Why a QB Absolutely Has to Be Chosen First in the 2018 NFL Draft

Dude, if you are an NFL GM, you are so not going to draft anyone but a quarterback in at least the first three positions this year.  Why?  Well, let's take you through the proof that today's quarterbacks are unlike anyone we have ever seen before.  Let's first take a look at Aaron Rodgers in college, courtesy of the 2005 College All-Star festivities.  This is a simple drill, throw the ball as far as you can and see where it lands on the turf.  Now watch Aaron heave the rock for an amazing 64 yards, and then 70 yards (but off target).  

At around 3:30, a 22 year old Aaron Rodgers, at the same age as Rosen and Allen, heaves the ball 70 yards.


Ok, got it.  Impressed?  Good.

Well, now let's watch Josh Rosen throw from his own 15 yard line and hit a receiver chest high at about the 4 yard line.  That's a bit more than 80 yards, and it the receiver hadn't caught it, probably it would travel a few more yards before hitting the turf. The press couldn't quite believe it, and in fact they reported this throw as a 60 or 65 yard pass.  But check out the yard markers.  Josh is clearly behind his 15.  The receiver is clearly beyond the opposite 5 yard line. This ball traveled 80 yards in the air, not one inch less, and if the receiver had let it go it would have gone several yards further.  

    This is real. I'm not aware of John Elway or Dan Marino doing something like this (show me the tape, you geezers, before swearing that some old timer could do it). The only conclusion is that this kid can throw a football at least 10 to 15 yards farther than Aaron Rodgers at the same age.  

Go to 1:25 or so...Rosen is definitely throwing from behind his 15 yard line and hits his man beyond the opposite 5 yard line.  Do the math, that's 80 yards.  It's so shocking that the throw is reported in the press as 65 yards because they can't believe he really did that. 

Now, let me remind you that Josh Rosen is thought to have the third best arm in the draft behind Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Sam Darnold didn't throw at the Combine, and in my mind has to slide to fourth best, but he is up there too.  

     This is borne out by velocity measurements at the Combine.  Unfortunately, there is some confusion between average and peak velocity,  as I pointed out in a previous blog, and in 2018 so far only the slower numbers have been reported.  But with that understanding, Josh Allen's peak velocity is best estimated at 66 mph (62 mph average), which is 6 mph faster than the previous high ever recorded (Logan Thomas). The College All-Star game also reports measuring Josh Allen at 66 mph.  Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are also significantly above the previous record.      

   The inescapable conclusion is that these kids throw harder than anyone else has ever thrown before.  Better than Aaron Rodgers for sure.  Has anybody got film of Elway throwing 80 or 90 yards?
    To be sure, a strong arm isn't everything, and many times the guys with the strongest arms don't make it. So check the scouting reports and find out if they have bad decision making or accuracy issues.  Supposedly, the latter problem will hold Josh Allen back.  However, if you check into it, you find out that Josh Allen's best receiver is a converted quarterback who also plays guard on the basketball team. That's his best guy.  I keep on asking for someone to produce game film on Allen showing inaccuracy and no one has sent me any yet.  Anyway, if you don't like Allen, there's Mayfield and Allen who did put up good numbers in college.  Sam Darnold's velocity is unproven, but the eyeball test says he is comparable to Rosen. 

   Now, knowing that you have arms in the draft that are the best in history, better than John Elway, tell me again how you're going to justify taking a running back instead of a quarterback.  How can you have four guys with a better arm than Elway, and you're not going to draft the guy you think is best.  Because what?  You want a running back or a safety?

      That is insane!  There's a reason why quarterbacks get paid twice as much as running backs.  It's very hard to imagine that an NFL GM is going to turn down the opportunity to draft the most talented quarterbacks of all time in order to draft a very good position player such as Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb or Minkah Fitzpatrick.  I think all of them are going to the Pro Bowl soon.  But some of these qbs are headed to the Hall of Fame, and probably more than one.  These guys are going to change the face of the NFL forever.  You cannot pass that up.  

Why Josh Allen's Low Completion Percentage Doesn't Matter

Introducing the First Overall Pick of the 2018 NFL Draft

   Josh Allen put up some very vanilla numbers last year for the Wyoming Cowboys.  In particular, his completion percentage is under 60%.  Most of the time, NFL teams should steer clear of a guy with a low completion percentage.  I don't think that is the case for Allen, however.  Here are a few reasons why:

1. Coach Craig Bohl runs a Pro-Style offense at Wyoming rather than the Spread.  Bohl's quarterbacks will never put up the numbers that the up-tempo Spread guys put up simply because they have fewer plays and fewer pass attempts.  Bohl's teams won with both Carson Wentz and Josh Allen, but the stats for both were unimpressive.  Bohl likes to win.  He doesn't care about generating stats for the quarterback.  So sue the guy.  But don't blame the quarterback.

2.  Bohl uses very few dump passes to the halfback. In 2017, halfbacks Overstreet and Woods had a total of 7 passes for the SEASON.  Those passes usually have a very high completion percentage, like 70-80%, and Wyoming just didn't use them very often.  

3.  The 2016 Wyoming Cowboys graduated the team's top 2 wide receivers, tight end and running back, losing a total of 4800 yards.  That is an unbelievable total, 86% of the offense, and it was simply not possible to make it all up.   In particular, wideout Tanner Gentry had 1326 receiving yards and running back Brian Hill  rushed for an impressive 1860 yards. The  players who remained were much less accomplished, including wide receivers C. J Johnson (304 yards) and Austin Conway (103 yards), plus running back Nico Evans, who had a grand total of 33 rushing yards.  That's it.  In 2017, Conway led the team with 549 receiving yards, and no running back gained as many as 500 yards.  Conway is an interesting guy, a converted quarterback who also plays for the basketball team.  He also rushed 15 times for 70 yards. That shows that they like him to have the ball in his hands, but perhaps it also shows that the team felt they needed another way to get him the ball besides through the air. If your best guy is a converted quarterback with just a year of experience as a receiver, you're not going to have a flying circus offense. To make a long story short, the 2017 Wyoming team was unusually weak on offense with the exception of the quarterback position.  They don't catch very well.

4.  Watch some film!!   I have gone back and watched some games front to back, not nearly everything but at least a few.  In my opinion, Lazy sportswriters didn't really watch Wyoming Cowboys games. They just saw the low completion percentage and say he's inaccurate.  It's not true.  If you watch his games, you see him place the ball where it's supposed to be.  But his pocket breaks down frequently and he throws out of bounds to avoid the sack.   There are some Youtube videos that attempt to show negative Allen performances, but even they actually indicate the opposite.  I watched him throw a few incompletions that were dropped by inexperienced receivers, or in which the receiver obviously ran the wrong route. One play comes to mind in which he was criticized for throwing the ball low to an open receiver.  That's true. But to me he was placing it where only the offensive player had a chance to catch it and the defender had no chance to make the interception.  That's the correct throw.  If you complete a pass and then get the receiver knocked out, that's not going to work in the long run.  Then there are other passes where he flat out overthrows somebody or gets deked by the cornerback. But overall, I believe there is a very high percentage of throws that are on target.   

5. On rare occasion, highly ranked NFL quarterbacks put up ho-hum stats in college.  Carson Wentz comes to mind, playing in Craig Bohl's offense and winning a championship with unimpressive stats.   Matthew Stafford was first overall,  though like Allen, he completed fewer than 60% of his passes.  Dan Marino threw 23 INTs his senior year versus 17 TDs.  Stats are great, but you have to study deeper to figure out what they really mean.

To my amateur's eye, I see an accurate passer in Mr. Allen. More concerning is that there are a lot of one-look and-then-run plays. He actually ran a lot in 2016, but calmed down a bit in 2017.  There also a few times when he locked on to a favorite receiver waiting for him to get open rather than looking for the next progression. In those areas, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Josh Rosen are probably ahead of him.