What Does it Mean to be the "Face of the Franchise?"

Manziel is gone, but Josh McCown is not necessarily the new Face of the Franchise either.  

    If you have fantasies of being an NFL General Manager, this is your time.  The off season is upon us!

    My team, the Cleveland Browns, is in the market for a quarterback again.  Last year we had terrible run defense, and couldn't run the ball effectively either.  The cure for that is always to fire the Coach (check!) and to sign or draft a new quarterback.  

     Browns fans usually figure that the only way to get a good quarterback is to draft one with the first pick in the NFL Draft. This year we may have a shot at the top quarterback unless the Tennessee Titans concoct a massive trade.  So there is much ado about arm strength, 40 yard dash time, INT percentage and so on.  But what about being the "Face of the Franchise?"  

     I think that is very real.  It's about selling tickets and projecting the right image in the media, to be sure.  But the most important aspect is the ability to convince players to play for your team.  

    Supposing there is an All-Pro free agent wide receiver.  Do you suppose he will gladly come to a team that has Johnny Manziel for a quarterback?  Well, if the receiver isn't convinced that Johnny is going to be on the field, there is not much point in coming to play for Cleveland.  

     You need to have a quarterback that people can't wait to play for, based on the belief that he will be successful and make other people successful around him. And so off the field issues matter.  Any one event is not decisive, but players need to feel confident that the quarterback is stable, and that the franchise is stable and going to contend.   

       In the case of Manziel, even if he is exonerated completely and never has a drinking issue again this off season, there is zero chance we can convince players to choose our team.   So he's out, despite playing well on the field last year.  

      It's not just moral character.  I would say a guy like Sam Bradford, a tremendous talent who has had a history of injury trouble, might also be a poor Face of the Franchise.  It's not his fault, but if his injury history casts doubt as to whether he will be available or not, then his team is just not able to recruit and retain free agent players.  Conversely, Cam Newton gets a lot of press for minor misbehavior, but players know they are going to move the football, and they will definitely go to Carolina to play.  

    The best guys are still guys like Brady, Rodgers and Eli Manning; very stable individuals who throw for yards and touchdowns.          

    With the Browns, in my opinion  Hue Jackson becomes the face of the franchise.  I believe he has a lot of respect around the league and players will play for him.  As for McCown, despite playing at a very high level and winning great respect around the league, he will be 37 next year, and a top young player might not be willing to hitch his wagon to that horse.
     The Browns need to have a talented young quarterback, if not for 2016 then certainly 2017 and beyond.  We'll see what they come up with.  

Hue Jackson is the Face of the Franchise right now, rather than any particular player.   

     

Ifo Ekpre Olomu

If Ekpre Olomu was a sensational cornerback for Oregon, but suffered a horrific knee injury.  

Ifo Ekpre Olomu is by all accounts a hard-working solid individual that everyone would like to root for, a great kid.  He was a terrific cornerback at Oregon, and was projected as a first or second round draft pick, maybe even the top cornerback in the draft. 

That dream fell apart when he suffered a horrific knee injury in practice before the National Championship game against Ohio State.  I'm not a a medical authority, but based on what I've read, he suffered a knee joint dislocation. This is a severe injury that as far as I can find out no player has ever recovered from to play pro sports.   

This is NOT a dislocated kneecap.  This is a case in which the lower leg bones (tibia and fibula) have been separated from  the femur (thigh bone) as shown in the figure below.

Knee joint dislocation.  

Fortunately the Oregon Ducks wisely took out an insurance policy for him, and so he is going to be all right financially. But he still wanted to play football.  He received that opportunity when the Browns drafted him in the seventh round. 

The buzz among fans is that the Browns got a steal.  My suspicion is that Ray Farmer simply did not understand the extent of his injury.  The Browns did not do their homework, made a stupid pick.  At least the Browns could have taken a kicker as several were available and they were looking for one.

I hope that Ifo can beat the odds through determination and hard work.   If he makes it back on the field, he will be the first person to ever do so at the NFL level. Ifo is a great kid and deserves for good things to happen.  Miracles do happen.  Let's hope for one for Ifo.  

Frankly though, the players you get in the NFL draft should be guys that you have some belief in, rather than draft a guy and start praying for a miracle.  

Quarterback ball velocity at the Combine since 2008

      Some very interesting data on quarterback ball velocity comes via the NFL combine and Ourlad's guide to the NFL, which posts the ball velocity from some quarterbacks from 2008-2015. Not everyone participates in the velocity drill and in fact a lot of the better quarterbacks skip it. Plus it's probably not that accurate of a test as there are all kinds of different throws that the quarterback makes in real life. Still the numbers probably do mean something. I was surprised by a few items.  First, look at the top guys. Colin Kapernick and Kirk Cousins have a 59 mph ball, but so does former Brown Brandon Weeden. 

Believe it or not, the Browns' Austin Davis produced higher velocity at the combine than Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.  It doesn't prove that he is a good quarterback, but I'd like to see how he does with another year with the same team. 

Austin Davis is up there too at 58 mph. But Jameis Winston is supposed to have a cannon, and he is in the middle of the pack. Guys like Cam Newton, Marcus Mariotta, Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson are also at the 55-56 mph range.

The highest velocity measured since 2008 was Logan Thomas of Virgina Tech at 60 mph.   He hasn't been tearing up the league so far, and was released by the Cardinals. He's now with the Dolphins.  

Not everyone with high velocity is taken by the pros.  There were 5 guys who were at 59 mph that I had scarcely heard of.   Apparently some of the strong-armed guys just were not pro prospects. 

On the other hand, for the guys who are very slow, almost none make it.  Only Tyrod Taylor is a starter with a 50 mph ball, and in his case a lot has to do with his running ability. That would make you think that Connor Shaw might really struggle to make it in the NFL based on his small size and slow fastball at 50 mph. I also wonder what the Vikings  were thinking when they took Christian Ponder at 51 mph. Basically, nobody other than Tyrod has made it as a fulltime starter if they couldn't throw at least 55 miles an hour.

Kirk Cousins, Michigan State 59

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada 59

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State 59

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 58

Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi 58

Nick Foles, Arizona 57

Tom Savage, Pittsburgh 57

Sean Mannion, Oregon State 57

Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal 57

Josh Freeman, Kansas State 57

Chase Daniels, Missouri 57

Cam Newton, Auburn 56

Marcus Mariota, Oregon 56

Blake Bortles, Central Florida 56

Andy Dalton, TCU 56

Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois 56

Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 56

Colt McCoy, Texas 56

Curtis Painter, Purdue 56

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin 55

Joe Flacco, Delaware 55

Geno Smith, West Virginia 55

Jameis Winston, Florida State 55

Casey Keenum, Houston 55

Jake Locker, Washington 54

Bryce Petty, Baylor 53

Brett Hundley, UCLA 53

AJ McCarron, Alabama 53

Landry Jones, Oklahoma 53

Chad Henne, Michigan 53

Ryan Lindley, San Diego State 52

Kellen Moore, Boise State 52

TJ Yates, North Carolina 52

Marqueis Gray, Minnesota 51

Christian Ponder, Florida St 51

Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech 50

Connor Shaw, South Carolina 50

Matt Flynn, LSU 50

Michael Glennon, North Carolina State 49

Josh Johnson, San Diego 49

Colt Brennan, Hawaii 44

How Much Money Will the Browns Spend on Quarterbacks in 2016?

   

The Browns will spend $4.3 Million on Johnny Manziel if he does not play.  No wonder they call him "Money Manziel."

If as expected the Browns  add a first round quarterback this year, and cut Johnny Manziel, they will wind up spending about $15.5 Million on quarterbacks in 2016.  That would place them around 20th in the NFL.  

    Assuming they cut Johnny Manziel in March, his guaranteed money will count against the 2016 salary cap. That comes to $4,333,487.  If we would keep him, only half of that money would be charged this year, and we would actually have the player.  No matter, we will probably cut him even if he is exonerated by the legal system.  So let's just admit that we are paying $4.3 Mil.  By the way, if that were his salary he would be ranked 29th in the NFL, pending the resolution of the new free agents and draftees.    

     Josh McCown is going to cost us $5,041,666, ranking 27th in the NFL as of today.  That make him a low-paid starter or one of the top non-starting qbs in the league.  If we cut him we still have to pay him $2,333,334.  

Josh McCown ranked 15th in the NFL statistically, while drawing the 27th highest salary in the NFL.  I'd say he earned his money.  

Austin Davis is due for $1,766,666 (37th in the NFL, making him a top second string quarterback), but only $333,334 is guaranteed.  I would say Mr. Davis is vulnerable as a third stringer.  Most third stringers get close to the NFL minimum.

If we take a guy in the 2nd overall position, he would presumably get a Marcus Mariota level contract, which paid him  $4,402,541 in his rookie year.

All told, if you add up the amount we are on the hook for, Manziel, McCown, Davis and a top rookie will cost the Browns  $15.5 million.  As a comparison, $15.9 Million is the amount that the Patriots spend for Tom Brady $15,000,000 and Jimmy Garoppolo ($950,154).  The Bengals will spend 

$13,745,413  ($13,100,000 for Andy Dalton and $645,413 for A. J. McCarron).  Except instead of a true star player, we will be fielding New Kid, McCown and Davis.   Ouch.

Will Browns Analytics Lead to a First Round Quarterback?

Does a first round quarterback always lead to instant success?  Well, no, and it's not just the Browns.  

    Browns media and fans expect the Browns to draft a quarterback in the first round in order to replace Johnny Manziel, and we will also try to rush the new guy into the starting lineup as soon as possible.  It's just what we do.  

   But I'm not sure if Sashi Brown is going to follow the script.  He was selected based on the idea that he is an "analytics" guy, meaning that he is going to try to get players that are actually a sound investment.  I doubt whether that value investing philosophy translates to running out and getting a quarterback with the highest draft pick we have.  

    The buzz is that none of the quarterbacks available this year are NFL ready superstars.  Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch are both juniors, Carson Wentz is a true senior but played ball at a small college.  Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Kevin Hogan  and Cardale Jones are also well qualified prospects who will probably be drafted.  Among the top prospects, Goff, Lynch and Wentz are supposed to be first round guys, though there is some disagreement about which one is actually best.  On that basis, I don't think it is smart to draft one of these kids at the number 2 overall position.  

In the recent past, Cam Newton got his team to the Super Bowl, but not every quarterback succeeds. From 2011 forward, first round picks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Eli Manuel,  Blake Bortles, John Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota, did not get it done for their teams, and some of those guys have been cut by the team that drafted them. It's not just the Browns.  

If a guy comes out early, is he mature enough to make up the difference?  Who figured out that Aggie Sophomore Johnny Manziel was two years more mature than the average quarterback?

    

Meanwhile, in the 2016 draft, there are legitimate Pro Bowl caliber players with guys like Ohio State DE Joey Bosa, Mississippi LT Laremy Tunsil, Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey, and others.  These guys are much more valuable than a good-but-not-great quarterback that probably won't start regularly until 2017.   Remember that Jared Goff and Pax Lynch are juniors, and you will recall what happened the last time we took an underclassman quarterback.  Namely Johnny Manziel turned out to be not quite as mature as we thought.   

The analytics guys should be able to figure out which positions are most likely to be impact players.   Fans always want skill position players, namely quarterbacks and wide receivers, with much less emphasis on defense and offensive linemen and tight ends.   Is that the real right answer?  I've always suspected that it might be better to draft defense first, and not overdo the skill positions, but I admit I don't know for sure.   I think you could go back in the draft and see which draft strategies worked the best and try to emulate those. It seems like the Patriots and Ravens usually do a pretty good job at drafting, and the Browns not so much.  It might worth thinking about trading back in the draft to get some extra picks, and maybe even some for 2017.

    It'll be interesting to see how the new "moneyball" approach influences the draft especially in the first round.       

2016 Free Agent Quarterbacks

How would RG3 look playing for your team?

So, any of you amateur GMs out there want a slightly used quarterback for your team? 

These guys will probably get starter's money, say more than $5 M per year, if they are not re-signed by their current teams:

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets

Brock Osweiler, Denver Broncos

These guys will work for less: 

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins*
Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins
Mike Vick, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jimmy Clausen, Baltimore Ravens
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brandon Weeden, Houston Texans
Matt Cassel, Dallas Cowboys
Matt Schaub, Baltimore Ravens
Kellen Clemens, San Diego Chargers
Chase Daniel, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Hasselbeck, Indianapolis Colts
Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Johnson, Buffalo Bills
Thad Lewis, Philadelphia Eagles
Luke McCown, New Orleans Saints
Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins
Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions
Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals
Scott Tolzien, Green Bay Packers
Joe Webb, Carolina Panthers
Matt Flynn, New Orleans Saints
Charlie Whitehurst, Indianapolis Colts
T.J. Yates, Houston Texans

RG3 is not officially a free agent, but everyone knows his contract structure will force the Redskins to cut him if they do not renegotiate.  Much maligned in Washington, RG3 has been fair when given a chance to play if not great.   Kirk Cousins has played better and will likely be re-signed.  

There is also some chance that Johnny Manziel might find himself unemployed, although I think it is more likely that the Browns keep him and banish him to third string while waiting for him to mature a bit more.  In my opinion, Manziel's antics--namely, lying to the Coach, skipping meetings and failing to curb his drinking problem--are serious enough that the team cannot trust him to be the number one guy, but nowhere near serious enough to warrant uncompensated dismissal from the team.  I think in a few years there is a good chance Johnny will get things figured out and prove to be an acceptable performer.  Heck, if I worked for Mike Pettine, I would probably lie a lot also.  

Johnny Manziel has had his ups and downs, but the Village Elliot thinks it is better to keep him and see if he can work out his difficulties, rather than give him to Jerry Jones immediately. 

Browns fans are enamored with the idea that they need a "franchise quarterback" who should be taken in the first round.  And yeah, definitely if there is a guy like Cam Newton available, the Browns should take him.   But most analysts believe that the 2016 crop of quarterbacks falls into the "good but not great category." 

Most Browns fans figure they can not stand another year of Josh McCown, who was the 15th ranked quarterback in the NFL, while playing for a terrible team. Gee, that's not bad. But what they really want is a rookie to come in and throw for 4000 plus yards, and that just is very unlikely.   Nevertheless, I think that Coach Jackson will want to go for a quarterback and work with him.   It should be mentioned that second round pick Andy Dalton did pretty well for him, even without a rocket arm or the ability to run like Cam.  

Even if the Browns go with Josh McCown again this year, I tend to doubt whether they will go the free agent route. I think Cousins, Ostweiller and Fitzpatrick will re-sign with their current team, while Bradford has just been injured too much. I don't think we are going to try to overbid for one of these guys.  

As a backup, I don't think there is a guy out there who will be better in his first year than Austin Davis in his second year with the Browns.  I might take a shot at Colt McCoy, who was not bad for the Browns as their starter, and who has looked very good for the Redskins when given a chance.  But I would not pay him starter money.   By the same token, Jimmy Clausen was a bit improved while substituting for Joe Flacco in Baltimore.  A few other guys on the list can play well enough to manage the game and bring home a "W" for the right team.   But I don't see any superstars on the list, and for that reason I think we may see a few teams including the Browns willing to draft a quarterback in the first round in 2016.   

The Browns' Horrible 2014 NFL Draft

Ray Farmer should have gone into the 2014 draft with his eyes open, but he did not.

        One of the reasons Ray Farmer was a failure was that he completely fouled up the 2014 NFL draft.   The 2014 draft was the deepest in NFL history because there was a record number of underclassmen in that draft (headlined by Sophomore Johnny Manziel).  By the same token, there would be fewer upperclassmen in the 2015 draft.   As a consequence, the 2014 7th round had guys in who would probably be the equivalent of fourth or fifth rounders  in 2015.
         So what did Ray Farmer do?  He wound up with only six guys from the 2014 draft, and took twelve in 2015.     

       The metric should have been to accumulate as many draft picks as possible for 2014!  This is what Joe Banner did, as he traded Trent Richardson for a number one pick in 2014.  This and other moves set up the Browns with 10 draft picks going into the draft. 

     But on his first Draft Day, Ray Farmer got hustled. As a result, instead of 10 good players, he wound up with only six. He foolishly traded extra picks to move up for both Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel in the first round.  Both players have talent, but off-the-field instabilities threaten their NFL careers.  Evidently the Browns did not bother to compile personality profiles on their top guys.   

     Farmer  then picked  Joel Bitonio, a starting guard, in the second round; Chris Kirksey (an occasional starter at linebacker) in the third round.  Then he took Terrance West who had a good rookie year but showed up out of shape to summer camp in 2015 and was cut; plus reserve cornerback Pierre Desir in the fourth round. That was it.  One starter, one occasional starter, two question marks, and a reserve from 10 draft picks in the richest draft in NFL history. 

   Browns fans, as well as owner Jimmy Haslam III, rejoiced in the pick of sophomore Johnny Manziel in the first round, though this reviewer saw Johnny as the fifth most talented quarterback in the draft.
   Many fans were upset that Farmer did not take a wide receiver.   On this point, however, I'll side with Farmer.  He did sign free agents Mile Austin, Andrew Hawkins and Nate Burleson. Though Burleson wound up being hurt and got cut, Farmer did have two new wide receivers, plus holdover Josh Gordon, who had made the Pro Bowl despite a nasty weed habit.  They also wound up with an undrafted free agent in Taylor Gabriel. So just how many wide receivers do the Cleveland Browns actually have to have?

     Farmer's 2015 draft was much better though still not great.  They wound up with one full-time starting player in  Danny Shelton starting at nose tackle, though struggling much of the time.  Fellow first rounder Cameron Erving, who thinks he can play all five O-Line positions, got blasted at guard.     But they had some decent performances from 2nd Round (#51): OLB Nate Orchard; 3rd Round (#77): RB Duke Johnson, 3rd Round (#96): DT Xavier Cooper; 4th Round (#115): S Ibraheim Campbell.   But 4th Round (#123): WR Vince Mayle was cut. 

     The Browns got significant playing time from 6th Round (#189): CB Charles Gaines and 6th Round (#195): FB Malcolm Johnson and 7th Round (#219): ILB Hayes Pullard.

   However 6th Round (#198) TE Randall Telfer was injured, and the Browns drafted 7th Round (#241): CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu AFTER he suffered a likely career-ending knee  joint location. This is NOT the same as a dislocated kneecap, and indeed to my knowledge no one has ever recovered enough from that injury to play in the NFL. In all, nine players contributed, though none really starred in his first year. Moreover, it should be pointed out that with the Browns at the bottom of most categories on both Offense and Defense, starting for the Browns is not all that difficult of a task.  

     It's possible that some of the new Browns will emerge in 2016 and if so the 2015 draft could eventually be recognized as a good one.   Still, 2014 was blown so badly that it might be very difficult to recover from it.  

Duke Johnson was the Browns'  best rookie though he did not make nfl dot com's All-Rookie team.  

Dear Browns Coaching Prospect

Dear  Chip Kelly, Matt Patricia, Sean McDermott, Hue Jackson, Paul Guenther, Teryl Austin, Adam Gase. Doug Marrone and other prospective applicants to be the next Head Coach of the Cleveland Browns:

We like all of you guys a lot and earnestly hope one of you will choose to make Cleveland your next home.  So, you must be asking, why choose Cleveland instead of New York or New Orleans or San Francisco or Philadelphia or Miami?   

Well, for one thing, we're the team that has (trumpet sound) JOHNNY MANZIEL!   Yee Hah!  You'll be thrilled to work with him, he's very reliable and hardly ever causes any problems. Everybody knows you need a great quarterback to succeed in the NFL.   We know you'll be salivating at the chance to have this guy to create job security for you!

Coaching Candidates are going to flock to the Browns in order to have a shot at working with our stud quarterback Johnny F. Football.   Why, he was a first round draft choice!  What could be better? 

The other factor we have is the HASLAM CHARM!   Yes, wait till he tells you about his vision for the team.  We are sure you will fall under his awesome spell.  I'll bet you can't wait to come to Cleveland already.  

To know Browns charismatic owner Jimmy Haslam III is to love him.  It'll be great, and that's a promise.

Plus, don't forget our organization.  You'll have the opportunity to work with a great GM.  We don't know who it will be, but trust us, he'll be great.  We had Ray Farmer last year and he was a joy to work with, so we're sure the Browns will find someone equally pleasant in the next few weeks.  Or months, or years.  Whatever.  

We are Cleveland Browns fans.  Deal with it!

But all kidding aside, the greatest thing about Cleveland is its fans.  We are not pretty fans.  We are hard core people, mainly working stiffs, guys and gals with a blue collar mentality who love sports.  If you coach our team you're going to get yelled at and cussed at sometimes, but you will be surrounded by people who absolutely care about what you do.  And we aren't shy about telling you about it.

And if you win, you will become a hero of unimaginable proportions.   

Good luck!

The Strange Case of Justin GIlbert, by Mark F. Barnes, guest columnist.

During a discussion about Browns 2014 1st Round Pick Justin Gilbert in Denny Dice's Facebook Group (Dungeon of Dawgville) Mark Barnes offers the following:

Is Justin Gilbert as bad as the Browns defensive coaching staff believes?  Why does he play well on special teams if he is a poor player?    

He's only played man since High School and cover 2 zone is completely foreign to him. Because if his speed and ability to change direction in backpedal, Gilbert has always been used in man defense. 

I honestly don't know of another team in the NFL that uses cover 2 zone like Jim O'Neil does. Cover 2 man or cover 1 man. I've complained about this before in other articles, how O'Neil uses a bizarre hybrid spill and fill defensive front, problem is, he uses it in conjunction with a Cover 2 Zone secondary, and they do not work together. Cover 2 Zone essentially divides field in half. Your corners are more responsible for the flat and out routes and your safeties take the deep routes. Problem is that gives zero run support and if the LBs are filling the spill or the defensive line, the middle of the field is wide open. Cover two zone is popular in high schools because it's simple, but worthless in really good scheming offenses. Gilbert came out of the Big 12 and the Spread offense craze of that conference. If you haven't paid attention the Big 12 puts up ridiculous passing numbers, and the play primarily press man defense all the time. 

By dividing the field in half, you require two safeties to cover a lot of acreage. This opens the door to vulnerabilities that a smart offensive scheme will exploit. For example, if you put two receivers on either side of the deep zone, you can really stretch that safety, and one of the two will likely be wide open. Sound familiar, the Browns are constantly getting burned like this, and their run defense from this formation is abysmal. 

Also, there are natural pockets of weakness at the edges of each zone. If you're facing an accurate quarterback, and smart receivers, you'll be in trouble in those "soft" spots of the scheme. Linebackers cannot be expected to fill gaps in the run protection and support the the pass in the gaping hole left over the middle after they bight on the play action. The safeties have to be able to come down and lend middle support, but then your cover 2 zone is shot to hell and you're going to get gashed deep, as happens weekly. If you want to run the old Tampa 2 variation which has it's application, you better have the players to support the scheme. The defensive linemen in this scheme have to be quick and agile enough to create pressure on the quarterback without the aid of a blitz from either the linebackers or the secondary, with the defensive tackle in the nose position having above-average tackling skills to help stop runs. Browns don't have that either. The Browns are best suited for Cover 2 Man and nickel and dime, disguising the blitzes from the edge. 

In order to play the cover 2 zone effectively, you need very athletic players at the defensive back and linebacker positions. They need to by physical and smart, able to read the quarterback and adjust to multiple threats in their assigned zone of coverage. You have to have physical corners that can jam up the release of the wide receivers, and you also need linebackers that can run and cover. In the NFL, the cover 2 zone can be a disaster and rarely effective. When have you ever seen the Browns corner jam ANYBODY at the line. They normally play 5 to 7 yards off of them and allow that cushion throughout. That's why Roethlisberger carves them up constantly. 

Bottom line is O'Neil is clueless and is asking his team to do things that the roster isn't equipped for. The corners need to press the receivers, allow the outside linebackers to be responsible for the flats, if the coverage allows, roll that strong safety down in support, and get pressure on the QB. Quit all this spill and fill BS and please develop some gap integrity in the box. Start with firing O'Neil first off. Get a defensive identity and build to it. Play to your athletes strengths for god's sake.

Browns Will Lose Key Players to Free Agency in 2016

Browns fans looking forward to the off-season should be aware that it's not much better.  This years team was very weak, yet believe it or not we have a good chance of losing four Pro Bowlers (or alternates).  

Can the Browns retain Travis Benjamin?  

Several good players have the ability to walk via free agency. The list includes

Travis Benjamin WR, Pro Bowl alternate

Tashaun Gipson, S, Pro Bowl alternate

Alex Mack, C, Pro Bowl 

Johnson Bademosi, CB/special teams, Pro Bowl alternate

MItchell Schwartz, RT, starter

Craig Robertson, ILB, situational player.  

If we lose Travis Benjamin we are going to be short our best big play wide receiver.  The Browns have depth at wide receiver, but Benjamin is the only guy who is definitely better than average, unless you want to count on oft-suspended Josh Gordon.   Certainly Benjamin's low salary made him a bargain this year.  

Alex Mack is 99% likely to exercise his contract option and walk.  On the other hand, the Browns will save 8 million dollars versus the 2016 cap.  That's a lot of money for a center, and we will have enough to sign two capable starters for that kind of investment.  

Face it, Alex Mack is a bad-ass, now back from last year's injury.   He'll probably leave, and I wish him well.   

Cameron Erving is experienced at center but he is going to have to develop quite a bit to replace anyone.  Right now he is a miserably under-developed rookie.  

Although Mitchell Schwartz does not get a great deal of press, he has been a valuable starter.  It is not going to be easy to replace him, but having the money from Mack's contract may help.  

Mitchell Schwartz doesn't get the love that Joe Thomas does and has never made the Pro Bowl, but like Thomas he has never missed a snap in his career.  He's unbelievably tough, plays hurt and is a solid teammate.  Such players don't grow on trees.    

Johnson Bademosi would be a tough loss on Special Teams, although the Browns seem to be deep in this area.  In particular, the Browns are stuck with Justin Gilbert who has not been able to play effective at cornerback, but he has been a very good special teams player, plus other capable gunners like Marlon Moore, Jordan Poyer and others.   

Linebacker Craig Robertson improved at inside linebacker, but the Browns figure to add some additional talent at that position.  Robertson is good but maybe not irreplaceable.  Like other Browns positions the talent does not match the performance, with Nate Orchard, Chris Kirksey, Karlos Dansby and Paul Kruger all seeming to have talent but being part of a bottom five unit.  

But the big elephant in the room is Joe Haden, who gets a guaranteed $10 million dollars in 2016 as long as he continues to fail the concussion protocol.  There may be a very costly injury settlement, and so maybe no salary cap relief once they manage to get rid of him.  It's possible he may never again play for the Browns, while costing them the equivalent of two good starting players in terms of salary cap.

Did the Browns Goof on Joe Haden's Contract?

Did the Browns unintentionally incentivize Joe Haden with $10.1 million dollars to have a season ending injury?  

    First of all, I love Joe Haden.  He's been a great player and given the Browns many exciting moments.   But this year he had to shut it down early due to injuries.   

    Some of my friends, including my good friend Dennis Dice, have wondered aloud whether he is feigning injury.   I have up to this point dismissed this as unfounded criticism, based on Joe's record as a competitor.  But I started reading some more about his contract, and now I'm disturbed.  It looks like the way his contract is written he is highly incentivized to shut down for injury reasons.  It might be that the Browns will be forced to cut him and Haden may be forced to leave because of the way that the contract evolved.  Here's what has happened.  In 2014, Haden signed a contract for $67.5 million dollars. The guaranteed money includes $16 million in bonuses.  His 2016 salary is $10.1 million but is not guaranteed except if he is injured.  If the Browns cut him in the off-season, the salary cap is still charged the remainder of his bonus, but not his non-guaranteed salary.  The net result is they could have $3.4 million of 2016 dollars to sign other players.   

      But if he is injured, say from a concussion problem, it's different.  Now his $10.1 million dollar is guaranteed.  If the Browns cut him, they still pay the other guarantees PLUS $10.1 million dollars, and their salary cap has to absorb that in 2016.   They would have $6.7 million dollars LESS in their 2016 payroll to pay players.  

        In other words, as best i understand Haden's contract,l if Joe is not playing good football (and he hasn't been), he is worth TEN MILLION DOLLARS more money if he has a concussion problem.   

        This is a ridiculous position to put a player in.  Why would I offer a guy 10 million dollars to have (or appear to have)  an injury?  I think this contract device is totally not in anyones' best interest.  It harms the team and greatly increases the likelihood that the player WILL NOT PLAY.   

     I'm not saying that Joe is faking or not trying hard.  I believe in Joe Haden.  I blame a bad contract.  Put yourself in Joe's place.  You have to take a written concussion test. It's not a simple test, you have to concentrate hard to pass it.      But what if you knew that you could get 10 million dollars extra if you failed the test?  And moreover, if you get cut by the Browns you can still play football for another team. Would that affect your concentration?  It would affect mine.  Would I be able to pass such a test understanding everything that is on the line and the huge reward offered if I don't pass?   I'm not sure.  

     I think what the Browns have to do in this situation, if they want him to play, is to say, "Ok Joe, we still want you, we'll guarantee the rest of of your contract."  Then maybe he will do better in the concussion protocol.  If not, they will have to negotiate an injury settlement and release him.  But Haden holds most of the cards, and so the Browns will probably have to pay most of his $10.1 Million 2016 salary.   

     In the interests of full disclosure,  I'm an amateur sports blogger, not a pro sportswriter and not a financial expert. But based on how I understand the way NFL contracts work, I have to think that Joe Haden's contract increases the likelihood that he will never play again for the Cleveland Browns.  A similar problem happened in Washington, where Robert Griffin III gets another year added to his contract if he gets injured.  Hence the Redskins decided to just bench him to avoid the risk.
      

NFL Plays Musical Chairs with Franchises for Los Angeles and London

Your team could play here in a few years.   Don't assume the NFL will look out for your city's interests.  They look out for the NFL's interests.  

     I remember when the Browns moved to Baltimore.  It was a horrible feeling of betrayal.  The team owner sold out the fans in favor of making more money.   Well, we should have seen it coming, pro sports are a business and the teams are there to make money for the owner.   Mr. Modell did well financially and became a hero in Baltimore, even though he could never ever return to Cleveland.  In my lifetime, franchises have packed up and moved several times.  There was the Baltimore Colts...the Oakland Raiders moved to Los Angeles and back again...the Rams moved to St. Louis, the Chargers, Titans, and several others.  

    This terrible situation will happen to other teams.   Los Angeles is set to acquire two teams in the next few years, and perhaps one or two in London also.   The names thrown out are usually the San Diego Chargers, St. Louis Rams and maybe the Oakland Raiders.  All three teams have played in Los Angeles previously.    

Los Angeles is so huge that many observers feel that it will certainly receive two franchises in the next few years, not just one.  

    London is eyeing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been a grossly mismanaged team.  The Buffalo Bills are rumored to be another possibility if they are not nabbed by a group from Toronto first. 

     But if those moves go off without a hitch, that does not end franchise movements. Now you will have empty stadiums in San Diego, St Louis and Jacksonville, and groups will no doubt be formed to seek other NFL teams willing to relocate in order to get a sweeter stadium deal, and potentially enhance the value of the team by several hundred million dollars.  

      Fans assume that the candidates to move are primarily teams with poor fan support.  This is not true.  Any team that has a profit-oriented owner, preferably without family contacts in the team's current home, are candidates to move.        Greed is the motivator, so it merely has to be shown that a move to a new city will result in a new stadium with a sweet lease deal, and other teams will consider a move.  

        A few teams are so amazingly wealthy that they would not generate new revenue by moving.  If you look at the value of teams listed as estimated by (Forbes), that would include teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and the New York teams.  The average value of an NFL franchise is currently 2 billion dollars.  

      I'm not an expert but I have to think that franchises in Los Angeles and London will rank near the top of the list in ten years.  At least they should be comparable to franchises from Chicago or Philadelphia with a present value around $2.4 billion.    

    

      There are several teams valued at about $1.6 billion dollars or less:

     Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, Kansas City, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Tennesee, Jacksonville, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Detroit, Oakland and Buffalo.  Any of these teams would stand to create at least $800 million dollars of value by moving.   

     Many teams are owned by people with strong connections to the host city, and the owner would not want to become a pariah there as Modell became in Cleveland. Not so in the case of Jacksonville or Cleveland.  

    As a Browns fan, I am amazed that the team is owned by a resident of Tennesee, and no one seems to mind.   Rather, Clevelanders assume that the owner is a kindly football fan seeking to bestow riches on the team, and who is not swayed by profit motives.  Hence, getting a billion dollars for moving the team to LA or London would have no appeal for this saintly individual.

     But I breathe easier knowing that Haslam has been in quite a bit of legal trouble, and probably would not want to create more problems for himself and his brother the Governor of Tennessee, at least not at the present time.

    But returning to the scenario in which the Jaguars move to London, with the Rams and Chargers moving to LA, we have to ask how long it will be before new groups in Jacksonville, Saint Louis and San Diego will emerge to compete for the remaining teams.  It's a gigantic game of musical chairs, as the number of teams is limited by the NFL, while there are several more cities that want the NFL.   As Yogi Berra might say, it ain't over.  

    As a minimum this will result in a bidding war as teams scramble to keep their teams.   Stadium improvements worth hundreds of millions of dollars are certain to to result. Certainly when the Browns current lease expires in 2029, it will cost a pile of money to negotiate a new one.  We will have to outbid cities in the market for a new team to play in their new stadium.  This is just going to be the norm as the NFL extorts money from cities to keep their teams.