NFL Backup Quarterbacks in 2014; Who WIll the Browns Sign?

.      Even if the Browns draft a quarterback in the first round, they will probably also bring in a veteran free agent quarterback. Brian Hoyer is probably the incumbent starter, but the rookie will get a shot, and there might be an outside shot for a veteran to seize the job like Campbell did in 2013.    But Campbell will likely be cut because he is getting close to first string money ($3.25 Million), and currently he projects to the number three qb.  Weeden will probably be cut out of spite, even though the Browns will incur a salary cap penalty due to the rules about bonus money (it costs the Browns $2 Million to cut Weeden--it does not save money to cut him, it costs money to cut him).  But I think they would rather cut him and have some other quarterback with less baggage with Cleveland fans.  At the end of this blog, I've listed the primary backups for each NFL team, followed by a list of free agent quarterbacks. 

 

     Note also that for the Browns, the second string guy has been called upon to start games every year since 2001.  More often than not, the third string guy has also  had to start games including both 2012 and 2013.  So it really does matter who the backup is, as well as the third string guy. 

 

    So who are the best  backup quarterbacks in the NFL, and how good are they?  And how about the available free agents?  I've listed the principal backups below, and under that is a list of the likely free agents available in 2014.  If you just look at the names, listed below, there are only a few guys that look like potential future stars.   Ryan Mallett, a "developmental" prospect with a big arm,  has been the understudy for Tom Brady for centuries, and some people figure he might be worth a number one draft pick by now.  Similarly, Brock Osweiler is the backup for Peyton Manning at 6'7" 242 lbs  and a rocket arm.  He might be ready now if the opportunity should arise.  

 

After sitting for two years watching Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler might be the backup quarterback with the most potential in the NFL 

 

 

    Otherwise, NFL backup qbs  are not exactly superstars, though some recycled veterans have had some success in the past, including Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub and Kyle Orton.  I think the top 10 or so backups  are good enough to win with a good team behind them, but would probably not change the fortunes of a team like the Browns.  I would put both Campbell and Weeden in that category by the way. Unless the talent level of the team changes (say if they actually add some good players), I think that the Browns would be about  a five win team with either Campbell or Weeden.     As for the free agents, I think that we are probably talking about guys at the same talent level. Strictly backup material. 

 

34-year old vet Josh McCown was great subbing for Jay Cutler, but because of his age is regarded strictly as a backup. 

 

 

     Note also that there are already four recent Cleveland Browns serving as backup qbs, and probably there will soon be two more if they cut  Weeden and  Campbell:  Thad Lewis, Josh Johnson,  Colt McCoy, and  Bruce Gradkowski.  They are all pretty competent players, imho, though they are not going to be All Pro.  In any case, I'm not sure how smart it is to continually sign and cut backup quarterbacks.  It would be great if they could keep a guy around for a few years to become really familiar with the personnel and the plays. Put it this way, I would be happy to trade back Weeden and Campbell for Thad Lewis and Colt McCoy.  I don't think it would make much difference overall in quarterback play, and if anything that Browns might have been slightly better off sticking with the guys we had in 2012, rather than expending a first round pick and a big free agent contract.     

 

Did anyone notice that former Browns backup Thad Lewis outplayed E. J. Manuel for the Bills last year?  He was 2-3 in five starts with a qb rating about the same as Hoyer's. 

 

    No matter, that isn't the way things are done in Cleveland, so if Campbell and Weeden are both gone, I think I might take my chances with Chad Henne (former starter with Jacksonville and Miami) or maybe Tavaris Jackson.   A lot depends on the thinking of the free agent though.  Sometimes they figure it is better to remain unsigned until some team's starter goes down, at which point they might be willing to offer a starting job immediately.  I kind of think Mike Vick might try that this year, and thus may not sign immediately with a new team. 

     One other scary possibility is Mark Sanchez, he of the infamous Butt Fumble.  But Coach Pettine knows him from his time as the Jets Defensive Coordinator, and based on that relationship it is not crazy to think that Sanchez might be evaluated for the post.  Doubtless Sanchez got blamed for a lot of things that were really Rex Ryan's fault, and in any case he did lead two teams to the AFC Finals. 
 
      They would probably begin the season as the number three quarterback behind Hoyer and the rookie if we go ahead and draft one.   

 

Could someone like Chad Henne be signed as a number three quarterback by the Browns? 

 

 

Current NFL Backups

 

Ryan Mallett, NE

Brock Osweiler, Denver
Matt Barkley, Philadelphia
Josh McCown, Chicago
Kyle Orton, Dallas
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tennessee
*Thad Lewis, Buffalo
**Jason Campbell, Cleveland
*Colt McCoy, San Francisco
Matt Schaub, Houston
Matt Hasselbeck, Indianapolis
Matt Moore, Miami
Matt Simms, NYJ or Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel, MinnesotaTyrod Taylor, Baltimore
*Josh Johnson, Cincinnati
*Bruce Gradkowski, Pittsburgh
Ricky Stanzi, Jacksonville
Chase Daniel, KC
Matt McGloin, Oakland
Brad Sorensen, San Diego
Ryan Nassib, NYG
Kirk Cousins, Washington
Kellen Moore, Detroit
Scott Tolzien, Green Bay
Dominique Davis, Atlanta
Matt Blanchard Carolina
Ryan Griffin, New Orleans
Mike Kafka, Tampa
Drew Stanton, Arizona
Austin Davis St Louis
BJ Daniels Seattle

2014 Likely NFL QB Free agents

Mike Vick

Chad Henne
Matt Flynn
Josh Freeman
Shaun Hill
David Garrard
Charlie Whitehurst
Kellen Clemens
Luke McCown
Jimmy Clausen
Brady Quinn
Tavaris Jackson










 

Browns Banner, Lombardi Out, Farmer In. But Will it Help?

 

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   The Browns shook up their horrific front office today, firing Mike Lombardi as well as Joe Banner.  This was not a completely bad thing.  As the Village Elliot has pointed out, Lombardi was incredibly bad in his first draft for the new Browns, such that the Browns had zero starters on the 2013 from the draft.  Barkevious Mingo or Leon McFadden might have an outside chance of emerging later on, but it was a  horrible draft.  Free agents were somewhat better, with starters Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant being  signed, albeit at a very high price.  Then there is the case of Brian Hoyer, who Lombardi liked but nobody else did. 

     Banner seems to have been a destructive force in the organization, as he sought to expand his turf to encompass Lombardi's personnel decisions.  He apparently turned off a number of candidates for the coaching vacancy, with good reason.  Does the coach report to the GM (Lombardi)?  Or to Banner?  Or to the owner.  This fundamental issue could not be answered by the Browns, and this is one major reason why their management is known as the Three Stooges. 

    Normally, I would be jumping up and down with joy at the news that Lombardi and Banner are leaving town.  However, I want to first know whether new GM Ray Farmer is actually going to be in charge of this draft.  Or will it be the one person worse than Lombardi, namely owner Jimmy Haslam?  Will we satisfy the owner's whim to draft Johnny Manziel, sacrificing two or three first round picks in the process?   In the latter case, all those resources (say two number ones and a number two?)  tied up in one guy could prove to be problematic down the road.  If you use two or three top draft choices, that means you are not drafting Sammy Watkins, and you are not getting top-drawer help for the offensive line or at running back.  Is Manziel so good that he can compensate for all that? 

         All the evidence we have is that Haslam is determined to get Johnny Football for the Browns, and anyone who disagrees with him gets fired.  It looks like a number of coaching candidates tried to reason with him, and as a consequence they were no longer candidates.   

    Also, will Haslam allow Farmer to spend money at parity with the rest of the league?  Or will the Browns once again lead the league by paying the lowest salaries in the league versus the salary cap? 

     If  they choose to, the Cleveland Browns could spend up to $45.46 million in additional salaries in 2014, according to Chris Pokorny in Dawgs By Nature(  cleveland-browns-set-to-have-about-45-million-in-cap-space ).   Chris does a good job of explaining the basics, and if you want more numbers you can check out overthecap.com ( http://overthecap.com/  ).  

 

   The $45.46 million includes a  "rollover" of  $24.5 million that they did not spend in 2013. This is kind of like money in the bank.  Once it is spent it is gone.  Even so,  if the Browns to save the carryover money to 2015 or later, they still have at least $20 million that they can spend in 2014 to improve the team.   The total amount that can be spent on salaries is $126 Million, or $150 Million if you want to spend the rollover.    

     But will Haslam be comfortable in allowing the Browns to spend moneyh while the Pilot Flying J rebate scandal is still not resolved, and the threat of a Federal indictment is still possible? 

 

 

     My guess is--and it is just a guess--that the Browns will once again undercut the salary cap and be among the lead leaders in dollars under the salary cap.   The hope will be that the Pilot Flying J situation will stabilize and allow the Browns to compete salarywise with the rest of the NFL in 2015 and beyond.  Good luck with that, Mr. Haslam.   

 

 

    

Grading Mike Lombardi's 2013 NFL Draft

    So how did Mike Lombardi actually do in his first NFL draft?  They say you need to wait a few years to evaluate, which is usually true, but in this case all the players might be out of the NFL by that time.  And in fact, Mike Lombardi might be out of the NFL by that time.  
   
      The fact is that there has been very little talent extracted from the draft over the past few years.  

 

1.  Barkevious Mingo, OLB.   Mingo proved to be a promising backup, ranked 38th out of 42 outside backers by Pro Football Focus.  That is not real good for the sixth overall pick.  It was understood that Mingo was too small to play defensive line, but even at linebacker he appeared to struggle against the run, especially later in the year.  New Coach Mike Pettine says he wants Mingo to come in a little heavier, and perhaps that will help him contend for a starting role this year.  

  Was Mingo worth the Number 6 overall pick in the first round?  Well, no....

2. No pick.  That pick was traded for Josh Gordon by the previous administration, the best move ever made by Tom Heckert.  This pick does not count for Lombardi, and in fact the Browns were trying to trade him away at the NFL trading deadline last year. 

3.  Leon McFadden, DB. The Browns were afraid to play Leon in 2013, who was the fourth defensive back.  He was usually torched when he did play.  Defensive backs often improve a lot between their first and second year (for example, Buster Skrine was much better last year than his rookie year), but McFadden seems to have a long way to go before he can be a starter or even the nickel back.  

4.  Traded for a 2014 3rd Round pick from Pittsburgh.

5.  Traded to Miami for Davone Bess.  Bess dropped a number of passes last year, and did not gain very many yards, despite a very large contract with guaranteed money.  Davone seemed to be in a drug-induced stupor over the off-season, and no one is sure what will happen to him.  

Bess showed flashes of brilliance, but mainly was known for dropping the ball in crucial situations.  

5.  Traded to Indianapolis for a 2014 4th round pick.  

6.  Jamoris Slaughter, S.   Slaughter was drafted despite a career threatening Achilles Tendon tear.  At 6'0", 200 pounds and a 4.6 sec 40 yard dash time before the injury, he was not considered a prospect.  Notre Dame used him at both safety and linebacker, but there is no such animal as a 200 pound linebacker in the NFL.  Similarly, a safety who runs a 4.6 is considered slow by NFL standards.  So it is not clear what Lombardi was thinking.   A guy with linebacker speed and safety size?  

7.  Armonty Bryant, DE.  Bryant slid into the seventh round because of off-the-field issues, but  earned some playing time on the defensive line. 

7.  Garrett Gilkey, OT  Gilkey has the size and physicality to be a good lineman, but is very raw. He started one game in 2013 and played in a few others.  

Amazing, the Browns had not one regular starter emerge from the 2013 draft despite occupying the number six position in the draft.  Normally, the guys drafted in Rounds 1-3 are expected to either start or at least be solid contributors.   The best moves appear to be the ones in which the Browns traded 2013 draft picks for 2014 picks, because these picks still exist and might someday contribute to the team.  It looks like Mingo is certainly behind Jabaal Shears in the linebacker corps.  McFadden seemed overmatched as the fourth cornerback, and will have to improve to make the team again.  Bryant and Gilkey made minor contributions as backups, and may be back in 2014 but probably not as starters.  

     Can the Browns really be this bad at selecting players?   Lombardi & Co. did a bit better at signing free agents, signing two starters on defense (linebacker Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant at defensive end).  Chris Owens was a decent nickel back.  The  Browns also picked up two credible starters at quarterback in Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell.   Hoyer will be back in 2014, but because of his high salary cap number, it is likely that Jason Campbell will be cut.   

Keeping in mind that Haslam and Banner both seem determined to draft a quarterback in Round 1 this year, it is doubtful whether Lombardi's acquisitions of Hoyer and Campbell will be much appreciated by his bosses.  They are regarded as potential backups only.  

The Browns also signed a backup tight end in Gary Barnidge, and some backup running backs in Edwin Baker and Fozzy Whitaker.   The Browns also signed Bobby Rainey, but Coach Chudzinski would not play him, so he was eventually cut and signed by Tampa Bay, where he became a solid starter. The other big trade was sending Trent Richardson to Indianapolis in exchange for another 2014 pick. TRich continued to struggle in Indianapolis, another team with issues on the offensive line,  but we at least have to admit that he has not set the world on fire so far.  

Overall, the Browns' personnel was weaker in 2013 than in 2012.   Obviously, it is hard to criticize too much based on a single season, but let us at least admit it was a very rough start for the Lombardi era.   Probably the Browns draft would have to rank at the absolute bottom of the league. The best you can say is that they deferred some picks till 2014 so there is still some hope of landing some players.  As for the free agent signings and trades, they at least wound up with players, and avoided major catastrophe.  I think that the draft is a "D" and the free agent signings are more in the "C" range.  The main problem is that the Browns did not sign as many free agents as they could have, preferring to defer salary cap space to 2014, which is legal under the new rules.  

     Speculation is that they may get some help in making draft picks in 2014.  Ray Farmer might be given more responsibility.  That would probably be a good thing.  

Cleveland Browns Free Agent Moves for 2014

    The Cleveland Browns off-season is always interesting, and this year they are truly at a crossroads.  I honestly don't know if they intend to compete with the other NFL teams in 2014, or pack it in like they did in 2013.  What we don't know is whether the Browns deliberately underfunded the 2013 team in order to spend more in 2014, or whether they were simply conserving cash.   

   But make no mistake, in 2013, the Browns deliberately underfunded the team. The Browns were $24 million under the salary cap, tops in the NFL.   They carried out a number of actions to reduce expenses in 2013 and beyond, including:

     a.  Cutting several veterans at the end of training camp and replaced them with minimum wage undrafted rookies. After an initial flurry, they refused to add payroll, refusing to sign anyone above the NFL minimum except for Willis McGahee.

    b.  Trading two 2013 draft picks  in exchange for 2014 draft picks.

   c.  Trading Trent Richardson for a 2014 draft pick.  That's why they felt they could sign McGahee.

   As a result, the Browns have three extra 2014 draft picks.  The Browns and the Oakland Raiders (who were penalized in 2013 for salary cap offenses in the past) are the teams with the most room to sign free agents. 

    Browns fans hope that this year they will elect to operate with as much salary cap money as the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens.   But even if they do, the true stars are going to prefer to sign with other teams.  Hence they would better off trying to sign their own free agents, specifically Pro Bowlers Alex Mack and T. J. Ward.  

 Will the Browns re-sign Alex Mack?  If he is willing to come back to Cleveland, that would be a good move.  Other Pro Bowlers are not coming to Cleveland.  



T. J. Ward will probably come back as the "Franchise Player."  He will be paid as a top-5 player at his position, but he plays like one too. 

     They will also be able to sign a few additional key starting players, but probably not at the level of last year when they got Paul Kruger to sign a huge five year deal, simply because agents are going to steer their major clients to teams with a less chaotic front office situation.  The Browns will go for guys that are towards the end of their career, willing to take a one or two year contract without a large amount of guaranteed money.   They ought to be able to land role players (for example, a fullback, short yardage running back, blocking tight end, slot receiver, situational linebacker, nickel defensive back, etc).   If they add twenty million dollars of net salary that would correspond to about ten second tier free agents along with ten draftees.   It's not as sexy as adding Peyton Manning or Adrian Peterson, but there is no reason why a winning football team could not result. 


    The Browns could sign even more if they cut some  bloated contracts.  NFL contracts tend to increase year over year, which increases the pressure to renegotiate or cut.  This is a terrible disservice to fans, as it increases the chances that players will leave the team, but it's reality.  For that reason several veterans will probably be forced to re-negotiate or be cut.  For example, Jason Campbell will be  third string in 2014, and none of his $3.25 million contract is guaranteed.  It is very likely that Campbell will either accept a major pay cut (not likely) or be gone in 2014. If so, the Browns may add not just one but two quarterbacks in 2014.   

There are few BACKUP quarterbacks in the NFL better than Jason Campbell (Browns fans tend to hate him anyway).  The Browns will probably cut him.

The Browns may also cut guard John Greco, who did not have a good year last year.  Ahtyba Rubin was a very good player in 2013, but has a huge salary cap number.  Similarly D'Qwell Jackson played at a very high level last year, but even he could be a salary cap casualty.  If they cut Rubin and Jackson, it would create $12 million dollars in salary cap room.  That's enough to sign a half dozen starting calibre players.  

Ahtyba Rubin was a productive lineman, but salary cap rules will cause the Browns to consider cutting him.  I hope he stays, but I'm not sure what will happen.

  

Because of the bonus rules, cutting Brandon Weeden would save salary cap in 2015 but not 2014.  I dunno, for a third string quarterback in 2014, Weeden is not such a bad idea, especially if Campbell is gone, but I predict the Browns will cut him anyway just because this is part of quarterback fever.  The Browns are hot to draft a quarterback this year, and teams that do that feel compelled to banish the previous guy even if they don't have to. Hence I think the Browns will probably cut both Campbell and Weeden, and will try to draft one quarterback, and to sign another as a free agent.   Both will be allowed to challenge Hoyer for the starting job, but my guess is that Hoyer may prevail, at least to start the season.

 

Brandon Weeden was not as horrible as many Browns fans imagine. Salary cap rules favor keeping him in 2014 (but cutting him in 2015).  Because of the bonus rules, the Browns would take a salary cap hit in 2014 if they cut him. The Village Elliot thinks they will cut him anyway.

     So, if the Browns decide to play at parity with the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens in 2014, they have plenty of salary cap room to add a few starters. The salary cap rules could cause them to make a few extra moves.  Mack, Campbell, Greco, Rubin and perhaps Jackson may be among the familiar faces that are gone, but the Browns will have the ability to add several staters, and several backups and specialty players as well.  

     Or they may actually pack it in again, perhaps depending on financial conditions at Haslam's Pilot Flying J business, and if so Browns fans may have to wait until 2015 or later to compete at parity with the other teams in the division.  We shall see what the front office does.  

 

The Real Requirements to Get the Browns' Head Coach Job

Some people are surprised that the Browns were turned down by Adam Gase, but not readers of the Village Elliot's Sports Blog.   The Browns are simply  not looking for a guy that specializes in a pocket passing game.  

 

 

Rather, they are looking for a guy that has experience with the type of offense preferred by the Owner, Jimmy Haslam.  Plus there are some other questions that need to be answered.  Here then are the questions that a coaching candidate needs to answer affirmatively before he can get the job:

 

1.  Are you willing to install a pistol-read-option style college style offense?

 

2.  Are you willing to work for a team whose Owner might be indicted?

 

 

3.  Are you willing to work for a team whose Owner (Haslam) and the Club President (Banner) call the shots on the draft, rather than the GM (Lombardi)?

 

4.  Are you willing to work for a team that will trade three first round draft picks for this year's rookie sensation quarterback (Johnny Manziel)? 

 

5.  Are you willing to work for a team that underspent their salary cap by 24 million dollars last year?

6.  Are you willing to work for a GM that last year obtained no true starters from their entire draft?  

 

8.  Are you willing to work for a team whose Owner lives out of town and has no vested interest in the Cleveland community?

 

 

9.  Are you willing to work for a team that led the entire NFL in minimum wage signees (mainly undrafted rookies)?  

 

10.  Are you willing to work for a team that fired the last guy after only one season?

 

If the answer to these ten questions is yes, then you're our boy!  Sign right here, son....and here are the keys to the Executive Washroom. 

 

 

    

 

Will the Browns Draft Manziel Number One?

 

     Yes.  I believe that the Cleveland Browns will probably draft Johnny Manziel number one in the 2014 NFL draft, and the Browns will hire a creative offensive-minded coach who will attempt to install a college style offense.  And no, none of this is a particularly good idea. 

 

     I've been reading stuff from Peter King (NFL.com) and Scott Sargent (Waiting for Next Year), which to me has the ring of truth to it.   They think that Haslam and Banner like the pistol-read-option style of offense and want a running qb.   Rob Chudzinski  and Turner were against blowing up the current offense and starting over with a college style offense, which is one reason that Chud was let go, and Turner will certainly follow.

 

      It looks like Jimmy Haslam will be a hand-on owner and he wants to control the first round draft selection as well as a compatible coach.  Last year the Browns thought about hiring the innovative controversial Chip Kelly out of college to coach the team, but the Eagles made a better offer.  The Eagles went from 4-12 to 10-6 in one year, and Nick Foles emerged as a star quarterback.  This stung Banner, who came from the Eagles organization, as well as Haslam. 

 

Johnny Manziel is already being photoshopped into a Browns uniform. 

    

    Lombardi was the one connected with Chudzinski.  Hence Lombardi stock is down with Haslam right now.  That is one reason I don't believe the rumors about Josh McDaniels coming to Cleveland.  Lombardi would like that because it would make him look good if McDaniels could help Brian Hoyer become the starting quarterback (Hoyer and McDaniels worked together at New England).  But that is not what Banner wants, nor Haslam, and Haslam writes the checks. So I tend to disbelieve the rumors about  McDaniels,  Whisenhunt or any of the defensive coordinators.  All those rumors probably come from Lombardi, who is definitely not calling the shots. 

Sometimes you can get the feeling that Lombardi is kind of left out. 

 

    Haslam and Banner  are dying for someone to tell them that the pistol-read-option will work in the NFL, and that all they need is the right quarterback (Manziel).  They need someone experienced at designing plays for, say, Seattle or San Francisco.  That's why even Adam Gase, the 35 year old Offensive Coordinator for the high flying Denver Broncos, is not a clear fit to what Haslam and Banner want.  Gase has done a great job working with Peyton Manning who of course is a pocket passer and not an option guy. 

 

GM Joe Banner and Owner Jimmy Haslam discussing the future of Brandon Weeden. 

 

     The uncertainty in the Head Coach would be greatly reduced if the Browns could be certain that Johhny Manziel would be quarterbacking the team next year, rather than Hoyer or Campbell.  Hoyer and Campbell have the support of Lombardi, but not Banner and Haslam.  That's why I tend to believe the reports that the Stooges will explore the possibility of trading up for Manziel, since the other quarterback studs in the draft (Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater) are pocket passers and not great runners.  The Houston Texans will seek a deal like the Redskins gave for the opportunity to draft Robert Griffin III (namely three number one picks, including the second overall pick this year).  The Browns could do it, since they have two number one picks this year.

 

    Manziel will certainly be able to perform in the NFL, though I have my doubts whether he is really a top 5 guy.  He has the record, and the speed but he is only 205 pounds and is considered a good but not great passer at this point.  Similarly, the other guys have talent, but maybe not elite talent.  Any of them could make it, but I look at them as late-first-round, early-second-round guys and not necessarily the next John Elway.  And I think there are guys like Zack Mettenburg, A. J. McCarron, or Jimmy Garoppolo that might be worth a flyer later on in the draft.     

 

   For the record, I don't expect the new quarterback to exceed 2013's passing totals, with over 4000 yards passing and 20 INTs.  2014 will be much worse if there is a rookie quarterback trying to sling the ball all over the ballyard.  I don't view any of the prospects as truly worthy of being picked in the top 10 of the first round.  Normally, such guys have size, speed, arm strength and a college record to back it up.

 

   This is especially true if the Browns continue to trim the overall payroll.  My guess is that until the rebate scandal at Pilot Flying J is fully resolved (like, is Haslam going to get indicted or not?), the Browns will continue to underspend the salary cap.   At the same time, free agents will avoid the Browns and their losing reputation.  

 

    Of course, if the Browns fail to improve their pass blocking and running game, whoever they install at quarterback will likely be crushed like a grape.  Browns quarterbacks were knocked out of the game four times last year.  

 

      But bad teams are always willing to believe that a new quarterback and a new coach will solve all their problems. 

 

   

 

   

Blowing Up Brian Hoyer

Browns fans are madder than hell and they ain't taking it no more!  Brian Hoyer, the fans want you gone.  Not sure who they want in, but it isn't you.

Why do Cleveland fans seem to hate Brian Hoyer?  Many want Johnny Manziel or some other hotshot, rather than helping team improve in other areas.

Judging from Facebook forums and other public media, the number one priority of the Cleveland Browns ought to be upgrading the quarterback position, and replacing Brian Hoyer.   To me, this is a clear case of Quarterback Fever, which afflicts fans and General Managers alike, and makes them fascinated by the quarterback position to the exclusion of all else.

Keep in mind that the Browns finished 11th in the NFL in passing yards this season.  Not last.  Never mind that the halfback had the worst yards per carry average in the NFL.  Never mind that the porous offensive line led the NFL in hits allowed on the quarterback, and finished third in the league in sacks allowed with inconsistent play at both guard spots.   Never mind that the Browns had only two solid receivers (Pro Bowlers Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron).   Browns fans want to replace Brian Hoyer. 

How bad was Brian Hoyer?  Well, the Browns as a team won four games, with Hoyer quarterbacking the team in to of those of those games and starting a third winning game before hurting is knee.  In the other games started by Brandon Weeden or Jason Campbell, the Browns went 1- 11.  Hoyer played in only three games before going out with a torn ACL.  Nevertheless, 3-0 is not good enough for this team, apparently. 

Hoyer's had a few years backing up Tom Brady of the Patriots as well as Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and also played a little in Arizona.  He has passed for over 1000 yards in his brief career, which is not a lot but enough that he is no longer a raw rookie. 

Certainly if there is some phenomenal  talent out there, like a John Elway, an NFL team would draft that player whether they need a quarterback or not.  But it seems that Browns fans want a rookie quarterback regardless of whether he is really any good or not.

My guess is that Farmer sees a plethora of good-but-not-great qbs in this draft, while guys like Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews grade out as potential All-Pros.
My guess is that the Browns will draft a quarterback or maybe two, but not necessarily the top guys.    Hoyer will start training camp at the top of the depth chart, despite the fans wanting to do away with him.  It will be up to the other contenders to convince Coach Pettine to move them up.  I don't expect a rookie to be handed a job on a silver platter.

This is not Coach Pettine, and this is not how a new QB will be handed a starting job. 

    

Derek Carr is a good quarterback who could go early, maybe even to the Browns.  Some people worry his career might follow the same path as his brother David's.  But don't worry, former Browns guru Chris Palmer is not coaching this kid, like he did David Carr and Couch!

Blake Bortles is another potential  top 10 pick.  But can the Browns have a quarterback who sticks out his tongue while making a pass?  

To listen to the news media, Teddy Bridgewater might have been the best quarterback in the draft in February, but now that it's April, he may not be selected until the second round.  Really?

I think Jimmy Garoppolo may sneak into the first round.  He did not play Division I-A ball, but he has a big league arm to go with 53 TD passes last year.  

The Lynch Mob is highest on Johnny Manziel, who they are convinced is ready for instant stardom. The Village Elliot, however, thinks that Manziel grades out more like a late first round pick rather than an early pick. Here he demonstrates the universal Klingon salute. 

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Browns Defense is Not All That

      Gee it's Christmas, and I have a lot to be grateful for...but instead I am going to complain a little about our favorite team.  Most of my friends and even the national media seem to agree that the 2013 Browns defense is way improved over the boring 2012 Shurmur-Jauron version.  But if you look at the numbers, we have given up way more points this year than last year (386 with one game to go, versus 368 surrendered last year), and are actually scoring a little bit more.   

   This season, I have complained loud and long about the Browns shutting down their rebuilding program after the scandal at Pilot Flying J hit (the company owned by Jimmy Haslam III), so that the Browns led the NFL in dollars under the salary cap, currently at about $24 million.  You can get 10 NFL starters for that kind of money.  But let's talk about  some of the specifics.  

     Our defense can stop the run and sack the quarterback, but if we don't get him we are pretty much getting torched through the air.  The Browns added some quality players (notably Kruger, Bryant, and Mingo), but we got rid of a lot of middle-tier situational players.  That has hurt a lot.  
     Early on, the Browns had an interesting concept.  They had 3 guys on the line in Bryant, Ruben and Taylor who had actually played nose tackle.  Then they took two pass rushing defensive ends and turned them into outside linebackers in Sheards and Mingo.  Likewise, Paul Kruger was originally a defensive end who was switched to linebacker by the Ravens.  So  for a while they were about the biggest, scariest pass rushers in the NFL.  But after a while the rest of the league figured out what to do about it.  Namely, the LBs are not that good in pass coverage, and they are thin in the defensive backfield if the other team uses a 3 or 4 or even 5 wide receiver set.   Now the Browns look slow and plodding as opposing quarterbacks slice them up almost at will.  

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Paul Kruger has been a very fine football player for the Browns this year, generating sacks and playing well against the run as well.  

Barkevious Mingo has been an athletic and sometimes spectacular player at linebacker.   

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Desmond Bryant was a force for the Browns on the line, until a heart problem put him on IR.  We hope and pray that surgery will prolong his life, as our first concern.  But if the surgery is fully successful,  we will see him back on the field in 2014.    

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The Browns players seem to love playing for Defensive Coordination Ray Horton.  But although they have improved in some areas, so far the defense has not responded overall.  

    Buster Skrine gets my vote as the most improved Brown in 2013.  In the past, opposing offenses would rarely throw at Joe Haden, so instead 90% of the passes were to Buster's man. That made him look worse than he actually was. But this year, Skrine has 19 passes defended and an interception alongside Haden, with 20 PDs and 4 INTs.   

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Buster Skrine has become a reliable number two corner alongside Joe Haden.   

     Behind Skrine, things get murky.  The Browns second highest draft pack was Leon McFadden in the third round.  But so far the youngster has struggled.  He has not been credited with a single pass defended and only 14 total tackles. 

 

    What the Browns don't do well is play the pass, especially with linebackers in pass coverage.   Worse, if opponents play extra wide receivers, the Browns are not able to substitute extra defensive backs effectively.  

   So what have we got here?   The Browns added some quality players and subtracted some middle-range players from defense, while reverting to the 3-4 defensive alignment.   But they are giving up more points than the "boring" Shurmur-Jauron defense.  To sum up, the Browns have talent but not depth, especially in the defensive backfield. They could also use some situational linebackers that are better at pass coverage and pursuit even if they are not great pass rushers.   In some ways they are markedly improved, but as a unit the Defense is perhaps a little worse than it was in 2012.  Sorry to say so, but that is the truth.  

NFL: Here is How to Reduce the Number of Tie Games

  The NFL hates tie games.  More precisely, the TV networks hate it, because they need predictability in order to schedule programming, and overtime messes with that.  But everyone hates tie games, so that obliges the NFL to play several overtime games per year.  

   My suggestion is that most of these ties in regulation can be prevented by a simple rule change:  

Don't allow teams to kick the ball to create a tie in the fourth quarter.  If a team is behind by three points, don't allow the other team to kick a field goal.  Make them go for the touchdown.  It's much more exciting anyways to see the quarterback throw a Hail Mary pass into the end zone rather than watch a field goal kicker boot the ball. 

At the end of the game, wouldn't you rather see this, instead of an attempted field goal?  

Similarly, if a team is behind by seven points and they score a fourth down touchdown, don't allow them to kick an extra point to send the game into overtime.  Make them try to score the two point conversion for the win right there.  This is almost a same chance of success anyway.  The stats show that the chances of making a two point play are about 45%.  If you go to overtime, it's 50-50 whether your team will win.  

In the 4th Quarter, teams should have to go for the win, not the tie.   Go for two!

    It would still be possible to have a tie game, but the likelihood will decrease significantly.  For example, you could still have a tie game if the score is initially tied prior to the fourth quarter, and stays tied throughout the fourth quarter.  Or, suppose some team is down by two points and they score a safety.  Or if a team is down by 8 points, they could get a touchdown and a 2 point conversion to tie. 

   If you want to be really fanatical about it, you could impose the rule earlier, so that even in the first half you would have to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a field goal to tie it.

    The extra point is the most boring play in football, anyway.  Why not give teams a reason to go for two more often?  Stop having so many tie games in regulation, and everyone will be happy.   

Big 10 Championship Could Go Overtime--Buckeyes vs Spartans

I'm very excited to be attending the Big 10 Championship Game tonight between the Michigan State University Spartans and The Ohio State University Buckeyes.   I think this game could go either way.

Ohio State is ripe for an upset.  The fans are utterly complacent, figuring that it is an automatic win and that the entire issue is whether OSU will have enough momentum in the polls to beat Auburn and SEC (Sacred Ego Conference).  The answer:  YES OSU WILL GET THE INVITE TO THE CHAMPIOSHIP BUT ONLY IF WE WIN THE **** GAME!

In this situation, the favored team just wants to get to the next game, which would be for the National Championship.  On the other hand, for the underdog THIS game will be the highlight of the season, win or lose.  The psychology of the situation favors the Spartans.  


Michigan Sate is just as good as Ohio State.  They have a the top defense in the nation statistically, and they stop the run, which is Ohio State's specialty.  Michigan State lost a close game to Notre Dame, or otherwise they would be undefeated like OSU.  Moreover, OSU eked out a 42-41 win over over the Michigan Wolverines.  Michigan State, on the other hand, destroyed the  Wolverines this year, 29-6.  

Michigan State's defense does not generate huge stats.  They get their share of sacks and interceptions, but mainly the opponents don't move the ball against them and they don't score very often.  They are  led by the likes of All-Everything shutdown cornerback Darqueze Dennard,  all-Big 10 Defensive  End Shilique Calhoun and all-Big 10 middle linebacker Max Bullough.  But there are no weaknesses on their defense.

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Darqueze Dennard is a shutdown cornerback.

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Number 89, Shilique Calhoun bringing down the Wolverines Devin Gardner. 

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Middle Linebacker Max Bullough was also All-Big 10 and wishes to show some Spartan Pride come Saturday night.  

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Safety Kurtis Drummond hauls in one of his four interceptionsr.

OSU, on the other hand, was vulnerable to the outside run against Michigan, and was not able to contain Michigan's receivers.  That will have to be fixed to survive Michigan State.  Running back Jeremy Langford is not a power runner, but likes the outside, which is not good for OSU.  The Spartans' passing game does not pile up huge statistics either, but Connor Cook threw only four interceptions for the entire year.  

I have to think that Michigan State is at least a point better than Michigan.  I rate this game as even.  It could go overtime.   

Mock 2014 NFL Draft

    One thing I'm sure about is that the Cleveland Browns will draft a quarterback.  Bad teams, and greedy owners are always fascinated by quarterbacks, especially those with unusual physical gifts.  The Browns are expected to lose Alex Mack to free agency, and currently Joe Thomas is the only other Brown who can block.   
         Next year they will need four new offensive linemen to protect the quarterback.  But if they don't get them, they will draft a kid quarterback anyway, and probably they will trade up if they have to in order to get one.  There won't be any money to upgrade the line and the rest of the team until the Pilot Flying J scandal is resolved and the Haslam family fortune is restored.  So whoever the Browns put back there will certainly be annihilated like Brian Hoyer (ACL), Jason Campbell (concussion), and Brandon Weeden (thumb, concussion). The Browns lead the league in hits on their quarterback by a a wide margin, and are number two in sacks allowed.


     Right now the Browns occupy the 7th position in the NFL draft, and there are some quarterback-cuckoo teams ahead of them including Jacksonville, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.  But Atlanta has a quarterback, and would be willing to trade their pick to Cleveland in exchange for about three first round picks (the ransom paid by the Redskins for  Robert Griffin III, who was pretty good for the second half of the season last year, before getting his knee torn up).  


1.  Jacksonville Jaguars will take QB Teddy Bridgewater.  Like the Browns, Jacksonville has an awful team and will certainly destroy Bridgewater.  But they will be happy to draft him for now.

2.  The Minnesota Vikings will take Fresno State QB Derek Carr, replacing Christian Ponder, who has achieved Antichrist status in Minnesota.  But the Vikings have some talent, so perhaps they may win a few games and drop down in the draft.

3.  The Atlanta Falcons still believe in Matt Ryan, and so they will deal their pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the Browns two Number Ones this year, and another one in 2015.  The Browns will take Johnny Manziel and ruin him.  

4.  Tampa Bay will be willing to wait while LSU QB Zack Mettenberger recovers from an ACL indury.

5.  The Houston Texans are weary of Matt Schaub and may want to go with a quarterback  but if the Browns trade up,  OT Jake Matthews from Texas A&M will pacify them.  

6.  The St Louis Rams will take South Caroline DE Jadeveon Clowney based on his upside potential, overlooking his off the field issues.

7.  The Atlanta Falcons, using the Browns pick, select OSU LB Ryan Shazier to stabilize their defense. 

8.  The Tennesee Titans draft UCLA Linebacker Anthony Barr.

9.  Oakland Raiders draft Clemson WR Sammy Watkins.

10. New York Giants  Texas A&M WR Mike Evans. Somebody has to catch the ball on that team. 

11.  St Louis Rams take  U Buffalo LB Khalil Mack.  

12.  Baltimore Ravens take Michigan T Taylor Lewan to block for Joe Flacco.  

13  Buffalo Bills select Alabama LB C J Mosely to anchor their defense.

14.  Pittsburgh Steelers select Alabama OT Cyrus Kouandjio

15. Atlanta, using Cleveland's pick, takes Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro to replace Tony Gonzalez.

16.  New York Jets go for Notre Dame NT Louis Nix.  Do they need a NT?  Not really but they love to draft linemen.  

17.  San Diego Chargers draft Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.  They need help on defense.

18.  Green Bay Packers take Alabama OT Cyrus Kouandjio to protect Aaron Rodgers.

19. Chicago Bears draft Alabama S Haha Clinton-Dix S.  Haha will stop opponents from laughing at their secondary.

20.  Arizona Cardinals select Michigan State CB Darqueze Dennard.

21.  Philadelphia Eagles go for Notre Dame DE  Stephon Tuitt

22.  Detroit Lions take Ohio State CB Bradley Roby.

23. Miami Dolphins: Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson who is probably better than Johnny Football anyway.  

24. Dallas Cowboys:  Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

25. Cincinnati Bengals: Clemson DE Vic Beasley.

26. San Francisco 49ers: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

27. Kansas City Chiefs: Marqise Lee, WR, USC

28. New England Patriots: Cameron Erving  FSU OT 

29. Carolina Panthers: Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt, a target for Cam Newton.

30. New Orleans Saints:  Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota, another pass rusher for Rob Ryan's defense. 

31. Denver Broncos:  Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

32. Seattle Seahawks:  Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee