What Should the Browns Do With Johnny Manziel?

   This is actually not so complicated. The Browns should keep Johnny Manziel on the roster as long as he is good enough to be at least the third string quarterback.  You don't cut him unless there really are three guys that are clearly better.  I doubt whether that will be the case in 2015.

    Many enraged Browns fans, some with questionable sanity, want to cut Manziel immediately, feeling that he has betrayed them by not being an immediate superstar and for having a problem with substance abuse.   

      Let's deal with that right away:   If the Browns cut Johnny Manziel, they will be penalized because of the rules about guaranteed contracts.  The Browns would not save money by cutting Manziel. Their salary cap would be reduced in 2015 and they might have to cut payroll to make their cap limit. That would be stupid.   

       Sportrac lists that Manziel's 2015 "dead money" at  $6.5 M.  This is the amount of guaranteed money over the life of his contract, that has to be accounted for immediately when he is cut or traded.  That money has to come out of the Browns 2015 payroll.  Conversely if they keep him on the roster, they will have $4.6 Million dollars more to work with in 2015.   

     What about the risk of Manziel failing a drug test?   Well, what risk is that?    Nothing really bad happens to the Browns if he fails a test, other than he is not allowed to play.  They do not have to pay him if he is suspended!

What if Manziel has a positive drug test?  In that case the Browns are not penalized.   You can argue about the logic of the rule, but it clearly favors the Browns in this situation. 

If Manziel is as good as Seneca Wallace (a short third string qb who made some contributions to the Browns), he is worth keeping on the roster for another year.  How good do you really have to be to be a third string quarterback?  

       Suppose Manziel is not a superstar, but is good enough to be third on the depth chart for the Browns; say, as good as Seneca Wallace.   Yeah, he would be overpaid, but again that should be noted on Mr. Farmer's report card.  It's not the player's fault if the team gave him too much money.  But to reiterate, nothing bad happens to the Browns if he is second or third on the depth chart.   There is no reason why the Browns have to give him away if he doesn't establish himself as the starter in 2015.  

       Many Browns fans love to hate the second and third string qbs of the Browns.  But I'm calling into account the "Superstar or Bust" mentality of many Browns fans.  Who says every quarterback has to be a superstar?   This is not Fantasy Football where you have three quarterbacks and they are all Pro Bowl candidates.  Every team in the NFL has a backup quarterback who they think is good enough to win a couple games, and about half the teams have a third string quarterback at close to the league minimum.   You cut a guy if he is fourth string and you only have room for three guys. You don't cut a guy just because you're disappointed after two games or because you thought he would make the Hall of Fame his first year.   Right now the Browns have Josh McCown, Thad Lewis and Connor Shaw, and remember Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad if he can clear waivers, and my guess is he can.  

Is two games really enough to conclude that Manziel can not play in the NFL?  No.  We don't know what we've got yet.  

     It might be that the Browns drafted Manziel too early. They definitely expected way to much out of a kid entering the NFL after his sophomore year of college.  So blame that on the Browns brass, probably Jimmy Haslam who wanted him the most.  But that is not Manziel's fault. 

     The fact is that we don't know what he can do.  We know that he is one of the shortest qbs in the NFL (along with Russell Wilson of the Seahawks) and that he has a substance abuse problem.  We also know he failed to pick up the Browns' offense last year.   But he also has a first round caliber arm, and he has better than average speed and very good improvisational skills.    Let's see what he can do. Maybe he be a flop.  Maybe he'll be a star.  More likely he will be somewhere in between.  But we will never know if we don't keep him for another two years.  

    At the same time, we are not giving him the keys to the car automatically.  He is going to have to earn that by first proving that he can practice better than Josh McCown and the other challengers.   

    In previous years the Browns would create a number one quarterback by trading away the other candidates.  I think Farmer is going to bring some additional talent via the draft or trade. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota may be out of reach, but if either slips to about nine or ten, I could see the Browns moving up.   Alternatively Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion or Brett Hundley are  also candidates.  I would be surprised if we don't select at least one of them in the draft.   

     I think the Browns will ultimately form their depth chart with McCown at the top (for now), with Manziel, and a draftee competing for two additonal spots.  Thad Lewis has a a small chance of dislodging Manziel if Manziel does something completely awful, but my guess is that Manziel will survive that challenge.   Connor Shaw is eligible for the Practice Squad one more year, and I think the Browns will be willing to expose him to waivers.   

     From here on out, Manziel will be treated like everyone else with a uniform number.  Hustle like hell if you want to earn a roster spot, my man.  I think it's very likely he will do so.  

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The Village Elliot's QB Rankings for the 2015 NFL Draft

    Last year, the Village Elliot suggested that Derek Carr and Joey Garoppolo were the best qbs in the draft, and that Johnny Manziel was the fifth best qb in the draft, with Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater in between.

     This year, the Village Elliot again says that there is no superstar Andrew Luck prospect in the draft, but there are some guys who are good enough to start in the NFL.  This year I think there are six guys that will get a decent shot at a starting job eventually.  I predict Winston and Mariota will go 1-2 this year, but I believe both are overrated, and not really "franchise quarterbacks."   I rate Mariota as a mid-first round pick, and Winston somewhat behind Mariota.

    But even if the Browns trade up for either quarterback, I would not expect for him to be very good in 2015, and Josh McCown is a better option to start the season with.   I predict that no rookie qb will break into the top 25 of NFL quarterbacks this year.    

Without further ado, my predictions and analysis follow:

1. Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon, Height: 6-4. Weight: 219. 40 Time:  4.52 sec.

     I have Mariota as the best quarterback in a weak qb draft, mainly based on his reputation as a workaholic student of the game, plus his demonstrated ability to avoid interceptions. Arm strength is not as good as Famous Jameis Winston, but the accuracy is there. I think the business about not being under center in college is overrated.  Historically, first round quarterbacks have always been hard to predict. It's just a big adjustment from college to the NFL regardless of whether the kid has run a pro style offense or not.   If the kid is really a top athlete, he will eventually figure out the footwork associated with a pro style offense.  

     On the other hand,  it is particularly rare for a quarterback to perform well as a rookie, so in general I'm against taking quarterbacks too high. Nevertheless, fans and even pro teams consistently pin their hopes on a rookie quarterback to lead a quick turnaround, but it hardly ever happens.  Even if you look at the 2012 draft in which Luck, RG3 and Russell Wilson all excelled as rookies, they actually did not rank exceptionally high in their first year.  So if I were a GM I would probably consider Mariota as about the tenth best player in the draft, and I don't think he will be a great pro until 2016 or 2017.  But I think he will go number two overall.  

Marcus Mariota got beat up by OSU last year, but he might be the best guy out there.  Not sure that I agree with those who want to trade away three or four first rounders for him. 

2.  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State, Height 6-6 Weight: 229 40 time:  5.14.

   There are glaciers that move faster than Sean Mannion, which is why many observers rank him as sixth or seventh round pick. In the NFL draft, evaluators hate slow quarterbacks.  However, in his junior year he threw for 4600 yards at Oregon State.   The career passing leader in the Pac-12 is not Marcus Mariota, but Sean Mannion.   Plus he has the reputation of being a very good student of the game, very diligent in his preparation.  I think he is the third or even second best quarterback in the draft, slightly ahead of Brett Hundley and Bryce Petty. I might be crazy, but Joel Klatt of Foxsports is saying the same thing.  I think he could possibly start in his rookie year, but would not be very good.  He might rank 30th in the league, say.  I would take him in the second  round, but I think he will go much later than that because of his lack of speed and scrambling ability.  I could also see drafting him ahead of Winston, based on lower risk.  

The Village Elliot will draft the 6 foot 6 kid to play qb if we need someone in the second round.  

3.   Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State, Height: 6-4. Weight: 231.  40 Time: 4.97. 

     Winston is the best passer in the draft, no question.  I don't mind him being slow, but I'm worried about his habit of finding trouble off the field.  It's not that he's a bad guy.  But to me the best quarterbacks are the guys that are totally immersed in football, fanatics about preparation in all phases of their lives, and never make missteps.  You can cite counterexamples, like Favre and Roethlisberger who were able to be great players, but I prefer the guy who lives and breathes football like Brady, Manning or Brees.   So I would want to learn more about his personality and work habits before falling in love with his arm.  Personally, I would send him all the way to the second round because of his off the field adventures,  but I believe he will go first overall because of his upside.  He is the best passer but has the most risk.   If I had to go with a sure thing, I would much rather have Mariota or even Sean Mannion. He will have a terrible first year quarterbacking Tampa Bay, much like Blake Bortles up the road in Jacksonsville.  

Browns fans, we are not trading half the team to get a quarterback who shoplifts crab legs.   We've had enough eccentric behavior from Johnny Football, thank you.   

4.  Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA, Height: 6-3. Weight: 227. 40 Time: 4.63. 

I have Hundley very close to Mannion, though most observers think that he is way better, ranking Hundley in the first round, with Mannion way back in the pack.  Hundley throws well, runs well and basically does everything well but does not have the gawdy stats in college that you would expect from a star performer.  Part of that was due to playing with a weak team with poor blocking from his offensive line. He did better in the combine than on the field, but I'm one that tends to judge the quarterback by his on-field performance more so than combine stats.  If you look at his results, he was definitely not as good as Mannion in college. So, I rank him as a second round pick, but he could go even in round 1, especially because of his excellent speed, which NFL scouts love.  

5.  Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor,  Height: 6-2. Weight: 230. 40 Time: 4.87. 

Bryce Petty is another guy who has been dinged for being a "system quarterback" (i.e., plays most of the time in a spread formation rather than under center), but this is not an overwhelming objection, in my opinion.  Petty can throw the ball, but his best year was actually his junior year when he threw for 32 TDs and only 3 INTs versus a 29/7 ratio this year.   Still, the Big 12 absolutely does not play pass defense and so take it for what it is worth.   Petty is a few ticks slower than  Hundley, and an inch shorter but probably very close in ability.   I think he may be drafted in the late second round, although some observers project him in the fourth round.  

6.  Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State, Height: 6-2. Weight: 215.  40 Time: 4.63. 

NFL scouts say Grayson is a decent prospect  with a strong arm that can make all the throws.  He has good speed and size and threw for 4000 yards with 32 TDs and only 7 INTs.  I would rather not start him in Year 1, but perhaps he could be developed into a good quarterback if there is a team willing to be patient with him (not the Browns!!).  

There are a number of other quarterbacks available in the draft, but in my view at least they are longshots.   These six are the ones that have the best chance of helping their teams as rookies, though it might be better to wait a year or two to let them develop.