Grading Ray Farmer's Free Agent Moves

      A big aspect of the General Manager's jobs is the signing of free agents.  How has Ray Farmer done with the Browns.   It's not an easy question to answer, especially in view of the salary cap.  You can't just sign All Pros at each position, and you are obliged to play several guys with low salaries.

    Moreover, if a player wants to leave, this may not be preventable.  The GM can try structure the right deal, but the player might reject it anyway.  That goes with the territory when a team has established a record of losing like the Browns have.     

    Nevertheless, let's take a look at what the Browns have done the past two years.  For a team that supposedly has no talent, some impressive players have gone on to have good careers elsewhere.  I've listed the average salary as a rough indicator of what they are worth, but of course in the NFL things are never simple. 

      S    T. J. Ward, Pro Bowler for the Broncos        $5.6 M
      LB  D Qwell Jackson, Pro Bowler for the Colts   $5.5 M
     DE  Jabal Sheard, starter for New England         $5.5 M
     CB  Buster Skrine, starter for the  New York Jets $6.2 M
     DT  Ahtyba Rubin, starter for the  Seahawks       $2.6 M
     QB  Brian Hoyer, starter for the Texans               $5.2 M
     WR  Willie Snead starter for the Saints                $0.5 M 
     RB Dion Lewis, starter for the Patriots (IR)           $1.3 M
     WR  Charles Johnson, 2014 starter for  Vikings   $0.5 M
     QB  Brandon Weeden, backup for the Texans     $0.6 M

A few players were signed and then cut or released:
     WR  Miles Austin, Eagles
     RB   Ben Tate
     TE   Rob Housler
    
      It can also be mentioned that Farmer has been able to use the free agent system to his advantage.  For example, he created a front loaded deal for Andrew Hawkins that the Bengals couldn't match, and also created a "transition tag" for Alex Mack that allowed the Browns to keep him after all the sportswriters were sure that he would not stay.   In general, Farmer does not use back loaded contracts that will mortgage the teams future.  I give him high marks for that.   

    OK, so let's take a look at the major players we signed and who are still on the roster:
  
    LB   Karlos Dansby   starter                                 $6.0 M
    S     Donte Whitner starter                                   $7.0 M
    QB  Josh McCown, starter (I think)                      $4.7 M
    DE  Desmond Bryant, starter                               $6.8 M
    DE  Randy Starks, starter                                    $3.3 M
    CB  Tramon Williams, starter                               $7.0 M
    WR Andrew Hawkins  starter                               $3.4 M
    WR Dwayne Bowe backup                                  $6.3 M
    WR Brian Hartline, backup                                  $3.0 M
    TE  Jim Dray, backup                                          $1.9 M
    QB  Austin Davis, backup                                    $1.8 M

      Here again, these guys are good players and appear to be hard workers and good teammates.  Of these seven free agent starters, four of them have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, but not last year's.  So one crude metric is that ex-Browns Jackson and Ward are getting less than their replacements (Dansby and Whitner) who needless to say did not make the 2015 Pro Bowl.  

   The Browns are definitely paying higher 2015 salaries, although as noted previously the contracts are not back loaded.  We'll be able to keep these players a while.  

    A few players don't look great right now, notably Bowe, but overall I would say that the Browns have had reasonable success with free agents.  Overall, it seems to me that the lack of team success is not explainable by performance in signing the right free agents.   It has to be that there are flaws in the coaching of these players.   

Not a Crisis with Manziel, Let's Move On

    Johnny Manziel apparently had a relapse in his recovery from substance abuse and lied about it to the coaching staff. For this reason he has been demoted to third on the depth chart.  Naturally, the sports media is going crazy either demanding that he be re-installed as the starter or else cut.  

The Browns quarterback cadre of Austin Davis, Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw is deep if not overly talented.  They'll be home for the holidays, don't worry.  

    This is all over-reaction, in my view.  Relapsing is a serious matter but it is not a crime.  Nor, for that matter, is Johnny's re-assignment considered cruel and unusual punishment.   The Browns are dealing with an employee that has a medical issue, and the recovery has been generally good but now there is a relapse.  

    In reality, the pressure to make a decision soon is mainly psychological.  Manziel is under contract through 2017 and they have an option for 2018.    

     Currently Josh McCown is the 13th ranked NFL quarterback despite playing on an inept team with an underperforming line and nonexistent running game.  They also have Austin Davis, who had three wins as a starter in 2014 for the Rams, and Connor Shaw who looked good in 2014 in a start for the Browns.  So the Browns might draft a kid to compete for one of three roster spots (hopefully Connor Shaw can be on the Practice Squad, for a fourth option at quarterback), but they really don't have to.  There are other parts of the team that need to be fixed, not just quarterback.  

     It's not like Manziel's 2015 performance dictate whether we draft a qb or not in 2016.  If the right guy is available, the Browns should take him, Manziel or no Manziel.  But this rookie, whoever he is, would probably not be better in 2016 than fourth stringer Connor Shaw, who knows the playbook inside out by now.  Any rookie would be more likely to have an impact in 2017 or 2018.  

     If we learned anything in 2015, it's that Manziel remains a highly talented but risky proposition.  He's definitely good enough right now to have a roster spot, but maybe not mature enough to be first string.  That's okay, we can afford to wait. 

     Nothing bad happens to the Browns if JFB remains on the bench another year.  It doesn't mean we have to be desperate to replace McCown or even Davis.

   We have talent at the quarterback position, but at the same time we are:

   worst in the NFL in rush defense

   worst in the NFL rushing offense

   worst at giving up sacks

   bottom five in defensive sacks

   bottom five in overall defense

    That says to me that there are a number of positions that need to be upgraded.   I can't look at that and think that quarterback is the only position needing major help, even if Manziel is 100% unavailable in 2016   We need to continue to develop the guys we alread have, while  having a balanced slate of draft picks and free agents in 2016, not place all our chips on one key quarterback prospect.  

  

    

      

Seven Ex-Browns Starting for Other NFL Teams on Defense

The Browns Defense is Terrible Despite Having Talented Players.  How is This Possible?  (Dawg Pound Daily Photo). 

   The Browns defense has been getting good players, as evidenced by the fact that when they leave the Browns they go on to have good careers.    Amazingly, seven ex-Browns are starters for other NFL teams, including three players that made the Pro Bowl last year.   

    The Browns never liked Jabaal Sheard, who was a standout 4-3 defensive end in Dick Jauron's defense.   They sought to convert him to outside 3-4 linebacker and then replace him with another converted defensive end in perpetual prospect Barkevious Mingo.   Sheard has 4 sacks for New England so far.  

    Ahtyba Rubin had a huge contract with the Browns but had trouble staying healthy.   Now with Seattle, he's got 7 sacks so far.

    Old friend Frostee Rucker is starting for Arizona, another defensive powerhouse.   Rucker has 2 sacks.   Let's see, that's 13 sacks from ex-Brown defensive line personnel. That's not half bad.  The 2015 Browns entire TEAM has only 16 sacks through game 10.  

   Linebacker D'Qwell Jackson made the Pro Bowl last year for the Colts, along with Safety Mike Adams.  

  

    T. J. Ward also made the Pro Bowl at Safety, playing for the top rated Broncos defense.  

   Buster Skrine is starting for the Jets at Cornerback. 

    The Browns replaced these players with credible players. Randy Starks, Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Tashaun Gipson and Tramon WIlliams were all selected for at least one Pro Bowl.  With holdover Joe Haden, that makes six Browns that have made at least one Pro Bowl.   Other additions such as Danny Shelton, Chris Kirksey and free agent Paul Kruger are highly regarded as well.  But the sum total is a bottom five defense (29th as of mid-November).  

Could it be that something is wrong with the Browns coaching staff if they are unable to get performance from the highest paid defensive players in the NFL?   The signs point towards a continuous supply of quality players on the Browns' Defense but disappointing team play.  

   

DE  Jabaal Sheard  Patriots
NT Ahtyba Rubin   Seahawks
DE Frostee Rucker   Cardinals
LB D'Qwell Jackson  Colts 2015 Pro Bowl
CB Buster Skrine   Broncos
S TJ Ward  Broncos 2015 Pro Bowl
S Mike Adams, Colts 2015 Pro Bowl

DE Randy Starks 
NT Danny Shelton
DE  Desmond Bryant
LB Karlos Dansby
CB Tramon Williams
S Donte Whitner
S  Tashaun Gipson

Can Manziel Party and Play Football at the Same Time?

   Joe Namath did it.  Ken Stabler did it.   But can Johnny Manziel do it?  Namely, can Johnny combine a party boy lifestyle with the demands of being an NFL quarterback? A normal guy should be able to handle some partying.  But Johnny may not be all that normal as evidenced by a 10 week stint in rehab. My guess is that ultimately Manziel will find out that he can not play quarterback effectively while also playing party animal.

    Reportedly, Johnny was back at Texas A&M over the weekend, and seems to have had some fun with the ladies, and seems to have been photographed with a beer in his hand.  Nothing noteworthy about that, of course, except that it is surprising that completing rehab in the off-season, Manziel is still apparently allowed to consume alcohol.  I'm not an expert, but within my narrow experience, rehabilitation specialists do not recommend recovering substance abusers to consume alcoholic beverages. 

     Famous last words are, "But I'll be different!"  Let's hope so Johnny.  

     To me this return to partying lifestyle shows he may not have the all-consuming drive to play football that's necessary to succeed at the highest level.   It's just one's person opinion, but I would rather he stay clear of alcohol.  Bad things seem to happen to him when he drinks.  From a purely football viewpoint, Manziel had an excellent start while not drinking, but his more recent start, after an alcohol-related incident with his girlfriend, did not go well.  Not enough data for a trend, certainly, but I've seen enough to doubt whether Drunk Johnny can play at the same level as Sober Johnny.  

     For every Namath or Stabler, there is a huge list of athletes that flopped while living a hard partying lifestyle.   There's the ultimate fiasco, Ryan Leaf, and then guys like Jamarcus Russell, Todd Marinovich, Art Schlichter and many many others.  I still say that Jefferson Joe Gilliam was one of the most talented quarterbacks I've ever seen, and I've heard Terry Bradshaw say the same thing. This is a very rough road that Manziel seems intent upon trodding.  

Hanging out with the ladies is fine, just find some ladies that are not party animals.  

    Say, Bengals backup QB A. J. McCarron did ok with the former Miss Alabama, Kathryn Webb.  Johnny, why don't you give A. J. and Kathryn a call, maybe they'll set you up with someone nice? 

    Until he straightens up, I think the Browns have to continue to look at Josh McCown as well as third stringer Austin Davis.   But we'll see.

Why Everyone is Wrong About Johnny Manziel

  The whole world is crazy because of Johnny Manziel. Should the Browns cut him because he is a drug abuser? Should we fire General Manager Ray Farmer for drafting him in the first place?   Or should he be promoted to the starter's position in place of "boring" veteran Josh McCown? Is Manziel a superstar in the making?  

    I think all this is nonsense and Manziel is going to develop more or less like any other young quarterback.  People who expect instant results, good or bad, are wrong.  I think more than anything else he needs time to develop and trying to accelerate the process isn't going to work. 

   

    Manziel came out of college not one but two years early. He is actually a few months younger than Cardale Jones. Normal quarterback development results in starting by the second year after graduation, and sometimes during the rookie year.  If the Browns wanted instant results they should not have taken a guy who is so young.  Moving to the NFL did not necessarily accelerate his football development. He's still only 22 years old. The guy wound up in rehab, so apparently his personal development is not all that advanced either.  

     Based on his graduating class, 2016 should be his rookie season, and if didn't start his first year, 2017 might be his first year to put up numbers.  Anything that happens earlier than that is strictly a bonus.   The whole idea that his development is going to be accelerated because he came of college early is ridiculous, and I might add it's never been done before, because the NFL only recently allowed sophomores to be drafted. More than likely, he isn't going to develop any faster than Cardale Jones, and the expectation for instant success is completely fictitious.  That doesn't mean he is terrible.

   Most quarterbacks improve greatly from their first to second year, and don't emerge as a star until about age 23 or 24.  It would be great if Manziel would be a superstar right now, but that is not expected.  Normal development is for him to become a competent NFL starter in 2016 or 2017.   That's the track he should be on.   This business of needing to make a decision on starting him or cutting him immediately at age 22 is ABSURD and PATHOLOGICALLY STUPID.      

   Manziel did  some very stupid things in his rookie year.   It should have been his junior season at Texas A&M.  He's a kid, and not a very mature one at that.  Why would anyone expect a college junior to be a big and immediate success in the NFL?

   The Browns do not need to be in a hurry to "find out what they have."   This is just total fabrication by the sports media, because they would be the ones who would benefit.  First of all, football teams need to play to win every game, and if they play for next year they will not be able to attract players to their team. It's ridiculous to not field the best starting quarterback and to start the 2016 pre-season in 2015. If Manziel gives us the best chance to win, go for it.  But if not, let's hold off.

     Second, if we do rush him into action Manziel would probably struggle on a team with no running game and only one deep ball threat among wide receivers in Travis Benjamin.  Will that tell you how to set up your draft priorities in 2016?  I doubt it.  

    Even if he looks great, would we ever reach the point where we consider him to be irreplacable and quit looking for quarterbacks in the draft?  I doubt it.  And anyway Jerry Jones would outbid us in 2019 when Manziel becomes a free agent.  So just forget about making a ten year commitment to a young Peyton Manning.  That is just not going to happen.  The whole debate is insipid.

    Nothing really great happens by playing Manziel unless he is really the best option on a given Sunday.  
  
 Manziel is under contract through 2017 with an option year for 2018. Maybe Texas A&M would have been the ideal situation for him, and maybe the Browns should have taken him in a later round, but that's over the dam now.   He's here and practicing and getting better and also getting some game experience, though limited so far.  

    Equally ridculous are those who insist Manziel should be cut.  We should be sensitive to the fact that he is fighting a life threatening situation with drug addiction, and he simply can not play if he reverts back to active using.  There was a warning signal when he was apparently acting erratically last month.  However, nothing good would happen if Manziel is cut.  His bonus money would be taken out of the salary cap immediately. Why would the Browns want to do that  unless they are forced?  Meantime he is good enough to at least be a backup quarterback, as evidenced by his winning start against Tennessee in September.  

      Looking at the numbers, he is clearly improving after a disastrous 2014 rookie season.  He already has a win which is no small achievement for a backup quarterback.  How can anyone conclude that he is near his peak after two starts in 2015?  No, it is much more logical to believe that he will continue to improve in the next two or three years.  If he has a poor 2015, it doesn't mean he won't be better next year and the year after.

     The Browns are well stocked at quarterback with established starters Josh McCown and Austin Davis.  Neither are likely to be good enough to turn around a bad offense with no running game, but they would be okay if there were more help on offense.  Draft another wide receiver and a running back and let's see how it goes.  

      Cris Carter tells the parable of the muffins, and it goes something like this:  "Muffins come out of the oven when they are ready.  Sometimes it's ten minutes, sometimes fifteen.  If the muffin isn't ready after ten minutes, it doesn't mean it is a bad muffin.  Wait till its ready, then judge."  

Grading Ray Farmer's Drafts for the Browns, 2014 - 2015

How good has Ray Farmer been at drafting players?

One of my football acquaintances,  Shawn Start   of Dawg Pound Nation is leading a petition drive to fire Cleveland Browns GM Ray Farmer.  I’m among those that feels that the Browns’ failures on defense are too great to overlook, given Coach Pettine’s defensive background.  So I’m on record as favoring a coaching change even though I like Pettine personally.  

What about GM Farmer?  How good a job has he done at getting talent for th team?   In particular, we need a guy who is a draft guru.  One thing the Browns are good at is nailing draft position year after year after year.  

Farmer has had two drafts so far. In 2014 he traded up and also acquired some 2015 picks.   First round pick Justin GIlbert has been an underachiever, but has recently played well enough on special teams that the Browns can actually use him.  Manziel is promising but has substantial off-the-field baggage that threatens his career.  Bitonio is a solid starter, but not as good as his rookie year, for unknown reasons.  Kirksey is an average starter, and Desir might continue to develop into a starter.  West was good his rookie year but showed up this year out of shape and was traded.   In all, the Browns got two average starters, a developmental quarterback, a special teams player and a developmental defensive back.  That’s okay but not spectacular for a team that had extra picks (ten,  I think, at the start of the draft).   

1st Round (#8): CB Justin Gilbert

1st Round (#22): QB Johnny Manziel

2nd Round (#35): OG Joel Bitonio

3rd Round (#71): ILB Christian Kirksey

3rd Round (#94): RB Terrance West

4th Round (#127): CB Pierre Desir

In 2015, the Browns took a terrifically strong nose tackle but one of the slowest players in team history. I mean, he works out a Glacier National Park instead of a running track.   He is starting but not doing particularly well.  The other number one pick was Cameron Erving, who is sort of a utility infielder and developmental center if Alex Mack leaves.  2nd Round pick Nate Orchard is contributing but not starting for the worst run defense in the NFL.  The same is true of DT Xavier Cooper.   3rd round pick Duke Johnson has been good at receiving passes coming out of the backfield, but can’t run the ball.  Vince Mayle was so bad he was cut.  Charles Gaines has made zero contribution so far.  TE Randall Telfer is out with an injury along with Ifo Ekpre-Olomu who had a career ending knee surgery but was drafted by the Browns anyway.  Malcolm Johnson plays fullback.  Hayes Pullard has no stats so far.    So in total, the Browns have one fellow who is starting and about six guys that are developmental types.   

1st Round (#12): NT Danny Shelton

1st Round (#19): OL Cameron Erving

2nd Round (#51): OLB Nate Orchard

3rd Round (#77): RB Duke Johnson

3rd Round (#96): DT Xavier Cooper

4th Round (#115): S Ibraheim Campbell

4th Round (#123): WR Vince Mayle

6th Round (#189): CB Charles Gaines

6th Round (#195): FB Malcolm Johnson

6th Round (#198): TE Randall Telfer

7th Round (#219): ILB Hayes Pullard

7th Round (#241): CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu

So in two years we have zero impact players, three starters and about six contributors, some of who might develop into starters later on. That's not particularly good. In the next article, I'll take a look at free agent signings.

A Niche for Justin Gilbert?

    Believe it or not, the often-criticized Justin Gilbert is making a major contribution to the team....on Special Teams. 

    Gilbert has nailed down the job as first string kickoff returner, averaging 30.2 yards per return. The team felt good enough about his contribution that they were able to cut Shaun Draughn, who was averaging 21.2 yards per return. That clears a roster spot, as the Browns want to carry three tailbacks (Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson and recently-activated Robert Turbin), with Malcolm Johnson as the fullback.  If Gilbert were not successful as a returner, Draughn would have been kept as a fourth tailback in order to have him as a kickoff returner. 

Justin Gilbert was a disaster as a rookie.  Thank God for Johnny Manziel, so no one really noticed Gilbert's failures. This year he has been used as a backup in the defensive backfield while excelling in kick returning as well as coverage teams.  

   The surprising thing has been Gilbert's emergence as a legit threat on kickoff coverage.  Gilbert has 4 solo tackles on special teams, second to Special Teams stud Johnson Bademosi, who has 6.  Unlike Bademosi, however, GiIbert has 4.3 speed, which means opposing returners are not having much time with Gilbert homing in on them.   

     In 2014 Gilbert was a terrible disappointment, gaining a reputation for immaturity and hostility, while not being able to master the skill of playing cornerbak in the NFL.  He was drafted 10th overall, with the intention of being a cover corner in the Joe Haden class.   Well, that didn't happen, and frankly Gilbert is still not very effective in the defensive backfield.   

     So far Gilbert has only seen 1.9% of the snaps at DB.   So Gilbert may still be a disappointment at the level, particularly in view of his large salary and the fact that the Browns invested a very high draft pick for him.  But if he continues to play at a high level on special teams, he can at least be a valued member of the team even if he causes them to burn a little more of Jimmy Haslam's cash than they might otherwise.  

   

Travis Benjamin Has More Yards Than the Combined Total of All Other Browns WR

Travis Benjamin is undoubtedly the most improved Brown, and probably the team MVP in the early going. 

      Can it be that Travis Benjamin has more receiving yards (328) than the combined totals of all other Browns wideouts including Brian Hartline (123), Andrew Hawkins (112), Taylor Gabriel (67), Marlon Moore (15) and Dwayne Bowe (0)?   Unbelievably, Benjamin trumps the field,  328 to 317.   

Benjamin has put his career back on track after being injured in 2013 (knee surgery) and a poor 2014 campaign in which he didn't catch many balls as a wideout, and misjudged a number of punts.  Many observers (okay, including me, I admit) were expecting that the Browns would cut Benjamin in order to keep Terrelle Pryor as a recycled wide receiver after flopping as a quarterback.  Fortunately that did not happen.

Benjamin has been incredibly valuable as the other wide receivers have all but disappeared.   Dwayne Bowe suffered a pulled hamstring and no one has seen him run full speed in a game yet.   Last year's star rookie Taylor Gabriel has been very quiet, as well as our star free agent Andrew Hawkins.

It's equally surprising how the combined producion of Bowe, Gabriel and Hawkins has dropped off, while Benjamin has picked up most of the slack.  

          2014 (16 game avg)    2015 (4 game avg)

Hawkins           51.5                            28.0

Gabriel       39.4                 16.8

Bowe (KC)     47.1                   0.0

Benjamin       19.6                   82.0

The Browns are also getting decent production from tight end Gary Barnidge, and rookie running back Duke Johnson seems to want to make a few catches as well.  Last year for whatever reason the Browns were very reluctant to throw the ball to running backs Isaiah Crowell, Ben Tate (since cut) or Terrance West (since traded).

The twin mystery is how did Benjamin improve so much, and why have Hawkins, Bowe and Gabriel slid off the face of the earth?  

John DeFilippo Should be the Interim Coach of the Browns

Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo Should be the Next Coach of the Browns.  

      It's a foregone conclusion that Browns' terrible defense will get Coach Mike Pettine fired, along with his sidekick, Defensive Coordinator Jim O'Neil.  Nobody wants to blow up the coaching staff, but based on the Browns upgrading several positions on defense and currently rated as the 32nd best defense in the NFL out of 32 teams, it's inescapable.  

       So who will the new Coach be?   Usually, the interim Head Coach is someone from the current staff, as there is simply no opportunity to install a new system.   I think Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo is the logical choice.  

     First of all, he's gotten a shabby unit--universally regarded as weak at quarterback and receivers---to perform rather well, or at least not as decrepit as the defense.  Currently, the passing offense is ranked Number 9 in the NFL, believe it or not.  The rushing offense is Ranked Number 25, making us Number 18 overall.  That's not great, but might be good enough to win if the Defense had performed up to expectations.    
     
      The defense on the other hand is so horrific that we could not consider promoting anyone from the unit to the head job.  

    One of the other important items to be determined this year is whether Johnny Manziel should be the starting quarterback next year.  DeFilippo is definitely the right person to make that determination.  Unlike Pettine, he would not feel obligated to play Josh McCown.  It must be said that McCown has upheld his end of the bargain so far, generating above average quaterback play despite a largely lackluster career.  But because of his age he is not likely to be a viable "quarterback of the future."  If we were in contention that would be one thing, but we are not.

    

Both McCown and Manziel have flourished under DeFilippo's system.   No one has flourished under O'Neil's defense however. Absolutely no one.  

   DeFilippo is very young, only 37, and largely unknown. Nevertheless he has experience guiding Mark Sanchez in his rookie year with the Jets, when they went to the AFC title game; and he also worked with Derek Carr for the Raiders last year.   Thus he is very well respected as a tutor for quarterbacks.  We have very limited data to go on, but so far the play calling for the untalented offense has been reasonably productive.  Maybe the Browns have something here.   Let's give him a shot and see what he can do.  

After Four Games, Wow the Browns Stink!

The Browns are enduring another painful year, with the defense unexpectedly regressing despite six former Pro Bowlers and significant additions up front.  

    Face it, the Browns are horrible, and they are going to have to fire Mike Pettine as coach.  

    We are ranked number 32 out of 32 on Defense, currently giving up 406 yards per game.    31st out of 32 in rush defense.  Once again we can not stop the run.

     We didn't play any major offenses so far:  the Jets, led by recycled veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick; Tennessee Titans with rookie Marcus Mariota calling signals for only his second game in the NFL (hey, I think he'll be a very good if not great player, but not necessarily in his second game), perrenial losers Oakland Raiders, and not to mention the  San Diego Chargers (with three guys out on offensive line).  Correct me if I'm wrong, but these teams are not offensive juggernauts.  

You have to look at the talent level and see it increase and yet our performance is getting worse!  Six guys who have been to a Pro Bowl, and moreover in the offseason, the team added Danny Shelton, Randy Starks, Nate Orchard, Xavier Cooper, and Tramon Williams and  we also are getting back  a healthy John Hughes and Armonty Bryant. 

By comparison, the 1999 team finished last in the NFL with 378 yards per game given up.  The 2015 team is worse than 1999! How can we accept Pettine as the defensive guru, especially as he has Jim ONeil as DC, his lieutenant in Buffalo?   O'Neil and Pettine have coached together for seven years.  Are you kidding? It's beyond terrible.  

"What?  Elliot Kennel says that our stats are worse now than in 1999?  How can that be?"

It's not injuries that are killing us this year, unless you count Joe Haden's broken finger.  

Nobody wants to blow up the management team and start over, but I don't see how you can stay with a defensively minded coach after providing all that talent and seeing the team get so much worse.  It would be one thing if the offense were messing up, given that the conventional wisdom has been that they don't have that much talent at quarterback and wide receiver.  It seems clear enough that there is something fundamentally wrong with the defensive approach.  The team has gone 1-8 after staring out 7-5 last year.  It's just a terrible peformance from a team that has talent.   There seems to me to be no choice but to dismiss the coaches, at least on the defensive side of the ball, and rebuild yet again.  

   

Village Elliot Says the Browns are a 9-7 Team

So how good are the Cleveland Browns?   I think this is the best team we have had since the Browns were re-formed in 1999.   Wins and losses are notoriously hard to predict, but my guess is that we will enjoy a winning season.  Why?

First we have a defensive backfield made up of four Pro-Bowlers in Joe Haden, Tramon Williams, Donte Whitner and Tashaun Gipson.  Plus they have great backups in K'Waun Williams and Pierre Desir.  The worst guy is former first round pick Justin Gilbert who did great at the combine but can not play football.  

Second, the defensive line is significantly improved.  The Browns were a top 10 defense despite being the worst against the run.  They have added Danny Shelton, and former pro bowler Randy Starks, a great veteran who was let go by the Dolphins to make room for N'Damukong Suh. On top of this, the Browns are getting back players who were injured last year (John Hughes, Armonty Bryant) and rookie Xavier Cooper was outstanding in pre-season.   The Browns now have excellent depth at DL. 

Linebackers include former Pro Bowler Karlos Dansby, sack man Paul Kruger and up and coming Chris Kirksey.  Scott Solomon is the weakest starter on the right side, but they have quality backups in Barkevious Mingo (sixth overall pick in 2013), Craig Robertson and rookie Nate Orchard.   Again, this is an above average unit with outstanding depth.  

This is likely a top 5 NFL defense.  

As for offense, Browns fans are among the most quarterback-fixated fan base in the NFL.  Veteran knockabout Josh McCown was the 31st best qb in the NFL in 2014 after performing at a high level in limited action in 2013 with the Bears.  The story of McCown is that he is a pretty good pocket passer if the line can protect him, but he is not exactly Josh Football when forced out of the pocket.   I think the Browns keep him upright with three Pro Bowl talents on the OL (Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio and Alex Mack) and two established veterans (John Greco and Mitchell Schwartz) with first round pick Cameron Erving not yet able to make the starting lineup.   They still need to add a few more fat kids to the roster, however. 

Joe Thomas, Donte Whitner.

At wide receiver, the Browns do not have star talent, but they do have depth with Dwayne Bowe, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel, Travis Benjamin and  wild card Terrelle Pryor. 

Similarly they have four good but non-glorious tight ends in Gary Barnidge, Jim Dray and Rob Housler and E. J. Bibbs.  Let's try some two and three tight end formations this year, shall we?

Running back appears to be weak, with Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson.  Grouchy sophomore Terrance West appears to be on the trading block.  Malcolm Johnson made the team as a fullback but was not particularly outstanding in pre-season. 

Special teams played surprisingly well after adding Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee.  Returner Travis Benjamin fielded punts much better than last year, and so perhaps he will be better able to use his returning skills in 2015.  Several players returned kickoffs well in pre season, including incumbent returner Marlon Moore, who is also a great coverage guy.  Johnson Bademosi and Jordan Poyer also made it.  Both are outstanding in special teams but below average performers in the defensive backfield.  

If there is a downside, it is definitely playing in the AFC North, which I believe is the Pro equivalent of the SEC.  Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are very tough teams and in fact I think there is a chance that the entire division finishes over .500 this year. So even though I like the Browns this year, I also like Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  The Steelers' defense is most un-Steeler like this year and for that reason I'm predicting that the Browns will finish ahead of Pittsburgh, but that may not be good enough make the playoffs.     

The RG3 Saga...How Not to be a General Manager.

photo credit:  http://brunchpop.tumblr.com/post/65539819445/meme-monday-the-dan-snyder-new-shoes-photo

Has rock star Owner/GM Dan Snyder ruined his team with silly moves involving RG3? 

    Robert Griffin III has lost his starter's job in Washington, underscoring how miserable it is to have an owner as a General Manager.   First,  Dan Snyder gave up three first round draft picks (including what proved to be the second overall pick in 2014) and a second round pick so that he could draft RG3 in 2012.   Many analysts (including me) question whether any player could be worth so many picks.  In fairness, RG3 was a superstar his rookie year, but after knee surgery he never fully rebounded.   He still has the skill to evolve into a pocket passer, and probably he is unfairly blamed for the lack of performance from an untalented offensive line.  But in the area of intangibles, he seems to have alienated his teammates and the coaching staff, and he always manages to say the wrong thing to the press. 

     In the offseason, GM Snyder inexplicably decided to prematurely award RG3 a fifth year on his contract, making it impossible to trade the guy unless he decides to renegotiate.  The $15 M value of that fifth year means that no sane team will trade for him.  It looks as though the Redskins may have to eat that contract if they decide to get rid of RG3 early.   

    Even more absurd, apparently the guaranteed extension only kicks in if  RG3 is injured.  So that essentially means that they will be afraid to play him, now that they have apparently decided he is not the quarterback of the future because if he plays and gets hurt it will cost the team a huge amount of their 2016 salary cap.  

         So perhaps they have gotten themselves in a situation, financially speaking, where it is best not to play him at all, so they can drop him at the end of 2015 and not get penalized.  Yech.  This must be the dumbest contract of all time.   

     Hence, Dan Snyder's love affair with RG3 has cost his team a second round pick, three number one picks including the 2014 second overall, 15 million bucks for the 2016 salary cap, not to mention losing the confidence of the team and the coaching staff with his blunders.   Brilliant!   

Ray Farmer's Weirdest Move This Off Season

I like Ray Farmer, but did not understand why he gave John Hughes an early contract extension.   Why not wait until 2016?  


   I'm a fan of the Browns' GM Ray Farmer who impresses me as a guy always seems to be ahead of his competitors in terms of building a team the right way and manipulating the salary cap in his favor.  However, one move that I did not not understand was the awarding of a contract extension to John Hughes.   

Browns Defensive End John Hughes warmly greets the Cowboy's Tony Romo.  

Hughes played well for the Browns last year, and is a very good player, and I'm happy for him.   But why did the Browns extend his contract a year before it was due?   This is especially odd because Hughes was injured last year and didn't play much, only appearing in five games with three starts. 

The Browns defensive line put in a spectacularly bad performance, getting five sacks from Desmond Bryant and only two sacks from the rest of the team.  

So what is the plan for Hughes?  They are paying him like a starter, but suddenly there is a logjam of talent there:   Desmond Bryant and Xavier Cooper at LDE,  Danny Shelton, Phil Taylor and Ismaily Kitchen at NT, and Randy Starks and  Billy Winn at RDE. Armonty Bryant also appeared to be playing at a high level early in 2015 only to go down with an injury.  The Browns now want him to shift to Right Outside Linebacker, though I'm not sure his his lineman speed translates to linebacker very well.   

Regardless, it looks like Bryant, Shelton and Starks are likely to be first string, so it is odd that the Browns would give a big contract ($14.4 Million over 4 years, with $3.56 Million guaranteed) to a guy who doesn't seem destined for a starting role, and who was already under contract through 2015.   The only reason to do this is if Farmer believes the guy is headed for a breakout year in 2015, and if he is going to continue to be a star player in 2016 and beyond.  That will be very interesting.   

Overall, it bodes well for the Browns that they have a crowd of talent at the position, with Hughes coming back from his injury, and adding Danny Shelton (1st round pick), Xavier Cooper (3rd round)   and former Pro Bowler Randy Starks as a free agent.  

Non-performing Ahtyba Rubin is gone, and Phil Taylor may be on his way out after struggling with injuries last year and generally not performing well since his outstanding rookie campaign in 2011.    

   

Why Cut the Backup Quarterback?

     The Cleveland Browns, like many other historically under-performing teams, love to cut the backup quarterback every year. 

      Weak front office personnel fear public opinion and especially the dreaded "quarterback controversy."  Hence the tendency is to avoid the problem by simply getting rid of the backup, hoping that the new starter will become a superstar. 

     But all too often teams need a backup because the starter gets injured.  In the case of the Browns, a ridiculous number of quarterbacks in the league are former Browns including:

    Brian Hoyer, Houston
    Brandon Weeden, Dallas
    Colt McCoy, Redskins
    Derek Anderson, Panthers 
    Bruce Gradkowski, Steelers
    Josh Johnson, Bengals
    Luke McCown, Saints
    Jason Campbell, free agent. 

    Browns fans won't like me saying this, but we need to take a cue from the Steelers on this issue.   They managed to keep Charlie Batch employed for 8 years.  Though not a superstar, he won  6 games as a starter and lost only three.   That's about the same winning percentage as Ben Roethlisber, by the way.     

 Charley Batch played with the Steelers for 8 years and had a 6-3 record as a starter.  Hey, he was good enough to win!

     Heck, the Browns rarely have a winning record with their starter, never mind the backup.  But in past years they have needed backup quarterbacks after letting the starter get pounded by defensive lines.   Perhaps by now things might be a little more solid with Pro Bowlers Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, as well as up and coming Joel Bitonio and Cameron Erving plus established pros Mitchell Schwartz and John Greco.   Still, you never know when you might need a backup quarterback, so here's hoping they don't jettison Johnny Manziel, Thad Lewis or Connor Shaw.  Assuming Shaw can clear waivers, he would be eligible to return to the practice squad, allowing Thad Lewis to make the 53-man roster.   

     I would like the Browns to go for the best guy available. This means the front office has to be strong enough to endure the criticism that will inevitably result.  Qbs tend to peak after 3-4 years with the same team rather than the 1 year audition that they normally get.