Browns Salary Cap Demystified

     Browns fans have totally gotten their hopes up by the oft quoted number that they have $41 M of salary cap room, figuring they can add $41 M of free agent salaries in 2015. THAT IS NOT TRUE. It's more like $7 M now, NOT $41 M.

Mr. Tashaun Gipson would like some of the $41 Million in Salary Cap Room that the sportswriters are talking about.  

     Let's review what goes into the "cap space."    First of all there is "carryover" money of $18 M because they underspent the past two years. They have permission to overspend $18 M (temporarily raising the total salaries to $162 Million instead of the NFL limit of $143 M), but they would then have to cut payroll by $18 M in 2016. That would not make sense, and is not going to happen.

  

     Teams that use their carryover are teams like the Dolphins who had an enormous free agent signing with Ndamukong Suh, not to mention former Brown Jordan Cameron.   But they will have to shrink the payroll in future years, so if they don't win this year it will be harder for them to improve.  As it is, they are cutting a number of veterans to try to shrink their payroll.  

    Also they are going to have the NFL Draft again this year, and that costs money,  like 8 million dollars worth, so all NFL teams including the Browns have to set aside money for that.   

   Plus the Browns have issued tenders (that is, formal offers) to  to Restricted Free Agents Gipson, Kitchen, Robertson and Bademosi. Basically that means that they are allowed to match offers that these players receive from other teams. The Browns would also be able to receive draft choices if they don't match the offers, but most of the time Restricted Free agents do indeed re-sign with their old team.   That will cost another $6 or $8 million or so. 

Ok, so ADD THE NUMBERS. Carryover plus draft money plus restricted agents totals $32 to $34 M by my estimate. As of today, the Browns have about $7 M to spend for additional free agent salary in 2015, not $41 M.  They could go a little higher if they dip into their carryover salary cap, as explained above.  But basically there is enough for one or two quality players, but not an army of All-Pro's.

     It also bears mention that the Browns are losing some good athletes including Cameron, Hoyer, Sheard and Skrine.  That's about $18 Million in 2015 cap charges right there.  Likely the Browns signings--notably McCown, Hartline and others to be determined, will be slightly below that level.  

How many wins is a high priced QB worth?

     Does getting a high priced quarterback correlate to extra wins in the NFL?   Yes, it does, sort of, but perhaps not as much as you might think.   I made a graph of the salary of the highest paid qb on the team in 2014 and compared that to the team win totals.  The results show that the teams with pricey quarterbacks usually do a little better than the teams with bargain basement quarterbacks, but still there are losing teams with very high priced qbs, and winning teams with low priced quarterbacks.  

       The main conclusion is that it depends on the team. You can't just spend money on a quarterback and create a winning team.  As the Chicago Bears about that one.  Or the New York Giants or Atlanta Falcons, both of whom weighed in with only six wins last year.     

   On the other hand some teams with low priced quarterbacks still excel.  Seattle is one such team that succeeded with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  The Eagles won 10 games with Nick Foles as their highest paid qb (and actually backup Mark Sanchez played a lot after Foles was injured). The Browns had a very low priced quarterback in Johnny Manziel (yes he was actually higher priced than Brian Hoyer), but the Browns were quasi-respectable with seven wins last year.   

       This year the Browns have moved up to the 27th highest paid quarterback in the person of Josh McCown, pending the probable addition of at least one other serious contender for starting quarterback position.  Many fans assume that that dooms the team to another season of mediocrity.  Maybe so, but there is more than one way to win a football game.  By not signing a high priced quarterback, there is more salary available, say for two Pro-Bowl calibre players at other positions.  Which is better to have?    A serious case can be made that it may not be worth spending eighteen million dollars for a single player, no matter how good he is.   

    Still the small data set for 2014 is consistent with the view that there is a payoff in having a top quarterback,and that he might be worth an extra win or two compared to a team with a below average quarterback.  

Why Hoyer Had to Leave the Browns

Many Browns fans are upset that Brian Hoyer, the winningest Browns quarterback since 1999, is headed to free agency.  

     Like many fans, I did not want to see Brian Hoyer leave the Cleveland Browns.   Many conspiracy theories have been aired in the press, charging that upper management hates him for whatever reason.  

    While not totally discounting the possibility that there may be bad feelings between Brian and the front office, I think that the situation is actually very simple.  Free agency provides the best chance for Brian Hoyer to continue to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.   

     The Browns offense looked great for the first month of the season, with the opposing defenses daring Hoyer to throw the deep ball by playing eight man fronts, and Hoyer responding and lighting it up.  

      However, as the season went on, other teams learned to use a more conservative approach.  Especially after All-Pro center Alex Mack went out with an injury, Hoyer lost his magic.  

      If you believe Bill Parcel's dictum, "You are what your record says you are,"  then Brian Hoyer is the 31st ranked quarterback in the NFL, with a paltry 12 TD passes and 13 INT's over 13 starts.  He wasn't the only reason, of course, but nevertheless it is very understandable if the Browns are unwilling to contractually commit to him as their first string quarterback.   But it is equally understandable if Brian Hoyer believe in himself and wants to be an NFL starting quarterback.   Hence, Hoyer must turn down offers from the Browns to be a second string quarterback, and enter free agency to see if anyone will offer him a first string job.   

      But even if he does not get an offer for a first string job, the Browns could not afford to wait to see if he might eventually consent to be a backup quarterback for the Browns.  The Browns had to sign a known quantity, especially since Manziel is in rehab and the team is losing confidence in his ability to be an NFL quarterback.  

        As mentioned in my previous blog I anticipate the Browns starting the season with McCown, with a high draft choice qb as the second string and Manziel as third string.  

      I tend to doubt whether Hoyer will get a contract with another team that is worthy of a starting quarterback. The teams looking for a first string quarterback include the Bills, who wanted McCown and eventually settled for Matt Cassel; the Jets (who have Geno Smith), Philadelphia (Nick Foles and Matt Barkley), Titans (Zach Mettenberger), Tampa (Mike Glennon, and the ability to draft Jameis Winston), Houston (even with Ryan Fitzpatrick ranked 9th in the NFL, and Ryan Mallett on the same team), Redskins (who blame RG3 for all their problems, with Kirk Cousins backing up).  I don't think it is likely that Hoyer can walk into any of these situations and be penciled in at the top of the depth chart, especially when there are other free agents available including Mark Sanchez, Mike Vick and Colt McCoy also ready to compete.   But Hoyer has to take that chance, no question.  

     

     So I tend to not buy into the conspiracies about not liking Hoyer.   It's really more simple than that.  With the NFL's free agency system, Hoyer has to try to sign with the team that gives him the best chance of realizing his dream of being a starting quarterback.  Even if that opportunity never materializes, he has to at least try.   I wish him nothing but good luck and great success--except against the Browns.

    

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Josh McCown is Not Overpaid!

Is Josh McCown way overpaid at $3.9 M in 2015?   Not really, once you realize that quarterbacks in the NFL make a lot of money.  

    Much of Browns Nation is up in arms over the signing of Josh McCown, a career backup who had a hot stretch of games two years ago at age 33, and now at age 35 he is being rewarded with a contact of about $3.9 million bucks per year.   How horrible!  

   But okay.  Let's step back from this a bit and ask what horrible things the Browns actually have done.   They made Josh McCown the 27th highest paid quarterback in the NFL, ahead of such guys as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst. How crazy is that?  Well Fitzpatrick had a good year last year and probably deserves a pay raise, but the other guys are probably comparable in ability or maybe not as good.  

     How good should the 27th highest paid quarterback be? Well, if you believe in value, you would say he should be the 27th best quarterback, right?   That would place him with Nick Foles (27), Drew Stanton (28) and Geno Smith (29). These guys are all good but not great quarterbacks.  In case you are wondering, McCown and Brian Hoyer were both rated at about the same level, 32nd and 31st, respectively.   Down below, I've posted a list of the quarterback salaries in the NFL as of March 2015, along with their statistical ranking. The ones highlighted in red are still on their rookie contract, which basically amounts to a lower wage scale than the veterans.  

    If Browns fans think that we should have gotten someone like Jay Cutler, who might be available in a trade, okay, but understand he makes $16.5 Million, not the $3.9 Million bucks that McCown will make. 

    So basically, the crying is based the Browns making a guy who is he 32nd best quarterback into 27th highest paid quarterback.  This is a wash, as far as I'm concerned.  The guy is simply not being overpaid.  It's not a lot of money for a quarterback.  All quarterbacks with similar ability get that kind of money or much higher.  

   So perhaps the issue is not whether McCown was over-valued, but whether the Browns should have gotten someone else.  I believe that this will be the case and that they will be active in free agency and will go into the draft with the intention of either moving up for Marcus Mariota, or drafting someone like Brett Hundley, Garret Grayson or Bryce Petty, and developing them.  There is no urgency in starting the rookie from Day One with McCown in place, much like the duo of Hoyer and Manziel in 2014.   The Browns still have Manziel (and frankly are stuck with him).  Manziel's poor performances at the end of the season as well as pre-season inspire little confidence that he can actually play, but since they have guaranteed money tied up in him for three more years they are just going to have to play their entire hand. Remember that under the old system Manziel would be having his senior year at Texas A&M in 2015.  It may take until after the 2016 season before the Browns will be sure whether they have a player or. 

    As for Connor Shaw, he proved himself to be a competent field general and has good speed and toughness.  He is definitely undersized and has a weak arm (the only combine quarterback to not break 50 mph with his passes in 2014).  It might be possible to continue to keep him on the training squad for one more year, though there is some risk of him being claimed by another team.  Alternatively, there may be some other free agent quarterback who will challenge Shaw for the training squad slot.

    Many fans seem ready to hate McCown for being a "game manager" and "career backup,"  but I believe that the Browns will be well served if they complement him with another young quarterback with solid credentials.  He's not getting a lot of money, not for a quarterback.   

   So this year, I anticipate the Browns starting the season with McCown, with a high draft choice qb as the second string and Manziel as third string. Shaw will likely be on the training squad as the effective fourth string quarterback.  

		Player	Team	Cap Value     Ttl QBR
	1	Tony Romo	Cowboys	$27,773,000     1
	2	Drew Brees	Saints	$26,400,000     6
	3	Eli Manning	Giants	$19,750,000   15
	4	Matt Ryan	Falcons	$19,500,000   11
	5	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$18,395,000     3
	6	Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$18,250,000     2
	7	Matt Stafford	Lions	$17,721,250   21
	8	Peyton Manning	Broncos	$17,500,000     4
	9	Philip Rivers	Chargers	$17,416,668   12
	10	Sam Bradford	Rams	$16,580,000   --
	11	Jay Cutler	Bears	$16,500,000   21
	12	Alex Smith	Chiefs	$15,600,000   23
	13	Colin Kaepernick	49ers	$15,265,753   17
	14	Cam Newton	Panthers	$14,666,000   16
	15	Joe Flacco	Ravens	$14,550,000   16
	16	Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$14,500,000     8
	17	Tom Brady	Patriots	$14,000,000     5
	18	Andy Dalton	Bengals	$9,600,000     25
	19	Kyle Orton	Bills	$7,500,000     19
	20	Andrew Luck	Colts	$7,034,363     11
	21	Robert Griffin III	Redskins	$6,719,713     19*
	22	Matt Schaub	Raiders	$5,500,000     --
	23	Chase Daniel	Chiefs	$4,800,000     --
	24	Matt Cassel	Vikings	$4,750,000     --
	25	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	$4,694,273     33
	26	Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$4,030,887     14
	27	Josh McCown	Browns	$3,916,666     32
	28	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Texans	$3,875,000       9
	29	Drew Stanton	Cardinals	$3,866,668     --
	30	Chad Henne	Jaguars	$3,500,000     --
	31	Matt Hasselbeck	Colts	$3,000,000     --
	32	Charlie Whitehurst	Titans	$2,750,000     --
	33	EJ Manuel	Bills	$2,423,264     --
	34	Johnny Manziel	Browns	$1,874,681     --
	35	Bruce Gradkowski	Steelers	$1,833,334     --
	36	Kellen Clemens	Chargers	$1,822,500     --
	37	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$1,696,868    10
	38	Nick Foles	Eagles	$1,677,880    27
	39	Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	$1,556,705    22

*Robert Griffin III didn't have enough games to be ranked, but his Quarterback Rating would have been about the same as Kyle Orton's.  Bryan Hoyer was ranked #31.  

Browns Get Beat Up by St Louis, 33-14

      The Browns disappointed the home crowd, losing to the Rams 33 to 14.  They were totally outclassed by the up-and-coming Rams on both sides of the ball. The Rams defense pushed the Browns around on the line of scrimmage and did whatever they pleased on offense.  

     Brian Hoyer had a touchdown, an interception and a fumble.   He was not very good, but significantly improved over his antichrist-like performances of the first two exhibition games.  Johnny Manziel likewise was much better in this game than the previous two,  rushing for another score.  

http://scout.imgix.net/137/1371813.jpg?w=600&h=360&mode=crop&scale=both
Brian Hoyer was much better than in the first two games, but still underachieved.  

     The running game was pathetically weak, gaining a grand total of 32 yards for the game. That is awful.   Nobody looked good, and the offensive line forgot how to block.  In particular I was disappointed  by hotshot rookie Terrance West.  Instead of the one-cut style that the Shanahan offense is famous for, West likes to tiptoe up to the line, and then start shifting left and right, almost like he is waiting for someone to tackle him. That style doesn't seem to work.  Can Shanahan get him fixed in time for the September 7 opener?    Likewise Tate was terrible, as the entire team averaged 2.1 yards per carry.  Can we have Willis McGahee back?  He at least rushed for 2.7 yards per carry last year.   The presence of a fullback plus blocking tight end Jim Dray was supposed to help the running game, but it was not evidenced today.   If there is a positive note, it would be the play of rookie Joel Bitonio, who continues to be rock solid at left guard.  Hint:  let's run left this year.  

    The Browns defense was equally terrible, being unable to stop the Rams on third down, and giving up nearly 500 yards of total offense, even though star QB Sam Bradford had to leave with a knee injury early on.  

   Although the Browns were terrible on both sides of the ball, the Rams are one of the top teams in the league, and they may make a lot of teams look terrible.  The Rams did not draft Robert Griffin III in 2012, and instead traded for several draft picks, who are now on the team (hello lineman Greg Robinson, 2nd overall pick this year).  Also, a partial explanation for the Browns' miserable performance was a rash of injuries in the secondary.  The Browns were without cornerbacks Joe Haden, Buster Skrine, Marcus Trufant and Pierre Desir. That's four of their five top cornerbacks.  Leon McFadden, probably the sixth best qb on the team, was torched pretty well by St Louis. I'm not sure if he will make the final team.  If the Browns have fewer than four guys out of the lineup, the secondary may be a LOT better.

   Christian Kirksey had a good game at inside linebacker, and made a fantastic pick.  He does not look like a rookie.  Pass coverage was a problem area for the Browns linebacker corps last year, and Kirksey goes a long way to fixing that problem.  I think he will start and be an impact player.  

    I noted that Ray Agnew started at fullback. The running game did not exactly hum when he was in, but on the other hand MarQueis Gray contributed a costly and unnecessary holding penalty.  Gray has made some big plays so far, but also some bad plays.  But what the Browns really need is a guy who can block for the halfback.  

    In short, this was a terrible game, and the Browns looked uninspired on both sides of the ball.  They still have time to turn it around, but they need to get it together soon.  

What in the World are the Browns Doing??

Nine undrafted rookies on the roster...Trent Richardson gone, third stringer Brian Hoyer quarterbacking the team....is this any way to run a football team?

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By now, I don't think there is any other way to understand it.  The Browns have thrown in the towel on the 2013 season, and are in survival mode, trying to save as much money as possible for the future. 

  They started out with a plan to aggressively rebuild the team through free agency, signing premier free agents in linebacker Paul Kruger and defensive lineman Desmond Bryant.  But last April 15, the FBI raided the headquarters of Jimmy Haslam's main company, Pilot Flying J.  
    
My opinion is that by about late May the Browns' rebuilding project was put on hold for a year.   The Browns quit signing top tier free agents and in fact they started shedding payroll.  They started getting rid of highly paid but viable backups like running back Brandon Jackson and tight end Kellen Davis, replacing them with undrafted rookies.  

By now, the team is an astounding 26 million dollars under the salary cap.  This is the equivalent of two or three Pro Bowlers, or  if you prefer, about six starting-calibre NFL players.  

I think the Browns need to save money in order to cover the cash flow situation within the Haslam empire.   Pilot Flying J is probably going through a down year because of being over-extended (having bought out rival Flying J for a billion dollars only two years ago), not to mention the Browns.  As mentioned other times in The Village Elliot's Cleveland Browns blog, it is a reasonable guess that Pilot Flying J may be losing some customers after this recent fiasco, and moreover must be prepared to pay back something on the order of a hundred million dollars for illegally withheld discounts and fines.   I doubt if the banks are particularly thrilled about lending money to a company whose CEO is under the threat of a federal indictment.  

Getting rid of Trent Richardson made a big impact not only this year but in future years.  In addition, the deal makes the Browns an odds-on favorite to be in a very favorable position for the 2014 draft. The goal of management may be to draft a premier quarterback, which would make the team more attractive to prospective buyers.  The 2012 trade of four draft picks to move up one position to get Richardson now looks completely foolish if he is worth only a number one pick in 2014 (likely to be about the 25th overall if the Colts make the playoffs, versus number 3 overall for TRich).  This follows the tradition of packaging three picks for injured backup running back Montario Hardesty, plus a number one and a number two for Brady Quinn.  The Browns always approach the offseason as if they are loaded with talent and need only one or two key players to win the Super Bowl, but they always wind up with the thinnest roster in the NFL, and are usually in last place in their division.  


http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/507/831/ScreenShot2013-09-19at9.47.59AM_crop_north.jpg?w=650&h=440&q=75

Currently, the Browns lead the NFL in salary cap room and it isn't even close.  They also lead the league with nine undrafted free agent rookies on the roster.  This is a young and untalented roster, and IT IS THE CHEAPEST TEAM IN THE NFL. This is not opinion, it's a fact, as measure by their being 26 million under the salary cap.

Meanwhile, the stalwart Haslam team is trying to get another 100 million dollars from the City of Cleveland in stadium improvements, and if they don't get it they may try to void their stadium lease, which would free them to move to another city.  Los Angeles is likely the first choice, but if the Jacksonville Jaguars (say) get there first, then no doubt the city will put a group of investors together to pry another team away from some other city.  My guess is that Haslam will be willing to listen.  

After all, Jimmy Haslam is  a Knoxville-based Steelers fan, a former minority owner of the Steelers.  He was approved by the NFL as the Browns new owner after he falsely promised that he would move to Cleveland to become a full-time NFL owner.  Thus far, Cleveland fans seem willing to overlook this, believing that Haslam has unswerving loyalty to Cleveland for some unknown reason.  Good luck with that, guys.  

     I predict that the Browns will continue their un-building program, and that Brandon Weeden or Jason Campbell could be offered in exchange for a low round draft pick.  This situation will continue until either Haslam is exonerated from the Pilot Flying J scandal, or else the Browns are sold.  I just hope that they can stay in Cleveland another year or two.   


http://www.knoxnews.com/photos/2011/feb/05/110898/
A former minority owner of the Steelers, Jimmy Haslam never did follow through on his promise to move to Cleveland to take over the Browns full time.  Instead his office is empty in Cleveland, but most Browns fans choose to believe he has their best interests at heart.