Dear Mr. and Mrs. Haslam,
I humbly offer my services to the Cleveland Browns to replace my former idol, Paul DePodesta as Chief Strategy Officer. The organization has gone very, very wrong, and I can definitely do a better job. Or perhaps DePo is actually giving good advice and you are not following it. Or perhaps he has gotten disgusted at having his advice being ignored. In any case, fundamentals are terrible at 76 Lou Groza Blvd. and they need to be fixed. I may not know much, but I'm a nuclear research scientist and I think I can provide solutions to complex problems in an understandable way, and that is why you should hire me.
The DePodesta plan was to hoard draft picks and conserve cap for a few years and then splurge for a few years and try to win it all, then go back to losing and start the cycle over again. My plan is to ALWAYS invest in draft picks and NEVER QUIT. The "splurge" phase was pathological and should simply be omitted.
The problem is obvious, as you can see by comparing the composition of the Ravens roster with the Browns. As of Week 3, they have more first round picks than the Browns on their active roster, and the Browns have more Undrafted players on their roster. Who do you think has the advantage? In addition, forget about solving your problems by starting a rookie quarterback. That imbalance will still exist, and a rookie quarterback will not fix a thing. It's a worthless idea until such time as you have a team to back it up.
If you continue to draft two and three times as many high draft picks as other teams, you will surely win. The DePo plan was flawed because it had a built-in signal that at a certain point it was time to blow it all on frivolous investments, like OBJ and Deshaun, that did not improve the team but totally destroyed the personnel advantage that had been developed. For all his genius, that part was nuts. Just keep going with the part that was working and DON'T STOP THIS TIME.
Here then is the blueprint for success:
1. Stop Accumulating Dead Money
At present, the Browns are restructuring almost all big contracts into the far future every year to get the first year discount. This is like trying to get rich by buying more and more things on credit cards. But players cannot play forever and thus a monstrous "DEAD MONEY" charge awaits the Browns salary cap when they are finally cut. Since 2023, "DEAD MONEY" has inceased as follows: $23.4 M, $42.5 M, $70.3 M. That number will rise to at least $115 M in 2026 and 2027 if Deshaun is cut. This is money that comes out of the Browns cap allowance but cannot be used to pay active players. How can we beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh if we have $115 million less money to spend on players than our rivals? You cannot perpetually put players on first year discount.
2. Trade for Additional Picks in the Draft
The problem is obvious. As shown above, as of Sept 17, the Browns have 10 Round 1 players, the Ravens have 13 Round 1 players. The Browns have 13 Undrafted players and the Ravens have 9 Undrafted guys.
The reason why trading down works is that teams that believe they are one player away from the Super Bowl (i.e., half the NFL) are willing to pay exorbitant prices in draft capital to move up in the NFL draft. The Browns can take advantage of this.
Draft picks can in fact be invested like stocks and other NFL teams eager to win now will offer an incredible Return on Investment (ROI). For example, in this year's draft, Andrew Berry made a great trade with Jacksonville, moving back three spots in Round 1, and acquiring an additional Round 1 pick next year as well as a Round 2 pick in 2025. Using standard valuation methods, the ROI is about 50%, and even higher if Jacksonville finishes worse than 16th overall. Other trades were carried out in later rounds also. For example, an easily analyzed deal occurred when the Bears traded a 2025 Round 5 pick for the Rams' Round 6 pick and their 2026 Round 4 pick. That's a steal for the Bears.
Let's think about value, and apply it to some of the mega-bad-deals of the past. The Browns were doing great after the 2018 season having gone from 0-16 to a winning record the second half of the season under Gregg Williams. At that time, John Dorsey decided it was time to blow money and draft picks. The Odell Beckham Jr. trade made him the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL at the time ($14.5 mil/year sounds cheap now but in 2019 it was a huge number) while simultaneously giving away former Round 1 pick Jabrill Peppers and a Round 1 pick. What if the Browns had had Peppers plus a draft pick (maybe they would have traded back for additional assets in 2021 while retaining some value in 2020), and two premier free agents to face Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020? It is very easy to believe that Buffalo would have played Cleveland rather than the Chiefs for the AFC Championship game.
Now let's talk about the elephant in the room, the true cost of the Deshaun deal. The salary of a middle Round 1 pick in 2022 would be valued at $60 million over four years plus a fifth year option. Generally it's believed that first-contract players are a better value than veteran deals. So if you include the value of the draft picks coughed up for Deshaun (3 firsts, a third and two fourths), that would add at least $200 million to the acquisition cost. Deshaun's salary was $230 million, but if you include the value of the draft picks, the total acquisition cost was over $400 million dollars. No player can possibly worth that kind of money.
The OBJ plus Deshaun deals show that the general formula of record-setting contracts PLUS first round picks is a bad combination. LET'S NOT EVER DO THIS AGAIN!
Overspending is the wrong approach. You win nothing by spending more than anyone else is willing to spend.
This is why you need to hire me. There is no choice but to once again acquire MORE DRAFT PICKS THAN ANY OTHER NFL TEAM and this time DON'T QUIT.
3. Stop Overinvesting in Quarterbacks
Another way you can blow this is to overinvest in quarterbacks. Good grief, the Browns are the most quarterback-obsessed team in the NFL, edging out the Jets and Giants. Cool it for a few years. In the last four years the team has already mortgaged its future in the Deshaun debacle and also burned four additional draft picks in the past two years. We already discussed the financial insanity of Deshaun's acquisition, but throwing away additional draft picks is doubly insane.
There needs to be an internal rule that the team will not fire a quarterback without two full seasons on the team. Even veteran quarterbacks generally improve in their second year with the same team and the same system. One and done is a bad habit.
The Browns do not need to draft another quarterback in 2026. You already drafted two quarterbacks in 2025. Develop them. Both Tyler Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders have shown promise. The Browns will likely have priority on the waiver wire for the roster cutdown after training camp, and we can choose a decent quarterback for third string. Somebody like Tommy DeVito or Tyler Huntley will certainly be available again. Even Bailey Zappe will know the playbook and the team by then. You don't need to throw draft picks away for a third quarterback until Gabriel and Sanders have had a true opportunity.
4. Run the Damn Ball
The surest guarantee of quarterback success is a strong running game behind a strong O-Line. Build that first. The classic mistake is to draft a rookie quarterback with no talent around him and start him immediately and hope he learns by leading the NFL in getting sacked. Hello, DeShone Kizer. The Browns have ruined many quarterbacks by getting too excited about them and putting them on the field too early and having them learn bad habits.
The top 10 rushing teams averaged 10.7 wins last year, and the top rushing team was Philadelphia, who won it all. So if you're going to trot out the tired cliches like "it's a quarterback's league," the numbers say that running the ball is very important. Few teams had success throwing the ball without a complementary running game.
For a while, the NFL went through a phase in which they thought that running backs were not important to draft because their average career was not very long. Well, the commitment is not very long either, and if they leave as free agents, you get a compensatory draft pick to take their place. Also, great running backs last longer than average running backs. So NFL teams are starting to rethink the taboo on drafting running backs early. The Ravens' running back room always has a feature back; a third down guy with outside speed and pass catching ability; a short yardage guy; and a 300 pound fullback. We should do likewise.
For years, cornerbacks have been highly prized because they generate INTs. However, did anyone notice that INT numbers are way down in today's NFL? The Browns had 8 fumble recoveries on defense and 41 sacks versus just 4 INTs. So, I'd rather generate more sacks in today's NFL. In the defensive backfield, I'd look for cover guys, not the INT artists, in order to give the linemen an extra split second to sack the QB. That's how drives are ended these days. Hence I'm more inclined to go after corners in like Round 3 rather than Round 1. In fact, I'll take two. We're playing mostly zone.
5. What If Myles Garrett Demands Out?
This is the hardest part of the article to write. What if Myles Garrett is unwilling to suffer through the end of the Deshaun payoff and wants out? He is the greatest defensive player that the Browns have ever had. But I think it's unfair to deny him his shot at a Super Bowl. If he demands out, he is going to have to be granted his wish, much like Micah Parsons. I don't think the Browns have a choice.
Besides, the Parsons deal favors the Packers in Year 1, and maybe even result in a Super Bowl victory, but just like the Deshaun deal, by year 4 they will be missing those two number one picks, and $188 million dollars worth of cap will punish the roster by Year 4. The Cowboys are actually headed in the right direction, but like the Browns, they have a number of sins to repent for before they can win again.
Summary
There is no easy way out, no magical Franchise Quarterback who will make up for the massive lack of talent on the Browns roster. You will have to make investments in extra early round draft picks in order to improve.
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