybe he be a flop.  Maybe he'll be a star.  More likely he will be somewhere in between.  But we will never know if we don't keep him for another two years.  

    At the same time, we are not giving him the keys to the car automatically.  He is going to have to earn that by first proving that he can practice better than Josh McCown and the other challengers.   

    In previous years the Browns would create a number one quarterback by trading away the other candidates.  I think Farmer is going to bring some additional talent via the draft or trade. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota may be out of reach, but if either slips to about nine or ten, I could see the Browns moving up.   Alternatively Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley are  also candidates.  I would be surprised if we don't select at least one of them in the draft.   

     I think the Browns will ultimately form their depth chart with McCown at the top (for now), with Manziel, and a draftee competing for two additonal spots.  Thad Lewis has a a small chance of dislodging Manziel if Manziel does something completely awful, but my guess is that Manziel will survive that challenge.   Connor Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad one more year, and I think the Browns will be willing to expose him to waivers.   

     From here on out, Manziel will be treated like everyone else with a uniform number.  Hustle like hell if you want to earn a roster spot, my man.  I think it's very likely he will do so.  

.  

How Good Are Rookie Quarterbacks?

Fans loved Dan Snyder for making the bold move and trading four draft picks for star quarterback Robert Griffin III, who will be challenging Colt McCoy for a starting job this year. 

Football fans all hope for a "Magic Quarterback" in the NFL draft who will make an enormous impact as a rookie.   Even GM's and owners get caught up.  For example, in 2012 the Redskins famously gave up three first round picks and a second round pick in order to nab Robert Griffin III. 

So how realistic is it to expect a rookie to perform at a high level?  To answer this question, I took a look at the rookie quarterbacks of the last 10 years, and evaluated their quarterback rankings among league qualifiers.  Note that many rookies (probably about half of the first round draft choices) didn't even qualify their first year.  For example, the Raiders blew a first round pick on Jamarcus Russell, who was so bad that he didn't get enough appearances to qualify on the leader board in 2007.  Similarly the Packers took Aaron Rodgers in 2005, but he had a guy named Favre ahead of him and had to sit.    

The results are rather depressing for the "Magic Quarterback" theory.  On the average, rookie quarterbacks were ranked about 22nd in the league, using the standard quarterback rating system as published on ESPN.  The high water mark was 2012, when Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson had outstanding years.  Three teams--the Redskins, Seahawks and Colts--had good years with their rookie quarterback.   However, since 2005, Griffin and Wilson were the only two rookies  to finish in the Top 10. Getting a top 10 performer happens only once every five years or so.  And there are a lot of 1st round draft picks that never make it at all. Not a pleasant prospect.

Last year, the best quarterback was Teddy Bridgewater, who ranked 22nd in the league.  Blake Bortles was the first quarterback taken, but ranked 33rd in the league.  

  
So is a rookie quarterback a quick fix for the Browns or any other team?  I don't think so.  Wait a year or two, and then you might have something.  


2014  
Teddy Bridgewater 22
Derek Carr 30
Blake Bortles 33

2013
Mike Glennon 21
Geno Smith   37

2012
Robert Griffin     3
Russell Wilson   4
Andrew Luck    26
Ryan Tannehill 27
Brandon Weeden 29

2011
Cam Newton  15
Chistian Ponder 30
Blaine Gabbert 33

2010
Sam Bradford  25
Jimmy Clausen 31

2009 
Mark Sanchez 28
Matthew Stafford 29
Josh Freeman   30

2008 
Matt Ryan 11
Joe Flacco  22

2007

(no qualifiers)

2006

Matt Leinart 23

Vince Young 30

2005

Kyle Orton 34

Does Haslam Want to Own the Titans? Too Good to be True!

Let's think about this for a minute.  Would it be good to have the Browns owned by local business interests, perhaps with someone like Bernie Kosar fronting the ownership group?  Or are the Browns better off with Jimmy Haslam III running th show?  
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     It's probably a crock, but Joseph LaCanfora of ESPN has reported that Browns owner Jimmy Haslam III is interested in exploring the possibility of becoming the new owner of the Tennessee Titans, which is on the market due to the death of its longtime owner Bud Adams.  

     This is too good to be true.  LaCanfora's scenario, in which Haslam would take over the Tennessee Titans and then sell the Browns to Tennessee investors, doesn't make sense.  Why would a Tennessee ownership group want to take over a Cleveland Team instead of the Tennessee team?     
       If Haslam is interested in the Titans, it would make sense for the Cleveland area business people to come together to form an ownership group that could take over the team from Haslam.   And it wouldn't hurt at all to have someone with Browns connections, someone like Bernie Kosar, at the forefront of an ownership group.  

     That would be infinitely better than trusting the team to Tennessee oilman Jimmy Haslam.  Oddly, however, Browns fans have for the most part reacted with anger to the suggestion that Haslam might sell the team. In only a few years, Haslam has become totally beloved by most Cleveland fans.  It's like he is Ghandi or something.  I have no idea why.  

    Haslam has done some good things for the Browns, including getting a new deal done with the City of Cleveland that will help keep the franchise viable in Cleveland.  And he fired Joe Banner, which I feel had to be done.  

The Cleveland fan base is basically convinced that Jimmy Haslam is fiercely loyal to the city of Cleveland, and would never try to make money at their expense.   

       But he has also done some terrible things.  From a football point of view, it's rumored that he squashed front office attempts to get rid of Josh Gordon, and he instigated for the signing of Johnny Football as the team's first round draft pick in 2014, overruling Ray Farmer.   It's an established fact that several coaching candidates turned down the opportunity to come to Cleveland, not being willing to deal with Haslam or former General Manager and all-around genius, Joe Banner.   

    Haslam has also allowed his company Pilot Flying J to become embroiled in a multimillion dollar scandal involving fraudulent discounts for diesel fuel.  This is not the kind of publicity that the team needs.  

  

     Meantime no one seemed to notice that Haslam originally promised that he was going to move to Cleveland and become a full time resident owner for the team and reneged on both promises.  Instead, he has become a PART time NON-resident owner, maintaining his residence in Tennessee after un-retiring as CEO of Pilot Flying J.  Few people seemed to realize that it happened, and fewer still cared.  Local ownership is far more likely to fight to keep the franchise in Cleveland.  

     Most fans remain cheerfully ignorant, believing that they are so loved by the NFL that they would never be abandoned by Commissioner Goodell and the other good-hearted NFL owners. Moreover, the Browns have a strong lease agreement!  Why, isn't it impossible to break such an agreement?  

     Yeah, sure, kids.   Jimmy Haslam is so honest, he would NEVER hire a lawyer to exploit the loopholes in the Browns current lease agreement.     THAT CAN'T HAPPEN.   What am I thinking? 

    My favorite argument is that Jimmy Haslam is so wealthy that he is no longer motivated by money, and the increase in value (something like 500 million dollars) that would be created by moving the Browns to London or Los Angeles would not interest him.   Right, kids.   

   

     Let's consider that seriously for a moment. 

      Hahahahahahaha!   No, let's not.   

     Although there is adequate precedent for owners changing teams (for example the Ram's Robert Irsay swapped his team for Carroll Rosenbloom's Baltimore Colts, with BOTH franchises ultimately moving), a botched attempt to swap teams would be a public relations nightmare.  For that reason, I seriously doubt whether Haslam would consider it unless he were sure that he could get the deal done in advance.  I don't think Haslam can take that kind of risk given his fragile position with Pilot Flying J, not to mention the Browns.     

The Village Elliot's QB Rankings for the 2015 NFL Draft

    Last year, the Village Elliot suggested that Derek Carr and Joey Garoppolo were the best qbs in the draft, and that Johnny Manziel was the fifth best qb in the draft, with Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater in between.

     This year, the Village Elliot again says that there is no superstar Andrew Luck prospect in the draft, but there are some guys who are good enough to start in the NFL.  This year I think there are six guys that will get a decent shot at a starting job eventually.  I predict Winston and Mariota will go 1-2 this year, but I believe both are overrated, and not really "franchise quarterbacks."   I rate Mariota as a mid-first round pick, and Winston somewhat behind Mariota.

    But even if the Browns trade up for either quarterback, I would not expect for him to be very good in 2015, and Josh McCown is a better option to start the season with.   I predict that no rookie qb will break into the top 25 of NFL quarterbacks this year.    

Without further ado, my predictions and analysis follow:

1. Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon, Height: 6-4. Weight: 219. 40 Time:  4.52 sec.

     I have Mariota as the best quarterback in a weak qb draft, mainly based on his reputation as a workaholic student of the game, plus his demonstrated ability to avoid interceptions. Arm strength is not as good as Famous Jameis Winston, but the accuracy is there. I think the business about not being under center in college is overrated.  Historically, first round quarterbacks have always been hard to predict. It's just a big adjustment from college to the NFL regardless of whether the kid has run a pro style offense or not.   If the kid is really a top athlete, he will eventually figure out the footwork associated with a pro style offense.  

     On the other hand,  it is particularly rare for a quarterback to perform well as a rookie, so in general I'm against taking quarterbacks too high. Nevertheless, fans and even pro teams consistently pin their hopes on a rookie quarterback to lead a quick turnaround, but it hardly ever happens.  Even if you look at the 2012 draft in which Luck, RG3 and Russell Wilson all excelled as rookies, they actually did not rank exceptionally high in their first year.  So if I were a GM I would probably consider Mariota as about the tenth best player in the draft, and I don't think he will be a great pro until 2016 or 2017.  But I think he will go number two overall.  

Marcus Mariota got beat up by OSU last year, but he might be the best guy out there.  Not sure that I agree with those who want to trade away three or four first rounders for him. 

2.  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State, Height 6-6 Weight: 229 40 time:  5.14.

   There are glaciers that move faster than Sean Mannion, which is why many observers rank him as sixth or seventh round pick. In the NFL draft, evaluators hate slow quarterbacks.  However, in his junior year he threw for 4600 yards at Oregon State.   The career passing leader in the Pac-12 is not Marcus Mariota, but Sean Mannion.   Plus he has the reputation of being a very good student of the game, very diligent in his preparation.  I think he is the third or even second best quarterback in the draft, slightly ahead of Brett Hundley and Bryce Petty. I might be crazy, but Joel Klatt of Foxsports is saying the same thing.  I think he could possibly start in his rookie year, but would not be very good.  He might rank 30th in the league, say.  I would take him in the second  round, but I think he will go much later than that because of his lack of speed and scrambling ability.  I could also see drafting him ahead of Winston, based on lower risk.  

The Village Elliot will draft the 6 foot 6 kid to play qb if we need someone in the second round.  

3.   Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State, Height: 6-4. Weight: 231.  40 Time: 4.97. 

     Winston is the best passer in the draft, no question.  I don't mind him being slow, but I'm worried about his habit of finding trouble off the field.  It's not that he's a bad guy.  But to me the best quarterbacks are the guys that are totally immersed in football, fanatics about preparation in all phases of their lives, and never make missteps.  You can cite counterexamples, like Favre and Roethlisberger who were able to be great players, but I prefer the guy who lives and breathes football like Brady, Manning or Brees.   So I would want to learn more about his personality and work habits before falling in love with his arm.  Personally, I would send him all the way to the second round because of his off the field adventures,  but I believe he will go first overall because of his upside.  He is the best passer but has the most risk.   If I had to go with a sure thing, I would much rather have Mariota or even Sean Mannion. He will have a terrible first year quarterbacking Tampa Bay, much like Blake Bortles up the road in Jacksonsville.  

Browns fans, we are not trading half the team to get a quarterback who shoplifts crab legs.   We've had enough eccentric behavior from Johnny Football, thank you.   

4.  Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA, Height: 6-3. Weight: 227. 40 Time: 4.63. 

I have Hundley very close to Mannion, though most observers think that he is way better, ranking Hundley in the first round, with Mannion way back in the pack.  Hundley throws well, runs well and basically does everything well but does not have the gawdy stats in college that you would expect from a star performer.  Part of that was due to playing with a weak team with poor blocking from his offensive line. He did better in the combine than on the field, but I'm one that tends to judge the quarterback by his on-field performance more so than combine stats.  If you look at his results, he was definitely not as good as Mannion in college. So, I rank him as a second round pick, but he could go even in round 1, especially because of his excellent speed, which NFL scouts love.  

5.  Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor,  Height: 6-2. Weight: 230. 40 Time: 4.87. 

Bryce Petty is another guy who has been dinged for being a "system quarterback" (i.e., plays most of the time in a spread formation rather than under center), but this is not an overwhelming objection, in my opinion.  Petty can throw the ball, but his best year was actually his junior year when he threw for 32 TDs and only 3 INTs versus a 29/7 ratio this year.   Still, the Big 12 absolutely does not play pass defense and so take it for what it is worth.   Petty is a few ticks slower than  Hundley, and an inch shorter but probably very close in ability.   I think he may be drafted in the late second round, although some observers project him in the fourth round.  

6.  Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State, Height: 6-2. Weight: 215.  40 Time: 4.63. 

NFL scouts say Grayson is a decent prospect  with a strong arm that can make all the throws.  He has good speed and size and threw for 4000 yards with 32 TDs and only 7 INTs.  I would rather not start him in Year 1, but perhaps he could be developed into a good quarterback if there is a team willing to be patient with him (not the Browns!!).  

There are a number of other quarterbacks available in the draft, but in my view at least they are longshots.   These six are the ones that have the best chance of helping their teams as rookies, though it might be better to wait a year or two to let them develop.  

Free Agency: How are the Browns Doing, Really? As of March 16 2015

So how are we doing so far in free agency?  The Browns have spent more than I thought they would.  The one guy that has not been replaced is TE Jordan Cameron.  Looking at the major players:  

We get                                                    We lose
qb Josh McCown                              qb     Brian Hoyer
wr  Brian Hartline                              wr     Miles Austin  
NT  Randy Starks                             OLB  Jabaal Sheard
CB  Tramon Williams                        CB    Buster Skrine
                                                          TE    Jordan Cameron 
                                                          NT    Ahtyba Rubin
Retaining:

WR/KR Marlon Moore
DE  John Hughes
S Tayshaun Gipson (probably)
ILB Craig Robertson (probably)
S  Jonathan Bademosi (Probably)
DE Ismailyi Kitchen (Probably)

Jordan Cameron is the greatest talent but presents the greatest risk. 

To date Hoyer, Sheard, Skrine and Cameron have signed with other teams, and are costing their new teams about $24 Million.   The Browns free agents are costing about $20 Million.  On the whole, I prefer the players we are getting.

Thus, if you agree with this simple minded analysis, GM Ray Farmer may be doing a good job.   On the other hand, the expectation of the fans is to simply load up on a pricey quarterback and wide receivers.  So right now he is getting killed in the internet chat rooms.  Jordan is the big difference maker, but how healthy is he?  It's not a disaster that he left, despite his tremendous ability.

Browns Salary Cap Demystified

     Browns fans have totally gotten their hopes up by the oft quoted number that they have $41 M of salary cap room, figuring they can add $41 M of free agent salaries in 2015. THAT IS NOT TRUE. It's more like $7 M now, NOT $41 M.

Mr. Tashaun Gipson would like some of the $41 Million in Salary Cap Room that the sportswriters are talking about.  

     Let's review what goes into the "cap space."    First of all there is "carryover" money of $18 M because they underspent the past two years. They have permission to overspend $18 M (temporarily raising the total salaries to $162 Million instead of the NFL limit of $143 M), but they would then have to cut payroll by $18 M in 2016. That would not make sense, and is not going to happen.

  

     Teams that use their carryover are teams like the Dolphins who had an enormous free agent signing with Ndamukong Suh, not to mention former Brown Jordan Cameron.   But they will have to shrink the payroll in future years, so if they don't win this year it will be harder for them to improve.  As it is, they are cutting a number of veterans to try to shrink their payroll.  

    Also they are going to have the NFL Draft again this year, and that costs money,  like 8 million dollars worth, so all NFL teams including the Browns have to set aside money for that.   

   Plus the Browns have issued tenders (that is, formal offers) to  to Restricted Free Agents Gipson, Kitchen, Robertson and Bademosi. Basically that means that they are allowed to match offers that these players receive from other teams. The Browns would also be able to receive draft choices if they don't match the offers, but most of the time Restricted Free agents do indeed re-sign with their old team.   That will cost another $6 or $8 million or so. 

Ok, so ADD THE NUMBERS. Carryover plus draft money plus restricted agents totals $32 to $34 M by my estimate. As of today, the Browns have about $7 M to spend for additional free agent salary in 2015, not $41 M.  They could go a little higher if they dip into their carryover salary cap, as explained above.  But basically there is enough for one or two quality players, but not an army of All-Pro's.

     It also bears mention that the Browns are losing some good athletes including Cameron, Hoyer, Sheard and Skrine.  That's about $18 Million in 2015 cap charges right there.  Likely the Browns signings--notably McCown, Hartline and others to be determined, will be slightly below that level.  

How many wins is a high priced QB worth?

     Does getting a high priced quarterback correlate to extra wins in the NFL?   Yes, it does, sort of, but perhaps not as much as you might think.   I made a graph of the salary of the highest paid qb on the team in 2014 and compared that to the team win totals.  The results show that the teams with pricey quarterbacks usually do a little better than the teams with bargain basement quarterbacks, but still there are losing teams with very high priced qbs, and winning teams with low priced quarterbacks.  

       The main conclusion is that it depends on the team. You can't just spend money on a quarterback and create a winning team.  As the Chicago Bears about that one.  Or the New York Giants or Atlanta Falcons, both of whom weighed in with only six wins last year.     

   On the other hand some teams with low priced quarterbacks still excel.  Seattle is one such team that succeeded with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  The Eagles won 10 games with Nick Foles as their highest paid qb (and actually backup Mark Sanchez played a lot after Foles was injured). The Browns had a very low priced quarterback in Johnny Manziel (yes he was actually higher priced than Brian Hoyer), but the Browns were quasi-respectable with seven wins last year.   

       This year the Browns have moved up to the 27th highest paid quarterback in the person of Josh McCown, pending the probable addition of at least one other serious contender for starting quarterback position.  Many fans assume that that dooms the team to another season of mediocrity.  Maybe so, but there is more than one way to win a football game.  By not signing a high priced quarterback, there is more salary available, say for two Pro-Bowl calibre players at other positions.  Which is better to have?    A serious case can be made that it may not be worth spending eighteen million dollars for a single player, no matter how good he is.   

    Still the small data set for 2014 is consistent with the view that there is a payoff in having a top quarterback,and that he might be worth an extra win or two compared to a team with a below average quarterback.