The Horrible, Awful, Stupid Contract of Joe Haden

   As a Browns fan, I love Joe Haden, but I do not love the contract that the Browns gave him.   Joe has been the mainstay of the secondary for his entire career.  He deserves a big contract as much as anyone on the Browns. 

    I want to be clear that I am not directing a rant at Number 23, but I do think that the Browns and departed GM Ray Farmer erred greatly by giving him "injury guarantees."  

    Specifically, based on my understanding of his deal from sportrac.com and overthecap.com, Joe's contract has some enormous injury guarantees in it.   As of 2016, he gets 4 million dollars of his 2017 salary guaranteed only if he has an injury. 

     Last year it was even worse, with 10 million dollars guaranteed.   My point is that NFL players are very goal oriented and work hard to achieve incentives.   If you give a guy a contract with a bonus for games played or total snaps, there's a good chance that he will be out there to earn his pay.  Conversely, if you tell the guy that he will get 10 million dollars for being injured, there is a good chance that he will find a way to be injured.  

     Especially with injuries like concussions, it is very hard to tell if a player is injured or not.  Hence if a team offers incentives for getting injured, there is a terrific chance that a player will find a way to be injured, and expecting the player to play hurt and risk losing millions of dollars is an unrealistic fantasy.  By playing hurt, I'm not advocating that players damage themselves by playing with a serious injury, but guys can play when they are less than 100% and still contribute to the team.   But for a situation in which a sub-par performance can risk getting a guy cut, versus having guaranteed money for being injured, I'm sure that a smart player will get the money.  If failing a concussion protocol results in millions of dollars of extra guarantees, I think the player owes it to his family to not try very hard to pass, put it that way.  This is a terrible position that the team puts the player in.  Nobody wants the player to give less than 100%, but that's what the contract leads the player to do.   That is the fault of Browns management and specifically Ray Farmer.  

     

     No NFL team, should ever ever offer injury guarantees or incentives.  That is just stupid beyond belief.  If you're going to do that, you might as well just give a full guarantee that allows the player to give 100% with worrying about the economics.  

    In this case, I think the Browns should just go ahead and fully guarantee the injury money. Either than or cut him now and absorb a huge salary cap penalty. But do not offer incentives for failing the concussion protocol.  Don't put the player in the position of compromising his integrity in order to cash in on guaranteed injury money.  The current contract penalizes the Browns first of all, and dis-incentivizes the player from helping the team.  In short, it is a horrible, awful, stupid contract and the Browns should never have entered into it under those conditions.

   

How to Win AFTER the Draft--Undrafted Free Agents

    It ain't over.  The drafting is complete, and the Browns have 15 bright new faces to compete for jobs.  But it is not enough.  

      There are a number of undrafted free agents that need to be signed and brought to the team.  The Browns need to OUTBID the other teams and bring MORE candidates and BETTER candidates than any other NFL team!  I think the Browns may decide to invest more in these low-budget players than other teams.

       You may think that undrafted free agents are a mere formality, and that you just go through the motions and bring some ultra-long shot guys to camp.  But that is not so.

  

     Consider guys in recent years like K'Waun Williams, Isaiah Crowell, Connor Shaw, Taylor Gabriel, Jamie Meder, Dylan Winn...these guys are not necessarily superstars but they are good enough to help the team win.  And once in a while you find someone like Tony Romo, James Harrison, Kurt Warner, or London Fletcher.   They don't just show up, they are scouted, recruited and signed to rookie contracts.   Teams like the Browns can be very successful because players want to be successful in the NFL and they may feel that a team like Cleveland would give them a better chance than, say, New  England or Seattle. 

     So there is a natural advantage for lower echelon teams in recruiting undrafted free agents, and previously cut players (that, is guys who are close to the NFL minimum).  I think if I were an analytics-oriented GM like Sashi Brown, I might conclude that the undrafted free agents, waiver wire guys and previously cut players are actually very comparable to the regular free agents, and accordingly I would want to outhustle the other teams and sign more of these guys.  

     Undrafted free agents and low budget players waived or cut by other teams are essentially like 8th round draft picks.  It's not the same as a first round pick where most every player has some level of success.  With undrafted rookies and You have to go through several players to find 1 good one.  As I point out below, it doesn't take much to outbid the other teams for these guys.  
 Let's compare the expensive free agents as well as undrafted free agents and waiver wire guys:

Best regular free agents:  Gary Barnidge, Paul Kruger, Josh McCown, Brian Hartline, Desmond Bryant, Robert Griffin III, Tramon Williams, Andrew Hawkins. 

Gary Barnidge was one of the best free agent aquisitions the Browns have made.  

 

Isaiah Crowell was one of the better Undrafted Free Agents for the Browns. 

Best undrafted free agents:  Isaih Crowell, K'Waun Williams, Jamie Meder, Scott Solomon, Taylor Gabriel, Connor Shaw, 

Undrafted K'Waun Williams is good enough to start at Cornerback. 

     Previously cut players and waiver wire guys:  under 1 million:  Jordan Poyer, Marlon Moore, Austin Pasztor. Tank Carder.

     On balance, the regular free agents are better than the low cost guys, but you have to admit it's close.  And the free agents cost big money, where as the undrafted guys and pickups do not.  
    
     It would be possible to triple your investment in undrafted free agents and signing previously cut players, by offering just a bit of a bonus to come to camp.   Under current rules, NFL teams are limited to 90 players on the off-season roster, meaning that the Browns can offer up to about 10 additional contracts this year.  They are allowed to offer guaranteed money to come to camp, and with even a small bonus of like $50K, I bet most of them would accept.  If you have to cut most of them, it would result in a loss of $5 M against the current yearly salary cap.  But you would probably come away with some valuable players, including a few starters. That might make Mr. Haslam feel better about blowing a few million of salary cap money.  

     Wouldn't that be better than blowing the same amount of money on a "name" player who can't actually play, like the inimitable Dwayne Bowe?  That guy cost the Browns about 11 million dollars by himself.     

      So that's what I think the Browns might do this off-season:  outhustle and outspend the competition on Undrafted College Free Agents and other low budget free agents.  They may find this is a better investment than offering big bucks to overrated veteran free agents.   

Browns Trivia: Draft History for Browns QB's of the past.

Otto Graham was signed by Cleveland as a free agent for the new All America Conference. He was drafted fourth overall by the NFL Detroit Lions but did not sign with them.

Otto Graham was the most dominant quarterback in NFL history.  Maybe Browns fans are still spoiled by having him win championship after championship.  

Frank Ryan was the last qb to win a World Championship with the Browns. He was drafted in the fifth round by the LA Rams and was traded to Cleveland.

Dr. Frank Ryan was the NFL's only PhD Mathematician, and he helped Paul Brown win the World Championship in 1964.

Bill Nelson was drafted in the 10th round by the Steelers in 1963, and eventually traded to Cleveland where he become the starter in 1968. Nelson was the consumate game manager, with no mobility, only an average arm, but a ton of guts and the ability to win football games. But he couldn't throw the deep ball to Paul Warfield, so the Browns solved that problem by trading Warfield for a new quarterback.

Bill Nelson won with guts more than athletic ability.

The Browns traded up for Mike Phipps, giving up Hall of Famer Warfield and All Pro halfback Ron Johnson. Art Modell acted as his own GM in that gem of a trade.

Brian Sipe was drafted in the 13th round in 1972. He spent two years on the Reserve Squad and didn't become the starter until 1976.

Could a 13th round pick possibly be better than top-drafted Mike Phipps?  Um, yes, actually.  

The Browns traded up for Bernie Kosar, taking him in the first round of the supplemental draft. He cost two number 1's, a 3rd and a 6th.

Bernie Kosar was the last brilliant quarterback that the Browns had, with the possible exception of the one year Tim Couch led the Browns to the playoffs, only to be inexplicably forgotten by most fans.

Tim Couch was drafted first overall, as the Browns turned down a megadeal from New Orleans. Counting that missed opportunity, the Browns have expended 17 draft picks in the last 17 years, none of whom have been particularly good.

Browns Win the Draft Trade with the Eagles

     It feels great knowing that there is a team that is far dumber than the Browns.  Take a bow, Mr. Howie Roseman on behalf of the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles move up in this year's draft and get a fourth round pick next year.  The cost is their 1st, 3rd and 4th round pick this year; their 1st round pick in 2017 and their second round pick next year.  

   The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles are genuinely insane, will have to lose a ton of games, and will give the Browns excellent draft position.  How can they sign two free agent quarterbacks--Sam Bradford at $18 M/year for two years, and Chase Daniel at $7M/year for three years--and then go out and draft another quarterback??  Sam has a terrific arm, but has been riddled with injuries since he was in college.  And Chase Daniel has had two  (that's TWO) NFL starts and has a contract that is bigger than RG3 and Josh McCown.  Chase Daniel was undrafted and undersized, kind of like Connor Shaw of the Browns. And he gets a huge contract.  

     It would be possible to trade Bradford, but it would cost $9.5 Million to the Eagles salary cap in 2016.  The new team would not have to pay Sam's bonus, just the unguaranteed salary of $7 M this year, with an option of 2017 of $13 M plus a $4M roster bonus or $17 M total. Maybe that is not totally crazy, and they might get a draft pick back.  I bet the Broncos might offer a 3rd or 4th round pick for him.  Daniel, on the other hand, is a totally insane singing that I cannot explain.  

It's not the age, it's the mileage. For whatever reason, Sam Bradford has been banged up more than any other quarterback in the league.  It would be very tough to trade him, since he has a new $36 M two year deal. 

    The fundamental problem, however, is that the quarterbacks are over-rated. Jared Goff has good height at 6'4", but at 215 he is only 8 pounds heavier than Johnny Manziel, who was famously ridiculed for being undersized.  Goff is not fast, at 4.82 seconds.   Normally he should be downgraded to the mid first round for that, although he did put up great numbers at Cal.  

      Wentz was more of a Combine Wonder than Goff, weighing in at 235 pounds but a shade faster than Goff at 4.77.  Wentz is said to have a slightly better arm, but posted up good-not-great numbers at North Dakota State.   I'm thinking more along the lines of Alex Smith, a very good first round draft pick, but perhaps not necessarily worth the second overall pick.  

      It was smart to trade out of that situation, and the Eagles were stupid to trade in.  

I believe the Moneyball guys won this trade, hands down.  

The Village Elliot's Predictions for the NFL Draft 2016

I'm back, despite whiffing on key predictions on the NFL Draft last year, I'm back for more.  

1.  The Browns will not draft a quarterback at #2 overall. Instead they will trade down.  The Browns are committed to use "analytics" in the draft to make the best investments possible.  To me this means that they are going to draft the best players available.   Wentz, Goff and Lynch are all pretty good prospects, but none are in the class of Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  So we'll either draft another position or trade the #2 overall pick for about three picks.  Browns fans will not like this, as they tend to view the three veterans (RG3, McCown and Davis) as a disaster with only the top rookie as a Messiah (though there is no agreement which rookie is best).    

2.  We will stockpile some assets for 2017.   I think if other teams want to move up in 2016 the Browns will help them do it.   

3. Travis Henry will be drafted in the first round.  No, he doesn't look like a classic tailback, and today's NFL de-emphasizes running backs but he is bigger stronger and faster than anyone else and I think he is an All-Pro. 

Derrick Henry is a beast.  He's huge, fast and doesn't fumble.  I think he's a first round talent.  

4.   LaQuon Treadwell will not be the first wide receiver taken, mainly because he is a bit slow.  Still a very good player, I look for him to go about 25th overall and maybe later.  This is not a great draft for wide receivers. 

5.  It is a great draft for cornerbacks.   I look for about four or five of them to be drafted in the first round, led by Jalen Ramsey, who may be the top guy overall.  

3.  The Browns will draft a quarterback of the future, but probably in round 2 or 3.   Someone like Connor Cook, Cardale Jones or Kevin Hogan might be available. 

4.  The Browns will draft a cornerback, because there are several good ones and the Browns need help there.  

5.  The Browns will be very aggressive after the draft in signing undrafted rookies.   Elsewhere in this blog I make the claim that undrafted rookies may be a better source of talent than the veteran Free Agent pool.  You play it differently however.  With undrafted rookies you have to take about ten of them to find one good player.  I think they may spend a little salary cap money on (small) bonuses for undrafted rookies.   

Analytics: Is There a Method to the Cleveland Browns' Madness?

Are Undrafted Rookie Free Agents like Isaiah Crowell better than any veteran free agents that the Browns have brought to town?  If so, maybe they should pay for tryouts for more of these guys.  

     Perhaps the Browns simply want to destroy the team.  So far they had four Pro-Bowl calibre players leave via Free Agency, plus solid starter Mitchell Schwartz and part time starter Craig Robertson.  But this was not enough so the Browns just went and CUT guys like defensive starters Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Randy Starks plus partyboy (and part time player) Johnny Manziel.  They have plenty of salary cap space, so perhaps they are just dumb to make these cuts.  

     Or...could it be that the analytics guys believe that rookie Undrafted Rookie Free Agents (URFA), or guys who are fresh out of college but who didn't get drafted, are a better overall investment than veteran Free Agents??   

        That sounds ridiculous on the face of it.  However, consider that bad teams never get a discount in free agency. Teams like the Patriots always get veterans to sign for less because these players are usually hungry to be on a winner. Teams like the Browns always pay more.   

         In the draft, losing teams have an advantage because they choose earlier.  In addition, losing teams also have an advantage with the rookie free agents, because the rookies (and their agents) feel they have a better chance to make it in the NFL with a weaker team.   

         So maybe what the Browns are going to do is offer more and better Undrafted Rookie Free Agent contracts to the rookies, maybe sweetened with a small guarantee, and bring about 20 or 30 of the best guys into camp.  Okay, most of them will be cut, but they hope  to find four or five guys who can play this way.  

          This is similar to the plan of 2013, when the Browns led the NFL in rookie free agent signings, and purged the roster of aging middle tier veterans and free agents such as WR David Nelson and blocking TE Kellen Davis, much to my consternation at that time.  These guys could definitely play as of 2013.   

      But in 2014 and 2015, the Browns splurged on free agents,  gorging themselves on the likes of  The big dollar veteran free agents include DE Desmond Bryant, CB Tramon Williams, ILB Karlos Dansby, S Donte Whitner and QB Josh McCown.  Though these guys can definitely play some ball, probably they are not as good as a group as the guys who were taken as undrafted rookies. 

     Consider that in the past few years, the Browns found undrafted guys like K'Waun Williams, Isaiah Crowell, Taylor Gabriel, E. J. Bibbs, Connor Shaw, Scott Solomon, Jamie Meder, Jordan Poyer and Willie Snead.  Case in point: Snead hauled in 984 yards worth of passes last year, after the Browns cut him in 2014.  Maybe we should be keeping more guys like that rather than pursuing big names like Dwayne "Gluefingers" Bowe?

      Overall, you have to admit that the Undrafted Rookies have been a better source of talent than the veteran free agent signings.   So, perhaps the Browns intend to invest more in Undrafted Rookies and less on veteran free agents.  

After getting rid of guys like Willie Snead, who starred for New Orleans Last Year, Ray Farmer bet his career on Dwayne Bowe to catch passes from Johnny Manziel.  He lost. 

    In other words, maybe the Browns figure Undrafted Rookie Free Agents are a better source of talent than Veteran Free Agents.  If so, the Browns believe they are right and the rest of the NFL is wrong! 

    If I'm right about that, look for the Browns to invite more of them to camp than any other team after the NFL draft, and to lead the NFL in spending on their contracts.  Most of them will be cut at the end of training camp, but based on recent history some of them will be good.  The Browns goal would be to have about five make the team, resulting in about 15 rookies overall.     

Ex-Browns Starring for Other Teams

The Cleveland Browns are terrible and don't have any good players, right?  Well, how come they play well for other teams when they leave?  Here's a list of free agents who have left the Browns and gone on to have good careers elsewhere in the NFL.   By my count, last year there were 16 NFL starters in the league who are no longer are with the Browns, plus an additional four who were first string on special teams.  Seven players made the 2015 Pro Bowl (including alternates).  So it seems there must have been some talent in Cleveland, though in many cases it doesn't blossom till the players leave.  Here are the highlights:  

Ahtyba Rubin now anchors a very tough Seahaks

Defensive Line:

Jabaal Sheard, New England Patriots, DE  had 8 sacks for New England.

Frostee Rucker Arizona Cardinals DE a starter for a premier defense last year

Ahtyba Rubin, Seattle Seahawks, NT   Had a great year for Seattle, another top defense

....meantime, the Browns were worst in the NFL in run defense and couldn't sack the quarterback either. 

Jabaal Sheard couldn't play for Mike Pettine but nailed 8 sacks for Bill Belichick (another former Brown). 

Linebacker

DQwell Jackson, Indianapolis Colts ILB,  led the NFL in tackles last year

Craig Robertson, Free agent ILB, improved significantly for the Browns the past two years.  He started 9 games last year, splitting time with Christian Kirksey. 

Tackling Machine D'Qwell Jackson led the entire NFL in tackles last year.  

Defensive Back

Tashaun Gipson, made the Pro Bowl last year.

T. J. Ward, Denver Broncos made the Pro Bowl and earned a Super Bowl ring.

Mike Adams, Indianapolis Colts, made the Pro Bowl

Buster Skrine started for the New York Jets

Johnson Bademosi, Detroit Lions was a Pro Bowl alternate for special teams last year. 

Tight End

Ben Watson New Orleans Saints, hauled in 74 balls for 825 yards last year. Cleveland couldn't recognize his talent.    

Cameron Jordan, Miami Dolphins, had 35 catches for 386 yards. 

Ben Watson is an under-appreciated star as he proved in 2015 with the Saints.  

Wide Receiver

Travis Benjamin, San Diego Chargers, was a Pro Bowl alternate with a career year last year, with 966 yards.  He also is a stud punt returner. 

Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints, after being cut by the Browns had 984 yards from 69 catches last year. 

Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings was injured and had only 127 yards last year after having 475 in 2014.  10 career starts. 

Miles Austin had 224 yards for Philly, starting only 1 game.
.....if you add up all the receiving yards from ex-Browns, it totals over 4000 yards in 2015.  

Running Back

Dion Lewis, New England Patriots, amassed 622 yards from scrimmage, in a season cut short by injury (6 starts).
Shaun Draughn San Francisco 49ers, gained 527 yards after Cleveland cut him in mid-season.  

Quarterback

Brian Hoyer led the Houston Texas into the playoffs last year despite struggling at times.

Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy, Derek Anderson and Thad Lewis are still in the NFL as backups.  

Johnny Manziel also has recently hit the streets, needless to say.    

Offensive Line

Alex Mack, Atlanta Falcons, made the Pro Bowl last year after a slow start, recovering from a broken leg. 

Mitchell Schwartz, Kansas City Chiefs, never made the Pro Bowl but was close to that level last year. 

Special Teams

Phil Dawson still a reliable kicker for San Francisco.

Spencer Lanning punted for the Chicago Bears last year.  

Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Bucs, still returns punts though he lost his starting running back job.  Fozzie Whitaker, Carolina Panthers, returns kicks and is a situational back.

What Does it Mean to be the "Face of the Franchise?"

Manziel is gone, but Josh McCown is not necessarily the new Face of the Franchise either.  

    If you have fantasies of being an NFL General Manager, this is your time.  The off season is upon us!

    My team, the Cleveland Browns, is in the market for a quarterback again.  Last year we had terrible run defense, and couldn't run the ball effectively either.  The cure for that is always to fire the Coach (check!) and to sign or draft a new quarterback.  

     Browns fans usually figure that the only way to get a good quarterback is to draft one with the first pick in the NFL Draft. This year we may have a shot at the top quarterback unless the Tennessee Titans concoct a massive trade.  So there is much ado about arm strength, 40 yard dash time, INT percentage and so on.  But what about being the "Face of the Franchise?"  

     I think that is very real.  It's about selling tickets and projecting the right image in the media, to be sure.  But the most important aspect is the ability to convince players to play for your team.  

    Supposing there is an All-Pro free agent wide receiver.  Do you suppose he will gladly come to a team that has Johnny Manziel for a quarterback?  Well, if the receiver isn't convinced that Johnny is going to be on the field, there is not much point in coming to play for Cleveland.  

     You need to have a quarterback that people can't wait to play for, based on the belief that he will be successful and make other people successful around him. And so off the field issues matter.  Any one event is not decisive, but players need to feel confident that the quarterback is stable, and that the franchise is stable and going to contend.   

       In the case of Manziel, even if he is exonerated completely and never has a drinking issue again this off season, there is zero chance we can convince players to choose our team.   So he's out, despite playing well on the field last year.  

      It's not just moral character.  I would say a guy like Sam Bradford, a tremendous talent who has had a history of injury trouble, might also be a poor Face of the Franchise.  It's not his fault, but if his injury history casts doubt as to whether he will be available or not, then his team is just not able to recruit and retain free agent players.  Conversely, Cam Newton gets a lot of press for minor misbehavior, but players know they are going to move the football, and they will definitely go to Carolina to play.  

    The best guys are still guys like Brady, Rodgers and Eli Manning; very stable individuals who throw for yards and touchdowns.          

    With the Browns, in my opinion  Hue Jackson becomes the face of the franchise.  I believe he has a lot of respect around the league and players will play for him.  As for McCown, despite playing at a very high level and winning great respect around the league, he will be 37 next year, and a top young player might not be willing to hitch his wagon to that horse.
     The Browns need to have a talented young quarterback, if not for 2016 then certainly 2017 and beyond.  We'll see what they come up with.  

Hue Jackson is the Face of the Franchise right now, rather than any particular player.   

     

Ifo Ekpre Olomu

If Ekpre Olomu was a sensational cornerback for Oregon, but suffered a horrific knee injury.  

Ifo Ekpre Olomu is by all accounts a hard-working solid individual that everyone would like to root for, a great kid.  He was a terrific cornerback at Oregon, and was projected as a first or second round draft pick, maybe even the top cornerback in the draft. 

That dream fell apart when he suffered a horrific knee injury in practice before the National Championship game against Ohio State.  I'm not a a medical authority, but based on what I've read, he suffered a knee joint dislocation. This is a severe injury that as far as I can find out no player has ever recovered from to play pro sports.   

This is NOT a dislocated kneecap.  This is a case in which the lower leg bones (tibia and fibula) have been separated from  the femur (thigh bone) as shown in the figure below.

Knee joint dislocation.  

Fortunately the Oregon Ducks wisely took out an insurance policy for him, and so he is going to be all right financially. But he still wanted to play football.  He received that opportunity when the Browns drafted him in the seventh round. 

The buzz among fans is that the Browns got a steal.  My suspicion is that Ray Farmer simply did not understand the extent of his injury.  The Browns did not do their homework, made a stupid pick.  At least the Browns could have taken a kicker as several were available and they were looking for one.

I hope that Ifo can beat the odds through determination and hard work.   If he makes it back on the field, he will be the first person to ever do so at the NFL level. Ifo is a great kid and deserves for good things to happen.  Miracles do happen.  Let's hope for one for Ifo.  

Frankly though, the players you get in the NFL draft should be guys that you have some belief in, rather than draft a guy and start praying for a miracle.  

Quarterback ball velocity at the Combine since 2008

      Some very interesting data on quarterback ball velocity comes via the NFL combine and Ourlad's guide to the NFL, which posts the ball velocity from some quarterbacks from 2008-2015. Not everyone participates in the velocity drill and in fact a lot of the better quarterbacks skip it. Plus it's probably not that accurate of a test as there are all kinds of different throws that the quarterback makes in real life. Still the numbers probably do mean something. I was surprised by a few items.  First, look at the top guys. Colin Kapernick and Kirk Cousins have a 59 mph ball, but so does former Brown Brandon Weeden. 

Believe it or not, the Browns' Austin Davis produced higher velocity at the combine than Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.  It doesn't prove that he is a good quarterback, but I'd like to see how he does with another year with the same team. 

Austin Davis is up there too at 58 mph. But Jameis Winston is supposed to have a cannon, and he is in the middle of the pack. Guys like Cam Newton, Marcus Mariotta, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson are also at the 55-56 mph range.

The highest velocity measured since 2008 was Logan Thomas of Virgina Tech at 60 mph.   He hasn't been tearing up the league so far, and was released by the Cardinals. He's now with the Dolphins.  

Not everyone with high velocity is taken by the pros.  There were 5 guys who were at 59 mph that I had scarcely heard of.   Apparently some of the strong-armed guys just were not pro prospects. 

On the other hand, for the guys who are very slow, almost none make it.  Only Tyrod Taylor is a starter with a 50 mph ball, and in his case a lot has to do with his running ability. That would make you think that Connor Shaw might really struggle to make it in the NFL based on his small size and slow fastball at 50 mph. I also wonder what the Vikings  were thinking when they took Christian Ponder at 51 mph. Basically, nobody other than Tyrod has made it as a fulltime starter if they couldn't throw at least 55 miles an hour.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State 59

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada 59

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State 59

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 58

Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi 58

Nick Foles, Arizona 57

Tom Savage, Pittsburgh 57

Sean Mannion, Oregon State 57

Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal 57

Josh Freeman, Kansas State 57

Chase Daniels, Missouri 57

Cam Newton, Auburn 56

Marcus Mariota, Oregon 56

Blake Bortles, Central Florida 56

Andy Dalton, TCU 56

Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois 56

Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 56

Colt McCoy, Texas 56

Curtis Painter, Purdue 56

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin 55

Joe Flacco, Delaware 55

Geno Smith, West Virginia 55

Jameis Winston, Florida State 55

Casey Keenum, Houston 55

Jake Locker, Washington 54

Bryce Petty, Baylor 53

Brett Hundley, UCLA 53

AJ McCarron, Alabama 53

Landry Jones, Oklahoma 53

Chad Henne, Michigan 53

Ryan Lindley, San Diego State 52

Kellen Moore, Boise State 52

TJ Yates, North Carolina 52

Marqueis Gray, Minnesota 51

Christian Ponder, Florida St 51

Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech 50

Connor Shaw, South Carolina 50

Matt Flynn, LSU 50

Michael Glennon, North Carolina State 49

Josh Johnson, San Diego 49

Colt Brennan, Hawaii 44

How Much Money Will the Browns Spend on Quarterbacks in 2016?

   

The Browns will spend $4.3 Million on Johnny Manziel if he does not play.  No wonder they call him "Money Manziel."

If as expected the Browns  add a first round quarterback this year, and cut Johnny Manziel, they will wind up spending about $15.5 Million on quarterbacks in 2016.  That would place them around 20th in the NFL.  

    Assuming they cut Johnny Manziel in March, his guaranteed money will count against the 2016 salary cap. That comes to $4,333,487.  If we would keep him, only half of that money would be charged this year, and we would actually have the player.  No matter, we will probably cut him even if he is exonerated by the legal system.  So let's just admit that we are paying $4.3 Mil.  By the way, if that were his salary he would be ranked 29th in the NFL, pending the resolution of the new free agents and draftees.    

     Josh McCown is going to cost us $5,041,666, ranking 27th in the NFL as of today.  That make him a low-paid starter or one of the top non-starting qbs in the league.  If we cut him we still have to pay him $2,333,334.  

Josh McCown ranked 15th in the NFL statistically, while drawing the 27th highest salary in the NFL.  I'd say he earned his money.  

Austin Davis is due for $1,766,666 (37th in the NFL, making him a top second string quarterback), but only $333,334 is guaranteed.  I would say Mr. Davis is vulnerable as a third stringer.  Most third stringers get close to the NFL minimum.

If we take a guy in the 2nd overall position, he would presumably get a Marcus Mariota level contract, which paid him  $4,402,541 in his rookie year.

All told, if you add up the amount we are on the hook for, Manziel, McCown, Davis and a top rookie will cost the Browns  $15.5 million.  As a comparison, $15.9 Million is the amount that the Patriots spend for Tom Brady $15,000,000 and Jimmy Garoppolo ($950,154).  The Bengals will spend 

$13,745,413  ($13,100,000 for Andy Dalton and $645,413 for A. J. McCarron).  Except instead of a true star player, we will be fielding New Kid, McCown and Davis.   Ouch.

Will Browns Analytics Lead to a First Round Quarterback?

Does a first round quarterback always lead to instant success?  Well, no, and it's not just the Browns.  

    Browns media and fans expect the Browns to draft a quarterback in the first round in order to replace Johnny Manziel, and we will also try to rush the new guy into the starting lineup as soon as possible.  It's just what we do.  

   But I'm not sure if Sashi Brown is going to follow the script.  He was selected based on the idea that he is an "analytics" guy, meaning that he is going to try to get players that are actually a sound investment.  I doubt whether that value investing philosophy translates to running out and getting a quarterback with the highest draft pick we have.  

    The buzz is that none of the quarterbacks available this year are NFL ready superstars.  Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch are both juniors, Carson Wentz is a true senior but played ball at a small college.  Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Kevin Hogan  and Cardale Jones are also well qualified prospects who will probably be drafted.  Among the top prospects, Goff, Lynch and Wentz are supposed to be first round guys, though there is some disagreement about which one is actually best.  On that basis, I don't think it is smart to draft one of these kids at the number 2 overall position.  

In the recent past, Cam Newton got his team to the Super Bowl, but not every quarterback succeeds. From 2011 forward, first round picks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Eli Manuel,  Blake Bortles, John Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota, did not get it done for their teams, and some of those guys have been cut by the team that drafted them. It's not just the Browns.  

If a guy comes out early, is he mature enough to make up the difference?  Who figured out that Aggie Sophomore Johnny Manziel was two years more mature than the average quarterback?

    

Meanwhile, in the 2016 draft, there are legitimate Pro Bowl caliber players with guys like Ohio State DE Joey Bosa, Mississippi LT Laremy Tunsil, Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey, and others.  These guys are much more valuable than a good-but-not-great quarterback that probably won't start regularly until 2017.   Remember that Jared Goff and Pax Lynch are juniors, and you will recall what happened the last time we took an underclassman quarterback.  Namely Johnny Manziel turned out to be not quite as mature as we thought.   

The analytics guys should be able to figure out which positions are most likely to be impact players.   Fans always want skill position players, namely quarterbacks and wide receivers, with much less emphasis on defense and offensive linemen and tight ends.   Is that the real right answer?  I've always suspected that it might be better to draft defense first, and not overdo the skill positions, but I admit I don't know for sure.   I think you could go back in the draft and see which draft strategies worked the best and try to emulate those. It seems like the Patriots and Ravens usually do a pretty good job at drafting, and the Browns not so much.  It might worth thinking about trading back in the draft to get some extra picks, and maybe even some for 2017.

    It'll be interesting to see how the new "moneyball" approach influences the draft especially in the first round.