Free Agency: How are the Browns Doing, Really? As of March 16 2015

So how are we doing so far in free agency?  The Browns have spent more than I thought they would.  The one guy that has not been replaced is TE Jordan Cameron.  Looking at the major players:  

We get                                                    We lose
qb Josh McCown                              qb     Brian Hoyer
wr  Brian Hartline                              wr     Miles Austin  
NT  Randy Starks                             OLB  Jabaal Sheard
CB  Tramon Williams                        CB    Buster Skrine
                                                          TE    Jordan Cameron 
                                                          NT    Ahtyba Rubin
Retaining:

WR/KR Marlon Moore
DE  John Hughes
S Tayshaun Gipson (probably)
ILB Craig Robertson (probably)
S  Jonathan Bademosi (Probably)
DE Ismailyi Kitchen (Probably)

Jordan Cameron is the greatest talent but presents the greatest risk. 

To date Hoyer, Sheard, Skrine and Cameron have signed with other teams, and are costing their new teams about $24 Million.   The Browns free agents are costing about $20 Million.  On the whole, I prefer the players we are getting.

Thus, if you agree with this simple minded analysis, GM Ray Farmer may be doing a good job.   On the other hand, the expectation of the fans is to simply load up on a pricey quarterback and wide receivers.  So right now he is getting killed in the internet chat rooms.  Jordan is the big difference maker, but how healthy is he?  It's not a disaster that he left, despite his tremendous ability.

Browns Salary Cap Demystified

     Browns fans have totally gotten their hopes up by the oft quoted number that they have $41 M of salary cap room, figuring they can add $41 M of free agent salaries in 2015. THAT IS NOT TRUE. It's more like $7 M now, NOT $41 M.

Mr. Tashaun Gipson would like some of the $41 Million in Salary Cap Room that the sportswriters are talking about.  

     Let's review what goes into the "cap space."    First of all there is "carryover" money of $18 M because they underspent the past two years. They have permission to overspend $18 M (temporarily raising the total salaries to $162 Million instead of the NFL limit of $143 M), but they would then have to cut payroll by $18 M in 2016. That would not make sense, and is not going to happen.

  

     Teams that use their carryover are teams like the Dolphins who had an enormous free agent signing with Ndamukong Suh, not to mention former Brown Jordan Cameron.   But they will have to shrink the payroll in future years, so if they don't win this year it will be harder for them to improve.  As it is, they are cutting a number of veterans to try to shrink their payroll.  

    Also they are going to have the NFL Draft again this year, and that costs money,  like 8 million dollars worth, so all NFL teams including the Browns have to set aside money for that.   

   Plus the Browns have issued tenders (that is, formal offers) to  to Restricted Free Agents Gipson, Kitchen, Robertson and Bademosi. Basically that means that they are allowed to match offers that these players receive from other teams. The Browns would also be able to receive draft choices if they don't match the offers, but most of the time Restricted Free agents do indeed re-sign with their old team.   That will cost another $6 or $8 million or so. 

Ok, so ADD THE NUMBERS. Carryover plus draft money plus restricted agents totals $32 to $34 M by my estimate. As of today, the Browns have about $7 M to spend for additional free agent salary in 2015, not $41 M.  They could go a little higher if they dip into their carryover salary cap, as explained above.  But basically there is enough for one or two quality players, but not an army of All-Pro's.

     It also bears mention that the Browns are losing some good athletes including Cameron, Hoyer, Sheard and Skrine.  That's about $18 Million in 2015 cap charges right there.  Likely the Browns signings--notably McCown, Hartline and others to be determined, will be slightly below that level.  

Browns Win First Preseason Game vs Rams, 27-19

Cleveland played better than the Rams overall, with Brandon Weeden leading a diversified passing attack.  Photo: www.Clevelandbrowns.com .  

Well, let's not go crazy over an exhibition game, in which the Browns beat an inconsistent Saint Louis Rams team, 27-19.  But a win is better than a loss! And the Browns regulars outplayed the Rams regulars overall, which is also a good sign.

Here are a few takeaways from the game.

1.  The Browns quarterback situation is very solid if not spectacular.  Brandon Weeden played well on a bad team last year, and he will probably play better for a better team this year.  All three Browns qbs played well, and I think both Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer can win games as an NFL starter if Weeden should go down.

Jason Campbell was 6 for 7, with one dropped ball by Chris Ogbonnaya.  Not too shabby.  Photo: www.Clevelandbrowns.com .

2.  The Browns receiving corps is much deeper than last year.  Travis Benjamin, Greg Little and Jordan Norwood made some good plays, and they got some good mileage from tight ends Jordan Cameron and Gary Barnidge as well.  Benjamin also took a punt return to the house, blowing away the Rams coverage team.  

3.  The Browns have some depth at running back, which is a good thing since Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty were both banged up.  Brandon Jackson and Dion Lewis were both great catching passes out of the backfield, and ran hard against a good Rams defense.  It makes me wonder why former Coach Shurmur would never play Jackson, who gained 700 yards for the Packers in 2010.  I'll bet Coach Chud and Norv Turner figure out ways to get him in the lineup. However, the Browns did not play a fullback much.  Chris Ogbonnaya lined up there sometimes, while incumbent Owen Marecic did not see much action and might be on his way out.  But without a big fullback, the Browns are not going to run the ball all that well.  Shurmur and former GM Tom Heckert thought Trent Richardson would be the next Adrian Peterson, but not without a blocking fullback, dudes.  I think the Browns are going to pass a lot more than they run in 2013, with Richardson, Jackson and Lewis catching a lot of passes out of the backfield.  Montario Hardesty, another back much loved by Heckert, ran well at times the past two years but struggled with blocking and pass catching.  With multiple knee surgeries, he may not even make the team, and it would not shock me if the Browns come up with a free agent fullback by the end of training camp.  



Dion Lewis ran well and caught the ball out of the backfield.  Photo:   www.ClevelandBrowns.com

4.  Barkevious Mingo and Billy Winn stood out among defensive linemen, though in general the Browns had trouble putting consistent pressure on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, who had time to unload some major bombs against the Browns.  As Browns announcer Bernie Kosar noted, the Rams receivers had trouble catching the ball, otherwise they could have really shredded the Browns weak secondary.  Let's see, in order to have all of these fancy blitzes and stuff, don't you need some defensive backs who are good enough to play man-to-man with NFL receivers?  As it was, in his brief time in the game, Bradford completed 5 of 8 passes for 102 yards and a TD for a passer rating of 145.8 (are you kidding me?) and it could have been much worse.    

Barkevious Mingo was outstanding in his first pre-season game.   Photo:   www.ClevelandBrowns.com

Conventional thinking is that the Browns are going to play great defense, and will run the ball a lot with a struggling passing game.  However, the Village Elliot  is not so sure.   Based on early returns, the Browns defense is very thin, and they are going to get burned if they rush five and six guys a lot.  On offense, they may find it easier to pass the ball a lot while the running game may struggle without a quality fullback.   

Dude, where's my fullback?

All-Pro Fullback Vonta Leach has re-signed with the Baltimore Ravens, as the Cleveland Browns decided to stand pat with their "stud," Owen Marecic.  Is Marecic really so good that the Browns can afford to turn up their nose at all All-Pro at this position?

   In football, it really matters how good your 11th best man is.  The fans tend to look at their stars and blame them when things go bad, but football really is a team game, and if you have a weakness, the other team will exploit it.  This year, great attention was focused on Cleveland Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden.  They did added receiving talent, with the likes of Davone Bess and slot receiver David Nelson.  Plus they have promising second year player Travis Benjamin and  former starter Jordan Norwood is returning from an injured ACL.   These fellows will complement drug enthusiast Josh Gordon (assuming he gives up his addiction to cough syrup) and drop specialist Greg Little, who averages an astonishing 40 receiving yards per game for his career (which of course is sufficient to cement his reputation in Cleveland as an emerging star).    But all in all they should have competent players to fill three and perhaps even four wide receiver sets.  

At tight end, the Browns figured they were so loaded with talent that they needed to clear salary cap space by getting rid of Ben Watson, who had only 500 receiving yards from tight end, plus backup Alex Smith who also played fullback last year.   Instead, they are banking on the incredible Jordan Cameron to take over the position, but initial training camp reports are not positive, as Browns safeties are pretty much having their way with him.  Well, perhaps that says more about the quality of the Browns' safeties, but I doubt it.  The Browns did trade for a backup tight end in Gary Barnidge, and a good blocking tight end in Kellen Davis.  Davis really struggled to catch the ball in Chicago, though, so in order to make the team he is going to have block for Trent Richardson and the Browns running game.    

     Ok, back to the fullback position.  The guy who is going to help propel Richardson to the 1500 yard mark is....Owen Marecic??  How can the team pass up a chance to sign a PRO BOWLER at fullback (yes I understand the Browns prefer younger players at this point, but do you really want Marecic over a PRO BOWLER just because he is younger?  And especially since they are way, way under the salary cap??).  To be fair, Owen has the reputation of being a hard worker and was very good in college (Stanford), but with the Browns he has struggled with blocking, receiving and running to the point where they were using backup tight end Alex Smith in the fullback position last year.  Now Smith is gone, as well as the aforementioned Watson, and thus Marecic has once again landed on top of the depth chart.  

Owen Marecic needs to work on blocking, running and receiving.  Everything else seems to be going great, though.

     Now, perhaps this is paranoid of me, but do you suppose there is a connection between the Browns recent behavior and the financial problems at Pilot Flying J?  This year the Browns cleared quite a bit of salary cap room by getting rid of Pro Bowlers Josh Cribbs and Phil Dawson, while also axing Ben Watson, Sheldon Brown, Usama Young, Frostee Rucker, Juqua Parker, Kaluka Maiva, Chris Gokong and Mohamad "Gluefingers" Massaquoi.  Granted some of these players deserved to be cut, but the point is that the Browns were way under the salary cap, but they only signed a few high priced replacements (linebacker Paul Kruger and DL Des Bryant), and much of the roster is still depleted.  How can the Browns cut all of those players and not replace them?  They cut nine guys that were first string at some point, and they signed about three that will start in 2013.  
     Once again, as they have done every year since 1999, they have approached the offseason as if they are a team loaded with talent, and the main task is to get rid of players they find fault with, rather than accumulate them. 

     I think that their operating capital is short, and this may partially explain why they stopped rebuilding.  Financial woes have hit Pilot Flying J and its CEO Jimmy ("it's under control") Haslam, who also owns the Browns.  With the company having to pay back millions in fraudulently withheld rebates and no doubt losing market share in the process, suddenly there is a cash squeeze, especially after they just shelled out a billion to buy out rival Flying J, and another billion to buy the Browns.  If they are short of cash, the banks will not lend them money with a federal indictment hanging over them.  I'll bet the Browns are slow to pay their bills, and they are just not in the position to offer a player like Vonta Leach a decent contract.  That's it, Browns fans.  No shopping spree for players this year after all.  Uncle Jimmy still has a lot of assets on paper, but right now he needs cash.  

    No Pro Bowl fullback, no top drawer tight end, no star cornerback and no starting safety this year, even though there is plenty of cap room to have picked up these players and more.  That's just the cruel reality.  

    Looks like we may have to wait until the next ownership group comes to town.  

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 .   .

How Badly do the Browns REALLY Need Receivers?

 For years, the Cleveland Browns have been short on wide receivers. Somehow they have managed to whiff on wide receivers such as Brian Robiskie, Mohamad Massaquoi, despite their allegedly great potential.  Anyone remember Syndric Steptoe, Carlton Mitchell or Paul Hubbard?  I didn't think so. 

In addition, the Browns lost Josh Cribbs to free agency.  Cribbs' best year as a receiver was 2011 when he caught 41 balls for 518 yards.  On the Browns never like to play Cribbs as a receiver, perhaps because they wanted to keep him fresh for special teams duty, where he was All-Pro.  When they did use him, they tended to send him on sideline patterns, even though his physical attributes are better suited for the slot.  In addition, Ben Watson accounted for 500 receiving yards last year, and he was let go. For that reason, many of us expected that the Browns would heavily pursue a big name wide receiver, but this did not happen.  Was this a ghastly mistake?  Perhaps not.  If you really look at the Browns roster, and forgetting about "jinxes" and evil magic, they may not be as thin as you might have thought. 


This year, they really do have at least one guy with great potential in Josh Gordon, who came on at the end of the year and hauled in 50 passes for 805 yards.  If he can continue to deal with his off the field issues (namely, an affinity for smoking pot) that got him suspended from the NCAA two years ago, the Browns may have a number one wide receiver.  

Josh Gordon blew past a few defensive backs last year.  Photo credit:  Matt Sullivan, Getty Images, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1373801-josh-gordon-updated-fantasy-outlook-analysis-for-browns-wr

On the other side, most depth charts list the inimitable Greg Little as first string.  Little had something like the 68th highest receiving yards in the NFL in 2012.  His yardage total was actually a little lower in 2012 than in 2011, and for his career he is averaging about 40 yards per game.  He improved a little as the season went on, but was among league leaders in dropped passes in 2011 and didn't do much better in 2012.  He also specializes in unsportsmanlike conduct penalties for excessive celebrations, which is hard to believe considering how little cause he has to celebrate.  
     In the NFL, it is rare for a player to become a consistent 1000 yard receiver if he has not established himself by his third year.  Thus, although many fans think Little is an emerging star, the Village Elliot  thinks that time might be running out, and if he does not break through this year, he may be on his way out. 

    The Browns may have two other alternative candidates for the job.  Jordan Norwood was actually among the best Browns receivers early last year, but went out with an ACL tear.  He had been adjusting well to life as a slot receiver.  If he is back physically, he could be a starter and could be a competent short to intermediate range receiver.  

Jordan Norwood had some good games early last year before getting hurt.  

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/08/why_wouldnt_the_cleveland_brow.html



In addition, Travis Benjamin, an undersized kid with blazing speed, started to make a few big catches last year.  He is expected to replace Josh Cribbs as the return specialist but may see extensive action as a receiver also.  The Browns used Benjamin as a split end most of the time, but he can also play the slot, and many of us fans felt he was perhaps best suited for the slot because of his elusiveness and potential for yards after the catch.  Finally, Josh Cooper was signed as a rookie free agent  last year, and will probably back up the slot position.  

   Thus, one could imagine the Browns starting the season with Cooper as one wideout.   Greg Little is probably the consensus favorite to start alongside Cooper, but the Village Elliot thinks that he may have to fight for playing time. A platoon of Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin may be a better answer if Little doesn't appear headed for a breakout year.  Perhaps Cooper, Norwood and Benjamin might appear together  when they play 3 wide receiver sets.    If the Browns add another quality receiver either via free agency or the draft, that would help the depth issue, but it may not be possible to add a 1000 yard guy at this point.  
    Moreover, the Browns may play a fullback and one or even two tight ends frequently in 2013, as they seek to establish a run-first offense featuring Trent Richardson.   If so, it may be more important to get help at the fullback position, not to mention offensive guard, both of which were weaknesses in 2012.  The Browns have a tight end with pass catching skill in Jordan Cameron, and they signed two free agents with a reputation for being good blockers in Kellen Davis, as well and Gary Barnidge.  Thus operating out of a two tight end set is a realistic possibility.  This would not necessarily make the football world forget Gronkowski and Hernandez, but halfback over right tackle might gain a few yards. 
    
    So perhaps the Kiddie Korps receivers are good enough to for the Browns to win with, even if they don't add a stud receiver in the NFL draft.  Or at least there may be other needs that are more pressing than wide receiver.  Currently, the greatest need may be at fullback, where Owen Marecic is the current incumbent, despite lack of enthusiasm about  his blocking.  Also, the Browns will probably try to bring in some competition on the offensive line, particularly for offensive guards Jason Pinkston and Shaun Lauvao.  And the defensive backfield is still trying to recruit a cornerback or two.  

Where are the Browns blockers on this play?  So badly beaten, they are not even in the picture.  It might be that the Browns will seek to fix this first, rather than going after a big name wide receiver.    Photo credit: 

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/scWTRTP3LoV/Cleveland+Browns+v+Detroit+Lions/ypG-nUFCWjq/Brandon+Weeden

    The bottom line is that while the Browns could use some help in the receiving corps, it may be in better shape than one might think.  Travis Benjamin and Justin Norwood lead the candidates to start alongside Josh Cooper.  It may not be Gary Collins and Paul Warfield, but they should be able to line up with guys who at least belong in the NFL, which has not the case in recent years.