Football Reasons Why Deshaun Hasn't Had Success in Cleveland--Yet

Unfortunately, maybe it does make sense.  

The signing of Deshaun Watson is regarded as the worst signing in NFL history because not only did the Browns fork over a record amount of money, but they also gave up six draft picks including 3 number one picks.  A trade of this magnitude would not make sense even for a superstar quarterback, but for a player who achieved a passer rating of 80 over three years, it is terrible.  But why did Watson's performance slide, and can he be brought back to some semblance of his former successful self?

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see his success in Houston happened with a vastly different offensive style than he was trying to succeed with in Cleveland. Specifically, in Houston Coach Bill O'Brien had the wisdom to set him up in a Triple Option offense, where he truly excelled. That is, a typical play starts with a (1) handoff (which would be a fake if it is a pass play) and then rollout. Deshaun could (2) run the ball himself, or (3) throw the ball, either a screen or downfield.  

In 2020, he threw for an incredible 4823 yards, numero uno in the NFL.  If you look at the snap counts in the O'Brien era, you will see that they were usually not deploying extra wide receivers, but often had two tight ends or two running backs in order to make that triple option offense go.  

In 2020, Watson also got sacked 49 times, second in the NFL. Deshaun also ran the ball 90 times, which hurts just as much as a sack. He also took 47 quarterback hits. That is, he got tackled 186 times that year. Despite his yardage totals, perhaps that is a good football reason for wanting out of Houston and wanting a different style of offense. You have to ask how long he would be able to take that kind of pounding.

Hence when he went to Cleveland he wanted to be part of a downfield passing offense, similar to the Buffalo Bills offense, which this writer derisively refers to as Air Deshaun.  But from Watson's point of view, it makes sense.  The guy had had two ACL surgeries and getting hit 186 times a season would be a terrible idea for a five-year investment. Hence the Browns scrapped the Stefanski run-first concept. After trying unsuccessfully to convert Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt to a vertical passing specialist, they hired Ken Dorsey, the former Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator.  By the way Dorsey had been fired by the Bills (too many Josh Allen INTs), so he might not have been the total answer after all.  In any case, Air Deshaun was a flop.  

Even at Clemson, where Watson was unquestionably brilliant, he did have a problem with interceptions, tossing 17 his senior year and 13 as a junior. Those interceptions, coupled with a slow ball velocity measurement at the Combine, spooked this writer, so I did not have Watson rated as a first round draft pick at all. But maybe that skeptism about Watson was partly justified if we were evaluating Watson as a pocket passer.  Again, Watson's NFL success was as the World's Greatest Triple Option QB, not as a pocket passer.  Credit Coach Bill O'Brien for designing an offense that maximized Watson's effectiveness, but we also understand why Watson hated it and why it could not last forever. 

Now, what about the Stefanski offense? He does not utilize the triple option per se, but Flacco is really good at the run pass option (RPO). Like the 2020 Texans' offense, Stefanski loves two and even three tight end formations, but does not expose the quarterback as much as the Texans did.  The classic Stefanski offense runs the ball more often than it throws the ball.  Boring!  Make no mistake, quarterbacks, not just Deshaun, love to sling the ball over the ballyard.  But Stefanski has had great success as an OC and HC with veteran quarterbacks like Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco.  Maybe if Deshaun can commit himself to the boring Stefanski offense and run the ball behind six foot eight Dawand Jones, he might yet prove to be an effective QB again, if called upon.

The Browns would like to put Watson on the PUP list all year, but that may not be possible if he wants to play and the docs give him a clean bill of health. The Browns cannot cut him this year unless they can  find $167 million of cap space to absorb his  remaining contract and they can't.  Hence he may wind up as the third string quarterback and he probably won't play again.  However, never say never.  They used four starting quarterbacks in 2024, and five in 2023.  

Why the Browns are Financially Broke Now till 2028

 

Your Cleveland Browns are forced to underspend the salary cap in 2025, 2026 and 2027 compared to their AFC North rivals because of Deshaun Watson's $167 million of cap charges oer the next three seasons, plus another $92 million in dead money over the same period, and probably much more if they cut or trade overpaid players to liberate cap space. So that's at least $259 million dollars over the next three seasons, and it is going to get worse before it gets better.  

It doesn't mean that the Browns are going to be terrible. The Denver Broncos were able to succeed in 2024 despite carrying $89 million in "dead cap" charges, mainly due to Russell Wilson's contract.  Nevertheless the Sashi Brown plan to spend our way to the Super Bowl is OVER.  

It's true that the Browns have some offsetting savings from past seasons, that money is more than cancelled out by $36 million dollar charge for Deshaun Watson and $68 million for former Browns stars including Amari Cooper, Zadarius Smith, Jed Wills, Dalvin Tomlinson, and several others.  

This season, we can guesstimate the actual amount they will spend on players not named Deshaun Watson by using the top 51 salaries pubished in OvertheCap.com and adding about 15 million dollars to cover the Practice Squad, injury replacements and late free agents. It's a bit of a shell game because teams can push money into the future by restructuring contracts to a certain extent. Nevertheless the total cap spent on players who are actually playing provides us a rough estimate of what the teams are actually investing in this season. That would say our Browns will come in at $216 million for money actually spent on players who actually play this season, while the Ravens will be at $249, the Bengals at $261 and Steelers $266. Thus, the Browns will spend about $30 million to $50 million less on their active players than their Division rivals this season, and it will get worse in 2026 and 2027.  

Those sportswriters who are writing stories about the Browns being able to afford trading first round draft picks and spending money on high priced contracts like Micah Parsons from the Cowboys are living in fantasyland. Quit reading that stuff!  Face it, the Browns ability to afford players who actually play is millions less than their AFC North rivals' this year, and it will probably get worse in 2026 and 2027. They simply need to recharge all the cash and draft picks that were blown on Deshaun, plus all the future-loaded contracts that are now coming due.  

The budget shortfall has been planned since 2022 when they signed Deshaun.  The idea was that they were going to overspend for as long as possible and try to win a Super Bowl and pay for it later. Well, they didn't win, and "later" has arrived.

Still, let's not give up hope.  A number of teams have won Super Bowls with the backup quarterback, including three in a row from 1999 to 2001: 1999 Rams with undrafted Kurt Warner, 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer, and the 2001 Patriots with second year man Tom Brady.  The most recent backup to bring home a Lombardi Trophy was Nick Foles and the 2017 Eagles.  

So, it's not good that the Browns are overspent for the next few years, but it's not impossible to win, either.  But can we at least stop overinvesting in quarterbacks? In addition to the well-publicized over-investiment in Deshaun, the Browns have burned through $22 milllion dollars in the Deshaun era and used five additional draft picks on quarterbacks in the past three years. This is preposterous! In 2026, with two first round picks (probably good ones, since the extra one is tied to Jacksonville), the temptation will be enormous to draft yet another quarterback, this time to replace Shedeur, if he does not win the Super Bowl as a rookie.   

I did not like the process that brought Shedeur to Cleveland, but here he is. He is the quarterback of the future, and no one else.  So stop wasting additional draft picks! 

A

$22,584,000

Za'Darius Smith

$14,233,000

Jedrick Wills

$11,812,057

Dalvin Tomlinson

$7,042,000

the money that they are spending on players not with the team, plus 

S

The Best Thing About Shedeur's Start With the Browns

He seems to be the same dude that he was in his Jackson State days, despite his automatic fame and being a rich kid.  

Shedeur's first game in the preseason was an unqualified success, the most impressive showing for a rookie since, um, Deshone Kizer in 2017.  Let's not go crazy about a few touchdown passes.

But what is the best thing about Shedeur's preseason?  

He has defused a potentially explosive political situation by recognizing what went wrong during the draft.  Namely, the threat of interference from his famous famous father, Coach Prime, who is a helluva football coach, is the reason he slid in the draft, NOT a perceived lack of ability. 

There was a real fear that an impetuous owner--like JH3--might want Coach Prime to be the next head coach of the Cleveland Browns to coach his famous son.  Who else would know how to get the most out of his son? But Shedeur gently defused the potential controversy by asking his famous father to stay away from Browns camp altogether.  Instead, Coach Prime visited the Tampa Bay Buccaneers camp to see his other son, Shilo Sanders as he attempts to make the team.  Accordingly, Coach Prime was in camp on Day One to visit his less famous son.

Truthfully, the entire draft process was screwed up this off-season, with the Browns once again way over-investing in quarterbacks.  They gave up on Dorian Thompson Robinson and bundled him with a fifth round pick for Kenny Pickett with one year left on his deal; used two picks on Shedeur and a third round pick on too-short-and-too-slow Dillon Gabriel in a move that made no sense to anyone.  Many observers believe that Jimmy Haslam wanted Shedeur. Like Jerry Jones, Haslam loves controversy and notoriety.  The whole process was flawed--but that does not mean that Shedeur might not be a very good quarterback.  

The best thing is that Shedeur, to the extent that he is able, is trying to make it on his own and avoid the politics of the coaching situation.  

 

Browns are Praying Some Team Will Give Them a Draft Pick for a Worthless QB

 So, the national media seems befuddled that the Browns are holding a four-way competition for the Browns starting quarterback job. "Gee, they are all so good, we can't decide!" Let me explain Brownspeak to those of you who are uninitiated.

The Browns do stupid things all the time, generally because of owner interference. So they need a cover story. The truth is that they are desperately hoping that some other NFL team out there is as dumb as the fan base and actually believes that there are four starting caliber quarterbacks. In that case, that NFL team might actually trade a future draft pick for one of the undesirable quarterbacks currently on the roster. Thus, the Browns are trying to not tip their hand as to which quarterbacks they prefer. 

How stupid is this?  Well, the hope is that other NFL GMs really are as dumb as us fans. There really is no decision at this point.  Dillon Gabriel is not as good as Shedeur Sanders, and Kenny Pickett is going to be a free agent in 2026. There was very little point in obtaining his services for one season, but they did that and gave up their developmental quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who they kept rushing into battle before he was ready, plus a Round 5 draft pick that could have been better used for, say, a wide receiver or defensive back.  But maybe by hyping up Pickett some team will decide to trade for him (?)  Good luck with this plan, Browns, but it does not seem likely.    

Next year they will be in position to draft a real quarterback in the first round while Deshaun Watson has $167 million left on his deal, payable over two years.  How will they afford a big contract for Pickett at the same time? No, Pickett would be gone, and anyway he is not that good or the Steelers would have kept him.

Hence they are stuck with Pickett. The cannot afford to throw away his services so he makes the team.  

Shedeur Sanders will not be traded because Jimmy Haslam loves him and also is no doubt intrigued by the idea of hiring Coach Prime to replace Kevin Stefanski if and when the Browns turn in another lackluster year this season, and that could very well happen. Should they start him Year One? Sure, if you want to ruin another good quarterback, why not? 

The main problem the Browns have is their roster is depleted due to investing six draft picks in Deshaun Watson as well as the financial investment which they will not finish paying off until 2027.  

Actually, the signing of Tyler Huntley as QB5 is not ridiculous.  If the Browns want to manage 40-year-old Flacco's workload, installing a "Wildcat" or quarterback option would not be crazy. Huntley could run that style of offense, and he could probably be stowed on the practice squad in the early going.  Of course players hate two-QB systems, but today's NFL is potentially a 21 game season, and you might rethink that and try to use your bottom-of-the-roster guys as best as possible.   

The truly inexplicable move is blowing a third round pick on Dillon Gabriel who is too short to throw passes over giant defensive linemen and too slow to roll out.  In college he was timed at 4.94 seconds in the 40 yard dash and he did not run the 40 at the Combine.  It's hard to believe he can be successful in today's NFL.  Drew Brees did it, but he was one in a thousand, and he was an inch taller and a few ticks faster. So Gabriel's chances are not zero, but something like 1000-to-1 against making it as a starter. 

40-year old Joe Flacco, who proved he can take a team to the playoffs is the obvious starter. The Browns fired him in 2024 because they were frightened of a potential quarterback controversy because, obviously, the fan base loved Joe much more than the perpetually ineffective Deshaun Watson.  Firing a quarterback due to fear of a "quarterback controversy" is a classic sign of a weak front office and weak ownership.  

Pretending that the other three are close to landing the first string job is just a show, with the hope that some other quarterback-hungry franchise will crack and offer a draft pick for one of them.  It's very unlikely.   

Which Cleveland Browns Quarterbacks Actually Have Trade Value?

Trade?   Doesn't it take two teams to trade? What team would pull the trigger for one of these qbs at roster cutdown time? 
 

So I keep hearing how the Browns are going to trade their worst quarterback for draft picks and stuff. Which of the four quarterbacks has trade value?

Shedeur slid because nobody wanted to be part of the circus. In particular, Coach Prime explicitly expressed the intention to interfere with the front office that drafts his son, and will be an obvious candidate to replace the head coach. It's not Shedeur's fault, but the threat is real. Now what team other than the Browns would take on that chaos. Um, Dallas. Okay, but what team other than the Browns and Dallas?

Dillon Gabriel? What team other than the Brown wants a small and slow quarterback? He should not have been drafted at all, and Round 3 makes no sense. For what it's worth, this amateur's belief is that no NFL team will give up a future pick for Gabriel. He will clear waivers if the Browns decide to park him on the Practice Squad.

Kenny Pickett was worth a backup qb (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) plus a Round 6 draft pick. DTR alone was probably worth a 7th round pick. That suggests Pickett's off-season price tag was worth about a Round 5 pick last winter. No other team but the Browns was willing to put up more value. But if he fails in Cleveland this summer, that will devalue him a lot more. Going to a new team, without any training camp reps and only one year remaining on his contract and a $2.6 million cap hit, very likely no team will want him at that price.

Joe Flacco is a proven quarterback that some teams might be interested in as a backup, especially if there is an injury to one of their qbs. A good backup might command a 6th round pick if there is a team looking for an emergency quarterback.

Thus, Flacco is the only qb that I see having any real trade value. And other NFL teams are not like the Browns who impulsively acquire quarterbacks just because. There are going to be a LOT of decent quarterbacks on the market come roster cutdown time. Plus Flacco might well be the Browns number one option.

The Cleveland Browns Have Used 11 Draft Picks on Quarterbacks in 4 Years??!

https://www.instagram.com/thescore/p/DI67Oj3Rl6w/?locale=gb&hl=am-et

The Browns have used 11 draft picks since 2022 on quarterbacks.  Believe it or not, it's true.  They are the most quarterback-obsessed team in the NFL, worshipping a messianic Franchise Quarterback that can never exist with the dearth of talent on the rest of the team. It's a vicious cycle.  With a weak offense, no quarterback can succeed.  Without success, the Browns become more desperate for their Franchise Quarterback.  Well, THERE IS NO MAGICAL FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK IN CLEVELAND.  STOP IT!  Build the team from the ground up, as ever GM has tried to do until he got fired. 

Anyway, here we go:

In 2022, not only did the Browns commit to spending $230 million on Deshaun Watson, but they also threw in the following six draft picks:

2022:  Round 1 Round 4

2023:  Round 1 Round 3

2024:  Round 1 Round 4

In 2023, they also drafted Dorian Thompson-Robinson, an exciting but undersized quarterback in Round 5.  There is no way to prove it, but this writer believes this pick was ordered by Jimmy Haslam.  The evidence is DTR was promoted immediately to second string out of training camp, which is just bizarre, and in 2024, in the middle of the year they demoted Jameis Winston for no reason and once again DTR became second string. That made no sense and suggests meddling from the owner.  Anyway, that's 7 picks. 

For 2025, the Browns traded DTR plus a Round 6 pick to the 49ers for former Steeler Kenny Pickett. That’s eight.

In 2025 they  also drafted Dillon Gabriel in Round 3. That’s nine. It's also a stupid pick given that he is too small and too slow to be an NFL quarterback and he is also 24 years old, which is a bit outside the norm. But anyway, that's nine.

Then they traded a Round 5 and Round 6 pick to move up and take Shedeur Sanders earlier in Round 5.  That's 11 picks. 

Plus we tend to forget that Deshaun Watson is still on the roster with $167 million left on his deal.  The Browns probably would like to spread it over three years rather than two (if they cut him this season they can spread it out between 2025 and 2026), so he has to have a roster spot when he is healthy enough to play, even if he just sits on the bench. It's too expensive to cut him.

So with Watson, Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco on the roster...um, how much room is there for rookies?  Uh, none. There are five quarterbacks on the roster and three roster spots. Why are the Browns blowing draft picks and cap on quarterbacks that cannot be kept on the roster?   

Your guess is as good as mine.  Is Andrew Berry really this foolish, or is owner meddling to blame?  

Is Coach Prime the Next Head Coach of the Browns?

 

Yeah, Coach Prime Might Be the One Guy Who Browns Fans Might Be Willing to Forgive for the Upcoming Post-Watson Era Disaster.

Coach Prime, the Superstar formerly known as Neon Deion, formerly known as Deion Sanders, is probably the front runner to be the next Head Coach of the Cleveland Browns when Kevin Stefanski, two-time NFL Coach of the Year is fired. 

The reason Stefanski will be fired is simple. Deshaun Watson has been employed as the poster boy on the play-now-pay-later plan, and the Browns have deferred the poison pill as far as they can. They must now swallow $130 million dollars remaining remaining on his contract over 2026 and 2027. 

That means the 2026 cap will be charged, in round terms, $80 million dollars and 2027 will be charged another $50 million. No team can win that that kind of dead money taken from the salary pool.  

Rather than blame himself, Jimmy Haslam III will fire Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski.  

What idiot would want to coach the Browns in such a dire predicament?  Only the father of Haslam's hand-picked quarterback, Shedeur Sanders.  

There is a strong rumor that the Browns overloaded the quarterback room so that Jimmy couldn't draft Shedeur, but he went and did it anyway when Shedeur slid.  This writer believes the rumor and moreover also believes that Dillon Gabriel was deliberately overdrafted so that there would be no roster spot for Shedeur.  Gabriel is a sixth round pick who they probably should not have drafted at all based on his lack of NFL speed and size. Still, he can competently can hand the ball off the three headed monster of Jerome Ford, Quinshon Judkins and former Tennessee Vol Dylan Sampson, and throw dink and dunk passes to the likes of former Tennessee Vol Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy.

By the way, why do the Brown have two former Tennessee Vols among their draftees (Tillman was their highest pick in 2023). Then the Browns also picked up former Tennessee Vol QB Joshua Dobbs twice. Isn't Jimmy Haslam III a Tennessee Alum?  What a coincidence!  Or not? 

Perhaps Jimmy, having not learned his lesson from the Manziel affair is making draft picks for the team, making the GM and Head Coach job in Cleveland exceptionally unappealing.  

Only the father of Shedeur Sanders would want to be the Head Coach in such dire circumstances.  Who knows?  It might be a good move. Sanders is a strong enough personality he might force Haslam to stand down and let the new GM do his job. 

Shedeur Needs to Go

 

Shedeur has got to go. This writer is a big fan of his famous father, Coach Prime. However, the Browns are once again entering a realm of quarterback dysfunction.  First of all, we can't prove it, but it is suspected that owner Jimmy Haslam made the call on drafting Shedeur, not Andrew Berry. You have to admit it's weird they drafted two quarterbacks in the same draft when there is not enough roster space for both of them.  So why did the talented Shedeur slide into fifth round?  Much had to do with fear that Papa Prime would seek to influence the Front Office of any team that drafted him.  Drafting Shedeur can get the GM fired if that were to happen.  

It was also rumored that Shedeur gave very bad interviews, possibly because he wanted to discourage certain teams--such as the New York Giants--from drafting him.  That might actually be a sound strategy, given their poor record at developing quarterbacks.  

However, two speeding tickets at over 90 miles an hour is additional evidence of immaturity and a rich kid's sense of entitlement. 

Now the question is whether Haslam is going to protect his kid again, just like he protected Johnny Manziel from a Coach who wanted to start someone else. 

Flacco has a 4-1 record as a starter for Cleveland.  Why do we want to fire him in favor of an unknown rookie?  A case could be made for Kenny Pickett, who has a 15-10 lifetime record.  That's not terrible, is it?

In a sound football organization, the owners carry out ownership functions, the General Manager manages the roster and salary cap, the coaches coach and the players play.  

In a dysfunctional team, you have players that overrule decisions by the coach and GM, and report directly to the owner who makes his own football decisions, overruling the coach and GM. So, the owner's favorite players have more authority in certain matters than the coach or GM. The net result is chaos.  Dee Haslam, who is the CEO of Haslam Sports Group, and not Jimmy, tried to get the organization to run properly and for a while it seemed like it might work.  But with Jimmy's decision to overpay in salary cap and draft picks for "generational talent" Deshaun Watson, that went out the window. 

What we are learning in the Shedeur affair is that Jimmy has not changed and is repeating the same mistakes from the Manziel days.  Shedeur is obviously talented, but also has a sense of entitlement which allows him to think he should drive cars at 100 mph and still be the Face of the Franchise and leader of the team.  Mind, it's one thing if a defensive player does something a bit crazy (in fact we like that), but quite another if the Leader of the Offense does it. 

For those who think Shedeur loves Cleveland is loyal to us, let's ask this very relevant question:  If Shedeur is ultimately cut, he will presumably be signed to an NFL Practice Squad.  So, will  Cleveland be Shedeur's first choice?  If he is so happy in Cleveland he can stay here and learn under Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco and can be promoted at any time.  He's got plenty of money from NIL in college, not to mention his burgeoning merchandising sales with the Browns. So, do you think 76 Lou Groza Blvd will continue to be his home if he has a choice?  

Oh hail nah!  You wanna bet?  He grew up in Dallas, and played college ball in Boulder Colorado, which is close to Denver and  Jackson State, Mississippi, which is 186 miles from New Orleans.  That's only an hour and a half drive for him.  No, if he is cut, he will leave Berea and never look back.  He is only a Brown because he had no other choice.  

 

Browns' QB Room is a Kluge

 

Browns quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco and Shedeur Sanders. Would another NFL team actually trade for one of these quarterbacks? 

The Browns have four quarterbacks, with three roster spots available.  Hence the roster will be decided by competition in training camp and to a lesser extent how they perform in the preseason. Of course, pre-season is against vanilla defenses, so you really should not be able to win a job in the preseason (hello Deshone Kizer), but you can for sure lose your job if you demonstrate that you cannot perform.  

So, to recapitulate, the Browns fired everyone except the immortal Deshaun Watson, who they want to wind up on the Injured Reserve and possibly cash in some insurance money. Joe Flacco was the team hero in 2023, and he had to be traded because he was too good and might make Deshaun look bad. Since Deshaun is out of the picture for 2025, they rehired Joe. He has $3.0 million guaranteed.  Kenny Pickett has $2.6 million guaranteed money. Pickett cost them backup QB Dorian Thompson Robinson (drafted in Round 5 in 2023) and a fifth round pick.  Then they drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders cost them a Round 5 and Round 6 pick . 

Okay adding it up, that's five draft picks used to obtain three quarterbacks, only two of whom will be kept after roster cutdown.  There's a chance, however, that if the Browns cut Gabriel, he could be signed to the Practice Squad because it is not certain that 31 teams will value him anywhere near where the Browns did on draft day.

On the flip side, we all know how good Flacco was in 2023, and Pickett was a Steeler first round draft pick who went 15-10 in 25 starts for the Steelers, who have been a great defensive team, but a lousy offensive team.  

In Cleveland, the QB's job will be to hand the ball off to a running back 60% of the time, throw passes to tight ends and running backs and once in a while connect with a wideout. The Mad Bomber offense of 2024, created to pacify Deshaun, is totally out.  

Flacco and Pickett can both carry out the requirements for the run-heavy Stefanski offense.  Now, if you decide you like both rookies and Flacco and want to trade Pickett, could you? Would another team want to invest in a QB with only one year remaining on his deal?  Trading him at roster cutdown month might be tough. Hence he most likely makes the team backing up Flacco. 

As for the rookies, Shedeur Sanders had a terrible offensive line but still found his secondary and tertiary targets, so we like that, but don't see him as better than Comeback Player of the Year or first round draft pick Pickett.  

Now the real head scratcher is Dillon Gabriel as early as Round 3.  He appears to have high intelligence, high motivation and can run the dink and dunk for Stefanski.  So he is not altogether a lost cause.  But of the factors that are important for a quarterback, the tangible ones, he misses on several:

1. He is older than the average rookie, age 24, so his ceiling might be lower. 21-22 is considered optimum.

2. He is shorter than most (not all) qbs at 5 foot 11. 

3.  He is smaller than most (not all) qbs at 205 pounds. 

4. His arm strength is judged to be so so. NFL Draft Buzz ranks Shedeur first and Gabriel eighth. 

5. His hand size is smaller than average 9 1/4"

6. He is slow. He did not run at the Combine, and his 40 time is variously reported to be in the 4.8s or 4.9s. 

It would have made sense had the Browns selected Shedeur in the third round and Gabriel in Round 5. As it is, they simply over-invested in quarterbacks yet again. 

Would anyone trade anything of value for Gabriel?  That is doubtful.  

We'll see if Gabriel can get us to change our minds.  

The Best Help for Your Quarterback is a Running Game

 

Do you want to know how to best help your quarterback? The average fan will not like this article, because the answer is not investing in speedy wide receivers like everyone thinks. The team spends top dollar for the likes of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr and Amari Cooper. However, If you believe in Statmeister Elliot, you should invest more in the offensive line and running backs.  There is an amazing correlation between the running game and the performance of the passing game.  

Check out Figure 1 below.  The x-axis show rushing yards and the x-axis is the passer rating for each team for the 2024 season. Though there is significant spread in the data, the correlation is unmistakeable.  Those teams with top rushing yards tend to have quarterbacks that perform well. 

It couldn't be more clear. Teams that have lousy running games have qbs with passer ratings in the 80s.  The teams at the top of the league in rushing yards also have quarterback ratings in the range of 100 or above.  

  

Figure 1.  NFL Team Passer Rating versus Team Rushing Yards, 2025. Stats from Pro Football Reference. 

Note some of the statistical outliers from Figure 1. The Bengals and Joe Burrow posted a high passer rating despite a poor ground game.  The Browns were just terrible. They were actually rated about the same when Jameis Winston and Deshaun played, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappy dragging down the averages further with some spectacularly bad games. 

The Colts were really bad with their generational talent, Anthony Richardson, and the Ravens had the best running game AND the highest rated passer in Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless they didn't win the Super Bowl, possibly because defense wins Championships. That's why you draft your top two guys for the defense. Remember that, Browns fans. We'll see if Jacksonville wins the Super Bowl with the speedy wide receiver we wanted.  I kind of doubt whether that plan will work. Remember, the Browns own Jacksonville's number one pick next year and it could be a goodie.  

A lousy running game means your quarterback is going to post lousy numbers, unless you have Joe Burrow on your team (please note: the Browns do not have Joe Burrow on their team). 

So what does Coach Kevin Stefanski want to do?  Well, he likes cold weather, run-first football, run-pass-option (we used to call it play action), screen passes and multiple tight end sets.  He likes cross training offensive linemen to play fullback.  It's a ball control offense that wears down the defense. As a result the running game usually got stronger in the second half and the Browns beat people up at the end of the game. 

Did Jerome Ford Receive a Pay Raise, or a Pay Cut?

It's been widely reported that Jerome Ford has accepted a pay cut to remain with the Cleveland Browns. Reports claim that Ford was due to receive $3.486 million in 2025 but instead accepted $1.75 million.  Overthecap.com lists a signing bonus of $80,537, which according to my pocket calculator makes his 2025 cap number $1.83 million.  Get it right, folks. 

Ford was a fifth round draft pick in the fourth year of a four year, $3,982,148 deal. Overthecap says that he has been paid $322,148 in bonus money, plus three years of salary amounting to $2,560,000, leaving a total of $1,100,000 remaining for year four of his rookie contract. 

  

That was his 2025 salary, not $3.486 million. Thus the new number is $730,000 HIGHER than what he was scheduled to get, not lower. Probably the pay raise was meant to reassure him that he is not being cast aside in favor of glamor rookies Quinshon Judkins from Ohio State, and SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson from Tennessee, and to reward him for playing way beyond expectations for a fifth round pick.  

The most stupid narrative of this off-season is that Jerome was sitting on $3.486 million dollars somehow, and he decides to take a voluntary pay cut because he was afraid of becoming a free agent, and so he he steals Nick Chubb's spot on the roster. Oh puh-lease!

If Jerome is cut from the Cleveland Browns he will be richly rewarded. HE WILL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED BY 32 NFL TEAMS.  Why would Jerome want to take a pay cut to be the second or third string running back in Cleveland? If he gets cut by Cleveland, he will be immediately picked up by another team   "Go ahead, release me. Make me rich!"

So what is the source of the $3.486 million that Ford supposedly was going to get in 2025?  Just as a guess, it might be his agent's fantasy.  Ford might well be worth that much as a free agent, but the Browns are so not going to cut him. A trade is not out of the question on the grounds that the Browns actually have depth; however the Ravens are always four and five deep at the position and it has not hurt them a bit. 

No, something probably got garbled here, as is often the case in Cleveland. All the signs point to Jerome Ford being a valued member of the team, and if Nick Chubb is not re-signed it is because they do not trust his knee, not because of Ford or his contract.  

Why Shedeur Sanders Could Not Be Drafted

 

Shedeur Sanders has his own quarterback coach and assistant general manager with the power to create a disruption large enough to get a Coach and GM fired.  So no wonder no one wanted to draft him. 

So how could Shedeur Sanders possibly slide to the fifth round?  And why is it a good move to draft him in Round 5 if the Browns had already drafted Dillon Gabriel in Round 3?  

Once you realize that the GM who would draft Shedeur in Round 1 would surely be fired, the answer is obvious.  Deion Sanders has too much political power and the team cannot afford to blow a Round 1 draft pick. Deion had said explicitly in the weeks and months leading up to the draft that there were a few teams that he would not allow his son to play for. That is,  USAToday on January 10, 2025 reported as follows: "Colorado coach Deion Sanders issued another reminder that he will intervene if his quarterback son Shedeur is drafted by an NFL team he doesn’t like and said there are a 'couple of teams that I won’t allow him to play for.'"

 

So.....Okay.....Suppose you are an NFL GM. How does this impact your choice in the first round?  Well, if you draft Shedeur and find out that Prime does not like your team, he demands a trade, and you have very little leverage.  Prime is a multimillionaire and his family does not really need the money.  Shedeur can stay out of the game or play in the UFL or something, generate fan gear money or other notoriety-based income and force you to trade him. You, the GM, are humiliated and run the great risk of being fired for wasting a first round draft pick.   

Or what if he plays and hits a rough patch, throws several interceptions? If you bench the kid, Good Lord!  All Hell breaks loose!  Here again, if you started out on the Sanders "Good List," you just got demoted to the "Bad List."  

It's obvious that this is much more negative risk than any other prospect in football.  This guy could get you FIRED.  Browns fans know this only too well, having suffered through the Johnny Manziel debacle as well as the Deshaun Watson Mega-mess-up.  We believe that meddling ownership was behind both of these deals. 

Now, the dynamic changes completely if Shedeur is a fifth-round pick in a competition with three other credible candidates.  Deion can say, "Start my kid or he is going to quit the team!" and Andrew Berry is going to say, "Good! That helps us figure out which three guys we are going to keep! Bur you're still under contract and we are not trading your rights for nothing!"

Losing a fifth round pick is a tolerable ar

Loa

Browns Trade for Kirk Cousins Could be a Win-Win

 

Yes, the Browns like Kirk Cousins better than Atlanta does.  So why not trade him?  The reason is that the Falcons would have to pay some $37.5 million in stupidity tax (cap charges that they would incur and cannot get out of) in 2025, and there is no way you would do this for a late round draft pick. It's a bit like the Browns' Deshaun Watson contract, which is guaranteed to keep them down for three more years.  Nobody will trade for Watson and his bloated salary.  

Both teams would like to make such a trade for Cousins, but the immense cap hit on the Atlanta side makes a straight-up deal very unlikely.   A trade that could work, however, is if you upped the ante by offering to trade back from number two overall to fifteenth overall.  In return the Falcons would have to provide additional draft picks.  

If I were Andrew Berry I would insist on 15th overall in 2025 plus a number one draft pick for 2026 and some additional picks in 2025 in addition to Cousins.

Atlanta gets rid of a qb they don't want, and draft generational talent Travis Hunter. They improve themselves in 2025 and beyond despite an unpleasant cap hit this year.  

The Browns get a QB that Coach Kevin Stefanski believes in, and re-institutes the Stefanski offense with two tight ends, a fullback and dink-and-dunk passing game.  Perfect.

What will make this deal work is if there is a player at 15 that is worth drafting.  This observer believes the draft is deep, just not at the quarterback position. I don't have either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders at the top of the draft, but probably both top-ranked quarterbacks will be gone.  So, are there 13 position players who would be appropriate? I think there are, and here's my Browns-o-centric list:

1. Travis Hunter, CB, Colo 

2. Mason Graham DT, TSUN

3. Armand Membu OT, Missouri

4. Shemar Stewart, Edge, TAMU

5. Will Campbell, OT, LSU

6.     Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

7. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

8. Kevin Banks OT, Texas

9. Abdul Carter Edge, Penn State 

10.   Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

11. Jalon Walker, Edge, Georgia

12. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee

13.   Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

If we get any of these players with 15th overall, I'll be happy. 

I might be interested in a quarterback in the second round, like Jalen Milroe (Bama), Jaxson Dart or Quinn Ewers if one of them survives that long. I actually like Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) over Cam Ward (Miami) on the grounds that he is the best at making decisions under pressure. I think he will go top 10, but if the Browns have Cousins, they have to curb their appetite for quarterbacks, even if he survives to number 15 overall.   

I like Shemar Stewart a bit better than Abdul Carter because Stewart was out of position at DT, and yet posted Myles Garrett numbers at the Combine.  I don't understand the foot injury to Carter, nor do I understand why other analysts think it's fine to ignore it. I do think you have to devalue him slightly despite his immense talent.  I don't want to hear just "he will not have surgery."  I want to hear, "it will be like it was before the injury." There is a difference.  

Ashton Jeanty is at the list among running backs.  I disagree vehemently with the notion that you can't draft running backs high in the first round, because they rarely last ten years.  So what?  Your commitment is four years plus a club option for a fifth, then you can tag him for the sixth year.  You only need to concern yourself with six years to recover your investment. I don't see why there is a such a concern about longevity.  If the time comes when he cannot play, move on and use the money for a cornerback or something.  So I've got a few running backs ranked really high this year.  

Browns are Paying $89 million in 2025 to Players Who Won't Play

 

"Salary cap means nothing!"  So says many a sports journalist. 

However, it does mean something, and the Browns are going to find that out in 2025, since they will be paying $89 million (compared to the allowance of $279 million) to players who are not playing for the team.

Although there was glee and merriment in fan circles that Deshaun Watson's contract was restructured yet again, he still costs $37 million dollars this year, and he probably won't play this season.  Fans, in fact, are grateful he won't play. But the Browns will still owe Deshaun $135 million in 2026 and beyond. This is not survivable. 

The prevailing philosophy of rock-brained sports analysts is the NFL salary cap allowance grows every year, so you can simply defer salaries into the future and have a good team. That's kind of like thinking that because you have a credit card, you're rich.  Well, you're not, and you will have to pay on that credit card. 

In addition to Watson's disastrous contract, the Browns will be charge $52 million on players they have cut or traded away.  That includes $22.6 million for Amari Cooper, $14.2 million for Zadarius Smith and $11.8 million for Jedrick Wills. 

To be fair, the team rolls over $42 million from 2024 (money that they could have spend last year but didn't), so the net disaster is $47 million. Still, it's not wise to totally spend out the salary cap. Most teams carry $10 million or more in carryover.  

The net is that the Browns will be spending probably $55 million less than the average NFL team.  

Think about what you could do with that money (and no, you're not allowed to spend it on more quarterbacks.  Jeez, haven't we had enough on that position?). That's five starting players. 

It's hard to envision the Browns having a winning record next season.   

Who is Calling the Shots on Browns Quarterbacks?

 

Since the Baker Mayfield era came to a close in Cleveland (that's the quarterback who rang up 48 points on Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh in the playoffs, and came close to knocking off Kansas City, but most Browns fans seem to disbelieve it ever happened), the Browns quarterback moves are so stupid that it is hard to believe a football expert actually made the call.  

Strong organization make decisions based on tough competition.  A organization trades the backup quarterback for fear that he might outshine their favored qb and create the dreaded "quarterback controversy." 

What do you see in Cleveland?  When Baker got hurt, many fans wanted Case Keenum to replace him. After all, Case led the Vikings to the playoffs and won a playoff game with Kevin Stefanski as his qb coach. So they traded Keenum away.  In the Watson era, Jacoby Brissett clearly outplayed generational talent Deshaun Watson.  So Brissett was one and done.  The next year Joe Flacco led the Browns to the playoffs and was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year.  Out with you, Joe Flacco!  

A subplot is Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who the Browns seem determined to coddle.  Let's not get down on the kid, but the way he continually got promoted before he was deserving. At the beginning of 2023, he became the number two quarterback as a raw rookie.  Out goes Rocket Man Josh Dobbs, who showed he could play with Arizona and Minnesota.  Then he got promoted again last year over Jameis Winston, and it backfired when Deshaun got hurt and DTR made a mess of things. DTR got injured and Winston came in and looked great.  

The Browns also had Tyler Huntley, a competent backup qb, under contract, and cut Huntley to keep DTR. This analyst believes they could have kept both players.  DTR could have been kept on the Practice Squad, with very little chance that another organization would sign him.  Getting rid of Huntley was stupid.  Huntley started five games for Miami--with very little preparation--and won two of them.  That's 67% of the win total of the Browns last year. 

Jameis Winston is clearly better than Deshaun and DTR, and is well liked by fellow players and the Cleveland fan base.  So he too must leave!  The Browns plan on overspending on yet on another quarterback in 2025 and they have no stomach to face criticism for not playing Winston.  

Winston did not have an easy job, given that he had no running game, a porous offensive line, and a defense that gave up a ton of points, meaning that the QB was obliged to take chances to get back in the game. Anybody who throws for 500 yards with this team must have talent.  

In his career, Winston has always played on bad teams, with the exception of New Orleans under Sean Payton, where he went 5-2 with a 14 to 3 TD/INT ratio.  

If he could do that for Sean Payton, why couldn't he do that when Browns OC Ken Dorsey was calling the shots?  Well, maybe Ken Dorsey was not as good as Sean Payton.  

Firing Winston sounds like something a disgruntled owner might do, rather than a football guy.  

The pattern is that the Browns scouting has performed well, signing the likes of Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, Joshua Dobbs, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley and Jameis Winston.  However, when these guys looked like a threat to Deshaun's legacy, they had to go.  These moves are so peculiar we have to suspect that the orders are coming from the Owner's Box. 

Quarterbacks get better with experience, not worse, as long as they are healthy.  If a QB has a chance to stay with a team for two years, ideally with the same coaching staff, the chances of success are vastly improved. Rookies need that stability most of all, but even veterans execute better if they know the players around them and get thousands of reps with the playbook.   The Browns should have an internal rule against one-and-done.  It's just stupid. 

Browns co-owner Jimmy Haslam III allegedly made the call to trade up for Johnny Manziel.  He also tried to engineer a trade for A.J. McCarron in 2017 (including the draft pick ultimately used on Nick Chubb), but Sashi Brown "accidentally" forgot to sign the paperwork properly and the deal fell through. So there is evidence that he is capable of interfering with the operation of his team. 

We thought that Dee Haslam, definitely the better half of the Power Couple, had talked Jimmy out of direct participation in the team. Maybe not.  

No hard evidence, just the observation that the Browns' quarterback moves--one after another after another--are so stupid that it is hard to believe Andrew Berry is ultimately behind them. 

World's Dumbest Quarterback Narrative

 

The world's dumbest narrative in sports--and it drives me crazy--is that the final score of a football game allows sportswriter/gurus  to distinguish precise differences in the calibre of the opposing quarterbacks.  So,  Bills 27, Ravens 25 proves Josh Allen is a better quarterback than Lamar Jackson, right?  And neither of them are as good as Patrick Mahomes, as proven by the Chiefs 32 to 29 victory. Nope, Josh will never go to the Super Bowl, and the Ravens can never beat the Bills.  

Until they do, of course. All this talk about legacy, stats and all falls apart, especially when KC gets their asses handed to them after being blown out 40 to 22 by the Eagles and Jaylen Hurts. 

So cut me a break.  Football is a team sport, and the other guys on the roster do matter. It is incomprehensible that a game with 22 men on the field depends only on the quarterback. For those idiots who think that playoff games determine who is the better quarterback, are you going to now say that Hurts is 22 points "better" than Patrick Mahomes?  All the accolades for Mahomes (first ballot Hall of Famer, the best in history, blah, blah, blah) now falls to Hurts?  We hear such garbage even from the most prestigious sports journalists, like ESPN and Fox Sports (I'd shut them off, but I'm a sports addict and condemned to listen on my car radio).    

The obvious conclusion is that the team with the best quarterback does not always win.  Sometimes Brady gets beat by Nick Foles. Sometimes Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins make it to the Super Bowl, while Peyton Manning and Brett Favre stay home. This is proof positive that the rest of the team matters. 

How about a hypothetical trade as a true gauge of value? Let's consider  possible trades: Mahomes for Allen, Mahomes for Jackson, Allen for Jackson.  I doubt whether any of their teams would want to make such a deal.  It's not Fantasy Football where you just install your new guy in the lineup and he performs the same. Each team would have to totally revamp their offense, and it would take at least a year and maybe two to get familiar with the other players and coaches. Mahomes is the best man for the Chiefs, Lamar is the best for the Ravens, and Josh is the best for Buffalo.  So, based on this reasoning, their value is greatest for the team they are on. 

Now, in 2021, The trade of Matt Stafford for Jared Goff plus draft picks proved that the Rams did like Stafford much better than Goff. Not all starting QBs are equal. It does not prove, however, that the Rams had zero chance to ever win the Super Bowl with Goff (who, by the way, has significantly upped his game).  It just means that they thought they were a better team with Stafford at the controls.  They were right, and they have rings to prove it.

Similarly, the Browns passed up the opportunity to retain Baker Mayfield at about $30 million per year, in order to obtain the services of Deshaun Watson at $46 mil, plus giving up six draft picks including three first rounders.  Just look at the value:  one quarterback threw 41 TDs and had a rating of 106.8; the other guy had 5 TDs and a rating of 79.0  Unfortunately, the Browns cut the good QB and signed the mediocre one, suggesting that quarterback evaluation is not always accurate. 

Wacky Browns Still Obsessed with Quarterbacks

 

Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson Robinson.  None of them were good enough to turn a weak offense around. 

The Browns still don't get it.  They think that 

     a) the more money you pay a quarterback, the better they play.  So, if you pay a quarterback more than Patrick Mahomes, that quarterback must be even better than Mahomes.  So come on down, Deshaun Watson!

   b) The way you solve a quarterback controversy is to trade away the backup quarterback lest he make the front office look silly.  So, they got rid of Joe Flacco, because he proved the Watson deal was preposterous. Prior to that, they axed Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, and Josh Dobbs. We're getting ready to cut Jameis Winston, despite the fact that he proved himself to be vastly superior to Watson. All of these players are miles ahead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Crown Prince and favorite of the Realm.  For that matter, they are also better than the current number one, Deshaun "Generational Talent" Watson.  

   c) Quarterbacks reach their prime in their rookie season.  How else can you justify drafting Dorian Thompson Robinson in Round 5, and promoting him to second string on Opening Day?  Good grief!  Once in a while there is a Russell Wilson who has success immediately after being drafted in a middle round, but this is very rare.  This writer does not hate DTR, but he probably needs 3 or 4 years to become an acceptable backup, just like Josh Dobbs rode the bench behind Big Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph.

   It's like this:  if you believe that the salary cap is real, than the object is to get the players who will contribute the most and cost the least. It's not that different from Fantasy Football. So, if you pay someone more than Mahomes, he must contribute more than Mahomes. If you are paying more than your opponents and fielding players who contribute less than their peers around the league, you are unlikely to have a winning team. You cannot pay $70 million dollars a  year for a lousy quarterback on a lousy offense for a lousy team, and then run out and outplay the Chiefs.  This is common sense.  

    A good team makes the QB look good.  Get five tough fat kids for the offensive line, two stud tight ends and two good running backs, and and average QB with average wide receivers can score points in the Stefanski offense.

  Joe Flacco was good enough to get into the playoffs, and once you're in you have at least some chance for a Ring.  Brissett, Keenum, Winston and Dobbs had a legit shot also, especially if the Browns had had six draft picks and $230 million dollars to build with. 

Look at the Steelers. With Russell Wilson at a quarterback and when T.J. was healthy, they were a playoff team.  They collapsed down the stretch because their defense was old and injured, but the point is they proved they could win with a low-cost quarterback. 

The Browns can't wait to throw money at ineffective big name quarterbacks, live in fear of their own backups. That's why they will pass on generational talents on defense in order to draft Shedeur Sanders, who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 43rd best prospect in the Draft.  But he plays Quarterback, so that's our guy!