Browns' QB Room is a Kluge

 

Browns quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco and Shedeur Sanders. Would another NFL team actually trade for one of these quarterbacks? 

The Browns have four quarterbacks, with three roster spots available.  Hence the roster will be decided by competition in training camp and to a lesser extent how they perform in the preseason. Of course, pre-season is against vanilla defenses, so you really should not be able to win a job in the preseason (hello Deshone Kizer), but you can for sure lose your job if you demonstrate that you cannot perform.  

So, to recapitulate, the Browns fired everyone except the immortal Deshaun Watson, who they want to wind up on the Injured Reserve and possibly cash in some insurance money. Joe Flacco was the team hero in 2023, and he had to be traded because he was too good and might make Deshaun look bad. Since Deshaun is out of the picture for 2025, they rehired Joe. He has $3.0 million guaranteed.  Kenny Pickett has $2.6 million guaranteed money. Pickett cost them backup QB Dorian Thompson Robinson (drafted in Round 5 in 2023) and a fifth round pick.  Then they drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders cost them a Round 5 and Round 6 pick . 

Okay adding it up, that's five draft picks used to obtain three quarterbacks, only two of whom will be kept after roster cutdown.  There's a chance, however, that if the Browns cut Gabriel, he could be signed to the Practice Squad because it is not certain that 31 teams will value him anywhere near where the Browns did on draft day.

On the flip side, we all know how good Flacco was in 2023, and Pickett was a Steeler first round draft pick who went 15-10 in 25 starts for the Steelers, who have been a great defensive team, but a lousy offensive team.  

In Cleveland, the QB's job will be to hand the ball off to a running back 60% of the time, throw passes to tight ends and running backs and once in a while connect with a wideout. The Mad Bomber offense of 2024, created to pacify Deshaun, is totally out.  

Flacco and Pickett can both carry out the requirements for the run-heavy Stefanski offense.  Now, if you decide you like both rookies and Flacco and want to trade Pickett, could you? Would another team want to invest in a QB with only one year remaining on his deal?  Trading him at roster cutdown month might be tough. Hence he most likely makes the team backing up Flacco. 

As for the rookies, Shedeur Sanders had a terrible offensive line but still found his secondary and tertiary targets, so we like that, but don't see him as better than Comeback Player of the Year or first round draft pick Pickett.  

Now the real head scratcher is Dillon Gabriel as early as Round 3.  He appears to have high intelligence, high motivation and can run the dink and dunk for Stefanski.  So he is not altogether a lost cause.  But of the factors that are important for a quarterback, the tangible ones, he misses on several:

1. He is older than the average rookie, age 24, so his ceiling might be lower. 21-22 is considered optimum.

2. He is shorter than most (not all) qbs at 5 foot 11. 

3.  He is smaller than most (not all) qbs at 205 pounds. 

4. His arm strength is judged to be so so. NFL Draft Buzz ranks Shedeur first and Gabriel eighth. 

5. His hand size is smaller than average 9 1/4"

6. He is slow. He did not run at the Combine, and his 40 time is variously reported to be in the 4.8s or 4.9s. 

It would have made sense had the Browns selected Shedeur in the third round and Gabriel in Round 5. As it is, they simply over-invested in quarterbacks yet again. 

Would anyone trade anything of value for Gabriel?  That is doubtful.  

We'll see if Gabriel can get us to change our minds.  

The Best Help for Your Quarterback is a Running Game

 

Do you want to know how to best help your quarterback? The average fan will not like this article, because the answer is not investing in speedy wide receivers like everyone thinks. The team spends top dollar for the likes of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr and Amari Cooper. However, If you believe in Statmeister Elliot, you should invest more in the offensive line and running backs.  There is an amazing correlation between the running game and the performance of the passing game.  

Check out Figure 1 below.  The x-axis show rushing yards and the x-axis is the passer rating for each team for the 2024 season. Though there is significant spread in the data, the correlation is unmistakeable.  Those teams with top rushing yards tend to have quarterbacks that perform well. 

It couldn't be more clear. Teams that have lousy running games have qbs with passer ratings in the 80s.  The teams at the top of the league in rushing yards also have quarterback ratings in the range of 100 or above.  

  

Figure 1.  NFL Team Passer Rating versus Team Rushing Yards, 2025. Stats from Pro Football Reference. 

Note some of the statistical outliers from Figure 1. The Bengals and Joe Burrow posted a high passer rating despite a poor ground game.  The Browns were just terrible. They were actually rated about the same when Jameis Winston and Deshaun played, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappy dragging down the averages further with some spectacularly bad games. 

The Colts were really bad with their generational talent, Anthony Richardson, and the Ravens had the best running game AND the highest rated passer in Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless they didn't win the Super Bowl, possibly because defense wins Championships. That's why you draft your top two guys for the defense. Remember that, Browns fans. We'll see if Jacksonville wins the Super Bowl with the speedy wide receiver we wanted.  I kind of doubt whether that plan will work. Remember, the Browns own Jacksonville's number one pick next year and it could be a goodie.  

A lousy running game means your quarterback is going to post lousy numbers, unless you have Joe Burrow on your team (please note: the Browns do not have Joe Burrow on their team). 

So what does Coach Kevin Stefanski want to do?  Well, he likes cold weather, run-first football, run-pass-option (we used to call it play action), screen passes and multiple tight end sets.  He likes cross training offensive linemen to play fullback.  It's a ball control offense that wears down the defense. As a result the running game usually got stronger in the second half and the Browns beat people up at the end of the game. 

Did Jerome Ford Receive a Pay Raise, or a Pay Cut?

It's been widely reported that Jerome Ford has accepted a pay cut to remain with the Cleveland Browns. Reports claim that Ford was due to receive $3.486 million in 2025 but instead accepted $1.75 million.  Overthecap.com lists a signing bonus of $80,537, which according to my pocket calculator makes his 2025 cap number $1.83 million.  Get it right, folks. 

Ford was a fifth round draft pick in the fourth year of a four year, $3,982,148 deal. Overthecap says that he has been paid $322,148 in bonus money, plus three years of salary amounting to $2,560,000, leaving a total of $1,100,000 remaining for year four of his rookie contract. 

  

That was his 2025 salary, not $3.486 million. Thus the new number is $730,000 HIGHER than what he was scheduled to get, not lower. Probably the pay raise was meant to reassure him that he is not being cast aside in favor of glamor rookies Quinshon Judkins from Ohio State, and SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson from Tennessee, and to reward him for playing way beyond expectations for a fifth round pick.  

The most stupid narrative of this off-season is that Jerome was sitting on $3.486 million dollars somehow, and he decides to take a voluntary pay cut because he was afraid of becoming a free agent, and so he he steals Nick Chubb's spot on the roster. Oh puh-lease!

If Jerome is cut from the Cleveland Browns he will be richly rewarded. HE WILL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED BY 32 NFL TEAMS.  Why would Jerome want to take a pay cut to be the second or third string running back in Cleveland? If he gets cut by Cleveland, he will be immediately picked up by another team   "Go ahead, release me. Make me rich!"

So what is the source of the $3.486 million that Ford supposedly was going to get in 2025?  Just as a guess, it might be his agent's fantasy.  Ford might well be worth that much as a free agent, but the Browns are so not going to cut him. A trade is not out of the question on the grounds that the Browns actually have depth; however the Ravens are always four and five deep at the position and it has not hurt them a bit. 

No, something probably got garbled here, as is often the case in Cleveland. All the signs point to Jerome Ford being a valued member of the team, and if Nick Chubb is not re-signed it is because they do not trust his knee, not because of Ford or his contract.