Another Tough Loss, Titans 28 Browns 26

It's getting a bit repetitious.   The Browns are not a good football team right now, but they can play pretty much even up against other not-so-good teams like Tennessee.  

Some takeaways:

i.  Terrelle Pryor was awesome again, all over the field making unbelieveable catches.  An amazing talent.  I was very worried that the Browns were going to lose him, but then I remembered we have the option to franchise him.  Yes he is worth $15 million dollas for  next year.  Definitely.   

ii.  We had some good results from the defensive line, which has started to show up against the run, Emmanuel Ogbah, Carl Nassib and Danny Shelton have been stepping it up. Shelton had a fantastic game, limiting the Titans' Demarco Murray and even sacking Mariota.  We are hurting in the secondary, however, and overall we are still very weak. You can't give up 30 points a week and make a living in the NFL.

iii.  Cam Erving was an impact player again, and not in a positive way.  I was amazed to see a Titans pass rusher put him on his butt by pushing him with one hand.  Amazing. Erving was also in trouble for trash talking to the point where Josh McCown had to help get him off the field to disengage his mouth. Erving missed several blocks and is trying to kill Cody Kessler.  This is not good.  Something is very wrong with the Browns center.  Maybe he's not healthy yet, I don't know.  

iv.  Cody Kessler is performing at a very high level for a rookie.  Yes, Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott are better.   Yes, it's a limited data set, but Kessler is ranked about 16th in QB rating with 87.9.   The team is moving the ball, scoring points and not turning it over.   I'm not sure that we don't have our quarterback.  

Redskins are Decrepit, Browns More So, 31-20

     The Browns are not a very good team.  But they were able to keep pace with another poor team in the Washington Redskins for a while, before turnovers did them in in the second half.  

Matt Jones, 31, was a huge reason why the Browns could not limit the Washington Redskins.  

    Cody Kessler, Isaiah Crowell, Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor stood out for the offense again.  The Browns wound up passing more than they should have, partly due to the situation, but Crowell gained 112 yards on only 15 carries (note:  he should get 20 carries at least if we are fielding a rookie third string quarterback).  

     Kessler is not terrible.  Yes he makes rookie mistakes, holds onto the ball sometimes and things like that.  But he got good yardage and was generally very efficient.  He's very accurate and throws a very catchable ball.  Put it this way, he looked better today than the Patriots' Jacoby Brissett, who was taken ahead of him.   The star rookie qbs are Carson Wentz famously taken with the Browns number two overall pick in Round One, and Dak Prescott, who was taken after Cody.   

   Barnidge and Pryor again made some nice catches for decent yardage, with some help from Duke Johnson coming out of the backfield.  

     Defensively, special kudos to Cam Johnson who rejoined the Browns after being re-signed to replace injured Nate Orchard.   Johnson was terrific getting to Redskins qb Kirk Cousins three times.   But overall, the Browns flopped against the run, as Matt Jones looked like Red Grange, gaining 117 yards on 25 carries, including big yardage in the second half.  In the secondary, Jamar Taylor came up with a big interception, and the Browns also had decent performances from Emmanuel Ogbah, Chris Kirksey and Jordan Poyer.

    New kicker Cody Parkey was two-for-two in field goals after having a bad first game last week.  I think he'll be all right.  

Excruciating Overtime Loss to the Dolphins, 30-24

    An excruciating loss to be sure, but I'm still drinking the Kool-Aid.  This team is improved from last week.  They played exciting football and should have beat Miami. 

    Terrelle Pryor was a superstar today.  He played wide receiver, quarterback and halfback all in the same game and starred at everything he did.  What a player!

Terrelle Pryor was a monster, catching the ball, throwing the ball and running the ball.   

    Very importantly, Cody Kessler looks like a quarterback.  I don't know that he is better than Colt McCoy, but he is okay to be on the team as a backup for now, and maybe next year or the year after he will challenge for the starter's job.  

    So yes it feels horrible that we blew the game.  We had to pick up a new kicker in Cody Parkey on Saturday, and he was not able to perform on Sunday. He missed three ordinary kicks today.   We'll either sign someone new or else this fellow will improve.  He played in the Pro Bowl a few years back, so he may not be terrible.  He needs some reps with the long snapper and the holder, and he will make more of those kicks.  Still, Browns fans have been accustomed to good Special Teams play dating back to the Phil Dawson and Josh Cribbs era, but it may not be the same now.   

    Also on the downside, we still gave up way too many hits on the quarterback and too many sacks.  In the short run, it was excruciating, but I believe in Hue Jackson, and this team is definitely getting better.   

Cody Kessler wasn't great, but for a rookie third stringer, he played very well.  

Pythagorean Win Percentage Calculated from Spread and Over/Under

   I'm sure somebody has made this calculation before, but I couldn't find it on the web, so here is my version of calculating the predicted win percentage of a football game, based on the spread and over/under.   You get the spread and over/under from donbest.com or most gambling sites and sports sites.  

   The idea of Pythagorean win percentage is that if you know how many points a team gives up and how many they score, you can estimate the win percentage.   as follows:

Win pct = (points scored)^2/ [(points scored)^2 + (points allowed)^2]

OK, so the football betting line gives you the Las Vegas estimate (about the best in the world) of  point differential = points scored-points allowed.

And the overunder is the best estimate of 
total points = points scored plus points allowed. 

So,  you can calculate an estimate for points scored =  1/2 *   (overunder  plus spread) . 

An estimate for points allowed is 1/2 (overunder - spread).  


As an example, on Sunday Sept 25, the Miami Dolphins are favered by 7.5  points, with the overunder at 42.5  

Predicted Miami points = 0.5*  (42.5 + 7.5) = 25

Predicted Cleveland points =0.5 * (42.5- 7.5)  = 17.5

Miami estimated win probability =  (25^2)/(25^2 + 17.5^2) = .671

If you could play like thatl all season, that's pretty good.  For example an 11-5 team is .688, 10-6 is  .625.  

By the way, I calculated this just for fun.  It's not intended to be a betting tool.  I'm not a bettor, because I believe that 10% fee takes pretty good care of the bookies, and they are better than us.   

Cleveland Browns: Bad Game, but Improved from Last Week.

  No doubt, this is a bad Cleveland Browns team right now. Mistakes abound, and there were bad plays on both sides of the ball.  It was agonizing to once again give up points to Baltimore, just like last year, while trying to kick an EXTRA POINT.   Wow, that was terrible!  And that three point swing really came back to haunt us at the end, where we were forced to score a touchdown instead of a field goal. 

    We were badly beaten up on the offensive line, which did not protect McCown all afternoon, and got him injured. It looked to me like the left side of our line stayed intact, but there were problems at center, right guard and right tackle. McCown is simply not going to make it through the season with such poor O-Line play.  And on defense, our secondary could not cope with the likes of ancient Steve Smith, who apparently found a fountain of youth against the Browns.  

    We've been used to exceptional special teams play, but that fell apart for us as we could not contain ancient Devin Hester, while we missed a field goal and gave up the huge play on the blocked extra point.  

     But if you step back a bit, you realize that the Browns were at least in this game for a while before blowing it at the end.   We gained yards on the ground, the defensive line had some good stops, McCown completed passes before getting hurt.  Chris Kirksey played well at ILB, Joe Haden and Tramon Williams showed that they would still fight, if not at the same level they played at during their peak.

Corey Coleman hauled in a touchdown pass versus Baltimore.

     As an amateur General Manager, I was interested to see that several Browns castaways did well, with Karlos Dansby starting for the Bengals, and Craig Robertson leading the Saints in tackles.  Teammate Paul Kruger recovered a fumble for the Saints as well.  Travis Benjamin scored for the Chargers, and Willie Snead scored another for the Saints. Fozzy Whitaker could not make the Browns 53-man roster, but there he was gaining 100 yards for the Carolina Panthers.  Amazing.  Tashaun Gipson is starting for Jacksonville; and Mitchell Schwartz is getting it done for the Kansas City Chiefs, and Barkevious Mingo is playing for New England, and Johnson Bademosi is playing special teams in Detroit and Justin Gilbert is in Pittsburgh.  I'm not sure that we have done a good job at evaluating veteran talent, as a lot of guys we didn't want are playing well elsewhere.  

     I think if McCown is banged up, the Browns need to promote Kevin Hogan to the 53 man roster, to prevent some other team from picking him up.  Either that or we need to sign a veteran.  It's very forseeable that Josh's injuries, plus our relectance to passblock, is going to limit Josh's longevity as the Browns' starter.   Looks like the Patriots are going to have to start a third string quarterback, and the Browns may be not far behind.   

Is Cody Kessler ready to start?  We may soon find out. 

    

Pump the Brakes on RG3 and the Browns

     Last week was a very bad game for Sashi Brown and Browns management.  After going on record on their belief that Carson Wentz would never become a top 20 NFL quarterback, Wentz and the Eagles beat up on the Browns.  Worse, Robert Griffin III had a terrible game and seriously injured his shoulder, making a bad decision and landing awkwardly on his left elbow (never try to break your fall by sticking your elbow out, you Pop Warner quarterbacks).  

After a rough week, Josh McCown tries to right the ship.  

      ESPN commentators are falling all over themselves predicting that RG3 is through, after one game.  

      Oh, come on!  Who could imagine that a quarterback would peak in his first game with a new team? 

     Usually it takes a veteran qb several games to make the adjustments needed to excel with a new team.  Quarterbacks are almost always better in their second year with the same coach and same team, and especially if the guy is a rookie.   

     In that sense, RG3 was an exception, having his best year as a rookie.   But normally we would expect a quarterback to improve over the course of his first year, and by the second year perhaps RG3 might be in the top 20.   

    It's unlikely that the Browns will be in contention when RG3 comes back in late November or December, either with Josh McCown or Cody Kessler.   Thus more than likely it will behoove the Browns to find out if RG3 can play effectively.      

     In the off-season, the Browns will have the opportunity to draft someone, and that would probably be a good idea even if McCown and RG3 both have good years.   Both McCown and RG3 are injury-prone, and thus there is no reason not to have a young talented quarterback on the team if one is available in the NFL draft next year.  It wouldn't be a disaster if one of the veterans starts the 2017 season as first string.   

Is Cody Kessler going to be a starting quarterback?

     On the other hand, the Browns already have a developmental quarterback in Cody Kessler, taken in the third round.  Normally a third round pick would not start in his first year, but maybe by year two or three he would be expected to challenge for a starting job.  Hence, my thought is that if the Browns don't draft a guy in the first round, they will probably continue to groom Cody Kessler.  That would surprise many Browns Backers, as we have pretty much got our heart set on a first round draft pick as the only viable quarterback option.  On the other hand Coach Hue Jackson believes in Kessler.   Would he let Kessler battle for a first string job next preseason? If so, they may not really want a first round quarterback.   That's hard to believe based on one bad game, but a lot can happen in the course of a year.   Let's watch and see. 

Browns Crushed by Sure Fire Hall of Famer Carson Wentz and the Eagles.

Carson Wentz was a superstar in his frist NFL game, throwing for 278 yards and a quarterback rating of 101.0.   Sashi Brown, please explain again why he was considered not good enough for our team?

Another NFL opening day, and another crushing defeat by the Browns, 29-10, this time at the hands of their longtime nemesis, the  Philadelphia Eagles. 

It wasn't just losing, it was the way they lost.  They traded away signing rights for Carson Wentz, the kid from South Dakota State who didn't even play in NCAA Division 1.  After only 1 game in a preseason shortened by injury, he comes out and looks like Joe Montana.  Honestly, the kid was amazingly accurate.  

The Browns front office reportedly did not regard Wentz as a top tier prospect, and accordingly traded him away  (see for example cle 247 sports ). And then, being totally unprofessional, they bragged about it to ESPN, saying that Wentz will never be a top 20 quarterback.  Well guys, he's top 20 now, after one game.  The right answer would have been to say that we think the world of Carson, but you have to give up something good to get something good, blah blah blah.  Now you look like idiots.  Well, get used to it.  

So if Wentz is a really good quarterback, what does that say about management?  If he stinks, what does it say about our defense?   No doubt we vaulted him to the top echelon of NFL quarterbacks for one game.  

Were there some good things from the Browns point of view? Sure there were.  For one thing, they were better against the run, holding Philadelphia to 3.9 yards per  carry.  Cam Erving was horrific, hiking the ball over RG3's head and out of the end zone, resulting in a safety.  But on other plays he was not overmatched like he had been in preseason.  

The Browns gained 5.7 yards per carry on the ground, which is outstanding.  We were not terrible on offense.   We were terrible at pass defense, and also gave up acres of land on special teams.  We are going to miss special teams veterans like Justin Gilbert, Marlon Moore, and Barkevious Mingo.  

Why do we have Tramon Williams returning punts?  After drafting all those kids, is he really the best there as at punt returns?  He may not longer be a top cornerback, but on this team he is a key veteran.  Do we really want to risk a veteran defensive back on punt returns?  Hopefully we'll start to work in a young player back there in the near future.      



  

The Browns Look Like a Four Win Team

     Man, I feel great about football season coming up.  I love football, I follow college, high school, semipro and pro football and my favorite team is the Cleveland Browns.   I will go to a football game anytime, anywhere.   I just think it's the hardest and most complex game in the world, and these NFL guys are the most amazing athletes in the world.  

     Now one of our traditions is that we try to guess how many games the Browns will win.  If I knew the answer I would be setting the odds in Las Vegas, but here goes.  

Gary Barnidge is one of the few guys we have left who has been to the Pro Bowl.  

    I feel like the Browns have a great Coach in Hue Jackson, a great Defensive Coordinator in Ray Horton (who I wanted to be the Head Coach, figuring Hue would not be available), and a front office that is Harvard trained in economics rather than flying by the seat of their pants.  

     But we really gouged the team this year, getting rid of an absurd number of talented players.   A partial list  is at the end of the article. 

     Not all of the players are good, but most of them can actually play and contribute to a winning team.  They will be replaced by young guys, many of whom are late round draft picks.   And yeah we added a few guys in free agency, such as Robert Griffin III.  But the talent we lost probably exceeds the talent level of the incoming rookie class.  

       So even if we have a better coached team, losing this many players is impossible to overcome.  We're just going to get hammered this year.  We are not likely to be much better than last year's team which went 3-13.   But our offense last year was respectable through the air with over 4000 yards passing, believe it or not.  I think the offense may hold its own again this year, with RG3 having a comeback year but running for his life with a weak offensive line blocking for him.  

     On defense, we just lost too many good players on the line, linebackers and in the secondary.  I think we will be one of the lowest ranked defenses, and four that reason we will have to struggle to reach four wins for the year.
 

Pro Bowler Alex Mack

Pro Bowler Tashaun Gipson
Former Pro Bowler Andy Lee

Former Pro Bowler Karlos Dansby

Former Pro Bowler Randy Starks
Former Pro Bowler Donte Whitner

Pro Bowl Alternate Travis Benjamin

Pro Bowl Alternate Johnson Bademosi

Starter Mitchell Schwartz

Starter Paul Kruger

Starter Brian Hartline

Starter Desmond Bryant (injured)

Starter (9 games) Craig Robertson

Starter (10 games) Jim Dray

First Round Pick Barkevious Mingo

First Round Pick John Manziel

First Round Pick Justin Gilbert

Browns Lose to Packers, 17-11

  It's just an exibition game, but there is a lot to be excited about and a lot of work to be done.  The Packers played with second and third stringers on offense, with  superstar Aaron Rodgers and his backup quarterback Brent Hundley both sitting out.  Receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb also did not play. So the Browns should have looked better on defense.  

Photo Credit:  http://packerstalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/callahan1-640x480.jpg  .   Emmanuel Ogbah and Xavier Cooper close in on the Packers' quarterback, Joe Callahan. 

   First the positive;  DE Carl Nassib and OLB Emmanuel Ogbah both looked very good, both against the run and in rushing the passer.  I don't see any reason why they can't both start.  
    Jamie Meder was also very good and generated instant energy when he was on the field.  I think he should definitely start. 
    In the defensive backfield, Jamar Taylor made some good plays and established good coverages, although he also looked bad on a missed tackle.  

On offense, Raheem Mostert showed some breakaway capability, though he also committed a fumble on punt return. I also thought that Terrell Watson looks like he should be a good running back, catching some balls out of the backfield and running hard for short yardage. Terrelle Pryor caught a deep ball from RG3 early on.  He beat his man in one-on-one. Duke Johnson had a good run with his only touch of the day.  Josh  McCown had a big play called back.  But otherwise the Browns were pretty much shut down by the Packers, gaining only 172 total yards to the Pack's 320. Ouch.  

I'm not concerned about RG3's interception on what appears to have been a busted play.  The kid still has the cannon for an arm and is still very mobile.  He will have to be, as the Browns really don't block much on the offensive line.   In particular, Cameron Erving whiffed badly on some of his assignments, which led to a hit on the quarterback, and another time forced RG3 to throw the ball away immediately. Erving had a terrible game.  On the other hand, I saw him sustain a few blocks and dominate his opponent, so maybe there is hope for the kid.  Not ready to give up on him--yet. But he is still very very raw, especially for someone who fancies himself a master of  all five OL positions. 

     The Browns Defense still gave up plenty of yards on the ground.  In particular, Danny Shelton looked tired and he looked beat, and he could not stop the run.  The defense played at a higher energy level when he was on the bench.

    The most depressing stat is that the Browns only caught 11 balls total yesterday.   From the wide receivers, Pryor had two catches, recycled undrafted Rannell Hall had two and Rashard Higgins had one.  That's it.  A very dismal showing.
  
   I miss Brian Hartline.  Hartline is old and slow by NFL standards, but he is at least a professional wide receiver.  I don't know about the Browns' kiddie corps at wide receiver.

   Your opinion is certainly as good as mine, but if I were coaching the team I would get more first string practice reps for Carl Nassib DE, Jamie Meder NT,  Emmanuel Ogbah, OLB, and Mike Matthews C.   

Go In Peace, Kevin Durant

      As a Cleveland fan, I was dismayed that Kevin Durant has decided to join a supremely talented Golden State Team. But in my heart I am totally okay with Kevin doing what he thinks is best for himself.     

        Kevin's decision may not serve the majority of the fans, but that does not make it his fault that the system is designed that way.  

       Pro sports have had to evolve as a business to suit the needs of the players, owners and fans.   I didn't like it when LeBron left Cleveland, and I'm sure Miami fans didn't like it when he returned to Cleveland.  But that and a thousand other incidents  concerning player movement is not the fault of Kevin Durant, and it doesn't get fixed by Kevin Durant making some decision that the fans want (namely, we all want Kevin Durant on OUR team!!).  

     Kevin didn't create the system, so he has to make the decision at this point in time is the best overall for himself, his family and friends.   It's not easy to make that decision, and it's not clear that he made the best decision.  But it is his decision, and it should be respected.  

     I don't agree with the sportswriters who think KD needs to be guided by some higher form of morality that only sportswriters can discern.   It's his right, and he's exercising his right.  This is the way the system is designed to work.  

     If you don't like it you can change it in the future.  And probably it will be improved in the future, but that doesn't mean the present system is Kevin Durant's fault or his responsibility to fix unilaterally. 

It may well be that the current NBA collective agreement has some features in it that don't serve the majority of fans. That is not the fault of Kevin Durant. 

That said, I hate Golden State and hope they lose in the first round of the playoffs next year!   

The Horrible, Awful, Stupid Contract of Joe Haden

   As a Browns fan, I love Joe Haden, but I do not love the contract that the Browns gave him.   Joe has been the mainstay of the secondary for his entire career.  He deserves a big contract as much as anyone on the Browns. 

    I want to be clear that I am not directing a rant at Number 23, but I do think that the Browns and departed GM Ray Farmer erred greatly by giving him "injury guarantees."  

    Specifically, based on my understanding of his deal from sportrac.com and overthecap.com, Joe's contract has some enormous injury guarantees in it.   As of 2016, he gets 4 million dollars of his 2017 salary guaranteed only if he has an injury. 

     Last year it was even worse, with 10 million dollars guaranteed.   My point is that NFL players are very goal oriented and work hard to achieve incentives.   If you give a guy a contract with a bonus for games played or total snaps, there's a good chance that he will be out there to earn his pay.  Conversely, if you tell the guy that he will get 10 million dollars for being injured, there is a good chance that he will find a way to be injured.  

     Especially with injuries like concussions, it is very hard to tell if a player is injured or not.  Hence if a team offers incentives for getting injured, there is a terrific chance that a player will find a way to be injured, and expecting the player to play hurt and risk losing millions of dollars is an unrealistic fantasy.  By playing hurt, I'm not advocating that players damage themselves by playing with a serious injury, but guys can play when they are less than 100% and still contribute to the team.   But for a situation in which a sub-par performance can risk getting a guy cut, versus having guaranteed money for being injured, I'm sure that a smart player will get the money.  If failing a concussion protocol results in millions of dollars of extra guarantees, I think the player owes it to his family to not try very hard to pass, put it that way.  This is a terrible position that the team puts the player in.  Nobody wants the player to give less than 100%, but that's what the contract leads the player to do.   That is the fault of Browns management and specifically Ray Farmer.  

     

     No NFL team, should ever ever offer injury guarantees or incentives.  That is just stupid beyond belief.  If you're going to do that, you might as well just give a full guarantee that allows the player to give 100% with worrying about the economics.  

    In this case, I think the Browns should just go ahead and fully guarantee the injury money. Either than or cut him now and absorb a huge salary cap penalty. But do not offer incentives for failing the concussion protocol.  Don't put the player in the position of compromising his integrity in order to cash in on guaranteed injury money.  The current contract penalizes the Browns first of all, and dis-incentivizes the player from helping the team.  In short, it is a horrible, awful, stupid contract and the Browns should never have entered into it under those conditions.

   

How to Win AFTER the Draft--Undrafted Free Agents

    It ain't over.  The drafting is complete, and the Browns have 15 bright new faces to compete for jobs.  But it is not enough.  

      There are a number of undrafted free agents that need to be signed and brought to the team.  The Browns need to OUTBID the other teams and bring MORE candidates and BETTER candidates than any other NFL team!  I think the Browns may decide to invest more in these low-budget players than other teams.

       You may think that undrafted free agents are a mere formality, and that you just go through the motions and bring some ultra-long shot guys to camp.  But that is not so.

  

     Consider guys in recent years like K'Waun Williams, Isaiah Crowell, Connor Shaw, Taylor Gabriel, Jamie Meder, Dylan Winn...these guys are not necessarily superstars but they are good enough to help the team win.  And once in a while you find someone like Tony Romo, James Harrison, Kurt Warner, or London Fletcher.   They don't just show up, they are scouted, recruited and signed to rookie contracts.   Teams like the Browns can be very successful because players want to be successful in the NFL and they may feel that a team like Cleveland would give them a better chance than, say, New  England or Seattle. 

     So there is a natural advantage for lower echelon teams in recruiting undrafted free agents, and previously cut players (that, is guys who are close to the NFL minimum).  I think if I were an analytics-oriented GM like Sashi Brown, I might conclude that the undrafted free agents, waiver wire guys and previously cut players are actually very comparable to the regular free agents, and accordingly I would want to outhustle the other teams and sign more of these guys.  

     Undrafted free agents and low budget players waived or cut by other teams are essentially like 8th round draft picks.  It's not the same as a first round pick where most every player has some level of success.  With undrafted rookies and You have to go through several players to find 1 good one.  As I point out below, it doesn't take much to outbid the other teams for these guys.  
 Let's compare the expensive free agents as well as undrafted free agents and waiver wire guys:

Best regular free agents:  Gary Barnidge, Paul Kruger, Josh McCown, Brian Hartline, Desmond Bryant, Robert Griffin III, Tramon Williams, Andrew Hawkins. 

Gary Barnidge was one of the best free agent aquisitions the Browns have made.  

 

Isaiah Crowell was one of the better Undrafted Free Agents for the Browns. 

Best undrafted free agents:  Isaih Crowell, K'Waun Williams, Jamie Meder, Scott Solomon, Taylor Gabriel, Connor Shaw, 

Undrafted K'Waun Williams is good enough to start at Cornerback. 

     Previously cut players and waiver wire guys:  under 1 million:  Jordan Poyer, Marlon Moore, Austin Pasztor. Tank Carder.

     On balance, the regular free agents are better than the low cost guys, but you have to admit it's close.  And the free agents cost big money, where as the undrafted guys and pickups do not.  
    
     It would be possible to triple your investment in undrafted free agents and signing previously cut players, by offering just a bit of a bonus to come to camp.   Under current rules, NFL teams are limited to 90 players on the off-season roster, meaning that the Browns can offer up to about 10 additional contracts this year.  They are allowed to offer guaranteed money to come to camp, and with even a small bonus of like $50K, I bet most of them would accept.  If you have to cut most of them, it would result in a loss of $5 M against the current yearly salary cap.  But you would probably come away with some valuable players, including a few starters. That might make Mr. Haslam feel better about blowing a few million of salary cap money.  

     Wouldn't that be better than blowing the same amount of money on a "name" player who can't actually play, like the inimitable Dwayne Bowe?  That guy cost the Browns about 11 million dollars by himself.     

      So that's what I think the Browns might do this off-season:  outhustle and outspend the competition on Undrafted College Free Agents and other low budget free agents.  They may find this is a better investment than offering big bucks to overrated veteran free agents.   

Browns Trivia: Draft History for Browns QB's of the past.

Otto Graham was signed by Cleveland as a free agent for the new All America Conference. He was drafted fourth overall by the NFL Detroit Lions but did not sign with them.

Otto Graham was the most dominant quarterback in NFL history.  Maybe Browns fans are still spoiled by having him win championship after championship.  

Frank Ryan was the last qb to win a World Championship with the Browns. He was drafted in the fifth round by the LA Rams and was traded to Cleveland.

Dr. Frank Ryan was the NFL's only PhD Mathematician, and he helped Paul Brown win the World Championship in 1964.

Bill Nelson was drafted in the 10th round by the Steelers in 1963, and eventually traded to Cleveland where he become the starter in 1968. Nelson was the consumate game manager, with no mobility, only an average arm, but a ton of guts and the ability to win football games. But he couldn't throw the deep ball to Paul Warfield, so the Browns solved that problem by trading Warfield for a new quarterback.

Bill Nelson won with guts more than athletic ability.

The Browns traded up for Mike Phipps, giving up Hall of Famer Warfield and All Pro halfback Ron Johnson. Art Modell acted as his own GM in that gem of a trade.

Brian Sipe was drafted in the 13th round in 1972. He spent two years on the Reserve Squad and didn't become the starter until 1976.

Could a 13th round pick possibly be better than top-drafted Mike Phipps?  Um, yes, actually.  

The Browns traded up for Bernie Kosar, taking him in the first round of the supplemental draft. He cost two number 1's, a 3rd and a 6th.

Bernie Kosar was the last brilliant quarterback that the Browns had, with the possible exception of the one year Tim Couch led the Browns to the playoffs, only to be inexplicably forgotten by most fans.

Tim Couch was drafted first overall, as the Browns turned down a megadeal from New Orleans. Counting that missed opportunity, the Browns have expended 17 draft picks in the last 17 years, none of whom have been particularly good.

Browns Win the Draft Trade with the Eagles

     It feels great knowing that there is a team that is far dumber than the Browns.  Take a bow, Mr. Howie Roseman on behalf of the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles move up in this year's draft and get a fourth round pick next year.  The cost is their 1st, 3rd and 4th round pick this year; their 1st round pick in 2017 and their second round pick next year.  

   The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles are genuinely insane, will have to lose a ton of games, and will give the Browns excellent draft position.  How can they sign two free agent quarterbacks--Sam Bradford at $18 M/year for two years, and Chase Daniel at $7M/year for three years--and then go out and draft another quarterback??  Sam has a terrific arm, but has been riddled with injuries since he was in college.  And Chase Daniel has had two  (that's TWO) NFL starts and has a contract that is bigger than RG3 and Josh McCown.  Chase Daniel was undrafted and undersized, kind of like Connor Shaw of the Browns. And he gets a huge contract.  

     It would be possible to trade Bradford, but it would cost $9.5 Million to the Eagles salary cap in 2016.  The new team would not have to pay Sam's bonus, just the unguaranteed salary of $7 M this year, with an option of 2017 of $13 M plus a $4M roster bonus or $17 M total. Maybe that is not totally crazy, and they might get a draft pick back.  I bet the Broncos might offer a 3rd or 4th round pick for him.  Daniel, on the other hand, is a totally insane singing that I cannot explain.  

It's not the age, it's the mileage. For whatever reason, Sam Bradford has been banged up more than any other quarterback in the league.  It would be very tough to trade him, since he has a new $36 M two year deal. 

    The fundamental problem, however, is that the quarterbacks are over-rated. Jared Goff has good height at 6'4", but at 215 he is only 8 pounds heavier than Johnny Manziel, who was famously ridiculed for being undersized.  Goff is not fast, at 4.82 seconds.   Normally he should be downgraded to the mid first round for that, although he did put up great numbers at Cal.  

      Wentz was more of a Combine Wonder than Goff, weighing in at 235 pounds but a shade faster than Goff at 4.77.  Wentz is said to have a slightly better arm, but posted up good-not-great numbers at North Dakota State.   I'm thinking more along the lines of Alex Smith, a very good first round draft pick, but perhaps not necessarily worth the second overall pick.  

      It was smart to trade out of that situation, and the Eagles were stupid to trade in.  

I believe the Moneyball guys won this trade, hands down.  

The Village Elliot's Predictions for the NFL Draft 2016

I'm back, despite whiffing on key predictions on the NFL Draft last year, I'm back for more.  

1.  The Browns will not draft a quarterback at #2 overall. Instead they will trade down.  The Browns are committed to use "analytics" in the draft to make the best investments possible.  To me this means that they are going to draft the best players available.   Wentz, Goff and Lynch are all pretty good prospects, but none are in the class of Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  So we'll either draft another position or trade the #2 overall pick for about three picks.  Browns fans will not like this, as they tend to view the three veterans (RG3, McCown and Davis) as a disaster with only the top rookie as a Messiah (though there is no agreement which rookie is best).    

2.  We will stockpile some assets for 2017.   I think if other teams want to move up in 2016 the Browns will help them do it.   

3. Travis Henry will be drafted in the first round.  No, he doesn't look like a classic tailback, and today's NFL de-emphasizes running backs but he is bigger stronger and faster than anyone else and I think he is an All-Pro. 

Derrick Henry is a beast.  He's huge, fast and doesn't fumble.  I think he's a first round talent.  

4.   LaQuon Treadwell will not be the first wide receiver taken, mainly because he is a bit slow.  Still a very good player, I look for him to go about 25th overall and maybe later.  This is not a great draft for wide receivers. 

5.  It is a great draft for cornerbacks.   I look for about four or five of them to be drafted in the first round, led by Jalen Ramsey, who may be the top guy overall.  

3.  The Browns will draft a quarterback of the future, but probably in round 2 or 3.   Someone like Connor Cook, Cardale Jones or Kevin Hogan might be available. 

4.  The Browns will draft a cornerback, because there are several good ones and the Browns need help there.  

5.  The Browns will be very aggressive after the draft in signing undrafted rookies.   Elsewhere in this blog I make the claim that undrafted rookies may be a better source of talent than the veteran Free Agent pool.  You play it differently however.  With undrafted rookies you have to take about ten of them to find one good player.  I think they may spend a little salary cap money on (small) bonuses for undrafted rookies.