Showing posts with label Josh McCown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh McCown. Show all posts

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Why Everyone is Wrong About Johnny Manziel


  The whole world is crazy because of Johnny Manziel. Should the Browns cut him because he is a drug abuser? Should we fire General Manager Ray Farmer for drafting him in the first place?   Or should he be promoted to the starter's position in place of "boring" veteran Josh McCown? Is Manziel a superstar in the making?  

    I think all this is nonsense and Manziel is going to develop more or less like any other young quarterback.  People who expect instant results, good or bad, are wrong.  I think more than anything else he needs time to develop and trying to accelerate the process isn't going to work. 
   
    Manziel came out of college not one but two years early. He is actually a few months younger than Cardale Jones. Normal quarterback development results in starting by the second year after graduation, and sometimes during the rookie year.  If the Browns wanted instant results they should not have taken a guy who is so young.  Moving to the NFL did not necessarily accelerate his football development. He's still only 22 years old. The guy wound up in rehab, so apparently his personal development is not all that advanced either.  

     Based on his graduating class, 2016 should be his rookie season, and if didn't start his first year, 2017 might be his first year to put up numbers.  Anything that happens earlier than that is strictly a bonus.   The whole idea that his development is going to be accelerated because he came of college early is ridiculous, and I might add it's never been done before, because the NFL only recently allowed sophomores to be drafted. More than likely, he isn't going to develop any faster than Cardale Jones, and the expectation for instant success is completely fictitious.  That doesn't mean he is terrible.

   Most quarterbacks improve greatly from their first to second year, and don't emerge as a star until about age 23 or 24.  It would be great if Manziel would be a superstar right now, but that is not expected.  Normal development is for him to become a competent NFL starter in 2016 or 2017.   That's the track he should be on.   This business of needing to make a decision on starting him or cutting him immediately at age 22 is ABSURD and PATHOLOGICALLY STUPID.      



   Manziel did  some very stupid things in his rookie year.   It should have been his junior season at Texas A&M.  He's a kid, and not a very mature one at that.  Why would anyone expect a college junior to be a big and immediate success in the NFL?

   The Browns do not need to be in a hurry to "find out what they have."   This is just total fabrication by the sports media, because they would be the ones who would benefit.  First of all, football teams need to play to win every game, and if they play for next year they will not be able to attract players to their team. It's ridiculous to not field the best starting quarterback and to start the 2016 pre-season in 2015. If Manziel gives us the best chance to win, go for it.  But if not, let's hold off.

     Second, if we do rush him into action Manziel would probably struggle on a team with no running game and only one deep ball threat among wide receivers in Travis Benjamin.  Will that tell you how to set up your draft priorities in 2016?  I doubt it.  


    Even if he looks great, would we ever reach the point where we consider him to be irreplacable and quit looking for quarterbacks in the draft?  I doubt it.  And anyway Jerry Jones would outbid us in 2019 when Manziel becomes a free agent.  So just forget about making a ten year commitment to a young Peyton Manning.  That is just not going to happen.  The whole debate is insipid.

    Nothing really great happens by playing Manziel unless he is really the best option on a given Sunday.  
  

 Manziel is under contract through 2017 with an option year for 2018. Maybe Texas A&M would have been the ideal situation for him, and maybe the Browns should have taken him in a later round, but that's over the dam now.   He's here and practicing and getting better and also getting some game experience, though limited so far.  

    Equally ridculous are those who insist Manziel should be cut.  We should be sensitive to the fact that he is fighting a life threatening situation with drug addiction, and he simply can not play if he reverts back to active using.  There was a warning signal when he was apparently acting erratically last month.  However, nothing good would happen if Manziel is cut.  His bonus money would be taken out of the salary cap immediately. Why would the Browns want to do that  unless they are forced?  Meantime he is good enough to at least be a backup quarterback, as evidenced by his winning start against Tennessee in September.  

      Looking at the numbers, he is clearly improving after a disastrous 2014 rookie season.  He already has a win which is no small achievement for a backup quarterback.  How can anyone conclude that he is near his peak after two starts in 2015?  No, it is much more logical to believe that he will continue to improve in the next two or three years.  If he has a poor 2015, it doesn't mean he won't be better next year and the year after.

     The Browns are well stocked at quarterback with established starters Josh McCown and Austin Davis.  Neither are likely to be good enough to turn around a bad offense with no running game, but they would be okay if there were more help on offense.  Draft another wide receiver and a running back and let's see how it goes.  

      Cris Carter tells the parable of the muffins, and it goes something like this:  "Muffins come out of the oven when they are ready.  Sometimes it's ten minutes, sometimes fifteen.  If the muffin isn't ready after ten minutes, it doesn't mean it is a bad muffin.  Wait till its ready, then judge."  


Sunday, April 5, 2015

What Should the Browns Do With Johnny Manziel?


   This is actually not so complicated. The Browns should keep Johnny Manziel on the roster as long as he is good enough to be at least the third string quarterback.  You don't cut him unless there really are three guys that are clearly better.  I doubt whether that will be the case in 2015.

    Many enraged Browns fans, some with questionable sanity, want to cut Manziel immediately, feeling that he has betrayed them by not being an immediate superstar and for having a problem with substance abuse.   

      Let's deal with that right away:   If the Browns cut Johnny Manziel, they will be penalized because of the rules about guaranteed contracts.  The Browns would not save money by cutting Manziel. Their salary cap would be reduced in 2015 and they might have to cut payroll to make their cap limit. That would be stupid.   

       Sportrac lists that Manziel's 2015 "dead money" at  $6.5 M.  This is the amount of guaranteed money over the life of his contract, that has to be accounted for immediately when he is cut or traded.  That money has to come out of the Browns 2015 payroll.  Conversely if they keep him on the roster, they will have $4.6 Million dollars more to work with in 2015.   

     What about the risk of Manziel failing a drug test?   Well, what risk is that?    Nothing really bad happens to the Browns if he fails a test, other than he is not allowed to play.  They do not have to pay him if he is suspended!



What if Manziel has a positive drug test?  In that case the Browns are not penalized.   You can argue about the logic of the rule, but it clearly favors the Browns in this situation. 


If Manziel is as good as Seneca Wallace (a short third string qb who made some contributions to the Browns), he is worth keeping on the roster for another year.  How good do you really have to be to be a third string quarterback?  

       Suppose Manziel is not a superstar, but is good enough to be third on the depth chart for the Browns; say, as good as Seneca Wallace.   Yeah, he would be overpaid, but again that should be noted on Mr. Farmer's report card.  It's not the player's fault if the team gave him too much money.  But to reiterate, nothing bad happens to the Browns if he is second or third on the depth chart.   There is no reason why the Browns have to give him away if he doesn't establish himself as the starter in 2015.  

       Many Browns fans love to hate the second and third string qbs of the Browns.  But I'm calling into account the "Superstar or Bust" mentality of many Browns fans.  Who says every quarterback has to be a superstar?   This is not Fantasy Football where you have three quarterbacks and they are all Pro Bowl candidates.  Every team in the NFL has a backup quarterback who they think is good enough to win a couple games, and about half the teams have a third string quarterback at close to the league minimum.   You cut a guy if he is fourth string and you only have room for three guys. You don't cut a guy just because you're disappointed after two games or because you thought he would make the Hall of Fame his first year.   Right now the Browns have Josh McCown, Thad Lewis and Connor Shaw, and remember Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad if he can clear waivers, and my guess is he can.  

Is two games really enough to conclude that Manziel can not play in the NFL?  No.  We don't know what we've got yet.  

     It might be that the Browns drafted Manziel too early. They definitely expected way to much out of a kid entering the NFL after his sophomore year of college.  So blame that on the Browns brass, probably Jimmy Haslam who wanted him the most.  But that is not Manziel's fault. 


     The fact is that we don't know what he can do.  We know that he is one of the shortest qbs in the NFL (along with Russell Wilson of the Seahawks) and that he has a substance abuse problem.  We also know he failed to pick up the Browns' offense last year.   But he also has a first round caliber arm, and he has better than average speed and very good improvisational skills.    Let's see what he can do. Maybe he be a flop.  Maybe he'll be a star.  More likely he will be somewhere in between.  But we will never know if we don't keep him for another two years.  

    At the same time, we are not giving him the keys to the car automatically.  He is going to have to earn that by first proving that he can practice better than Josh McCown and the other challengers.   

    In previous years the Browns would create a number one quarterback by trading away the other candidates.  I think Farmer is going to bring some additional talent via the draft or trade. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota may be out of reach, but if either slips to about nine or ten, I could see the Browns moving up.   Alternatively Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley are  also candidates.  I would be surprised if we don't select at least one of them in the draft.   

     I think the Browns will ultimately form their depth chart with McCown at the top (for now), with Manziel, and a draftee competing for two additonal spots.  Thad Lewis has a a small chance of dislodging Manziel if Manziel does something completely awful, but my guess is that Manziel will survive that challenge.   Connor Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad one more year, and I think the Browns will be willing to expose him to waivers.   

     From here on out, Manziel will be treated like everyone else with a uniform number.  Hustle like hell if you want to earn a roster spot, my man.  I think it's very likely he will do so.  
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Monday, March 16, 2015

Free Agency: How are the Browns Doing, Really? As of March 16 2015

So how are we doing so far in free agency?  The Browns have spent more than I thought they would.  The one guy that has not been replaced is TE Jordan Cameron.  Looking at the major players:  

We get                                                    We lose
qb Josh McCown                              qb     Brian Hoyer
wr  Brian Hartline                              wr     Miles Austin  
NT  Randy Starks                             OLB  Jabaal Sheard
CB  Tramon Williams                        CB    Buster Skrine
                                                          TE    Jordan Cameron 
                                                          NT    Ahtyba Rubin
Retaining:

WR/KR Marlon Moore
DE  John Hughes
S Tayshaun Gipson (probably)
ILB Craig Robertson (probably)
S  Jonathan Bademosi (Probably)
DE Ismailyi Kitchen (Probably)


Jordan Cameron is the greatest talent but presents the greatest risk. 


To date Hoyer, Sheard, Skrine and Cameron have signed with other teams, and are costing their new teams about $24 Million.   The Browns free agents are costing about $20 Million.  On the whole, I prefer the players we are getting.

Thus, if you agree with this simple minded analysis, GM Ray Farmer may be doing a good job.   On the other hand, the expectation of the fans is to simply load up on a pricey quarterback and wide receivers.  So right now he is getting killed in the internet chat rooms.  Jordan is the big difference maker, but how healthy is he?  It's not a disaster that he left, despite his tremendous ability.


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Browns Salary Cap Demystified

     Browns fans have totally gotten their hopes up by the oft quoted number that they have $41 M of salary cap room, figuring they can add $41 M of free agent salaries in 2015. THAT IS NOT TRUE. It's more like $7 M now, NOT $41 M.


Mr. Tashaun Gipson would like some of the $41 Million in Salary Cap Room that the sportswriters are talking about.  


     Let's review what goes into the "cap space."    First of all there is "carryover" money of $18 M because they underspent the past two years. They have permission to overspend $18 M (temporarily raising the total salaries to $162 Million instead of the NFL limit of $143 M), but they would then have to cut payroll by $18 M in 2016. That would not make sense, and is not going to happen.
  
     Teams that use their carryover are teams like the Dolphins who had an enormous free agent signing with Ndamukong Suh, not to mention former Brown Jordan Cameron.   But they will have to shrink the payroll in future years, so if they don't win this year it will be harder for them to improve.  As it is, they are cutting a number of veterans to try to shrink their payroll.  

    Also they are going to have the NFL Draft again this year, and that costs money,  like 8 million dollars worth, so all NFL teams including the Browns have to set aside money for that.   

   Plus the Browns have issued tenders (that is, formal offers) to  to Restricted Free Agents Gipson, Kitchen, Robertson and Bademosi. Basically that means that they are allowed to match offers that these players receive from other teams. The Browns would also be able to receive draft choices if they don't match the offers, but most of the time Restricted Free agents do indeed re-sign with their old team.   That will cost another $6 or $8 million or so. 

Ok, so ADD THE NUMBERS. Carryover plus draft money plus restricted agents totals $32 to $34 M by my estimate. As of today, the Browns have about $7 M to spend for additional free agent salary in 2015, not $41 M.  They could go a little higher if they dip into their carryover salary cap, as explained above.  But basically there is enough for one or two quality players, but not an army of All-Pro's.

     It also bears mention that the Browns are losing some good athletes including Cameron, Hoyer, Sheard and Skrine.  That's about $18 Million in 2015 cap charges right there.  Likely the Browns signings--notably McCown, Hartline and others to be determined, will be slightly below that level.  

Sunday, March 8, 2015

How many wins is a high priced QB worth?

     Does getting a high priced quarterback correlate to extra wins in the NFL?   Yes, it does, sort of, but perhaps not as much as you might think.   I made a graph of the salary of the highest paid qb on the team in 2014 and compared that to the team win totals.  The results show that the teams with pricey quarterbacks usually do a little better than the teams with bargain basement quarterbacks, but still there are losing teams with very high priced qbs, and winning teams with low priced quarterbacks.  


       The main conclusion is that it depends on the team. You can't just spend money on a quarterback and create a winning team.  As the Chicago Bears about that one.  Or the New York Giants or Atlanta Falcons, both of whom weighed in with only six wins last year.     

   On the other hand some teams with low priced quarterbacks still excel.  Seattle is one such team that succeeded with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  The Eagles won 10 games with Nick Foles as their highest paid qb (and actually backup Mark Sanchez played a lot after Foles was injured). The Browns had a very low priced quarterback in Johnny Manziel (yes he was actually higher priced than Brian Hoyer), but the Browns were quasi-respectable with seven wins last year.   

       This year the Browns have moved up to the 27th highest paid quarterback in the person of Josh McCown, pending the probable addition of at least one other serious contender for starting quarterback position.  Many fans assume that that dooms the team to another season of mediocrity.  Maybe so, but there is more than one way to win a football game.  By not signing a high priced quarterback, there is more salary available, say for two Pro-Bowl calibre players at other positions.  Which is better to have?    A serious case can be made that it may not be worth spending eighteen million dollars for a single player, no matter how good he is.   

    Still the small data set for 2014 is consistent with the view that there is a payoff in having a top quarterback,and that he might be worth an extra win or two compared to a team with a below average quarterback.  

Friday, March 6, 2015

Josh McCown is Not Overpaid!


Is Josh McCown way overpaid at $3.9 M in 2015?   Not really, once you realize that quarterbacks in the NFL make a lot of money.  

    Much of Browns Nation is up in arms over the signing of Josh McCown, a career backup who had a hot stretch of games two years ago at age 33, and now at age 35 he is being rewarded with a contact of about $3.9 million bucks per year.   How horrible!  

   But okay.  Let's step back from this a bit and ask what horrible things the Browns actually have done.   They made Josh McCown the 27th highest paid quarterback in the NFL, ahead of such guys as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst. How crazy is that?  Well Fitzpatrick had a good year last year and probably deserves a pay raise, but the other guys are probably comparable in ability or maybe not as good.  

     How good should the 27th highest paid quarterback be? Well, if you believe in value, you would say he should be the 27th best quarterback, right?   That would place him with Nick Foles (27), Drew Stanton (28) and Geno Smith (29). These guys are all good but not great quarterbacks.  In case you are wondering, McCown and Brian Hoyer were both rated at about the same level, 32nd and 31st, respectively.   Down below, I've posted a list of the quarterback salaries in the NFL as of March 2015, along with their statistical ranking. The ones highlighted in red are still on their rookie contract, which basically amounts to a lower wage scale than the veterans.  

    If Browns fans think that we should have gotten someone like Jay Cutler, who might be available in a trade, okay, but understand he makes $16.5 Million, not the $3.9 Million bucks that McCown will make. 

    So basically, the crying is based the Browns making a guy who is he 32nd best quarterback into 27th highest paid quarterback.  This is a wash, as far as I'm concerned.  The guy is simply not being overpaid.  It's not a lot of money for a quarterback.  All quarterbacks with similar ability get that kind of money or much higher.  

   So perhaps the issue is not whether McCown was over-valued, but whether the Browns should have gotten someone else.  I believe that this will be the case and that they will be active in free agency and will go into the draft with the intention of either moving up for Marcus Mariota, or drafting someone like Brett Hundley, Garret Grayson or Bryce Petty, and developing them.  There is no urgency in starting the rookie from Day One with McCown in place, much like the duo of Hoyer and Manziel in 2014.   The Browns still have Manziel (and frankly are stuck with him).  Manziel's poor performances at the end of the season as well as pre-season inspire little confidence that he can actually play, but since they have guaranteed money tied up in him for three more years they are just going to have to play their entire hand. Remember that under the old system Manziel would be having his senior year at Texas A&M in 2015.  It may take until after the 2016 season before the Browns will be sure whether they have a player or. 

    As for Connor Shaw, he proved himself to be a competent field general and has good speed and toughness.  He is definitely undersized and has a weak arm (the only combine quarterback to not break 50 mph with his passes in 2014).  It might be possible to continue to keep him on the training squad for one more year, though there is some risk of him being claimed by another team.  Alternatively, there may be some other free agent quarterback who will challenge Shaw for the training squad slot.

    Many fans seem ready to hate McCown for being a "game manager" and "career backup,"  but I believe that the Browns will be well served if they complement him with another young quarterback with solid credentials.  He's not getting a lot of money, not for a quarterback.   

   So this year, I anticipate the Browns starting the season with McCown, with a high draft choice qb as the second string and Manziel as third string. Shaw will likely be on the training squad as the effective fourth string quarterback.  
Player Team Cap Value     Ttl QBR
1   Tony Romo Cowboys $27,773,000     1
2   Drew Brees Saints $26,400,000     6
3   Eli Manning Giants $19,750,000   15
4   Matt Ryan Falcons $19,500,000   11
5   Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $18,395,000     3
6   Aaron Rodgers Packers $18,250,000     2
7   Matt Stafford Lions $17,721,250   21
8   Peyton Manning Broncos $17,500,000     4
9   Philip Rivers Chargers $17,416,668   12
10   Sam Bradford Rams $16,580,000   --
11   Jay Cutler Bears $16,500,000   21
12   Alex Smith Chiefs $15,600,000   23
13   Colin Kaepernick 49ers $15,265,753   17
14   Cam Newton Panthers $14,666,000   16
15   Joe Flacco Ravens $14,550,000   16
16   Carson Palmer Cardinals $14,500,000     8
17   Tom Brady Patriots $14,000,000     5
18   Andy Dalton Bengals $9,600,000     25
19   Kyle Orton Bills $7,500,000     19
20   Andrew Luck Colts $7,034,363     11
21   Robert Griffin III Redskins $6,719,713     19*
22   Matt Schaub Raiders $5,500,000     --
23   Chase Daniel Chiefs $4,800,000     --   
24   Matt Cassel Vikings $4,750,000     --
25   Blake Bortles Jaguars $4,694,273     33
26   Ryan Tannehill Dolphins $4,030,887     14
27   Josh McCown Browns $3,916,666     32
28   Ryan Fitzpatrick Texans $3,875,000       9
29   Drew Stanton Cardinals $3,866,668     --
30   Chad Henne Jaguars $3,500,000     --
31   Matt Hasselbeck Colts $3,000,000     --
32   Charlie Whitehurst Titans $2,750,000     --
33   EJ Manuel Bills $2,423,264     --
34   Johnny Manziel Browns $1,874,681     --
35   Bruce Gradkowski Steelers $1,833,334     --
36   Kellen Clemens Chargers $1,822,500     --
37   Russell Wilson Seahawks $1,696,868    10
38   Nick Foles Eagles $1,677,880    27
39   Teddy Bridgewater Vikings $1,556,705    22






*Robert Griffin III didn't have enough games to be ranked, but his Quarterback Rating would have been about the same as Kyle Orton's.  Bryan Hoyer was ranked #31.  

Monday, March 2, 2015

Ex-Browns QBs Still in the NFL

The Browns are trying to spread their ex-quarterbacks throughout the NFL, thereby weakening the rest of the league.  They are doing a great job of it.  By my count, there were eight ex Browns still slinging the pigskin in the NFL last year.  This does not include Brady Quinn who is contemplating un-retiring, nor ex-Wildcat qbs Joshua Cribbs and Marqueis Gray.  The Browns history shows that they have an intense hatred for the backup quarterback, and can not wait to get rid of him.  Last year's backups, Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw,  didn't seem to be better than, say, Derek Anderson or Colt McCoy.  Maybe that will change in 2015.

The Browns are unusual because most years they start three quarterbacks during the season.  Partly this is due to their lack of interest in pass protection, and perhaps a subliminal desire to see their nominal starter get killed.   Last year they started Hoyer, Manziel and Shaw, and the year before they used Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden.  Prior to that they used Weeden, McCoy and Thad Lewis.   They seem to greatly fear a "quarterback controversy" and so their way of handling the problem is to get rid of the backup quarterback.  


Colt McCoy was definitely the star of the group, having a short run with the lousy Washington team.  I refuse to use their nickname because it is insulting to Native Americans, while the team is insulting to football fans.  But McCoy got four starts and passed for over 1000 yards, enraging Dan Snyder who is a big fan of RG3.   


Colt McCoy played well for a weak Washington team in 2014.

Quickly now, which NFL quarterback was undefeated as a starter in 2014?  If you answered Derek Anderson with a 2-0 record for Carolina, you would be right.   DA was a Pro Bowler for the Browns, but was run out of town after a bad season. Believe it or not, Derek threw for over 700 yards last year and had a rating of 105.2.  


Ex Browns Pro Bowler Derek Anderson had a good year for Carolina in 2014. 

Jason Campbell got into parts of four games for Cincinnati last year but did not see extensive playing time.  My thinking is that if Andy Dalton ever goes down, they will not lose much by turning to the verteran Campbell.  He's never had much to work with but is probably a very good quarterback.  

Brandon Weeden backed up Tony Romo in Dallas last year and played fairly well.  He had one game in which he came in for Romo and had a good game, but he lost a start against Arizona.   

Thad Lewis was on the roster for Houston last year after several injuries to quarterbacks.  He played well for the Browns against Pittsburgh in 2012, and also played a few games for Buffalo in 2013, where many observers thought he was better than E. J. Manuel.  

Josh Johnson is the backup for San Francisco and Colin Kaepernick.  

Bruce Gradkowski is the backup for Ben Roethlisberger and saw some playoff action in 2014.  

Luke McCown, brother of Browns current first string qb Josh McCown, is a backup qb for the New Orleans Saints.

That's it for true quarterbacks.  But in addition to these eight there are two others who were Wildcat quarterbacks for the Browns in certain situations.  Josh Cribbs was a Wildcat quarterback at times for the Browns, but did not play qb for the Colts, who have a guy named Luck at that role.  Similarly, Marqueis Gray was the Wildcat qb in 2013, but last year played for Minnesota and Buffalo, finding time to have a big game against the Browns as a tight end.