Ex-Browns Quarterbacks Far Outperform Deshaun Watson

 

Never fear Browns fans, just remember  the old maxim, "Quarterback Greed wins Championships," and rest assured that the Browns are in good hands with the greediest ownership and front office in football. Oh wait, that's not how the old saying goes. It's actually DEFENSE wins championships.  The rest of the NFL, with the possible exception of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings, and a few others, have forgotten that. 

I about want to barf when I read stories, often by bloggers like myself, about how the Browns ought to blow another first round draft pick--after not having one for three years due to the disastrous Watson trade--on a bright, shining quarterback next year so we can ruin another one. 

Look, the problem is the BROWNS ARE OVERINVESTING IN QUARTERBACKS AND NEED TO STOP.  They are gorging themselves on quarterbacks they cannot afford and throwing away quarterbacks who are good enough to win, falsely believing that the quarterback is some kind of magical Messiah. Well, he is not. 

The Browns got rid of Baker Mayfield because he was not a franchise quarterback  Well, franchise or not, he is currently fourth in the NFL in yards with 984, ahead of guys like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and he is second in the NFL with 8 TD passes (behind Sam Darnold with 11).  You thought Sam Darnold sucked because he could not succeed for the New York Jets or Carolina Panthers.  MAYBE THE TEAM HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT?  Anyway, do we still think Deshaun Watson is a franchise quarterback that made so much of a positive difference for Cleveland? How? 

Meanwhile, last year's backup, Joe Flacco, came off the bench and led the Indianapolis Colts to a big win, beating the Steelers with two TD passes.  Well, fancy that. 

Jacoby Brissett, the 2022 Browns' best quarterback on the roster, is starting for the Patriots who have a bad roster. You can say he stinks, based on his stats, but he can play on a good team.  

Tyler Huntley had a tryout with the Browns this spring but got cut. He will be the emergency starter over in Miami due to injuries to their two top guys (that's why you need three qbs in this league, Coach McDaniel, particularly when your top guy has a concussion history. I may be an amateur, but I am so right about that).  

The problem with the Browns is that they gave away six draft picks including three number ones--three years worth of picks, basically--for one quarterback who didn't want to play football.  Forget about his, uh, romantic adventures. He took a year off from football because his team did not let him be the Assistant General Manager, basically.  You can't have a guy like that in the locker room. And they paid him an entire team's worth of salary. $230 million guaranteed is equivalent to an entire season's payroll.  They are trying to defer it and spread it out, but they cannot recover from it.  

Their only hope is to try to void the contract, if Deshaun is found in breach of the clauses that require him to have no further blemishes on his record.  He is currently being sued by yet another woman.  If he loses, perhaps the Browns can pull the plug on this hideous quarterback. However, the rest of the team is still depleted of talent.

In any case, it is time to give it a rest.  No more overinvesting in quarterbacks.  There is no need to fire Jameis Winston, who is a capable quarterback.  Plus the Browns need to find out what they have in Dorian Thompson-Robinson who has looked fine in small sample sizes.  They should not just give up on the kid and cut him before developing him.  No, no, no! That's part of the disease, cutting the quarterback for no reason.  There are other positions besides quarterback, and if they don't develop the rest of the team, they will be like the Jets or Panthers and never know if they have a quarterback who can play.  It's like a drug, throwing away quarterback after quarterback after quarterback, and signing free agent after free agent and drafting first round pick after first round pick, looking for the quick fix while neglecting the rest of the team. Stop it. It's a waste of resources. Even if you have the perfect quarterback, you will never know it if you put him on a team with a punk roster.  

I would make it an internal rule that there should be three quarterbacks on the roster every year, and the team never replaces more than one per year.  Stability at the position is a good thing.  

Cincinnati Reds have no choice but to deal Nick Castellanos

Every Reds fan loves Nick Castellanos, but he is only under contract for this season, and the Reds will be left with nothing if they elect to not trade him this season.  Castellanos is a hard-nosed, old-school ballplayer and he is playing out of his mind this year, currently hitting .340 with 16 home runs and 53 runs batted in. Plus he hustles and gets the rest of the team fired up. Dare I say he has a bit of Pete Rose in him?  What's there to not like? 

Well, the thing to not like is the fact that the Reds cannot afford to sign players like Trevor Bauer and Nick Castellanos, and it does not make sense to simply gift wrap them for the Dodgers and the Yankees.  Get something for them! 

There is this sick fan logic that says that the Reds are two games over .500, so there is a 1% chance that the Reds will win it all this season.  Plus, Nick seems to be happy in Cincinnati, so perhaps he will re-sign at a price the Reds can afford, at about 10 cents on the dollar...

No, no, no.  This is not Fantasy Island, this is reality.  Castellanos is not leading a charge to the World Series and is not re-signing with the Reds. Instead, he will sign a huge contract with the Boston Red Sox or someone next off-season, and the Reds will have nothing, and the fans will be totally shocked and outraged.  Well, let's break the cycle.

The Reds do not have to give Castellanos away.  They can do what the Cleveland Indians do in this familiar situation. They do not just trade their players for minor leaguers, but instead deal for a combination of Major League players who can help now, plus prospects who can help in a year or too. So yes, they take a hit, but not a fatal one, and they can stay in the race.  Get VALUE.  Last season, they traded Francisco Lindor and they got back two shortstops. Amed Rosario is probably playing better than Lindor, and he can play outfield when  Andrés Giménez is ready.  They also got some deep prospects in the minor leagues.  

The Reds have a fundamental problem that somehow they signed two very high priced third basemen in Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez.  They have to face the awful fact that Moustakas cannot play second base and Suarez cannot play shortstop. Nor can they move one guy to first base because Joey Votto has a no-trade clause.  They also signed Shogo Akiyama, hoping he would learn to hit at age 33.  

They need to unload some of these contracts.  So here is what I propose. 

Reds trade:  Nick Castellanos,  Mike Moustakas or Eugenio Suarez, and Shogo Akiyama. This package provides some major offense to a pennant contender and offloads some major payroll. Akiyama is in no way better than Aristides Aquino.  It is preposterous to play a 33 year old ahead of a player who has 25 home runs in 286 big league at-bats.  The front office is just playing Akiyama to justify a stupid contract, and they need to rectify their mistake and move on.

Reds get:  A major league outfielder or perhaps a shortstop with one year remaining on his contract, two significant prospects, and a bullpen pitcher.  This does not knock them out of the race. They can only play one third baseman at a time.  They have other outfielders, though not like Castellanos, obviously.  But bullpen pitchers are always needed.  This offseason, the Reds will have reduced their payroll by like $30 million dollars and can sign a real ballplayer to replace Castellanos.  

2018 O-Line Stats Cleveland Browns

 

2019 BRowns Stats, misc

Player	Position	2019 cap charge
Damarious Randall	S	$9,069,000
Greg Robinson	T	$6,400,000
Drew Stanton	QB	$3,250,000
Rashard Higgins	WR	$2,025,000
Joe Schobert	LB	$ 743,489
Eric Murray	FS	$ 741,826
Juston Burris	WR	$720,000
Justin McCray	G	$645,000

*multiyear contracts can be discounted in Year 1.

*multiyear contracts can be discounted in Year 1.

Player	Position	2019 cap charge
Damarious	Randall	$9,069,000
Eve	Jackson	94

Browns Pro Football Focus

Pythagorean Win Percentage Slightly Favors Patriots in the Super Bowl

The Pythagorean win percentage is calculated based on points versus opponents points.  Game-to-game variation is all over the place but over the course of a season  you might try to find a trend.  It doesn't prove anything, and I wouldn't place a bet because of it, but the Patriots have gotten better as the season has gone on, and the Rams started out truly dominant, but are not quite as one-sided as the season has gone on.  Of course, they are also playing better teams in the playoffs.  

So both teams are pretty good, no doubt, but this simple form of analysis is consistent with the Las Vegas opinion that the Patriots might deserve to be a slight favorite.  

The Patriots have been getting better as the season has gone on. 

The Rams are a very good team, but were more dominant at the beginning of the year, and less so towards the end of the year . 

  

The Rams are a very good team, but were more dominant at the beginning of the year, and less so towards the end of the year .