2018 Mock Draft from the Village Elliot: Elway Moves up to 2nd, Browns move down from 4th, Saquon to the Giants.

  The Village Elliot does not know any more than anyone else. No secret sources or anything like that.  Of course, mock drafts are ridiculous because there are so many things that people can do that every prediction will soon fall apart.  Nevertheless, I have a compulsion to try to predict the future and read the minds of NFL General Managers. With that in mind, I'm still going to take my best shot at predicting some absolutely improbable future events. Thus,   I have the following outlandish scenario to propose for my mock:   I think the Broncos and Bills want to move up, and the Browns and Giants are interested in moving down.  The first four four picks are quarterbacks.

Here's how it goes:
1.  Browns draft Josh Allen.  He has the most talent but lousy stats.  I think that the stats can be overcome. Mainly, he needs to throw to people better than a converted point guard as his top wide receiver and things will improve.
2.  The Broncos move up and draft Josh Rosen.  Denver is okay at qb with Case Keenum, not to mention Pax Lynch and Chad Kelly.  Nevertheless, John Elway is a brilliant but super-aggressive guy.  He sees quarterback talent in this draft and it will drive him crazy unless he trades up to get his guy.   Elway can evaluate the talent better than anyone, but my guess is that Josh Rosen actually grades out a little better than Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. The Giants might be willing to move, because Coach Pat Shumur wants to win now with Eli Manning. He wouldn't mind having a quarterback, but there are some attractive guys later on in the draft, or they can get Elway to recycle youngsters Lynch or Kelly. What Shurmur really wants to do is help Eli by adding some pieces on offense.  So the Giants should be open to be rewarded for moving back. Elway will be willing to overpay, so Denver  blows the 2018 1st/5th overall, plus their 2018 2nd round choice and a 2019 number one, in order to move up to Number 2 overall. Whew!  But if Elway gets his man, it's worth it. 

3.  The Jets are up next, and they go for Baker Mayfield.  Baker is a big of a loose cannon, but what better guy to mentor the youngster than Josh McCown?  
4.    The  Buffalo Bills trade their two number one picks (12th and 19th) plus a number 2 this year and a number 2 next year in order to take Sam Darnold.  That's a steal, because Darnold is a franchise and probably worth four number one picks.  They might have to outbid the Giants, though the Giants are primarily interested in drafting Saquon Barkley to create a more balanced offense.  The Giants wouldn't mind the Bills drafting ahead of them, but they can not know that the Browns won't take Barkley. So I think they make an offer to the Browns also, but the Bills are more willing to overpay.  
5.  The Giants are relieved that the Bills have taken a qb, because now they get a premier running back for Pat Shurmur's revamped offense.   Hello Mr. Barkley, welcome to New York.
6.  Indianapolis drafts Bradley Chubb, the brilliant defensive lineman.  They really didn't want a quarterback anyway, since they are banking on Andrew Luck coming back. 
7.  Tampa Bay solidifies their secondary by drafting Denzel Ward, the shutdown corner from Ohio State
8.  Chicago Bears draft Quenton Nelson,  to take care of Franchise QB (they hope) Mitchell Trubisky. 
9. San Francisco 49ers take Minkah Fitzpatrick.   The draft always seem to deliver top defensive talent to San Francisco in Round 1. 
10. Oakland Raiders select Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia. Jon Gruden needs to fix the Raiders' defense. 
11. Miami Dolphins have to replace Ndamukong Suh, and go with
Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan. 
12.  With the Bill's pick, Cleveland goes for Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame. They need to replace Joe Thomas. This is a no-brainer. 
13. Washington Redskins go with defense, Vita Vea, DT, Washington. 
14. Green Bay Packers  The Packers try to plug a leaky secondary with Derwin James, SS, Florida State. 
15. Arizona Cardinals.  Hey, did everyone forget about Mason Rudolph?  He had four fantastic years with Oklahoma State and is ready to play NOW.  He might make the All-Rookie Team.  Arizona was not able to move up, and  is overjoyed with Rudolph. 
16. Baltimore Ravens address a need for a wide receiver, by selecting Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama. 
17. Los Angeles Chargers select Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama. If you want a great defense, just draft someone from Alabama. 
18. Seattle Seahawks need to replace Richard Sherman, and pick Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa. 
19. Dallas Cowboys pick Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist.
20. Detroit Lions get a pash rusher by selecting Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA. 
21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo) adds to Marvin Lewis' defense with  Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Virginia Tech.  They have to replace often-suspended Vontaze Burfict.
22. Cleveland Browns did not get Saquon Barkley, so they take another stud runner in Derrius Guice, RB, LSU. 
23. Los Angeles Rams Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. They want to protect Jared Goff.  
24. Carolina Panthers get Will Hernandez, G, UTEP, who was a Combine stud.
25. Tennessee Titans  Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama.  
26. Atlanta Falcons bolster their front line with Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. 
27. New Orleans Saints recently learned how to play defense.  Great idea, so they will add Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers select  Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State. 
29. Jacksonville Jaguars find themselves with Lamar Jackson, who slides all the way to 29th overall.  Most teams hate running quarterbacks, but Jacksonville will take him, because they hate Blake Bortles even more than running quarterbacks. 
30. Minnesota Vikings  go with Leighton Vander Esch ILB, a sideline-to-sideline linebacker.
31. New England Patriots draft Shaquem Griffin.  He's gotten plenty of attention for overcoming the handicap of having only one hand, but what is being missed is that he is an incredible player.  He also weighs 229 and runs a 4.3 40 yard dash. People who think he is a day 3 pick are insane. Watch the film and believe your eyes.  He is a first round draft pick.  
32. Philadelphia Eagles need some O-Line help and go with Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. 

    
Well that's a lot to have happen.  Do you think I will get anything right?     

Six Quarterbacks to go Round 1 in the 2018 NFL Draft?

     This is an insane year for quarterbacks.  It's very possible that six or maybe even seven quarterbacks are going to be taken in Round 1.  I thought that the Combine would clarify who the top guy is, but probably the top four guys are still very close to one another.  One of them will likely be taken by the Browns first overall.  I still like Josh Allen, but I could easily be wrong.   I would rank them as follows:

Is Josh Allen the top dog in the 2018 draft?  Maybe. 

1.  Josh Allen.  I still think Allen will be the first overall pick.  His poor numbers at Wyoming are attributable to having a converted point guard and quarterback as his best wide receiver.  When he had a good receiver in 2016 in Tanner Gentry who became a borderline NFL prospect, he hit him for 1300 yards.   But they didn't replace him, and they didn't have running backs to catch high percentage passes either. Plus all winter long I've challenged the folks at Browns Bloggers and Friends group in Facebook, and no one can produce any game film showing Josh Allen's alleged inaccuracy.  No, if he were playing at Oklahoma or USC he would put up big numbers.  There's no such thing as a zero-risk quarterback, but in this case the potential reward is so high that you must accept the risk and draft a quarterback first overall this year.  

2.  Josh Rosen.  Probably the most polished of the group, his arm is close to Allen's.  Watching him launch an accurate bomb 80 yards in the air, it is clear that no one has ever thrown the ball like the quarterback class of 2018. He has size, accuracy and production on his side as well.  There's a legitimate concern about his tendency to put his foot in his mouth at times.   

3. Baker Mayfield.  Two years older than Rosen and a year older than Josh Allen and Sam Darnold, Mayfield is significantly more advanced and could be a Day 1 starter if necessary.  He thinks faster on his feet than the other qbs, and he has plenty of arm strength.  Concerns about his drinking and run-in with the law are real, but not enough to dissuade a team from taking a chance on his obvious on-field talent.  

4.  Sam Darnold.  Sam has an arm comparable to the others, though he does not have the quick release of the other three.  He has more of an elongated delivery, but still he is very strong armed and accurate. He is a year younger than the others, with only two years of college, and he fumbled a lot in college. He'll get better of course. I think that some team will trade up with the Browns  to get him, and qbs could go 1-2-3-4 this year.

5. Mason Rudolph.  A very accurate passer with arm strength probably above Mitchell Trubisky's, who went second overall last year.  He put up huge numbers at Oklahoma State, plus he's bigger than Mitchell, though not as fast.  How can he not be a first round pick?  

6.  Lamar Jackson.  Lamar is an incredible runner and did everything for Louisville the past three years.  His arm is not otherworldly like the top 4, however, and for that reason he might last till the end of Round 1.  Because he gained 1600 yqrds on the ground, there is some thought he should be a receiver or running back.  But, on the other hand, what does DeShaun Watson  do that Lamar cannot?  Lamar is the better runner and has a better arm. He has got to be first round, but because teams are afraid of running qbs due to injury risk, he might be later in Round 1. 

*********************************************************************

Somebody like Mike White of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers may be ignored by the media, but the right NFL team might really like him.   

7.  Somebody else.  It's not crazy to think that yet another quarterback will sneak into the first round.  If you like ball velocity, college stats, size, there are some other guys who seem to meet those requirements.  They are not getting much attention, however, as the media is focused on the top guys.  Mike White, Riley Ferguson, Tanner Lee, Kurt Benkert and others come to mind.  Analysts complain about J. T. Barrett's lack of arm strength, but he threw the ball 60 yards once in a spring practice game contest.  That's plenty strong, but in this year's draft, analysts just yawn.  In any case, some team might very well conclude that one of these guys has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback, and take him in the first round.  Put it this way, I'll be very interested to see if the Patriots decide to draft someone to back up Tom Brady.

Why Tyrod Taylor May not be the Long Term Messiah (guest post by Mark F. Barnes)

(Editors's Note:  Mark F. Barnes was thoughtful enough to compose a breakdown of new Browns QB Tyrod Taylor for Browns Bloggers and Friends discussion group on Facebook.  I've compiled it into a single blog.  This is the kind of stuff you just can't find anywhere else, folks.  Thank you, Mark).

     Bringing in Tyrod Taylor was in part pushed by Hue, but ultimately Dorsey makes the decisions now, but I can see he's attempting to give the HC part of what he wants, but the leash is short and Dorsey is being careful it appears. But for those that think we need to pass on a QB this draft need to really rethink that. This draft has some really good QB talent in it and two very probable, possibly 3, franchise player QBs. I'm an Allen guy and I make no bones about it.  He's six-foot-five, 240 pounds and wielding a howitzer on his right arm.

Now this is not meant to be a blast Tyrod Taylor piece, because it's not, but it is a full breakdown on what to expect, because if you think he's going to come in and light up the AFC North, you better get ready to be disappointed. Is he going to be better than Kizer? Absolutely.

A big ding in Taylors game is his ability to ready and anticipate his receivers. He's been on a team with better talkent than the Browns have so he's starting against a stacked deck. Dorsey signing Landry is a big plus. This guy gets open quickly, makes separation and after he catches the ball he's dangerous, so he makes DBs play him a little soft so he can't get behind them, because if he does. he's gone.

Taylor holds the ball a long time, longer than average.

Here are the NFL’s average throw times in 2017, you lovers of PFF can likely verify this quickly. I use PFR because it's free stats and no nonsense internal rating BS.

Snap to throw=2.65 seconds (Taylor: 3.13, 2nd-highest)

Snap to attempt=2.50 seconds (Taylor: 2.73, 5th-highest)

Snap to sack=3.35 seconds (Taylor: 3.98, 3rd-highest)

Taylor has struggled in the drop back game, registering in the low 60's completion percentage and a 56.4 NFL QB rating. Now don't let that low 60's completion percentage fool you, it's worse off than that, and I will explain later. His 62% +/- is very misleading. His struggles from the pocket are mainly due to his tendency to hold the ball and, ultimately, not pull the trigger. That tendency has led to him to take 46 sacks in 2017! That is the 4th-most in the NFL. Now, not all of them are on Taylor. Sure, there are many factors as to why he took that many last season, I want to focus on the context of sacks that I believe were on him. I have watched every game from last year and he has tendencies, and I will post videos and critique on what I think is causing them.

When watching the following clips, pay attention to a few things: down and distance, shotgun vs under center, the defensive pre-snap and post-snap picture. Is it a single or two-high safety look? Depth of the QB’s drop (3-5-7 steps), where are the QB’s eyes from snap to sack? Was it a straight drop back or play action (this affects the depth of the drop AND how long he is holding onto the ball). Is he working right-to-left or left-to-right? The route concepts and depth of the routes; is the QB reading high-to-low or low-to-high? Man or zone coverage?

Understand, Taylor didn't play under center in college and he's struggled in the transition to the NFL, it matters and it makes a big difference. So from the tight camera angle shots focus on the protection. Which side does the center slide to? Did they have enough guys to block each defender? Depth of the pocket (remember, the interior offensive line sets the depth of the pocket, and the tackles and tight ends manage the width of the pocket). Did he have enough space to climb or slide in the pocket? How much time did he have from the time he hit the top of his drop?

All these things are going to factor into his success or lack thereof. The Browns struggling OL isn't going to be fun I promise you, if they can manage to get him 3 seconds I will be highly impressed and Taylor is going to have to man up and make the throws. The running game is going to be critical as well. Taylor has a league leading low INT% for a reason. He holds the ball and takes sacks, and this also leads to a misleading completion percentage. If he threw the ball away instead of taking a sack, his COMP% would be in the 50's and that's a fact.

Case Study 1: Tyrod Taylor Flees the Pocket Too Soon Versus Panthers.  

Taylor completed 68% of his passes in this game against the Panthers, a good defensive team, but was sacked three times. This play was completely on Taylor. Bills are in 22 package and they have McCoy in motion out of the backfield right and Jones wide right. They run a smash against a cover 3, this should be a boom boom timing play and Taylor gets happy feet and flees the pocket into a sack, he runs right into pressure separating off their blockers and get him in pursuit. Now to be fair the receivers spacing is off from the beginning but if Taylor holds the ball a half a tick longer the routes developed and there are two open receivers. He left the pocket in 2 seconds, had he waited 2.5 he would have seen the separation develop and bang first down move the chains.

Case Study 2:  Tyrod Taylor Needs to Throw it Away versus Broncos. 

  (Editor's note:  from here on out I have not included the direct link to the associated video, in order that your computer not have to deal with too many videos on the same page.  However, you may click on the link below each case study and it will play the youtube video on a separate page).  

Here's a play where he should have thrown it away. I get it it's only first down but taking a sack or failing to throw it away on first down leads to predictability on second down and, more than likely, 3rd-and-long situations. Here the Bills are going after a big play right after the second half KO and Denver has decent coverage. One thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand three, time to get rid of the ball. He bails out left and instead of throwing the ball away he takes a sack and now it's 2nd a 16. This is all on Taylor, once he clears that tackle box, throw the ball out of bounds. He doesn't and he puts the Bills back against the wall.

Tyrod Taylor Needs to Throw it Away versus Broncos.

Case Study 3:  Tyrod Taylor Fails to Climb Pocket

Let's concentrate on a team he will see at least twice a season if he stays in Cleveland and he has a terrible game, 54% CP sacked 6 times, 1 INT and ZERO TDs. Here he fails to step up into the pocket first and foremost, and then he holds the ball way too long. The cover 3 is average at best and he completely misses his read. Step up into the pocket and deliver the ball into space. Pretty plain and simple. This is on Taylor. He has to understand that those tackles are one on one out on a island and he has to be aware of his pocket and what's going on around him. That's not something you can coach. Instincts you are born with. There were a lot of knocks on Johnny but he had eyes in the back of his head and great pocket presence. Taylor has neither.

Tyrod Taylor Fails to Climb Pocket

Case Study 4:   Tyrod Taylor Moves Too Quickly Through Progressions vs Bengals

 3rd-and-6 and Taylor completely bails on his read progressions and it's looking like single high Man, and they are showing a possible backside robber, however the blocking is pretty good and the robber peels to the flat. At the 2 second mark Jones is open at his cut and breaks wide open over the middle. Taylor in this instance steps up too far when the Geno Atkins is taking an inside move and he pulls the ball down and steps into a sack at 3.5 seconds. Instead of sticking to his progressions he stared down a covered receiver on a deep comeback route and got sacked on a play that was an easy first down and a momentum changer. Had he paid attention and kept his head, made the right reads following his progression he would have seen Jones open at the top of his route and bang first down and a missed tackle could be six points.

Tyrod Taylor Moves Too Quickly Through Progressions vs Bengals

Case Study 5:  Tyrod Taylor Fails to Pull the Trigger vs Bengals

     1st-and-10 3 minutes left in the game, it's go time, game on the line. Move the chains and keep going. Cleveland is once again in the Marv Lewis favorite single high man, and they have Clay on the hot dig route at the sticks. Pre-snap read should be to him, boom move the chains. Instead Taylor holds the ball, looks around to Jones, who is breaking over the middle past the sticks, and could have been thrown into space, but Taylor again holds the ball. Shady McCoy was in a play flake and drifts to the left flat. But Taylor holds the ball over FIVE SECONDS, that's a death sentence in the NFL. The DE sacks Taylor, and two plays later in 3rd and 16 throws an INT when he sails it over the middle. Game over.

Tyrod Taylor Fails to Pull the Trigger vs Bengals

Case Study 6: Tyrod Taylor Misses TE Logan Thomas in MOF vs Falcons 

     Here's the Falcons in the same look Single High Man, he has three receivers running quick digs, and Thomas in a dig up the seam on the middle of the field is never looked at at all. The play fake bites the LBs which opens up the Middle of the field, the Single High safety was in a deep drop since he's last man standing in coverage. He makes one look to his left, looks hime down and in 3.5 seconds is sacked. Ball should have been gone a two, over the middle to Thomas. Maybe it's debatable as to if Thomas was even part of the read, but it was pass all the way and he was wide open, in the middle of the field, that's QB101.

Tyrod Taylor Misses TE Logan Thomas in MOF vs Falcons

Case Study 7:  Tyrod Taylor Bails Out of the Pocket on 3rd and Long vs Falcons

     3rd and a long 15 working out of his endzone in the shotgun. Cover two in tight trips left 00 personnel empty backfield so the DE's are coming. WR to the right is running an 8 step bang route over the middle slant, and the nickel releases at the cut realizing he has cover two behind him. Taylor completely misses him open in space. They ran out routes from both sides to purposely open up the middle by design. Left slot runs a bang seven over the middle but is covered somewhat, he does separate late. However Taylor first leave the pocket right, for whatever reason, and breaks back left because he hung his right tackle out to dry. He's now destroyed the pocket and not looking up field. He scrambles left and instead of again throwing the ball away he runs out of bounds and now puts his punter's heels on the back line in the endzone.

Tyrod Taylor Bails Out of the Pocket on 3rd and Long vs Falcons

Why a QB Absolutely Has to Be Chosen First in the 2018 NFL Draft

Dude, if you are an NFL GM, you are so not going to draft anyone but a quarterback in at least the first three positions this year.  Why?  Well, let's take you through the proof that today's quarterbacks are unlike anyone we have ever seen before.  Let's first take a look at Aaron Rodgers in college, courtesy of the 2005 College All-Star festivities.  This is a simple drill, throw the ball as far as you can and see where it lands on the turf.  Now watch Aaron heave the rock for an amazing 64 yards, and then 70 yards (but off target).  

At around 3:30, a 22 year old Aaron Rodgers, at the same age as Rosen and Allen, heaves the ball 70 yards.


Ok, got it.  Impressed?  Good.

Well, now let's watch Josh Rosen throw from his own 15 yard line and hit a receiver chest high at about the 4 yard line.  That's a bit more than 80 yards, and it the receiver hadn't caught it, probably it would travel a few more yards before hitting the turf. The press couldn't quite believe it, and in fact they reported this throw as a 60 or 65 yard pass.  But check out the yard markers.  Josh is clearly behind his 15.  The receiver is clearly beyond the opposite 5 yard line. This ball traveled 80 yards in the air, not one inch less, and if the receiver had let it go it would have gone several yards further.  

    This is real. I'm not aware of John Elway or Dan Marino doing something like this (show me the tape, you geezers, before swearing that some old timer could do it). The only conclusion is that this kid can throw a football at least 10 to 15 yards farther than Aaron Rodgers at the same age.  

Go to 1:25 or so...Rosen is definitely throwing from behind his 15 yard line and hits his man beyond the opposite 5 yard line.  Do the math, that's 80 yards.  It's so shocking that the throw is reported in the press as 65 yards because they can't believe he really did that. 

Now, let me remind you that Josh Rosen is thought to have the third best arm in the draft behind Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Sam Darnold didn't throw at the Combine, and in my mind has to slide to fourth best, but he is up there too.  

     This is borne out by velocity measurements at the Combine.  Unfortunately, there is some confusion between average and peak velocity,  as I pointed out in a previous blog, and in 2018 so far only the slower numbers have been reported.  But with that understanding, Josh Allen's peak velocity is best estimated at 66 mph (62 mph average), which is 6 mph faster than the previous high ever recorded (Logan Thomas). The College All-Star game also reports measuring Josh Allen at 66 mph.  Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are also significantly above the previous record.      

   The inescapable conclusion is that these kids throw harder than anyone else has ever thrown before.  Better than Aaron Rodgers for sure.  Has anybody got film of Elway throwing 80 or 90 yards?
    To be sure, a strong arm isn't everything, and many times the guys with the strongest arms don't make it. So check the scouting reports and find out if they have bad decision making or accuracy issues.  Supposedly, the latter problem will hold Josh Allen back.  However, if you check into it, you find out that Josh Allen's best receiver is a converted quarterback who also plays guard on the basketball team. That's his best guy.  I keep on asking for someone to produce game film on Allen showing inaccuracy and no one has sent me any yet.  Anyway, if you don't like Allen, there's Mayfield and Allen who did put up good numbers in college.  Sam Darnold's velocity is unproven, but the eyeball test says he is comparable to Rosen. 

   Now, knowing that you have arms in the draft that are the best in history, better than John Elway, tell me again how you're going to justify taking a running back instead of a quarterback.  How can you have four guys with a better arm than Elway, and you're not going to draft the guy you think is best.  Because what?  You want a running back or a safety?

      That is insane!  There's a reason why quarterbacks get paid twice as much as running backs.  It's very hard to imagine that an NFL GM is going to turn down the opportunity to draft the most talented quarterbacks of all time in order to draft a very good position player such as Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb or Minkah Fitzpatrick.  I think all of them are going to the Pro Bowl soon.  But some of these qbs are headed to the Hall of Fame, and probably more than one.  These guys are going to change the face of the NFL forever.  You cannot pass that up.  

What's Up With Very fast QB Ball Velocity This Year?

Quarterback velocities are up this year--way up.    Josh Allen reportedly can throw a football 66 miles per hour, which is 6 mph better than the previous best (Logan Thomas, who by the way didn't make it as an NFL player).  That's a full 10% improvement, an amazing figure.  To put it into perspective, if a person were to beat the previous 40 yard dash by 10%, he would run a 3.8.  Holy kazoo!  What is going on here?  It may be that this year there has been a quantum leap in the ability of human beings to throw a football.

That of course piques my curiousity, so I did some research on the subject.  First thing to know is that there are two sets of numbers being used. Dan Shonka of Ourlads.com published results in 2017 and 2018 for a pass to the right, and another pass to the left. His results are found here:

2017 and prior velocities from Ourlads.com

2018 Ourlads.com

 Others use numbers from Dan Brugler of NFL Draft Scout.  

Dane Brugler's 2017 Data.

For example, Our Lads lists Mitchell Trubinsky's speed thusly:  51 (left), 50 (right).  But NFL Draft Scout lists is velocity as 55 mph.  Supposedly 55 is usually the cutoff for a successful NFL quarterback.  

Who's right?  Well, both of them. I emailed both of them, and from what they say,  the numbers both come directly from the Combine.  However, NFL Draft Scout lists the "peak velocity"  whereas Our Lads lists some sort "average velocity". I'm not sure about the details, but basically what we need to know is that the ball slows down a little as it travels due to air resistance.  It does not travel at constant velocity. Presumably if you throw a wobbly ball, that will slow down more than a tight spiral.  The net is that you have to add about 4 mph to the Ourlads.

Okay, but now let's look at the 2018 numbers from Our Lads.  Are these still the "slow" numbers as in 2017?  If so, they are ridiculously higher in 2018 than 2017.  In the case of Allen, however, they measured his velocity at 66 mph at the Senior Bowl, whereas Our Lads lists it as 62 mph. The 4 mph difference is very similar to the difference between the two 2017 data sets, so quite possibly the Our Lads numbers are still the "average" (lower) numbers.   If so then we should add 4 mph to all the numbers to estimate  the peak velocity.  So let's first  list the numbers from Our Lads

Austin Allen - Arkansas - 53 (left), 54 (right)

Josh Allen - Wyoming - 62 (left), 62 (right)

JT Barrett - Ohio State - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Kurt Benkert - Virginia - 55 (left), 56 (right)

Sam Darnold - Southern Cal - did not throw

Danny Etling - LSU - 54 (left), 56 (right)

Luke Falk - Washington State - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Riley Ferguson - Memphis - 52 (left), 54 (right)

Quinton Flowers - South Florida - 49 (left), 49 (right)

Lamar Jackson - Louisville - 49 (left), 49 (right)

Kyle Lauletta - Richmond - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Tanner Lee - Nebraska - 56 (left), 57 (right)

Chase Litton - Marshall - 53 (left), 55 (right)

Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma - 59 (left), 60 (right)

Josh Rosen - UCLA - 57 (left), 59 (right)

Mason Rudolph - Oklahoma State - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Nic Shimonek - Texas Tech - 55 (left), 55 (right)

Mike White - Western Kentucky - 53 (left), 55 (right)

Logan Woodside - Toledo - 52 (left), 52 (right)

Without adjusting anything, there are 8 guys who throw at the 55 mph threshold or higher:  Allen, Benkert, Darnold, Etling, Lee, Mayfield, Rosen, Shimonek.  Darnold sat out the throwing competition, but I'm putting him on the list because we know darn well that he can. If it is true that we should add the additional 4 mph then  add another 7 guys to the list of faster-than-Trubisky club at 55 mph and above. The All-Time list would be headed by the first four guys from 2018 (Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Tanner Lee). That is hard to believe. Perhaps these guys are not from planet Earth.  

As an engineer, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that  something is different about the way they carried out the tests, and that the numbers are too high.  Perhaps the old radar gun broke and they replaced it with a new model or something like that. Different guns have different readings depending on where they pick up the ball (earlier = faster, later=slower).  

It would be nice if the NFL used a standard, documented test procedure, similar to an ASTM standard (American Society for Testing and Materials).  It takes several thousand dollars to get the method approved, but once it's approved there would be no doubt that the test is reproducible and can be compared from year to year.   

Irrespective of the comparison between conflicting data sets, the eyeball test tell me that nobody in NFL history has ever thrown the ball like Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold.   We have not seen this level of ability in years, if ever.  This quarterback class may be able to smash the records of the fabled 1983 class with Elway, Marino, Kelly and O'Brien.

Why Was Danny Shelton Given Away?

Danny Shelton has been traded from the Browns to the Patriots.  Plus the Browns thrown in an extra 7th round pick.  The Patriots give nothing in 2018, then in 2019 they will send a third round pick to the Browns.  This for a guy who was 12th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.  

I've been a big fan of the giant Samoan kid, Danny Shelton q Defensive Lineman formerly of the Cleveland Browns, and now a New England Patriots.  At 6'2" and 335 pounds, give or take, he was one of the biggest and strongest guys on the team.  Pro Football Focus rated him as the 31st best interior lineman in the NFL, an above average player.  What gives?  Why did they get rid of him?

Ultimately, I don't know any more that the rest of you.  But I'll offer this speculation--to me this has the mark of Paul DePodesta, the baseball "analytics" guy that Sashi Brown hired.  DePodesta has been quiet, but new GM has kept him on the team, rather than fire him along with Brown.  DePodesta might really be the better analytics expert, not Brown, who was prone to make crazy decisions (like give away Joe Haden to the Steelers, for one).  Anyway, DePodesta understands the concept of "negative value" in a salary cap sport.  A player's value is related to how much he gets paid.  You try to maximize value and minimize cost.  So a guy who plays great and doesn't cost too much is worth adding to the team.  Conversely, if you feel he is overpaid, you should not add him to the team unless someone actually pays you.  The clearest example was Brock Osweiler, a backup quarterback who somehow got signed to a huge contract with substantial guarantees. The Browns wouldn't give anything to get him, they demanded and got a second round draft pick from the Texans in order to accept Osweiller's $16 Million salary cap charge.  So could it be that  the Browns thought that Danny Shelton was not worth $3 M?  DePodesta would ask, what if we took that $3M per year and signed a comparable player?  What have teams gotten when they invest $3 M on a player on the open market?  I looked up on spotrac.com the amounts that teams paid for defensive tackles in 2017.  Guys like Akeem Spence, Margus Hunt, Al Woods, got paid less than Shelton, but performed at a comparable level by Pro Football Focus' estimation.  They had Shelton ranked as the 35th best interior lineman (nose tackles and DT's all mixed together). Hunt was 33rd, Woods 24th.  Others, like Damien Square (99th) and Smith (65th)  were not at Shelton's level. 

Another question is how good Shelton actually is.  Danny had trouble with his weight as a rookie and really didn't play well.  But in 2016, a slimmed down Shelton was outstanding and there was talk that he might even make the Pro Bowl--as a Nose Tackle.  Shelton is perfect for a nose tackle.  He's big, strong and can plug up the middle of the line and stop the run.  But the Browns switched to a 4-3 defense, and Shelton became a Defensive Tackle, rather than a Nose Tackle.  They are not the same position. 

In particular, Danny was notorious for a plodding 5.64 time and the Combine.  For a Nose Tackle, it doesn't matter that much.  But a Defensive Tackle, there are increased responsibilities for rushing the passer and moving laterally.  In this case, his lack of speed is going to limit his effectiveness in Gregg Williams' defense. How could he be as effective as a mobile DT in the 4-3 versus the immovable object NT in the 3-4?  That seems unlikely.

Danny Shelton is slower than Tom Brady. By a lot. Ouch.  

Well, what about Pro Football Focus?  They gave Danny fairly high grades,right?  Well that is true.  PFF says they have several graders who watch every play.  I doubt whether they pay that much attention to the Browns, however.  I'm not a genius grader, but I thought in particular Joe Schobert was greatly improved starting in Preseason 2017.  But PFF gave him lousy grades for a few weeks (like in the 40s, which is F minus). before someone woke up. In the same way I doubt whether they paid attention to the defensive line. Trevon Coley?  Who's that?  Well Trevon had more tackles, more assists, more tackles for a loss, 2 sacks (versus zero for Danny), and a fumble recovery (none for Danny).  That earned Trevon a D plus.   How can anyone get a D plus on a line  on a line that was second in the NFL in yards allowed per carry??  Danny Shelton got a solid B, and especially surprising is that he was rated more highly against the pass than Coley.  Are you kidding?  There are glaciers that move faster than Danny's pass rush. 

Hence I'm not sure how accurately they graded the Browns in general, and in particular the defensive line.  PFF says they evaluate performance, and not talent level, and if so they are sloughing off on the Browns.  I think Shelton played out of position last year, and his performance was not nearly at the same level as in 2016.   He is just not that good in the 4-3 defense, and the PFF grade on Shelton as well as other Browns is hard to justify.  Coley, in fact, was rated as the worst interior lineman on the Browns, rated behind Larry Ogunjobi, Shelton, Jamie Meder and Caleb Brantley.   That is nuts that Coley is rated so poorly and once again I can't take PFF seriously in their evaluations of the Browns' players.

  However the larger point may be that all the Browns' Defensive Tackles have actually played well.  I could totally believe that after a winter of reviewing film, they felt that their 4-3 defense is better off with Coley, Ogunjobi, Meder and Brantley.   Maybe then Danny was headed for third string, and $3 Million per year was too steep of a price for someone not getting a lot of snaps.  

I think Danny will perform much better for the Patriots, and it would not shock me if he makes the Pro Bowl one of these years.  I'm sad to see him go, because he is a personal favorite.  It seems like a crazy move, but matbe not if you look at the salary cap, who's available, and who we already have.  

Why Josh Allen's Low Completion Percentage Doesn't Matter

Introducing the First Overall Pick of the 2018 NFL Draft

   Josh Allen put up some very vanilla numbers last year for the Wyoming Cowboys.  In particular, his completion percentage is under 60%.  Most of the time, NFL teams should steer clear of a guy with a low completion percentage.  I don't think that is the case for Allen, however.  Here are a few reasons why:

1. Coach Craig Bohl runs a Pro-Style offense at Wyoming rather than the Spread.  Bohl's quarterbacks will never put up the numbers that the up-tempo Spread guys put up simply because they have fewer plays and fewer pass attempts.  Bohl's teams won with both Carson Wentz and Josh Allen, but the stats for both were unimpressive.  Bohl likes to win.  He doesn't care about generating stats for the quarterback.  So sue the guy.  But don't blame the quarterback.

2.  Bohl uses very few dump passes to the halfback. In 2017, halfbacks Overstreet and Woods had a total of 7 passes for the SEASON.  Those passes usually have a very high completion percentage, like 70-80%, and Wyoming just didn't use them very often.  

3.  The 2016 Wyoming Cowboys graduated the team's top 2 wide receivers, tight end and running back, losing a total of 4800 yards.  That is an unbelievable total, 86% of the offense, and it was simply not possible to make it all up.   In particular, wideout Tanner Gentry had 1326 receiving yards and running back Brian Hill  rushed for an impressive 1860 yards. The  players who remained were much less accomplished, including wide receivers C. J Johnson (304 yards) and Austin Conway (103 yards), plus running back Nico Evans, who had a grand total of 33 rushing yards.  That's it.  In 2017, Conway led the team with 549 receiving yards, and no running back gained as many as 500 yards.  Conway is an interesting guy, a converted quarterback who also plays for the basketball team.  He also rushed 15 times for 70 yards. That shows that they like him to have the ball in his hands, but perhaps it also shows that the team felt they needed another way to get him the ball besides through the air. If your best guy is a converted quarterback with just a year of experience as a receiver, you're not going to have a flying circus offense. To make a long story short, the 2017 Wyoming team was unusually weak on offense with the exception of the quarterback position.  They don't catch very well.

4.  Watch some film!!   I have gone back and watched some games front to back, not nearly everything but at least a few.  In my opinion, Lazy sportswriters didn't really watch Wyoming Cowboys games. They just saw the low completion percentage and say he's inaccurate.  It's not true.  If you watch his games, you see him place the ball where it's supposed to be.  But his pocket breaks down frequently and he throws out of bounds to avoid the sack.   There are some Youtube videos that attempt to show negative Allen performances, but even they actually indicate the opposite.  I watched him throw a few incompletions that were dropped by inexperienced receivers, or in which the receiver obviously ran the wrong route. One play comes to mind in which he was criticized for throwing the ball low to an open receiver.  That's true. But to me he was placing it where only the offensive player had a chance to catch it and the defender had no chance to make the interception.  That's the correct throw.  If you complete a pass and then get the receiver knocked out, that's not going to work in the long run.  Then there are other passes where he flat out overthrows somebody or gets deked by the cornerback. But overall, I believe there is a very high percentage of throws that are on target.   

5. On rare occasion, highly ranked NFL quarterbacks put up ho-hum stats in college.  Carson Wentz comes to mind, playing in Craig Bohl's offense and winning a championship with unimpressive stats.   Matthew Stafford was first overall,  though like Allen, he completed fewer than 60% of his passes.  Dan Marino threw 23 INTs his senior year versus 17 TDs.  Stats are great, but you have to study deeper to figure out what they really mean.

To my amateur's eye, I see an accurate passer in Mr. Allen. More concerning is that there are a lot of one-look and-then-run plays. He actually ran a lot in 2016, but calmed down a bit in 2017.  There also a few times when he locked on to a favorite receiver waiting for him to get open rather than looking for the next progression. In those areas, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Josh Rosen are probably ahead of him. 
  

NFL Draft Analytics: Is a 7th Round Pick Worth More than an Undrafted Free Agent?

It might be that Undrafted Free Agents (UDFAs) are worth more than a seventh round draft pick.  What?  How can that be, you may ask,  since the seventh round pick is chosen ahead of all the undrafted players?   

Well, hear me out.  AN NFL team adds about ten undrafted guys upon conclusion of the NFL draft.   That number is a little imprecise because teams rapidly cut players and other teams re-sign them tried to figure out.  But the talent pool is roughly 320 players, give or take. 

I found a 2014 article by Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette Free agent numbersthat says that 64 players made the opening day roster, or two per NFL team.  That's about 2 per team out of 10 candidates.  There's a 20% success rate for UFA, but 7th rounders are not a 100% but I hardly ever hear of a draft pick failing to make the roster.  So let's say the typical NFL team roster has 1 (new) seventh round guy, and 2 new UFA's.  

But how many of those are actually good players?  To answer that question, I rely on a small study by Forbes  Magazine (Patrick Wishe via RIchard Thaler) and tells where NFL starters came from circa 2014.  Using  60% as a crude estimate for the probability that a round 1 draftee becomes a starter, I estimate the success rate for other rounds as being scaled back from 60% by the number of starting players from each round, divided by the number of starters from Round 1.  That is, 

Success Rate  = 60%*(number of nth round starters)/(number of 1st round starters). 

So I added a column to the table that estimates what the chances are in each round for getting a player who becomes a starter during his career.

Source of Players	Number of Starters	Success Probability
Round 1	178	60.0%
Round 2	105	35.4%
Round 3	75	25.3%
Round 4	64	21.6%
Round 5	38	12.8%
Round 6	29	9.8%
Round 7	25	8.4%
UDFA per tryout spot (10)	81	2.7%
UDFA per 53 roster spot (2)	81	13.7%
UDFA total	81	27.3%

Note that only about 8.4% of NFL starters come from Round 7.   Yet three times as many come from UDFAs.  How can that be? Probably it's because you get to audition about ten guys, and usually pick about 2 for the 53 man roster. So even if the average talent level is lower, you get to identify the standouts in Training Camp.  On the other hand, teams almost never cut the seventh round pick in Year 1, so like it or not you're stuck with him.  Put another way, you have a roster spot that is 92% likely not to produce a starter.  For your two UDFAs, there is a 27% chance that your guy eventually becomes a starter.  That's about the same as Round 3!  Again, it's not because the talent level is so high, it's because you get 10 chances and weed out 8 of the 10 during summer camp.

It's a small data set, and the definitions and categories need to be more rigidly quantified before reaching a definite conclusion.   But it appears that the roster spot occupied by the seventh round draft choice may be less productive, on the average, than the roster spots occupied by UDFAs.  The reason is that ten players compete for two roster spots for UDFAs, whereas the 7th round draft pick is usually given a roster spot without having to compete for it. Hmm.  

For further review:

Forbes Success rate vs draft position

ALL 21 Year Old NFL Quarterbacks are Terrible

     All 21 year old quarterbacks are a new phenomenon because of the change in draft rules.   In 2017 DeShone Kizer of the Cleveland Browns became the the third youngest NFL starter of game 1 in league history.  The others were Drew Bledsoe and Matthew Stafford.   Bledsoe completed less than 50% of his passes in his rookie year, though he won 5 games, which I believe is the record for a 21 year old.  Stafford went 2-8, which is more typical.  Other 21 year olds included Bernie Kosar, Alex Smith, Tommy Maddox, Blaine Gabbert,  Johnny Manziel and Fran Tarkenton.   Some of them were legitimate stars over their total career.  But not at age 21.  

Johnny Manziel was horrible as a 21 year old, okay at age 22, but improved significantly in his second year before substance abuse ended his career.  You would think that the Browns might have learned something from this experience, but no, they had to start DeShone Kizer at the same age.  What could possibly go wrong?  

As far as I am aware, every single 21 year old starter in NFL history has had a losing  rookie season, unless you count Jack Concannon, who went 1-0 in 1964.   Other than that, EVERY SINGLE ONE has been a loser, and most have been terrible.  Tarkenton made the Hall of Fame, but not for his rookie season at 2-8 followed by a 2-11-1.  

The historical record tells us that it is stupid to start a 21 year old in the NFL.  Still, teams are going to continue to do it, thinking it will lead to a quick turnaround.  In 2018, there are a couple 21 year olds with great ability in Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson will all be 21 years old at the start of the 2018 season.  Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield have had four years of major college ball and will be 23.   Josh Allen will be 22.   You might have a shot starting one of the older guys.  And I might think a little about Lamar Jackson because he is a running quarterback.  But the odds are against it.  I don't expect to hear from Darnold or Rosen till 2019 at the earliest. 

Look, draft the guy if you think he's that good, but keep him on the bench for a year or two to learn the offense. THEN you will find out whether you've got something.  You learn nothing by sending him out too soon and getting his head bashed in.  

    By the way, in case you were curious, rookies Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were all 22 by the start of the 2017 season, and they all had 3 years of college football versus 2 years for DeShone Kizer.  So it should not come as a shock if DeShone Kizer is a year behind the others.  If you believe that football quarterbacks are normally not very good until their sixth season out of high school, then Kizer might assert himself in 2019.  I would not assume he is ready to start in 2018 since he will be only 22.  

    

    Watson was a legitimate star in his rookie year, although I would argue that a lot of that had to do with his ability to disrupt defenses with his running ability, rather than strictly his ability as a pocket passer.    But okay, he was a legit star at age 22.   As for Trubisky and Mahomes, neither of them in their short careers has a higher NFL passer rating than Colt McCoy.  They might be great later on, but in 2017 they were not outstanding....yet they are a year older than Kizer.  You just have to wait until they reach age 23 till you can get an idea what they can really do.  

Why didn't the Patriots Franchise Jimmy Garoppolo and Trade Him (to the Browns?)

       

      Now, everyone knows that Jimmy Garoppolo is a franchise quarterback.  Fans wonder why the Patriots didn't franchise tag Garoppolo and then trade him to a qb-hungry team like the Cleveland Browns for a first round pick.  Instead, they now have a second round pick, and no logical successor to Tom Brady. Stupid Patriots! Well, maybe not so stupid.  First of all, if you wind the clock back to the trading deadline in November, everyone suspected Jimmy G was a franchise qb, but they weren't sure.  NOW they are sure.  

       So, if the Patriots figured they liked Jimmy G but couldn't afford him in 2018, why not just keep him through the season, franchise tag him and trade him for a first round pick?  The "franchise tag" would have allowed the Patriots to keep Jimmy for one year, but they would have to pay the average of the top 5 players at his position.

         Sounds like a great plan, but it would not have worked.  First of all, do you realize that the Franchise Tag for qbs is going to be around $23 Million dollars in 2018?  The perception was (probably still is) that there are at least five first round quarterbacks in the 2018 draft.   Now, why should I give the Patriots my first round pick and also pay $23 Million dollars for an unproven quarterback who isn't necessarily better than the rookie?  Remember, this was back in November, so we hadn't seen him lead a weak San Francisco team to five straight wins.   In particular, the Browns would predictably want to draft a quarterback rather than let someone else draft one.  Shades of Brock Osweiler!  
      Instead, use that pick on a quarterback, and take the $23 Million dollars and get, say, Le'Veon Bell plus a decent offensive lineman. 
     If you wanted to trade Garoppolo to Cleveland instead of New England, you don't get Brian Hoyer who was a Patriot for several years under Belichick and McDaniel and already knows most of the offense.  Instead the Browns cut Kevin Hogan or Cody Kessler, and that would have been Brady's backup.  What's smart about that?
     No, the Patriots knew what they had in Garoppolo and kept him as long as they could, as insurance for Tom Brady.  By trading him to San Francisco, they got the best possible deal they could from San Francisco, and get a second round pick plus a very credible backup in Brian Hoyer, for a guy they were not going to be able to keep.  Plus, this is the Patriots.  Some qb is going to slide to the second round, and they might nab him at that point.  One scary thought is what if they get Lamar Jackson, and he has the opportunity to learn about being a pocket quarterback from Tom Brady?  

     

The Cleveland Browns are the New England Patriots of the Off-Season

   The Cleveland Browns were not build to win in 2017.  They were built to get draft picks, draft position and salary cap.  So while they were the worst in the NFL on the field, they will dominate the 2018 off season, for what it's worth.  The Browns will be the team that adds the most talent via Free Agency, and they will also be the team that adds the most talent via the Draft.  

   Tanking is becoming a new fashion in the NFL, as bad teams realize that there is a payoff for being really bad.  Conventional theory (developed by Brandt & Schramm of the Cowboys 25 years ago) is that the first overall pick is worth three times the mid-first round picks.  So cut some expensive talent, make sure that you are awful and in theory you get much better personnel for the next few years.  The Browns took that to an extreme by getting rid of players who were still very viable and paring down the salary cap to among the lowest in the NFL.  Meantime they accumulated draft picks, including the fourth overall pick from the Texans, and 36th overall from the Texans.  

    Other tanking teams included the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets, both of whom have accumulated draft picks and salary cap space.  On paper, the 49ers seem to have a smaller payroll than the Browns.  But, they have to sign Jimmy Garoppolo and they are potentially losing 18 players to free agency, representing 2017 salaries of $21 Million. If they franchise tag Garoppolo ($21 Million dollars at least in 2018, compared to his 2017 salary of $871 thousand).  Plus, don't you think they should leave some money to sign draft choices? All told, they need to spend about  $50 million dollars just to stay even.  Their net payroll will probably go up about $25 million dollars.  
    The Jets are in a similar situation, having to replace departing players currently earning $25 Million.  

   The Browns are losing only three: Isaiah Crowell, backup OL Marcus Martin and backup  DL Lavar Edwards, total 2017 salaries less than $5 million dollars.  Frankly, I don't think Marcus and Lavar are going to be able to make the team. 
    Forget about the inflated "total cap room" which is the maximum possible money a team can spend, meaning they sign no draft choices, re-sign none of their departing veterans, and use all of their saved-up carryover money this year.  That's totally unrealistic.

   The real stat you need is the "expected salary differential" or the estimated amount of money that will be added to the previous year's payroll, after replacing departing free agents, and includes a budget for draft choices, and paying off "dead money."  Carryover salary cap should is not included, because that is unlikely to be spent unless the team is a playoff contender.  "Carryover" money is like the team's savings account, usually not spent unless there is an emergency.  

   

Cleveland Browns:

Base cap...........................................................+ $178 Million

Active Player salaries.......................................- $117 Million

Departing player salaries to be replaced..........- $    5 Million

Dead money (inactive players)........................- $  10 Million

Draft pick salaries (13)....................................- $  18 Million
Value of players replaced by draft pic (13).....+$     7 Million

Net    differential..............................................+$  35 Million

So, I come up with about $35 Million, which is the amount of money that can realistically be used to sign new players.  That's enough to afford 2 or 3 very good players.  I believe they will sign a veteran, probably A. J. McCarron, and likely they will draft a qb as well.  

Does that mean that they will be a good team?  I think they will have playoff caliber personnel, but with no experience at how to win.  The computer doesn't realize that that is a problem, but my feeling is that it may take quite some time to develop a winning culture in Cleveland.