Browns' QB Room is a Kluge

 

Browns quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco and Shedeur Sanders. Would another NFL team actually trade for one of these quarterbacks? 

The Browns have four quarterbacks, with three roster spots available.  Hence the roster will be decided by competition in training camp and to a lesser extent how they perform in the preseason. Of course, pre-season is against vanilla defenses, so you really should not be able to win a job in the preseason (hello Deshone Kizer), but you can for sure lose your job if you demonstrate that you cannot perform.  

So, to recapitulate, the Browns fired everyone except the immortal Deshaun Watson, who they want to wind up on the Injured Reserve and possibly cash in some insurance money. Joe Flacco was the team hero in 2023, and he had to be traded because he was too good and might make Deshaun look bad. Since Deshaun is out of the picture for 2025, they rehired Joe. He has $3.0 million guaranteed.  Kenny Pickett has $2.6 million guaranteed money. Pickett cost them backup QB Dorian Thompson Robinson (drafted in Round 5 in 2023) and a fifth round pick.  Then they drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders cost them a Round 5 and Round 6 pick . 

Okay adding it up, that's five draft picks used to obtain three quarterbacks, only two of whom will be kept after roster cutdown.  There's a chance, however, that if the Browns cut Gabriel, he could be signed to the Practice Squad because it is not certain that 31 teams will value him anywhere near where the Browns did on draft day.

On the flip side, we all know how good Flacco was in 2023, and Pickett was a Steeler first round draft pick who went 15-10 in 25 starts for the Steelers, who have been a great defensive team, but a lousy offensive team.  

In Cleveland, the QB's job will be to hand the ball off to a running back 60% of the time, throw passes to tight ends and running backs and once in a while connect with a wideout. The Mad Bomber offense of 2024, created to pacify Deshaun, is totally out.  

Flacco and Pickett can both carry out the requirements for the run-heavy Stefanski offense.  Now, if you decide you like both rookies and Flacco and want to trade Pickett, could you? Would another team want to invest in a QB with only one year remaining on his deal?  Trading him at roster cutdown month might be tough. Hence he most likely makes the team backing up Flacco. 

As for the rookies, Shedeur Sanders had a terrible offensive line but still found his secondary and tertiary targets, so we like that, but don't see him as better than Comeback Player of the Year or first round draft pick Pickett.  

Now the real head scratcher is Dillon Gabriel as early as Round 3.  He appears to have high intelligence, high motivation and can run the dink and dunk for Stefanski.  So he is not altogether a lost cause.  But of the factors that are important for a quarterback, the tangible ones, he misses on several:

1. He is older than the average rookie, age 24, so his ceiling might be lower. 21-22 is considered optimum.

2. He is shorter than most (not all) qbs at 5 foot 11. 

3.  He is smaller than most (not all) qbs at 205 pounds. 

4. His arm strength is judged to be so so. NFL Draft Buzz ranks Shedeur first and Gabriel eighth. 

5. His hand size is smaller than average 9 1/4"

6. He is slow. He did not run at the Combine, and his 40 time is variously reported to be in the 4.8s or 4.9s. 

It would have made sense had the Browns selected Shedeur in the third round and Gabriel in Round 5. As it is, they simply over-invested in quarterbacks yet again. 

Would anyone trade anything of value for Gabriel?  That is doubtful.  

We'll see if Gabriel can get us to change our minds.  

The Best Help for Your Quarterback is a Running Game

 

Do you want to know how to best help your quarterback? The average fan will not like this article, because the answer is not investing in speedy wide receivers like everyone thinks. The team spends top dollar for the likes of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr and Amari Cooper. However, If you believe in Statmeister Elliot, you should invest more in the offensive line and running backs.  There is an amazing correlation between the running game and the performance of the passing game.  

Check out Figure 1 below.  The x-axis show rushing yards and the x-axis is the passer rating for each team for the 2024 season. Though there is significant spread in the data, the correlation is unmistakeable.  Those teams with top rushing yards tend to have quarterbacks that perform well. 

It couldn't be more clear. Teams that have lousy running games have qbs with passer ratings in the 80s.  The teams at the top of the league in rushing yards also have quarterback ratings in the range of 100 or above.  

  

Figure 1.  NFL Team Passer Rating versus Team Rushing Yards, 2025. Stats from Pro Football Reference. 

Note some of the statistical outliers from Figure 1. The Bengals and Joe Burrow posted a high passer rating despite a poor ground game.  The Browns were just terrible. They were actually rated about the same when Jameis Winston and Deshaun played, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappy dragging down the averages further with some spectacularly bad games. 

The Colts were really bad with their generational talent, Anthony Richardson, and the Ravens had the best running game AND the highest rated passer in Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless they didn't win the Super Bowl, possibly because defense wins Championships. That's why you draft your top two guys for the defense. Remember that, Browns fans. We'll see if Jacksonville wins the Super Bowl with the speedy wide receiver we wanted.  I kind of doubt whether that plan will work. Remember, the Browns own Jacksonville's number one pick next year and it could be a goodie.  

A lousy running game means your quarterback is going to post lousy numbers, unless you have Joe Burrow on your team (please note: the Browns do not have Joe Burrow on their team). 

So what does Coach Kevin Stefanski want to do?  Well, he likes cold weather, run-first football, run-pass-option (we used to call it play action), screen passes and multiple tight end sets.  He likes cross training offensive linemen to play fullback.  It's a ball control offense that wears down the defense. As a result the running game usually got stronger in the second half and the Browns beat people up at the end of the game. 

Did Jerome Ford Receive a Pay Raise, or a Pay Cut?

It's been widely reported that Jerome Ford has accepted a pay cut to remain with the Cleveland Browns. Reports claim that Ford was due to receive $3.486 million in 2025 but instead accepted $1.75 million.  Overthecap.com lists a signing bonus of $80,537, which according to my pocket calculator makes his 2025 cap number $1.83 million.  Get it right, folks. 

Ford was a fifth round draft pick in the fourth year of a four year, $3,982,148 deal. Overthecap says that he has been paid $322,148 in bonus money, plus three years of salary amounting to $2,560,000, leaving a total of $1,100,000 remaining for year four of his rookie contract. 

  

That was his 2025 salary, not $3.486 million. Thus the new number is $730,000 HIGHER than what he was scheduled to get, not lower. Probably the pay raise was meant to reassure him that he is not being cast aside in favor of glamor rookies Quinshon Judkins from Ohio State, and SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson from Tennessee, and to reward him for playing way beyond expectations for a fifth round pick.  

The most stupid narrative of this off-season is that Jerome was sitting on $3.486 million dollars somehow, and he decides to take a voluntary pay cut because he was afraid of becoming a free agent, and so he he steals Nick Chubb's spot on the roster. Oh puh-lease!

If Jerome is cut from the Cleveland Browns he will be richly rewarded. HE WILL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED BY 32 NFL TEAMS.  Why would Jerome want to take a pay cut to be the second or third string running back in Cleveland? If he gets cut by Cleveland, he will be immediately picked up by another team   "Go ahead, release me. Make me rich!"

So what is the source of the $3.486 million that Ford supposedly was going to get in 2025?  Just as a guess, it might be his agent's fantasy.  Ford might well be worth that much as a free agent, but the Browns are so not going to cut him. A trade is not out of the question on the grounds that the Browns actually have depth; however the Ravens are always four and five deep at the position and it has not hurt them a bit. 

No, something probably got garbled here, as is often the case in Cleveland. All the signs point to Jerome Ford being a valued member of the team, and if Nick Chubb is not re-signed it is because they do not trust his knee, not because of Ford or his contract.  

Why Shedeur Sanders Could Not Be Drafted

 

Shedeur Sanders has his own quarterback coach and assistant general manager with the power to create a disruption large enough to get a Coach and GM fired.  So no wonder no one wanted to draft him. 

So how could Shedeur Sanders possibly slide to the fifth round?  And why is it a good move to draft him in Round 5 if the Browns had already drafted Dillon Gabriel in Round 3?  

Once you realize that the GM who would draft Shedeur in Round 1 would surely be fired, the answer is obvious.  Deion Sanders has too much political power and the team cannot afford to blow a Round 1 draft pick. Deion had said explicitly in the weeks and months leading up to the draft that there were a few teams that he would not allow his son to play for. That is,  USAToday on January 10, 2025 reported as follows: "Colorado coach Deion Sanders issued another reminder that he will intervene if his quarterback son Shedeur is drafted by an NFL team he doesn’t like and said there are a 'couple of teams that I won’t allow him to play for.'"

 

So.....Okay.....Suppose you are an NFL GM. How does this impact your choice in the first round?  Well, if you draft Shedeur and find out that Prime does not like your team, he demands a trade, and you have very little leverage.  Prime is a multimillionaire and his family does not really need the money.  Shedeur can stay out of the game or play in the UFL or something, generate fan gear money or other notoriety-based income and force you to trade him. You, the GM, are humiliated and run the great risk of being fired for wasting a first round draft pick.   

Or what if he plays and hits a rough patch, throws several interceptions? If you bench the kid, Good Lord!  All Hell breaks loose!  Here again, if you started out on the Sanders "Good List," you just got demoted to the "Bad List."  

It's obvious that this is much more negative risk than any other prospect in football.  This guy could get you FIRED.  Browns fans know this only too well, having suffered through the Johnny Manziel debacle as well as the Deshaun Watson Mega-mess-up.  We believe that meddling ownership was behind both of these deals. 

Now, the dynamic changes completely if Shedeur is a fifth-round pick in a competition with three other credible candidates.  Deion can say, "Start my kid or he is going to quit the team!" and Andrew Berry is going to say, "Good! That helps us figure out which three guys we are going to keep! Bur you're still under contract and we are not trading your rights for nothing!"

Losing a fifth round pick is a tolerable ar

Loa

Browns Trade for Kirk Cousins Could be a Win-Win

 

Yes, the Browns like Kirk Cousins better than Atlanta does.  So why not trade him?  The reason is that the Falcons would have to pay some $37.5 million in stupidity tax (cap charges that they would incur and cannot get out of) in 2025, and there is no way you would do this for a late round draft pick. It's a bit like the Browns' Deshaun Watson contract, which is guaranteed to keep them down for three more years.  Nobody will trade for Watson and his bloated salary.  

Both teams would like to make such a trade for Cousins, but the immense cap hit on the Atlanta side makes a straight-up deal very unlikely.   A trade that could work, however, is if you upped the ante by offering to trade back from number two overall to fifteenth overall.  In return the Falcons would have to provide additional draft picks.  

If I were Andrew Berry I would insist on 15th overall in 2025 plus a number one draft pick for 2026 and some additional picks in 2025 in addition to Cousins.

Atlanta gets rid of a qb they don't want, and draft generational talent Travis Hunter. They improve themselves in 2025 and beyond despite an unpleasant cap hit this year.  

The Browns get a QB that Coach Kevin Stefanski believes in, and re-institutes the Stefanski offense with two tight ends, a fullback and dink-and-dunk passing game.  Perfect.

What will make this deal work is if there is a player at 15 that is worth drafting.  This observer believes the draft is deep, just not at the quarterback position. I don't have either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders at the top of the draft, but probably both top-ranked quarterbacks will be gone.  So, are there 13 position players who would be appropriate? I think there are, and here's my Browns-o-centric list:

1. Travis Hunter, CB, Colo 

2. Mason Graham DT, TSUN

3. Armand Membu OT, Missouri

4. Shemar Stewart, Edge, TAMU

5. Will Campbell, OT, LSU

6.     Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

7. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

8. Kevin Banks OT, Texas

9. Abdul Carter Edge, Penn State 

10.   Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

11. Jalon Walker, Edge, Georgia

12. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee

13.   Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

If we get any of these players with 15th overall, I'll be happy. 

I might be interested in a quarterback in the second round, like Jalen Milroe (Bama), Jaxson Dart or Quinn Ewers if one of them survives that long. I actually like Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) over Cam Ward (Miami) on the grounds that he is the best at making decisions under pressure. I think he will go top 10, but if the Browns have Cousins, they have to curb their appetite for quarterbacks, even if he survives to number 15 overall.   

I like Shemar Stewart a bit better than Abdul Carter because Stewart was out of position at DT, and yet posted Myles Garrett numbers at the Combine.  I don't understand the foot injury to Carter, nor do I understand why other analysts think it's fine to ignore it. I do think you have to devalue him slightly despite his immense talent.  I don't want to hear just "he will not have surgery."  I want to hear, "it will be like it was before the injury." There is a difference.  

Ashton Jeanty is at the list among running backs.  I disagree vehemently with the notion that you can't draft running backs high in the first round, because they rarely last ten years.  So what?  Your commitment is four years plus a club option for a fifth, then you can tag him for the sixth year.  You only need to concern yourself with six years to recover your investment. I don't see why there is a such a concern about longevity.  If the time comes when he cannot play, move on and use the money for a cornerback or something.  So I've got a few running backs ranked really high this year.  

Browns are Paying $89 million in 2025 to Players Who Won't Play

 

"Salary cap means nothing!"  So says many a sports journalist. 

However, it does mean something, and the Browns are going to find that out in 2025, since they will be paying $89 million (compared to the allowance of $279 million) to players who are not playing for the team.

Although there was glee and merriment in fan circles that Deshaun Watson's contract was restructured yet again, he still costs $37 million dollars this year, and he probably won't play this season.  Fans, in fact, are grateful he won't play. But the Browns will still owe Deshaun $135 million in 2026 and beyond. This is not survivable. 

The prevailing philosophy of rock-brained sports analysts is the NFL salary cap allowance grows every year, so you can simply defer salaries into the future and have a good team. That's kind of like thinking that because you have a credit card, you're rich.  Well, you're not, and you will have to pay on that credit card. 

In addition to Watson's disastrous contract, the Browns will be charge $52 million on players they have cut or traded away.  That includes $22.6 million for Amari Cooper, $14.2 million for Zadarius Smith and $11.8 million for Jedrick Wills. 

To be fair, the team rolls over $42 million from 2024 (money that they could have spend last year but didn't), so the net disaster is $47 million. Still, it's not wise to totally spend out the salary cap. Most teams carry $10 million or more in carryover.  

The net is that the Browns will be spending probably $55 million less than the average NFL team.  

Think about what you could do with that money (and no, you're not allowed to spend it on more quarterbacks.  Jeez, haven't we had enough on that position?). That's five starting players. 

It's hard to envision the Browns having a winning record next season.   

Who is Calling the Shots on Browns Quarterbacks?

 

Since the Baker Mayfield era came to a close in Cleveland (that's the quarterback who rang up 48 points on Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh in the playoffs, and came close to knocking off Kansas City, but most Browns fans seem to disbelieve it ever happened), the Browns quarterback moves are so stupid that it is hard to believe a football expert actually made the call.  

Strong organization make decisions based on tough competition.  A organization trades the backup quarterback for fear that he might outshine their favored qb and create the dreaded "quarterback controversy." 

What do you see in Cleveland?  When Baker got hurt, many fans wanted Case Keenum to replace him. After all, Case led the Vikings to the playoffs and won a playoff game with Kevin Stefanski as his qb coach. So they traded Keenum away.  In the Watson era, Jacoby Brissett clearly outplayed generational talent Deshaun Watson.  So Brissett was one and done.  The next year Joe Flacco led the Browns to the playoffs and was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year.  Out with you, Joe Flacco!  

A subplot is Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who the Browns seem determined to coddle.  Let's not get down on the kid, but the way he continually got promoted before he was deserving. At the beginning of 2023, he became the number two quarterback as a raw rookie.  Out goes Rocket Man Josh Dobbs, who showed he could play with Arizona and Minnesota.  Then he got promoted again last year over Jameis Winston, and it backfired when Deshaun got hurt and DTR made a mess of things. DTR got injured and Winston came in and looked great.  

The Browns also had Tyler Huntley, a competent backup qb, under contract, and cut Huntley to keep DTR. This analyst believes they could have kept both players.  DTR could have been kept on the Practice Squad, with very little chance that another organization would sign him.  Getting rid of Huntley was stupid.  Huntley started five games for Miami--with very little preparation--and won two of them.  That's 67% of the win total of the Browns last year. 

Jameis Winston is clearly better than Deshaun and DTR, and is well liked by fellow players and the Cleveland fan base.  So he too must leave!  The Browns plan on overspending on yet on another quarterback in 2025 and they have no stomach to face criticism for not playing Winston.  

Winston did not have an easy job, given that he had no running game, a porous offensive line, and a defense that gave up a ton of points, meaning that the QB was obliged to take chances to get back in the game. Anybody who throws for 500 yards with this team must have talent.  

In his career, Winston has always played on bad teams, with the exception of New Orleans under Sean Payton, where he went 5-2 with a 14 to 3 TD/INT ratio.  

If he could do that for Sean Payton, why couldn't he do that when Browns OC Ken Dorsey was calling the shots?  Well, maybe Ken Dorsey was not as good as Sean Payton.  

Firing Winston sounds like something a disgruntled owner might do, rather than a football guy.  

The pattern is that the Browns scouting has performed well, signing the likes of Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, Joshua Dobbs, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley and Jameis Winston.  However, when these guys looked like a threat to Deshaun's legacy, they had to go.  These moves are so peculiar we have to suspect that the orders are coming from the Owner's Box. 

Quarterbacks get better with experience, not worse, as long as they are healthy.  If a QB has a chance to stay with a team for two years, ideally with the same coaching staff, the chances of success are vastly improved. Rookies need that stability most of all, but even veterans execute better if they know the players around them and get thousands of reps with the playbook.   The Browns should have an internal rule against one-and-done.  It's just stupid. 

Browns co-owner Jimmy Haslam III allegedly made the call to trade up for Johnny Manziel.  He also tried to engineer a trade for A.J. McCarron in 2017 (including the draft pick ultimately used on Nick Chubb), but Sashi Brown "accidentally" forgot to sign the paperwork properly and the deal fell through. So there is evidence that he is capable of interfering with the operation of his team. 

We thought that Dee Haslam, definitely the better half of the Power Couple, had talked Jimmy out of direct participation in the team. Maybe not.  

No hard evidence, just the observation that the Browns' quarterback moves--one after another after another--are so stupid that it is hard to believe Andrew Berry is ultimately behind them. 

World's Dumbest Quarterback Narrative

 

The world's dumbest narrative in sports--and it drives me crazy--is that the final score of a football game allows sportswriter/gurus  to distinguish precise differences in the calibre of the opposing quarterbacks.  So,  Bills 27, Ravens 25 proves Josh Allen is a better quarterback than Lamar Jackson, right?  And neither of them are as good as Patrick Mahomes, as proven by the Chiefs 32 to 29 victory. Nope, Josh will never go to the Super Bowl, and the Ravens can never beat the Bills.  

Until they do, of course. All this talk about legacy, stats and all falls apart, especially when KC gets their asses handed to them after being blown out 40 to 22 by the Eagles and Jaylen Hurts. 

So cut me a break.  Football is a team sport, and the other guys on the roster do matter. It is incomprehensible that a game with 22 men on the field depends only on the quarterback. For those idiots who think that playoff games determine who is the better quarterback, are you going to now say that Hurts is 22 points "better" than Patrick Mahomes?  All the accolades for Mahomes (first ballot Hall of Famer, the best in history, blah, blah, blah) now falls to Hurts?  We hear such garbage even from the most prestigious sports journalists, like ESPN and Fox Sports (I'd shut them off, but I'm a sports addict and condemned to listen on my car radio).    

The obvious conclusion is that the team with the best quarterback does not always win.  Sometimes Brady gets beat by Nick Foles. Sometimes Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins make it to the Super Bowl, while Peyton Manning and Brett Favre stay home. This is proof positive that the rest of the team matters. 

How about a hypothetical trade as a true gauge of value? Let's consider  possible trades: Mahomes for Allen, Mahomes for Jackson, Allen for Jackson.  I doubt whether any of their teams would want to make such a deal.  It's not Fantasy Football where you just install your new guy in the lineup and he performs the same. Each team would have to totally revamp their offense, and it would take at least a year and maybe two to get familiar with the other players and coaches. Mahomes is the best man for the Chiefs, Lamar is the best for the Ravens, and Josh is the best for Buffalo.  So, based on this reasoning, their value is greatest for the team they are on. 

Now, in 2021, The trade of Matt Stafford for Jared Goff plus draft picks proved that the Rams did like Stafford much better than Goff. Not all starting QBs are equal. It does not prove, however, that the Rams had zero chance to ever win the Super Bowl with Goff (who, by the way, has significantly upped his game).  It just means that they thought they were a better team with Stafford at the controls.  They were right, and they have rings to prove it.

Similarly, the Browns passed up the opportunity to retain Baker Mayfield at about $30 million per year, in order to obtain the services of Deshaun Watson at $46 mil, plus giving up six draft picks including three first rounders.  Just look at the value:  one quarterback threw 41 TDs and had a rating of 106.8; the other guy had 5 TDs and a rating of 79.0  Unfortunately, the Browns cut the good QB and signed the mediocre one, suggesting that quarterback evaluation is not always accurate. 

Wacky Browns Still Obsessed with Quarterbacks

 

Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson Robinson.  None of them were good enough to turn a weak offense around. 

The Browns still don't get it.  They think that 

     a) the more money you pay a quarterback, the better they play.  So, if you pay a quarterback more than Patrick Mahomes, that quarterback must be even better than Mahomes.  So come on down, Deshaun Watson!

   b) The way you solve a quarterback controversy is to trade away the backup quarterback lest he make the front office look silly.  So, they got rid of Joe Flacco, because he proved the Watson deal was preposterous. Prior to that, they axed Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, and Josh Dobbs. We're getting ready to cut Jameis Winston, despite the fact that he proved himself to be vastly superior to Watson. All of these players are miles ahead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Crown Prince and favorite of the Realm.  For that matter, they are also better than the current number one, Deshaun "Generational Talent" Watson.  

   c) Quarterbacks reach their prime in their rookie season.  How else can you justify drafting Dorian Thompson Robinson in Round 5, and promoting him to second string on Opening Day?  Good grief!  Once in a while there is a Russell Wilson who has success immediately after being drafted in a middle round, but this is very rare.  This writer does not hate DTR, but he probably needs 3 or 4 years to become an acceptable backup, just like Josh Dobbs rode the bench behind Big Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph.

   It's like this:  if you believe that the salary cap is real, than the object is to get the players who will contribute the most and cost the least. It's not that different from Fantasy Football. So, if you pay someone more than Mahomes, he must contribute more than Mahomes. If you are paying more than your opponents and fielding players who contribute less than their peers around the league, you are unlikely to have a winning team. You cannot pay $70 million dollars a  year for a lousy quarterback on a lousy offense for a lousy team, and then run out and outplay the Chiefs.  This is common sense.  

    A good team makes the QB look good.  Get five tough fat kids for the offensive line, two stud tight ends and two good running backs, and and average QB with average wide receivers can score points in the Stefanski offense.

  Joe Flacco was good enough to get into the playoffs, and once you're in you have at least some chance for a Ring.  Brissett, Keenum, Winston and Dobbs had a legit shot also, especially if the Browns had had six draft picks and $230 million dollars to build with. 

Look at the Steelers. With Russell Wilson at a quarterback and when T.J. was healthy, they were a playoff team.  They collapsed down the stretch because their defense was old and injured, but the point is they proved they could win with a low-cost quarterback. 

The Browns can't wait to throw money at ineffective big name quarterbacks, live in fear of their own backups. That's why they will pass on generational talents on defense in order to draft Shedeur Sanders, who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 43rd best prospect in the Draft.  But he plays Quarterback, so that's our guy!