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Fernando Mendoza is a College Superstar, but does he have to be the Number One overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft? The Cleveland Browns, the most quarterback fixated team in the NFL, may be considering whether they should move up in the draft in order to select Mendoza, despite still have $130 million left to pay Deshaun Watson, and having used 11 draft picks on quarterbacks depleted roster after donating six draft picks to the Houston Texans and incurring a $230 million dollar due bill for Deshaun Watson. If the Browns trade their two first round draft picks in the 2026 draft, plus a few more high round picks in 2027, they could probably move up to first overall. Would it be worth it?
Mendoza will surely get his shot to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. That is not in question. However, there are 32 starters in the NFL, and not all of them were first overall picks. So how many of the boxes does Mendoza check off?
First, the good: we like the physical attributes. 6'5" 225 lbs is hard to argue with. He also has good speed and running ability though not exactly at the level of former Hoosier Antwaan Randle El. We like that he led the known world in completion percentage with 73.0%. We love the fact that he had a very low interception rate (only 6). But how much of this is team and how much of this is Fernando? The major mistake sportswriters make is confusing quarterback performance with team performance.
Indiana has been consistently dominant in college football this season with no real weaknesses. Indiana was great through the air. But, wait a minute, they were super-great on the ground, leading the Big 10 in rushing yards with 218.0 per game. Mendoza averaged 223.3 passing yards per game, good for eighth best in the Big 10. QBs with more yards per game include Jayden Maiava 285.5 (USC), Athan Kaliakmanis, 260.3 (Rutgers), Julian Sayin, 257.9 (Ohio State), Malik Washington, 246.9 (Maryland), Dante Moore, 237.7 (Oregon), Demond Williams Jr., 235.8 (Washington), Luke Altmeyer, 231.3 (Illinois). Fernando is 22 years old and has 35 games to his credit. Most of his rivals are younger and not ready to enter the draft yet. So, you want the number 8 QB in the Big 10 from the top rushing team, and you think he is the best prospect for the long term? That doesn't sound quite right, does it? Indiana had two second-team All-Big 10 wideouts, and a third team All-Big 10 tight end, plus a sterling defense to get the ball back in the hands of the offense quickly.
Take a look at the Mendoza highlight film and tell me if you see him make an NFL style progression. His first choice is almost always open, so Fernando can afford to wait behind a stud offensive line until his receiver can get open and then throw him the ball. This is perfectly fine in College ball, but not the way they play in the NFL. This is the same problem that many of us had with Shedeur Sanders last year. We want to see a QB with "head on a swivel" making his progressions; being able to look left and throw to fool the defense; moving up in the pocket under pressure instead of running backwards and other Master Class tricks. It sounds easy, but it takes time and many many practice and game repetitions to master the process. If you have not heard Tom Brady talk about the rookie transition process, he can tell it way better than I can:
Tom Brady on Rookie QB Development
If Mendoza gets drafted by a good team and can be the number two or number three quarterback for at least one season, he has an excellent chance to succeed in the NFL. However, if he is drafted by a team like Cleveland, where they play rookies very early in the season and expect one man to transform the offense, he will likely fail. Look for Sam Bradford 2.0.
So, yes I would draft Mendoza in Round 1, but it is far from obvious that he should be first overall. I might rather have an edge rusher or an offensive tackle or even a running back like Jeremiyah Love, who I think is an outstanding talent, comparable to Leroy Kelly or Greg Pruitt. There are other QBs that do not have the supporting cast the Indiana has, and thus maybe cannot produce the same QB stats, that might have similar talent at the position. You know who they are. Ty Simpson and Trinidad Chambliss lack ideal size but might be better passers than Mendoza. Nobody thinks they should be at the top of Round 1. Let's blame Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier for getting their Coach fired (rather than blame the Coach for inadequate offense), and so these guys are Day 2 candidates. Carson Beck, okay, threw too many interceptions, but if his Miami team pulls off the upset against Indiana, he might propel himself into Round 1. Is it silly to base a draft on one game? You bet. Is the NFL Draft silly for QBs? Yes.
But back to Mendoza. Unfortunately, you don't get to draft the entire Indiana team with just one draft pick. You just get one player from that team with one pick, and I do not believe that one player will transform a bad team into a good team. Just pray for him not to wind up with the Jets or the Browns.
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