Do you want to know how to best help your quarterback? The average fan will not like this article, because the answer is not investing in speedy wide receivers like everyone thinks. The team spends top dollar for the likes of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr and Amari Cooper. However, If you believe in Statmeister Elliot, you should invest more in the offensive line and running backs. There is an amazing correlation between the running game and the performance of the passing game.
Check out Figure 1 below. The x-axis show rushing yards and the x-axis is the passer rating for each team for the 2024 season. Though there is significant spread in the data, the correlation is unmistakeable. Those teams with top rushing yards tend to have quarterbacks that perform well.
It couldn't be more clear. Teams that have lousy running games have qbs with passer ratings in the 80s. The teams at the top of the league in rushing yards also have quarterback ratings in the range of 100 or above.
Figure 1. NFL Team Passer Rating versus Team Rushing Yards, 2025. Stats from Pro Football Reference.
Note some of the statistical outliers from Figure 1. The Bengals and Joe Burrow posted a high passer rating despite a poor ground game. The Browns were just terrible. They were actually rated about the same when Jameis Winston and Deshaun played, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappy dragging down the averages further with some spectacularly bad games.
The Colts were really bad with their generational talent, Anthony Richardson, and the Ravens had the best running game AND the highest rated passer in Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless they didn't win the Super Bowl, possibly because defense wins Championships. That's why you draft your top two guys for the defense. Remember that, Browns fans. We'll see if Jacksonville wins the Super Bowl with the speedy wide receiver we wanted. I kind of doubt whether that plan will work. Remember, the Browns own Jacksonville's number one pick next year and it could be a goodie.
A lousy running game means your quarterback is going to post lousy numbers, unless you have Joe Burrow on your team (please note: the Browns do not have Joe Burrow on their team).
So what does Coach Kevin Stefanski want to do? Well, he likes cold weather, run-first football, run-pass-option (we used to call it play action), screen passes and multiple tight end sets. He likes cross training offensive linemen to play fullback. It's a ball control offense that wears down the defense. As a result the running game usually got stronger in the second half and the Browns beat people up at the end of the game.
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