How Good Are Rookie Quarterbacks?

Fans loved Dan Snyder for making the bold move and trading four draft picks for star quarterback Robert Griffin III, who will be challenging Colt McCoy for a starting job this year. 

Football fans all hope for a "Magic Quarterback" in the NFL draft who will make an enormous impact as a rookie.   Even GM's and owners get caught up.  For example, in 2012 the Redskins famously gave up three first round picks and a second round pick in order to nab Robert Griffin III. 

So how realistic is it to expect a rookie to perform at a high level?  To answer this question, I took a look at the rookie quarterbacks of the last 10 years, and evaluated their quarterback rankings among league qualifiers.  Note that many rookies (probably about half of the first round draft choices) didn't even qualify their first year.  For example, the Raiders blew a first round pick on Jamarcus Russell, who was so bad that he didn't get enough appearances to qualify on the leader board in 2007.  Similarly the Packers took Aaron Rodgers in 2005, but he had a guy named Favre ahead of him and had to sit.    

The results are rather depressing for the "Magic Quarterback" theory.  On the average, rookie quarterbacks were ranked about 22nd in the league, using the standard quarterback rating system as published on ESPN.  The high water mark was 2012, when Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson had outstanding years.  Three teams--the Redskins, Seahawks and Colts--had good years with their rookie quarterback.   However, since 2005, Griffin and Wilson were the only two rookies  to finish in the Top 10. Getting a top 10 performer happens only once every five years or so.  And there are a lot of 1st round draft picks that never make it at all. Not a pleasant prospect.

Last year, the best quarterback was Teddy Bridgewater, who ranked 22nd in the league.  Blake Bortles was the first quarterback taken, but ranked 33rd in the league.  

  
So is a rookie quarterback a quick fix for the Browns or any other team?  I don't think so.  Wait a year or two, and then you might have something.  


2014  
Teddy Bridgewater 22
Derek Carr 30
Blake Bortles 33

2013
Mike Glennon 21
Geno Smith   37

2012
Robert Griffin     3
Russell Wilson   4
Andrew Luck    26
Ryan Tannehill 27
Brandon Weeden 29

2011
Cam Newton  15
Chistian Ponder 30
Blaine Gabbert 33

2010
Sam Bradford  25
Jimmy Clausen 31

2009 
Mark Sanchez 28
Matthew Stafford 29
Josh Freeman   30

2008 
Matt Ryan 11
Joe Flacco  22

2007

(no qualifiers)

2006

Matt Leinart 23

Vince Young 30

2005

Kyle Orton 34

Ex-Browns QBs Still in the NFL

The Browns are trying to spread their ex-quarterbacks throughout the NFL, thereby weakening the rest of the league.  They are doing a great job of it.  By my count, there were eight ex Browns still slinging the pigskin in the NFL last year.  This does not include Brady Quinn who is contemplating un-retiring, nor ex-Wildcat qbs Joshua Cribbs and Marqueis Gray.  The Browns history shows that they have an intense hatred for the backup quarterback, and can not wait to get rid of him.  Last year's backups, Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw,  didn't seem to be better than, say, Derek Anderson or Colt McCoy.  Maybe that will change in 2015.

The Browns are unusual because most years they start three quarterbacks during the season.  Partly this is due to their lack of interest in pass protection, and perhaps a subliminal desire to see their nominal starter get killed.   Last year they started Hoyer, Manziel and Shaw, and the year before they used Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden.  Prior to that they used Weeden, McCoy and Thad Lewis.   They seem to greatly fear a "quarterback controversy" and so their way of handling the problem is to get rid of the backup quarterback.  

Colt McCoy was definitely the star of the group, having a short run with the lousy Washington team.  I refuse to use their nickname because it is insulting to Native Americans, while the team is insulting to football fans.  But McCoy got four starts and passed for over 1000 yards, enraging Dan Snyder who is a big fan of RG3.   

Colt McCoy played well for a weak Washington team in 2014.

Quickly now, which NFL quarterback was undefeated as a starter in 2014?  If you answered Derek Anderson with a 2-0 record for Carolina, you would be right.   DA was a Pro Bowler for the Browns, but was run out of town after a bad season. Believe it or not, Derek threw for over 700 yards last year and had a rating of 105.2.  

Ex Browns Pro Bowler Derek Anderson had a good year for Carolina in 2014. 

Jason Campbell got into parts of four games for Cincinnati last year but did not see extensive playing time.  My thinking is that if Andy Dalton ever goes down, they will not lose much by turning to the verteran Campbell.  He's never had much to work with but is probably a very good quarterback.  

Brandon Weeden backed up Tony Romo in Dallas last year and played fairly well.  He had one game in which he came in for Romo and had a good game, but he lost a start against Arizona.   

Thad Lewis was on the roster for Houston last year after several injuries to quarterbacks.  He played well for the Browns against Pittsburgh in 2012, and also played a few games for Buffalo in 2013, where many observers thought he was better than E. J. Manuel.  

Josh Johnson is the backup for San Francisco and Colin Kaepernick.  

Bruce Gradkowski is the backup for Ben Roethlisberger and saw some playoff action in 2014.  

Luke McCown, brother of Browns current first string qb Josh McCown, is a backup qb for the New Orleans Saints.

That's it for true quarterbacks.  But in addition to these eight there are two others who were Wildcat quarterbacks for the Browns in certain situations.  Josh Cribbs was a Wildcat quarterback at times for the Browns, but did not play qb for the Colts, who have a guy named Luck at that role.  Similarly, Marqueis Gray was the Wildcat qb in 2013, but last year played for Minnesota and Buffalo, finding time to have a big game against the Browns as a tight end.    

How Many Draft Picks Do the Browns Burn on Quarterbacks?

The Cleveland Browns love to draft quarterbacks. 

When they resumed operations in 1999, they had the rights to the top pick overall.  However the New Orleans Saints were interested in Rickey Williams ultimately gave up their 1999 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7th picks, plus their 2000 number 1 and number 3.   Wowzers, what a haul.  No sane team, especially an expansion team, could turn down an 8-for-1 trade like this.  But we turned that down because Coach Chris Palmer was convinced that Tim Couch would be a Hall of Famer with Palmer's quarterback "guru" ability. 

Coach Chris Palmer figured 50 sacks per year was just the thing to inspire Tim Couch to be a great quarterback.  

In 2000 they took a flyer on Spergon Wynn Round 6.  

Spergon Wynn had zero success in the NFL.

From there, they used free agents to replace Couch, and were able to resist drafting another qb till 2004 when they took Luke McCown.  Then in 2005 they used a number 3 on Charlie Frye.  

Charlie Frye went 6-13 as a starter for the Browns.  That makes him one of the winningest qbs for the new Browns, behind Couch and Derek Anderson, and tied with Colt McCoy.  

So who scouted Brady Quinn?  He was a good competitor, but probably did not have the arm talent that the scouts thought.  

They traded a number 1 and a number 2 for Brady Quinn in 2007.  In 2010 they took Colt McCoy in the third round. In 2011, they traded a 7th round pick for Seneca Wallace.  In 2012 they took Brandon Weeden in the first round, and in 2014 they traded a number one and a number 3 for Johnny Manziel.  

 Was Johnny Football worth a Number 1 and a Number 3?

Ok, so it's been 16 years since the new Browns started drafting.   Over that period of time, here's the draft picks either used directly or traded for a quarterback, or turned down in the Tim Couch non-deal:  

First round:  5 picks
Second Round:  1 pick
Third Round: 5 picks
Fourth Round:  1 pick
Fifth Round:  1 pick
Sixth Round:  2  picks
Seventh Round:  2 picks

Total:  17 picks in 16 years.  

Whoa! 17 picks in 16 years??  That has to be some kind of record. Nine qbs actually wore the Browns uniform as a result of this madness.  Mostly they have not been very successful.   In my opinion, the best was probably Tim Couch who was a deserving NFL starter, and got the Browns into the playoffs in 2002.  Injuries, probably caused by a record number of sacks given up by the blocking-adverse offensive line, eventually took their toll, and Couch was not able to throw after that year.   

Has all this carnage caused the Browns to lose their appetite for quarterbacks?  Maybe not.  Word is that they are willing to bundle 2 or 3 first round picks for either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.  Stay tuned for future news....

Browns Beat Up Lions, 24-6, But Get Beaten Up Too

  Yeah, I'm an old guy, but I love it when the Browns and Lions play even if it is an exhibition game.  In the 1950s and 1960s the Browns and Lions were great rivals, so it was good to play some old friends.

   The good news is that the Browns completely dominated the Lions when the first strings were both there.   Much criticism has been thrown at Browns qb Brandon Weeden, but the fact of the matter is that he played well last year and looks a little better this year.  His receivers are significantly better.   I think they are going to get some yards through the air this year. On this day, he had an unbelievable throw to Josh Gordon, and was on the money to tight end Jordan Cameron twice for touchdowns.   Frankly the Browns looked great through the air and although they don't have All-Pros in the passing game, they don't have a real weakness there either.  For that matter, backup Jason Campbell has done nothing wrong this year either.

    On the ground, Trent Richardson was just fine, but the Browns looked a little lost in short yardage.  They got one decent block from Chris Ogbonnaya at fullback, but otherwise fullback was silent today (one thing I hate about tv coverage of football is they don't give you the opportunity to see what formation the offense is in.  I don't know how many plays used a fullback.  But I do know they didn't do well in short yardage.

Trent Richardson looked unstoppable, but Coach Chud wisely took him out early.  

Halfback Dion Lewis did well catching balls out of the backfield, and made a few yards on the ground, but was injured in the second half, breaking his leg.  He'll be out indefinitely, which is too bad because it looked like he was headed to number two on the depth chart behind Richardson.

Dion Lewis was also explosive, but injured his ankle.  

On defense, the front seven generally bullied the Lions.  Matthew Stafford & Co. were under pressure and had balls batted down and a few were nearly intercepted by the Browns big line and linebackers. The secondary was good but great, and note that the Lions were not playing their big threat in Calvin Johnson.    

The Browns gang tackled and dominated the line of scrimmage.  

The main issue is that a lot of guys got banged up today.  In addition to Lewis' injury, they had injuries to TE Gary Barnidge, LB Barkevious Mingo (bruised lung), and G Shawn Lauvao.  Hopefully they will be back soon as all of these player were doing well.  

Browns Win First Preseason Game vs Rams, 27-19

Cleveland played better than the Rams overall, with Brandon Weeden leading a diversified passing attack.  Photo: www.Clevelandbrowns.com .  

Well, let's not go crazy over an exhibition game, in which the Browns beat an inconsistent Saint Louis Rams team, 27-19.  But a win is better than a loss! And the Browns regulars outplayed the Rams regulars overall, which is also a good sign.

Here are a few takeaways from the game.

1.  The Browns quarterback situation is very solid if not spectacular.  Brandon Weeden played well on a bad team last year, and he will probably play better for a better team this year.  All three Browns qbs played well, and I think both Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer can win games as an NFL starter if Weeden should go down.

Jason Campbell was 6 for 7, with one dropped ball by Chris Ogbonnaya.  Not too shabby.  Photo: www.Clevelandbrowns.com .

2.  The Browns receiving corps is much deeper than last year.  Travis Benjamin, Greg Little and Jordan Norwood made some good plays, and they got some good mileage from tight ends Jordan Cameron and Gary Barnidge as well.  Benjamin also took a punt return to the house, blowing away the Rams coverage team.  

3.  The Browns have some depth at running back, which is a good thing since Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty were both banged up.  Brandon Jackson and Dion Lewis were both great catching passes out of the backfield, and ran hard against a good Rams defense.  It makes me wonder why former Coach Shurmur would never play Jackson, who gained 700 yards for the Packers in 2010.  I'll bet Coach Chud and Norv Turner figure out ways to get him in the lineup. However, the Browns did not play a fullback much.  Chris Ogbonnaya lined up there sometimes, while incumbent Owen Marecic did not see much action and might be on his way out.  But without a big fullback, the Browns are not going to run the ball all that well.  Shurmur and former GM Tom Heckert thought Trent Richardson would be the next Adrian Peterson, but not without a blocking fullback, dudes.  I think the Browns are going to pass a lot more than they run in 2013, with Richardson, Jackson and Lewis catching a lot of passes out of the backfield.  Montario Hardesty, another back much loved by Heckert, ran well at times the past two years but struggled with blocking and pass catching.  With multiple knee surgeries, he may not even make the team, and it would not shock me if the Browns come up with a free agent fullback by the end of training camp.  



Dion Lewis ran well and caught the ball out of the backfield.  Photo:   www.ClevelandBrowns.com

4.  Barkevious Mingo and Billy Winn stood out among defensive linemen, though in general the Browns had trouble putting consistent pressure on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, who had time to unload some major bombs against the Browns.  As Browns announcer Bernie Kosar noted, the Rams receivers had trouble catching the ball, otherwise they could have really shredded the Browns weak secondary.  Let's see, in order to have all of these fancy blitzes and stuff, don't you need some defensive backs who are good enough to play man-to-man with NFL receivers?  As it was, in his brief time in the game, Bradford completed 5 of 8 passes for 102 yards and a TD for a passer rating of 145.8 (are you kidding me?) and it could have been much worse.    

Barkevious Mingo was outstanding in his first pre-season game.   Photo:   www.ClevelandBrowns.com

Conventional thinking is that the Browns are going to play great defense, and will run the ball a lot with a struggling passing game.  However, the Village Elliot  is not so sure.   Based on early returns, the Browns defense is very thin, and they are going to get burned if they rush five and six guys a lot.  On offense, they may find it easier to pass the ball a lot while the running game may struggle without a quality fullback.   

The 2013 Cleveland Browns Offense

    How good are the Browns on offense?    Browns fans are intensely loyal and don’t want to see any of the current players go.  Historically, the Browns and their fans have regarded their team as loaded with young talent and moving in a positive direction.  Then the season starts and they wind up going 4-12. 
    Last year's draft was a case in point.  The Browns had stockpiled draft picks, and went in with 13 picks (and later added Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft, costing them a number two pick in 2013), including two number ones, two number twos, a number three and three number fours.  Normally teams get about four starters a year from the draft.  The Browns had twice as many picks, but came away with only four starters.

       They came away with some successes.  Mitchell Schwartz played at a high level at right tackle, and Gordon turned out to be the third best rookie wideout in the league.   They wound up with the third best rookie running back.  The Browns traded the number four overall pick plus three more draft picks to take Trent Richardson, who is a pretty good player able to run, block and catch the ball.  The Browns were supposed to have a run-first, West Coast Offense last year, but finished 24th in the run, which is pathetic considering the huge investment that they made in Richardson.  Maybe he'll get better if he overcomes some of the injuries he had in 2012.  

      In Brandon Weeden, the Browns got a quarterback who will be 30 in 2013.  Weeden has a big arm but not that many trustworthy guys to throw the ball to, and below average pass protection.  He was the fifth best rookie quarterback in the draft behind RG3, Luck, Tannehill  and Wilson, and overall he was the 29th best quarterback in the NFL rankings.  He'll probably cut down on his intercerptions in 2013, and if he has some other receivers he should improve. 

     Josh Gordon, who was suspended for failing drug tests in college had a very good year a wide receiver.  If his pot smoking is truly behind him, he may have a good career in the NFL.

     That's it for the starters.  They also wound up with some decent prospects, including Travis Benjamin who is a good kick returner who can also be used as an extra wide receiver.  Coach Rob Chudzinski  and OC Norv Turner may switch him to the slot in 2013.  But overall, the 2012 draft was a disaster, and the Browns just did not add much to a bad team.

       Joe Thomas, Pro Bowler at left tackle and Alex Mack at center are the only other Browns starters on offense who are secure for 2013.  

       The Browns will probably let tight end Ben Watson go.  At age 32, he is still a good pass catcher.  The Browns still have young Jordan Cameron, who doesn't catch many passes and also doesn't block well. The Browns liked him because he's tall and looks good on paper.

       Behind Josh Gordon, the Browns have Greg Little, who has led the NFL in dropped passes over the past two years and averaged about 40 yards per game in receiving yards.  Is he a bright young talent?  I don't think so. Slot receiver options include Jordon Norwood, who was on the IR last year, and Josh Cooper, picked up as an undrafted free agent after playing with Weeden at Oklahoma State.  Maybe Travis Benjamin might wind up in the slot.  The Browns have wanted to use their speed guys on the outside, but the shorter quicker receivers are probably best suited for the slot.  It's not certain whether the Browns will keep Cribbs, however.  Shurmur seemed content to let him return kicks and evidently didn't like him as a wide receiver.  Keep in mind, however, that the Browns were supposed to have a West Coast Offense which does not feature a slot receiver, and instead has a fullback.

      At guard, neither Jason Pinkston on the left side nor Shawn Lauvao on the right have been very impressive as the Browns gave up a higher than average number of sacks, mostly from the two guards, and they didn’t help the running game much either.  

      Both Chudzinski as well as offensive coordinator Norv Turner have used a true fullback in their offenses in Carolina and San Diego, respectively.  But current incumbent  Owen Marecic didn't block well and hasn't caught as many passes as they had hoped for.  Brad Smelley didn't do much better but did catch a pass for 3 yards last year.  Maybe that's considered promising for the Browns.

       Historically, the Browns have regarded themselves as being loaded with talent and moving in the right direction.  The Village Elliot thinks that on offense they have only four guys that are entrenched at their psoitions (Thomas, Schwartz, Mack and Gordon), or five if you count Weeden.  Hence they are looking for help at tight end, fullback, wide receiver 2, slot receiver, left guard and right guard.  

     Is this a young team on the rise?  Not based on what they did in 2012, with their pathetic drafting.  In 2013, remember that the Browns will have only six picks, since they already gave up their number two pick for Josh Gordon.    However, the Browns have a lot of money under the salary cap, and my guess is that Mr. Haslam will spend some serious bucks to improve the team. They really could add half a dozen quality players via free agency. 

  

     One of the characteristics of a bad team, however, is that they often fixate on upgrading the quarterback position.  It wouldn't shock me if the Browns acquire another quarterback and neglect some of their other needs.