The Browns 2013 Draft Needs

So far so good.  The Browns have addressed some of their needs on defense, signed some key free agents.  Hopefully there may be one or two signings to come, but now our attention is turning to the NFL draft .   What are the Browns going to do.  

Well, of course, nobody knows what is going to happen, but that doesn't stop us from trying to predict the future anyway. 

The Village Elliot believes that the team is still very thin, and needs help in a number of areas.

Dude, where's my cornerback?   Joe Haden is great on one side, but you need a second starter, plus extras for nickel and dime formations.  The Browns have added depth at cornerback in the form of Kevin Barnes and Chris Owens, both of whom are probably better as nickel backs, along with Buster Skrine.   The Browns lost Sheldon Brown, a very tough player, but perhaps a guy that that Browns felt might have lost a step. Cornerbacks with speed are gone early in the NFL draft.  Dee Milliner is everyone's favorite here, so much so that I doubt he will fall to the Browns with the sixth overall pick.

 If Dee Milliner is still available at number 6, many observers predict the Browns will take him.  The Village Elliot thinks they will trade down if they can't get him.  Image credit:  www.toledoblade.com

Dude, where's my free safety?  Well, the Browns decided to clear some salary cap room with no one in sight.  Usama Young was cut, and there is no replacement. Most of the mock drafts that I've seen expect the first free safety to come off the board late in the first round or possibly later. Matt Elam might be the best free safety listed, but you can also think about converting a cornerback to free safety depending on the individual.  

  Matt Elam of Florida is a premier free safety, and is already used to orange helmets.  Image credit www.cbssports.com.


Dude, where's my fullback?  These days some teams don't even use a fullback, preferring to start three wide receivers.  But Coach Chud and OC Norv Turner have always used a fullback, and the Browns have lacked one since they let go of Lawrence Vickers for absolutely no reason that I can fathom.  I'm still fuming about that bonehead move.  Fullbacks are available in the late rounds, though, so maybe they can use a pick to get a good one. One guy that intrigues me is  Kyle Juszczyk (Medina/Cloverleaf High School), a kid with a nasty disposition that went to Harvard.  

Dude, where's my kicker and punter?  Oops, we let them go also.  It's very hard to get really good specialists, but there are good ones out there.  It's not totally crazy to audition a few in the preseason and wind up with someone who can do an acceptable job.  For whatever reason, teams don't always draft specialists, and finding one via undrafted free agents is not unheard of. 

The offensive line also did not perform well as a unit, despite having an All Pro in left tackle Joe Thomas, and quality players in Alex Mack at center and Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle. Overall they gave up a lot of sacks, and the running game was below average with first rounder Trent Richardson, Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty.  You do the math, but the Village Elliot figures that the Browns need to add two more offensive linemen. Likely the Browns would be in the market for a guard, but you can't rule out that they might draft a tackle with the intention of moving him to guard. Chance Warmack is regarded as the premier guard in the group, projected to go in the middle of the first round, but very good guards are often available in the late rounds also. 

Drafting a guy who weighs in at 320 with a reputation for pancake blocks is not a bad idea.

What about a quarterback?  Bad teams love to draft quarterbacks all the time, and here's hoping that the Browns can avoid that temptation. The Browns have talent at the position with former number one picks Brandon Weeden and Jason Campell, and a decent third string guy in Thad Lewis.  I think that the Browns may go quarterback if they trade down from the sixth overall pick and feel that there is a stud available in round 2 or 3.  But really there are other positions that need help, much more so than quarterback, so I hope that they don't go that way.

At wide receiver, I've been frustrated for years at the Browns inability to draft decent talent.  This year, depth is a concern, but they have a true number one receiver in Josh Gordon, who came on strong at the end of the year, and unseated the talented but underachieving  Greg Little.  Before getting hurt, Jordan Norwood emerged as a credible receiver in the slot, and Travis Benjamin made some good catches as another deep threat.  There may be enough talent there that taking another wideout is not totally necessary.  

The Browns seem well stocked at defensive line.  They may try to deal defensive end Jabal  Sheard, or if not they may try to convert himi to a pass rushing linebacker.  Either way they could add a 3-4 linebacker with a tracker record as a pass defender.
 
To a large extent, most teams look at the talent first, and the team's depth chart second.  But you also have to look at how the draft is likely to unfold.  Namely, very few good corners are drafted in the late rounds; very few kickers, punters or fullbacks are taken in the early rounds.  

We don't expect them to try to upgrade Trent Richardson (halfback), Joe Thomas (LT), Alex Mack (center), Mitchell Schwartz (RT), or  Josh Gordon (wr1). 

So, taking all that into account my guess is that the Browns will go for a cornerback early on, most likely trading down from the 6th position because Milliner will probably not be available.  A safety, offensive lineman and a  quarterback may be taken early as well.  Later on, the Browns will have to address the fullback position, and one way or another they will have to find a kicker and a punter as well.   The latter might be done with undrafted free agents unless they feel that there is a guy that they can not afford to pass up in the late rounds of the draft. 

Browns trade down and get a number 1 and 2. and a later round pick. 

Maybe something like this: 
 

1) Chance Warmack G, Alabama (trade down)

2) Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

    (by trade)

3)  Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

4) Tony Jefferson, S, Oklahoma

5) Josh Boyce, WR, TCU

5) Oday Aboushi, G, Virginia

6) Kyle Juszcyk FB, Harvard

7)  Caleb Sturgis, K, Florida

How Badly do the Browns REALLY Need Receivers?

 For years, the Cleveland Browns have been short on wide receivers. Somehow they have managed to whiff on wide receivers such as Brian Robiskie, Mohamad Massaquoi, despite their allegedly great potential.  Anyone remember Syndric Steptoe, Carlton Mitchell or Paul Hubbard?  I didn't think so. 

In addition, the Browns lost Josh Cribbs to free agency.  Cribbs' best year as a receiver was 2011 when he caught 41 balls for 518 yards.  On the Browns never like to play Cribbs as a receiver, perhaps because they wanted to keep him fresh for special teams duty, where he was All-Pro.  When they did use him, they tended to send him on sideline patterns, even though his physical attributes are better suited for the slot.  In addition, Ben Watson accounted for 500 receiving yards last year, and he was let go. For that reason, many of us expected that the Browns would heavily pursue a big name wide receiver, but this did not happen.  Was this a ghastly mistake?  Perhaps not.  If you really look at the Browns roster, and forgetting about "jinxes" and evil magic, they may not be as thin as you might have thought. 


This year, they really do have at least one guy with great potential in Josh Gordon, who came on at the end of the year and hauled in 50 passes for 805 yards.  If he can continue to deal with his off the field issues (namely, an affinity for smoking pot) that got him suspended from the NCAA two years ago, the Browns may have a number one wide receiver.  

Josh Gordon blew past a few defensive backs last year.  Photo credit:  Matt Sullivan, Getty Images, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1373801-josh-gordon-updated-fantasy-outlook-analysis-for-browns-wr

On the other side, most depth charts list the inimitable Greg Little as first string.  Little had something like the 68th highest receiving yards in the NFL in 2012.  His yardage total was actually a little lower in 2012 than in 2011, and for his career he is averaging about 40 yards per game.  He improved a little as the season went on, but was among league leaders in dropped passes in 2011 and didn't do much better in 2012.  He also specializes in unsportsmanlike conduct penalties for excessive celebrations, which is hard to believe considering how little cause he has to celebrate.  
     In the NFL, it is rare for a player to become a consistent 1000 yard receiver if he has not established himself by his third year.  Thus, although many fans think Little is an emerging star, the Village Elliot  thinks that time might be running out, and if he does not break through this year, he may be on his way out. 

    The Browns may have two other alternative candidates for the job.  Jordan Norwood was actually among the best Browns receivers early last year, but went out with an ACL tear.  He had been adjusting well to life as a slot receiver.  If he is back physically, he could be a starter and could be a competent short to intermediate range receiver.  

Jordan Norwood had some good games early last year before getting hurt.  

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/08/why_wouldnt_the_cleveland_brow.html



In addition, Travis Benjamin, an undersized kid with blazing speed, started to make a few big catches last year.  He is expected to replace Josh Cribbs as the return specialist but may see extensive action as a receiver also.  The Browns used Benjamin as a split end most of the time, but he can also play the slot, and many of us fans felt he was perhaps best suited for the slot because of his elusiveness and potential for yards after the catch.  Finally, Josh Cooper was signed as a rookie free agent  last year, and will probably back up the slot position.  

   Thus, one could imagine the Browns starting the season with Cooper as one wideout.   Greg Little is probably the consensus favorite to start alongside Cooper, but the Village Elliot thinks that he may have to fight for playing time. A platoon of Jordan Norwood and Travis Benjamin may be a better answer if Little doesn't appear headed for a breakout year.  Perhaps Cooper, Norwood and Benjamin might appear together  when they play 3 wide receiver sets.    If the Browns add another quality receiver either via free agency or the draft, that would help the depth issue, but it may not be possible to add a 1000 yard guy at this point.  
    Moreover, the Browns may play a fullback and one or even two tight ends frequently in 2013, as they seek to establish a run-first offense featuring Trent Richardson.   If so, it may be more important to get help at the fullback position, not to mention offensive guard, both of which were weaknesses in 2012.  The Browns have a tight end with pass catching skill in Jordan Cameron, and they signed two free agents with a reputation for being good blockers in Kellen Davis, as well and Gary Barnidge.  Thus operating out of a two tight end set is a realistic possibility.  This would not necessarily make the football world forget Gronkowski and Hernandez, but halfback over right tackle might gain a few yards. 
    
    So perhaps the Kiddie Korps receivers are good enough to for the Browns to win with, even if they don't add a stud receiver in the NFL draft.  Or at least there may be other needs that are more pressing than wide receiver.  Currently, the greatest need may be at fullback, where Owen Marecic is the current incumbent, despite lack of enthusiasm about  his blocking.  Also, the Browns will probably try to bring in some competition on the offensive line, particularly for offensive guards Jason Pinkston and Shaun Lauvao.  And the defensive backfield is still trying to recruit a cornerback or two.  

Where are the Browns blockers on this play?  So badly beaten, they are not even in the picture.  It might be that the Browns will seek to fix this first, rather than going after a big name wide receiver.    Photo credit: 

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/scWTRTP3LoV/Cleveland+Browns+v+Detroit+Lions/ypG-nUFCWjq/Brandon+Weeden

    The bottom line is that while the Browns could use some help in the receiving corps, it may be in better shape than one might think.  Travis Benjamin and Justin Norwood lead the candidates to start alongside Josh Cooper.  It may not be Gary Collins and Paul Warfield, but they should be able to line up with guys who at least belong in the NFL, which has not the case in recent years. 

The 2013 Cleveland Browns Offense

    How good are the Browns on offense?    Browns fans are intensely loyal and don’t want to see any of the current players go.  Historically, the Browns and their fans have regarded their team as loaded with young talent and moving in a positive direction.  Then the season starts and they wind up going 4-12. 
    Last year's draft was a case in point.  The Browns had stockpiled draft picks, and went in with 13 picks (and later added Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft, costing them a number two pick in 2013), including two number ones, two number twos, a number three and three number fours.  Normally teams get about four starters a year from the draft.  The Browns had twice as many picks, but came away with only four starters.

       They came away with some successes.  Mitchell Schwartz played at a high level at right tackle, and Gordon turned out to be the third best rookie wideout in the league.   They wound up with the third best rookie running back.  The Browns traded the number four overall pick plus three more draft picks to take Trent Richardson, who is a pretty good player able to run, block and catch the ball.  The Browns were supposed to have a run-first, West Coast Offense last year, but finished 24th in the run, which is pathetic considering the huge investment that they made in Richardson.  Maybe he'll get better if he overcomes some of the injuries he had in 2012.  

      In Brandon Weeden, the Browns got a quarterback who will be 30 in 2013.  Weeden has a big arm but not that many trustworthy guys to throw the ball to, and below average pass protection.  He was the fifth best rookie quarterback in the draft behind RG3, Luck, Tannehill  and Wilson, and overall he was the 29th best quarterback in the NFL rankings.  He'll probably cut down on his intercerptions in 2013, and if he has some other receivers he should improve. 

     Josh Gordon, who was suspended for failing drug tests in college had a very good year a wide receiver.  If his pot smoking is truly behind him, he may have a good career in the NFL.

     That's it for the starters.  They also wound up with some decent prospects, including Travis Benjamin who is a good kick returner who can also be used as an extra wide receiver.  Coach Rob Chudzinski  and OC Norv Turner may switch him to the slot in 2013.  But overall, the 2012 draft was a disaster, and the Browns just did not add much to a bad team.

       Joe Thomas, Pro Bowler at left tackle and Alex Mack at center are the only other Browns starters on offense who are secure for 2013.  

       The Browns will probably let tight end Ben Watson go.  At age 32, he is still a good pass catcher.  The Browns still have young Jordan Cameron, who doesn't catch many passes and also doesn't block well. The Browns liked him because he's tall and looks good on paper.

       Behind Josh Gordon, the Browns have Greg Little, who has led the NFL in dropped passes over the past two years and averaged about 40 yards per game in receiving yards.  Is he a bright young talent?  I don't think so. Slot receiver options include Jordon Norwood, who was on the IR last year, and Josh Cooper, picked up as an undrafted free agent after playing with Weeden at Oklahoma State.  Maybe Travis Benjamin might wind up in the slot.  The Browns have wanted to use their speed guys on the outside, but the shorter quicker receivers are probably best suited for the slot.  It's not certain whether the Browns will keep Cribbs, however.  Shurmur seemed content to let him return kicks and evidently didn't like him as a wide receiver.  Keep in mind, however, that the Browns were supposed to have a West Coast Offense which does not feature a slot receiver, and instead has a fullback.

      At guard, neither Jason Pinkston on the left side nor Shawn Lauvao on the right have been very impressive as the Browns gave up a higher than average number of sacks, mostly from the two guards, and they didn’t help the running game much either.  

      Both Chudzinski as well as offensive coordinator Norv Turner have used a true fullback in their offenses in Carolina and San Diego, respectively.  But current incumbent  Owen Marecic didn't block well and hasn't caught as many passes as they had hoped for.  Brad Smelley didn't do much better but did catch a pass for 3 yards last year.  Maybe that's considered promising for the Browns.

       Historically, the Browns have regarded themselves as being loaded with talent and moving in the right direction.  The Village Elliot thinks that on offense they have only four guys that are entrenched at their psoitions (Thomas, Schwartz, Mack and Gordon), or five if you count Weeden.  Hence they are looking for help at tight end, fullback, wide receiver 2, slot receiver, left guard and right guard.  

     Is this a young team on the rise?  Not based on what they did in 2012, with their pathetic drafting.  In 2013, remember that the Browns will have only six picks, since they already gave up their number two pick for Josh Gordon.    However, the Browns have a lot of money under the salary cap, and my guess is that Mr. Haslam will spend some serious bucks to improve the team. They really could add half a dozen quality players via free agency. 

  

     One of the characteristics of a bad team, however, is that they often fixate on upgrading the quarterback position.  It wouldn't shock me if the Browns acquire another quarterback and neglect some of their other needs.