Grading Ray Farmer's Drafts for the Browns, 2014 - 2015

How good has Ray Farmer been at drafting players?

One of my football acquaintances,  Shawn Start   of Dawg Pound Nation is leading a petition drive to fire Cleveland Browns GM Ray Farmer.  I’m among those that feels that the Browns’ failures on defense are too great to overlook, given Coach Pettine’s defensive background.  So I’m on record as favoring a coaching change even though I like Pettine personally.  

What about GM Farmer?  How good a job has he done at getting talent for th team?   In particular, we need a guy who is a draft guru.  One thing the Browns are good at is nailing draft position year after year after year.  

Farmer has had two drafts so far. In 2014 he traded up and also acquired some 2015 picks.   First round pick Justin GIlbert has been an underachiever, but has recently played well enough on special teams that the Browns can actually use him.  Manziel is promising but has substantial off-the-field baggage that threatens his career.  Bitonio is a solid starter, but not as good as his rookie year, for unknown reasons.  Kirksey is an average starter, and Desir might continue to develop into a starter.  West was good his rookie year but showed up this year out of shape and was traded.   In all, the Browns got two average starters, a developmental quarterback, a special teams player and a developmental defensive back.  That’s okay but not spectacular for a team that had extra picks (ten,  I think, at the start of the draft).   

1st Round (#8): CB Justin Gilbert

1st Round (#22): QB Johnny Manziel

2nd Round (#35): OG Joel Bitonio

3rd Round (#71): ILB Christian Kirksey

3rd Round (#94): RB Terrance West

4th Round (#127): CB Pierre Desir

In 2015, the Browns took a terrifically strong nose tackle but one of the slowest players in team history. I mean, he works out a Glacier National Park instead of a running track.   He is starting but not doing particularly well.  The other number one pick was Cameron Erving, who is sort of a utility infielder and developmental center if Alex Mack leaves.  2nd Round pick Nate Orchard is contributing but not starting for the worst run defense in the NFL.  The same is true of DT Xavier Cooper.   3rd round pick Duke Johnson has been good at receiving passes coming out of the backfield, but can’t run the ball.  Vince Mayle was so bad he was cut.  Charles Gaines has made zero contribution so far.  TE Randall Telfer is out with an injury along with Ifo Ekpre-Olomu who had a career ending knee surgery but was drafted by the Browns anyway.  Malcolm Johnson plays fullback.  Hayes Pullard has no stats so far.    So in total, the Browns have one fellow who is starting and about six guys that are developmental types.   

1st Round (#12): NT Danny Shelton

1st Round (#19): OL Cameron Erving

2nd Round (#51): OLB Nate Orchard

3rd Round (#77): RB Duke Johnson

3rd Round (#96): DT Xavier Cooper

4th Round (#115): S Ibraheim Campbell

4th Round (#123): WR Vince Mayle

6th Round (#189): CB Charles Gaines

6th Round (#195): FB Malcolm Johnson

6th Round (#198): TE Randall Telfer

7th Round (#219): ILB Hayes Pullard

7th Round (#241): CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu

So in two years we have zero impact players, three starters and about six contributors, some of who might develop into starters later on. That's not particularly good. In the next article, I'll take a look at free agent signings.

A Niche for Justin Gilbert?

    Believe it or not, the often-criticized Justin Gilbert is making a major contribution to the team....on Special Teams. 

    Gilbert has nailed down the job as first string kickoff returner, averaging 30.2 yards per return. The team felt good enough about his contribution that they were able to cut Shaun Draughn, who was averaging 21.2 yards per return. That clears a roster spot, as the Browns want to carry three tailbacks (Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson and recently-activated Robert Turbin), with Malcolm Johnson as the fullback.  If Gilbert were not successful as a returner, Draughn would have been kept as a fourth tailback in order to have him as a kickoff returner. 

Justin Gilbert was a disaster as a rookie.  Thank God for Johnny Manziel, so no one really noticed Gilbert's failures. This year he has been used as a backup in the defensive backfield while excelling in kick returning as well as coverage teams.  

   The surprising thing has been Gilbert's emergence as a legit threat on kickoff coverage.  Gilbert has 4 solo tackles on special teams, second to Special Teams stud Johnson Bademosi, who has 6.  Unlike Bademosi, however, GiIbert has 4.3 speed, which means opposing returners are not having much time with Gilbert homing in on them.   

     In 2014 Gilbert was a terrible disappointment, gaining a reputation for immaturity and hostility, while not being able to master the skill of playing cornerbak in the NFL.  He was drafted 10th overall, with the intention of being a cover corner in the Joe Haden class.   Well, that didn't happen, and frankly Gilbert is still not very effective in the defensive backfield.   

     So far Gilbert has only seen 1.9% of the snaps at DB.   So Gilbert may still be a disappointment at the level, particularly in view of his large salary and the fact that the Browns invested a very high draft pick for him.  But if he continues to play at a high level on special teams, he can at least be a valued member of the team even if he causes them to burn a little more of Jimmy Haslam's cash than they might otherwise.  

   

Travis Benjamin Has More Yards Than the Combined Total of All Other Browns WR

Travis Benjamin is undoubtedly the most improved Brown, and probably the team MVP in the early going. 

      Can it be that Travis Benjamin has more receiving yards (328) than the combined totals of all other Browns wideouts including Brian Hartline (123), Andrew Hawkins (112), Taylor Gabriel (67), Marlon Moore (15) and Dwayne Bowe (0)?   Unbelievably, Benjamin trumps the field,  328 to 317.   

Benjamin has put his career back on track after being injured in 2013 (knee surgery) and a poor 2014 campaign in which he didn't catch many balls as a wideout, and misjudged a number of punts.  Many observers (okay, including me, I admit) were expecting that the Browns would cut Benjamin in order to keep Terrelle Pryor as a recycled wide receiver after flopping as a quarterback.  Fortunately that did not happen.

Benjamin has been incredibly valuable as the other wide receivers have all but disappeared.   Dwayne Bowe suffered a pulled hamstring and no one has seen him run full speed in a game yet.   Last year's star rookie Taylor Gabriel has been very quiet, as well as our star free agent Andrew Hawkins.

It's equally surprising how the combined producion of Bowe, Gabriel and Hawkins has dropped off, while Benjamin has picked up most of the slack.  

          2014 (16 game avg)    2015 (4 game avg)

Hawkins           51.5                            28.0

Gabriel       39.4                 16.8

Bowe (KC)     47.1                   0.0

Benjamin       19.6                   82.0

The Browns are also getting decent production from tight end Gary Barnidge, and rookie running back Duke Johnson seems to want to make a few catches as well.  Last year for whatever reason the Browns were very reluctant to throw the ball to running backs Isaiah Crowell, Ben Tate (since cut) or Terrance West (since traded).

The twin mystery is how did Benjamin improve so much, and why have Hawkins, Bowe and Gabriel slid off the face of the earth?  

John DeFilippo Should be the Interim Coach of the Browns

Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo Should be the Next Coach of the Browns.  

      It's a foregone conclusion that Browns' terrible defense will get Coach Mike Pettine fired, along with his sidekick, Defensive Coordinator Jim O'Neil.  Nobody wants to blow up the coaching staff, but based on the Browns upgrading several positions on defense and currently rated as the 32nd best defense in the NFL out of 32 teams, it's inescapable.  

       So who will the new Coach be?   Usually, the interim Head Coach is someone from the current staff, as there is simply no opportunity to install a new system.   I think Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo is the logical choice.  

     First of all, he's gotten a shabby unit--universally regarded as weak at quarterback and receivers---to perform rather well, or at least not as decrepit as the defense.  Currently, the passing offense is ranked Number 9 in the NFL, believe it or not.  The rushing offense is Ranked Number 25, making us Number 18 overall.  That's not great, but might be good enough to win if the Defense had performed up to expectations.    
     
      The defense on the other hand is so horrific that we could not consider promoting anyone from the unit to the head job.  

    One of the other important items to be determined this year is whether Johnny Manziel should be the starting quarterback next year.  DeFilippo is definitely the right person to make that determination.  Unlike Pettine, he would not feel obligated to play Josh McCown.  It must be said that McCown has upheld his end of the bargain so far, generating above average quaterback play despite a largely lackluster career.  But because of his age he is not likely to be a viable "quarterback of the future."  If we were in contention that would be one thing, but we are not.

    

Both McCown and Manziel have flourished under DeFilippo's system.   No one has flourished under O'Neil's defense however. Absolutely no one.  

   DeFilippo is very young, only 37, and largely unknown. Nevertheless he has experience guiding Mark Sanchez in his rookie year with the Jets, when they went to the AFC title game; and he also worked with Derek Carr for the Raiders last year.   Thus he is very well respected as a tutor for quarterbacks.  We have very limited data to go on, but so far the play calling for the untalented offense has been reasonably productive.  Maybe the Browns have something here.   Let's give him a shot and see what he can do.  

After Four Games, Wow the Browns Stink!

The Browns are enduring another painful year, with the defense unexpectedly regressing despite six former Pro Bowlers and significant additions up front.  

    Face it, the Browns are horrible, and they are going to have to fire Mike Pettine as coach.  

    We are ranked number 32 out of 32 on Defense, currently giving up 406 yards per game.    31st out of 32 in rush defense.  Once again we can not stop the run.

     We didn't play any major offenses so far:  the Jets, led by recycled veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick; Tennessee Titans with rookie Marcus Mariota calling signals for only his second game in the NFL (hey, I think he'll be a very good if not great player, but not necessarily in his second game), perrenial losers Oakland Raiders, and not to mention the  San Diego Chargers (with three guys out on offensive line).  Correct me if I'm wrong, but these teams are not offensive juggernauts.  

You have to look at the talent level and see it increase and yet our performance is getting worse!  Six guys who have been to a Pro Bowl, and moreover in the offseason, the team added Danny Shelton, Randy Starks, Nate Orchard, Xavier Cooper, and Tramon Williams and  we also are getting back  a healthy John Hughes and Armonty Bryant. 

By comparison, the 1999 team finished last in the NFL with 378 yards per game given up.  The 2015 team is worse than 1999! How can we accept Pettine as the defensive guru, especially as he has Jim ONeil as DC, his lieutenant in Buffalo?   O'Neil and Pettine have coached together for seven years.  Are you kidding? It's beyond terrible.  

"What?  Elliot Kennel says that our stats are worse now than in 1999?  How can that be?"

It's not injuries that are killing us this year, unless you count Joe Haden's broken finger.  

Nobody wants to blow up the management team and start over, but I don't see how you can stay with a defensively minded coach after providing all that talent and seeing the team get so much worse.  It would be one thing if the offense were messing up, given that the conventional wisdom has been that they don't have that much talent at quarterback and wide receiver.  It seems clear enough that there is something fundamentally wrong with the defensive approach.  The team has gone 1-8 after staring out 7-5 last year.  It's just a terrible peformance from a team that has talent.   There seems to me to be no choice but to dismiss the coaches, at least on the defensive side of the ball, and rebuild yet again.  

   

Village Elliot Says the Browns are a 9-7 Team

So how good are the Cleveland Browns?   I think this is the best team we have had since the Browns were re-formed in 1999.   Wins and losses are notoriously hard to predict, but my guess is that we will enjoy a winning season.  Why?

First we have a defensive backfield made up of four Pro-Bowlers in Joe Haden, Tramon Williams, Donte Whitner and Tashaun Gipson.  Plus they have great backups in K'Waun Williams and Pierre Desir.  The worst guy is former first round pick Justin Gilbert who did great at the combine but can not play football.  

Second, the defensive line is significantly improved.  The Browns were a top 10 defense despite being the worst against the run.  They have added Danny Shelton, and former pro bowler Randy Starks, a great veteran who was let go by the Dolphins to make room for N'Damukong Suh. On top of this, the Browns are getting back players who were injured last year (John Hughes, Armonty Bryant) and rookie Xavier Cooper was outstanding in pre-season.   The Browns now have excellent depth at DL. 

Linebackers include former Pro Bowler Karlos Dansby, sack man Paul Kruger and up and coming Chris Kirksey.  Scott Solomon is the weakest starter on the right side, but they have quality backups in Barkevious Mingo (sixth overall pick in 2013), Craig Robertson and rookie Nate Orchard.   Again, this is an above average unit with outstanding depth.  

This is likely a top 5 NFL defense.  

As for offense, Browns fans are among the most quarterback-fixated fan base in the NFL.  Veteran knockabout Josh McCown was the 31st best qb in the NFL in 2014 after performing at a high level in limited action in 2013 with the Bears.  The story of McCown is that he is a pretty good pocket passer if the line can protect him, but he is not exactly Josh Football when forced out of the pocket.   I think the Browns keep him upright with three Pro Bowl talents on the OL (Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio and Alex Mack) and two established veterans (John Greco and Mitchell Schwartz) with first round pick Cameron Erving not yet able to make the starting lineup.   They still need to add a few more fat kids to the roster, however. 

Joe Thomas, Donte Whitner.

At wide receiver, the Browns do not have star talent, but they do have depth with Dwayne Bowe, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel, Travis Benjamin and  wild card Terrelle Pryor. 

Similarly they have four good but non-glorious tight ends in Gary Barnidge, Jim Dray and Rob Housler and E. J. Bibbs.  Let's try some two and three tight end formations this year, shall we?

Running back appears to be weak, with Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson.  Grouchy sophomore Terrance West appears to be on the trading block.  Malcolm Johnson made the team as a fullback but was not particularly outstanding in pre-season. 

Special teams played surprisingly well after adding Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee.  Returner Travis Benjamin fielded punts much better than last year, and so perhaps he will be better able to use his returning skills in 2015.  Several players returned kickoffs well in pre season, including incumbent returner Marlon Moore, who is also a great coverage guy.  Johnson Bademosi and Jordan Poyer also made it.  Both are outstanding in special teams but below average performers in the defensive backfield.  

If there is a downside, it is definitely playing in the AFC North, which I believe is the Pro equivalent of the SEC.  Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are very tough teams and in fact I think there is a chance that the entire division finishes over .500 this year. So even though I like the Browns this year, I also like Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  The Steelers' defense is most un-Steeler like this year and for that reason I'm predicting that the Browns will finish ahead of Pittsburgh, but that may not be good enough make the playoffs.     

The RG3 Saga...How Not to be a General Manager.

photo credit:  http://brunchpop.tumblr.com/post/65539819445/meme-monday-the-dan-snyder-new-shoes-photo

Has rock star Owner/GM Dan Snyder ruined his team with silly moves involving RG3? 

    Robert Griffin III has lost his starter's job in Washington, underscoring how miserable it is to have an owner as a General Manager.   First,  Dan Snyder gave up three first round draft picks (including what proved to be the second overall pick in 2014) and a second round pick so that he could draft RG3 in 2012.   Many analysts (including me) question whether any player could be worth so many picks.  In fairness, RG3 was a superstar his rookie year, but after knee surgery he never fully rebounded.   He still has the skill to evolve into a pocket passer, and probably he is unfairly blamed for the lack of performance from an untalented offensive line.  But in the area of intangibles, he seems to have alienated his teammates and the coaching staff, and he always manages to say the wrong thing to the press. 

     In the offseason, GM Snyder inexplicably decided to prematurely award RG3 a fifth year on his contract, making it impossible to trade the guy unless he decides to renegotiate.  The $15 M value of that fifth year means that no sane team will trade for him.  It looks as though the Redskins may have to eat that contract if they decide to get rid of RG3 early.   

    Even more absurd, apparently the guaranteed extension only kicks in if  RG3 is injured.  So that essentially means that they will be afraid to play him, now that they have apparently decided he is not the quarterback of the future because if he plays and gets hurt it will cost the team a huge amount of their 2016 salary cap.  

         So perhaps they have gotten themselves in a situation, financially speaking, where it is best not to play him at all, so they can drop him at the end of 2015 and not get penalized.  Yech.  This must be the dumbest contract of all time.   

     Hence, Dan Snyder's love affair with RG3 has cost his team a second round pick, three number one picks including the 2014 second overall, 15 million bucks for the 2016 salary cap, not to mention losing the confidence of the team and the coaching staff with his blunders.   Brilliant!   

Ray Farmer's Weirdest Move This Off Season

I like Ray Farmer, but did not understand why he gave John Hughes an early contract extension.   Why not wait until 2016?  


   I'm a fan of the Browns' GM Ray Farmer who impresses me as a guy always seems to be ahead of his competitors in terms of building a team the right way and manipulating the salary cap in his favor.  However, one move that I did not not understand was the awarding of a contract extension to John Hughes.   

Browns Defensive End John Hughes warmly greets the Cowboy's Tony Romo.  

Hughes played well for the Browns last year, and is a very good player, and I'm happy for him.   But why did the Browns extend his contract a year before it was due?   This is especially odd because Hughes was injured last year and didn't play much, only appearing in five games with three starts. 

The Browns defensive line put in a spectacularly bad performance, getting five sacks from Desmond Bryant and only two sacks from the rest of the team.  

So what is the plan for Hughes?  They are paying him like a starter, but suddenly there is a logjam of talent there:   Desmond Bryant and Xavier Cooper at LDE,  Danny Shelton, Phil Taylor and Ismaily Kitchen at NT, and Randy Starks and  Billy Winn at RDE. Armonty Bryant also appeared to be playing at a high level early in 2015 only to go down with an injury.  The Browns now want him to shift to Right Outside Linebacker, though I'm not sure his his lineman speed translates to linebacker very well.   

Regardless, it looks like Bryant, Shelton and Starks are likely to be first string, so it is odd that the Browns would give a big contract ($14.4 Million over 4 years, with $3.56 Million guaranteed) to a guy who doesn't seem destined for a starting role, and who was already under contract through 2015.   The only reason to do this is if Farmer believes the guy is headed for a breakout year in 2015, and if he is going to continue to be a star player in 2016 and beyond.  That will be very interesting.   

Overall, it bodes well for the Browns that they have a crowd of talent at the position, with Hughes coming back from his injury, and adding Danny Shelton (1st round pick), Xavier Cooper (3rd round)   and former Pro Bowler Randy Starks as a free agent.  

Non-performing Ahtyba Rubin is gone, and Phil Taylor may be on his way out after struggling with injuries last year and generally not performing well since his outstanding rookie campaign in 2011.    

   

Why Cut the Backup Quarterback?

     The Cleveland Browns, like many other historically under-performing teams, love to cut the backup quarterback every year. 

      Weak front office personnel fear public opinion and especially the dreaded "quarterback controversy."  Hence the tendency is to avoid the problem by simply getting rid of the backup, hoping that the new starter will become a superstar. 

     But all too often teams need a backup because the starter gets injured.  In the case of the Browns, a ridiculous number of quarterbacks in the league are former Browns including:

    Brian Hoyer, Houston
    Brandon Weeden, Dallas
    Colt McCoy, Redskins
    Derek Anderson, Panthers 
    Bruce Gradkowski, Steelers
    Josh Johnson, Bengals
    Luke McCown, Saints
    Jason Campbell, free agent. 

    Browns fans won't like me saying this, but we need to take a cue from the Steelers on this issue.   They managed to keep Charlie Batch employed for 8 years.  Though not a superstar, he won  6 games as a starter and lost only three.   That's about the same winning percentage as Ben Roethlisber, by the way.     

 Charley Batch played with the Steelers for 8 years and had a 6-3 record as a starter.  Hey, he was good enough to win!

     Heck, the Browns rarely have a winning record with their starter, never mind the backup.  But in past years they have needed backup quarterbacks after letting the starter get pounded by defensive lines.   Perhaps by now things might be a little more solid with Pro Bowlers Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, as well as up and coming Joel Bitonio and Cameron Erving plus established pros Mitchell Schwartz and John Greco.   Still, you never know when you might need a backup quarterback, so here's hoping they don't jettison Johnny Manziel, Thad Lewis or Connor Shaw.  Assuming Shaw can clear waivers, he would be eligible to return to the practice squad, allowing Thad Lewis to make the 53-man roster.   

     I would like the Browns to go for the best guy available. This means the front office has to be strong enough to endure the criticism that will inevitably result.  Qbs tend to peak after 3-4 years with the same team rather than the 1 year audition that they normally get.   

A Review of Everybody Fumbles by Earnest Byner

  Everybody Fumbles by Earnest Byner is ostensibly a book about playing football.   Earnest is known to many Browns fans as the guy who fumbled in the AFC Championship game, and thereafter was unfairly criticized as the man who cost the Browns a Super Bowl victory.  

    The fact of the matter is that Byner's TD would have merely tied the game, and there was still the matter of containing John Elway and the Broncos, never mind the problem of facing the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XXIV.  Joe Montana and the 49ers rang up 55 points on the Broncos, so I don't have the feeling that they would have been easy pickings for the Browns,  But no matter, many Browns fans are convinced it was Earnest's complete fault that we didn't win that Super Bowl, and probably every one thereafter.  

   This then, is a book from a famous NFL player who knew great adversity and failure, yet one who was able to someone rise above it and win a Super Bowl ring with the Washington Redskins.  Hence I tend to listen to what he has to say.  He is a very special person.

   The format of the book is a series of short narratives, an average of two pages. It's easy reading, but still intellectually stimulating. Mostly the narratives deal with an aspect of being a pro athlete; for example, suggests to improve preparation for games, mental discipline and focus.   Hence I would strongly recommend this to any person wanting to play the game of football at a higher level. A junior high student would not have difficulty in picking this up.  

The story of Earnest Byner has a happy resolution, as he was a key member of the Washington team which won Super Bowl XXVI in 1992.     

   The principles of focus, dedication, visualization and others apply not only to football but to any worthwhile endeavor.  Some people may enjoy smooth sailing for their entire careers, but for most of us there are going to be upsets, battles, frustrations...and fumbles.   You need to be mentally tough and prepared in order to get through it.  

   To cite a personal example, one time I met an engineer, who frankly told me, "I got a guy killed one time.  He died in an accident.  I had told the company that that type of accident was impossible to occur, but it happened."    

    Talk about a fumble!  Mr. Byner, you were playing a kid's game.  This fellow was involved in life and death situations, and lost.  I can't imagine how he recovered, and as far as I know he never returned to the business of safety assessments, but did return to the profession of engineering and thermodynamic cycle analysis.   One of the most humble people that I have ever met.  I don't think he will ever get over the mistake he made, but somehow he was able to get to the point where life could go on despite his failure.

    That's the kind of difficult times that life often throws at us.   In some way, someone like Earnest can help coach us through difficult times.   Thus this book is not only excellent for your sports-minded youngsters, but also for Mom and Pop in the workaday world.   

    Yeah, everybody fumbles.  But Earnest tells us how to get up from those fumbles and go on to win Super Bowls.

GO FOR IT! My Proposed Rule Change for Kicking: No Ties via Extra Points.

   My proposal for the NFL is to modify the extra point rule as follows:   Force teams to go for the lead rather than the tie.   NFL players, and more importantly to the NFL, the networks, hate tie games and indeterminate game lengths.  They also think that two point conversions might be more exciting than the boring one point kicks.  So how about not allowing teams to kick for a one point conversion when they are behind by one point?  Instead, make them go for  two points and either take the lead or fail and fall behind.  

The NFL is concerned that the Extra Point is boring, and teams have too many tie games at the end of regulation.  So what does the NFL do?  Allow the Extra Point to create more tie games.  


So, suppose one team scores a TD and kicks the extra point.   They go up 7-0.  Now the other team marches down the field and they score a touchdown making it 7-6.  Now, however, they are not allowed to go for a one point conversion.  They have to go for two so that at the end of the play it is either 8-7 or 7-6 but it is not a tie.  Similarly, I wouldn't let teams tie the game in the second half with a field goal.  Go for the Hail Mary, a way more exciting play than watching some soccer guy kick the darn thing.  Going for a TD or two point conversion is much more exciting and decisive, as the strategy of playing for a tie is not only boring, but contrary to the desires of players and friends who want to go for the win. 
   
This is going to greatly reduce the possibility of tie games, which is what the NFL says they want to do.    You could still have tie games, but they would be much less frequent.  

Why Did the Browns Offense fall apart in 2014?

    The Browns started off the 2014 season playing at a high level on offense and defense.  But by the end of the year, the Browns faltered badly, especially an offense as they seemed to lose the ability to move the ball.   Much of it was simply injury related, as the Browns lost Pro Bowl Center Alex Mack. But in my opinion, Mack's situation was made worse by odd personnel decisions at the end of training camp.  This and other disfunctions can be traced to a disfunction between Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan and General Manager Ray Farmer.  The upshot was that the team was short of personnel and Shanahan was unable to compensate for the loss of a star player.  

  First let's review what went right.     The fact is that the Offense was very formidable early in the year, with Joe Thomas, newcomer Joel Bitonio and Alex Mack all playing at or near Pro Bowl level.  On the right side, John Greco and Mitchell Schwartz also played well,  The offensive line seemed to thrive on Shanahan's zone blocking schcme.  

    Early on, opposing defenses thought they could challenge the Browns by playing 8 man fronts all day long, daring Hoyer to throw deep.  Well, Hoyer was able to hit  Taylor Gabriel and  Andrew Hawkins with the deep ball, with Miles Austin proving to be a reliable possession receiver and Jordan Cameron also disrupting defenses foolish enough to stay in 8 man fronts too long.   All three running backs excelled on the ground, including starter Ben Tate and the two rookies, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.   However, the Browns rarely threw to the running backs.

    One of the most peculiar roster moves was almost completely gutting the offensive line deptch at the end of training camp, cutting  Reid Fragel, Garrett Gilkey, Donald Hawkins, Alex Parsons, Abasi Salimu and Martin Wallace.  Only Paul McQuistan survived, probably because he had guaranteed money.   My guess is that Offensive Coordinator Shanahan may have asked for the purge, frustrated by the inability of less talented players to pick up his complex blocking schemes.

    Everything fell apart when Center Alex Mack  broke his leg.  The Browns, having cut all of their backup linemen, had only Paul McQuistan ready to play, and he was ineffective.   By Game 8, they switched to newcomer Nick McDonald at center, followed soon by Ryan Seymour.   But the offensive line never regained its early season form.

"Look out, Brian!"  The Browns O-Line was much less effective after the injury to Alex Mack, partly because all the backup linemen except Paul McQuistan had been purged at the end of training camp.

    The Browns also lost confidence in Ben Tate, and shockingly released him in mid-season.   Ben is a very good player, and was always lobbying for more playing time.  This kind of "bad attitude" I am totally ok with it.  Nevertheless, the Browns seemingly couldn't tolerate it, and coupled with his declining performance after a hot start, Tate was gone by mid November.   The Browns kind of got away with this because of the emergence of West and Crowell, but in my opinion Shanahan probably forced Farmer's hand to get rid of the admittedly underperforming Tate.  

    Yet another oddity is that GM Ray Famer was known to be high on running back Glenn Winston, who destroyed defenses in pres-season for the 49ers, and was one of their last players cut.   Yet the number of carries that he could obtain in the Shanahan offense?  Zero.   Especially in an offense that could not move the ball the last five games of the year it is preposterous to think that the guy wasn't worth a carry or two.  No, the signs point squarely to a feud between Shanahan and Farmer, with Shanahan forcing a number of questionable personnel decisions and then not being able to compensate when his starters went down.    

Kyle Shanahan refused to play Glenn Winston at running back, probably to show Farmer who's boss.

Eventually Miles Austin was injured and replaced by Josh Gordon, returning from a drug suspension.  Gordon was just not the same player as he was before the suspension.  The 2014 Gordon was out of shape,  flabby and did not learn the playbook.  He was just a shadow of his former self, and not nearly able to replace Austin.

In turn, Hoyer cooled off and was unable to rally the troops.  He eventually finished the year as the 31st highest ranked quarterback in the NFL.  The talented but drug infested Johnny Manziel started two games and made a fool of himself before giving way to an unspectacular Connor Shaw.  

Clearly the Browns were talented at first string, but when injuries hit they had no answer.  Shanahan was brilliant at designing plays for the first string but could not deal with lesser talents.  In particular, they gutted the team of backup offensive linemen, and then the team fell apart when they had no trained backup linemen.   Certainly that was their own fault.  To the extent that Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan contributed to this dysfunctional offense, it is probably a good thing that he has left the team.  

No Capital Punishment for Deflategate

    I don't think the NFL will do much about Deflategate.   The reason is that the NFL is guilty of a few things also.

    First and foremost, they have a rule but no punishment associated with it.  What kind of rule is that?   If they had wanted to "send a strong message" as many have suggested, they should have said what the penalty was going to be.  

        Second, the NFL did not log the pressure of the balls prior to the game.  If 12.5 psi is so important to people, they ought to measure it to see if the pressure is right.  Moreover they need to decide how they are going to measure it, with what pressure gauge and so on, or otherwise they will get different answers depending on who does the measurement.  Two officials made measurements at the Indianapolis game, and they differed by as much as 0.4 psi.   That's okay for inflating tires, but if 12.5 psi is really some cherished number to fans, they need more accuracy.   

        Third, the NFL was completely unprepared to enforce the rule. They had no procedure in place what to do.  Basically, the officials just said, "well, that's interesting," and sent the matter back to headquarters.  In baseball, if a pitcher is caught doctoring the baseball, they throw him out of the game on the spot.    In this case, they were unprepared for anything other than to let Brady continue to play while they referred the issue to the Commissioner's office later.  That little fiasco is on the NFL.  

     Fouth,  what is normal to expect after a bunch of 300 pound guys fall on the darn thing? If the pressure were to decrease in a ball during the game, what action do we want the officials to take?  

        Fifth, nobody has any idea whether other NFL teams have violated ball-related regs.  They just have not paid attention.  Again, that is the NFL's fault.

      Thus,  I think if I were the NFL commissioner I would do two things:

        First, thanks to the Patriots proving that teams can not be trusted, there now needs to be a layer of regulation and oversight to monitor the football and other equipment specifications.  The NFL will probably have to hire 100 or so specialists because of what the Patriots did.  That is going to be a massive headache and will cost big time money, and for that reason I think the Patriots should be levied a massive fine to help pay for this nonsense.

       As for Brady himself over-doctoring the footballs, there should be some sort of on-the-field penalty as well. But as I argue above the current system is unworkable, so I think it is difficult to assess a major penalty.  I think it is thus comparable to the use of stickum or some other illegal tweaking of game equipment, so I think he may be suspended for a game or so.   

     On the field, this will not harm the Patriots a bit.  They are interested to see how hotshot new kid Jimmy Garoppolo can play anyway.  I think he'll be good if not great if he gets a chance.   If they suspend Brady for 8 games, that would keep him fresh for the playoffs more than anything else.    

   

Meet the New Browns---2015 Draftees

     For the first time in years, I have a good feeling about the Browns draft.  No weird trades, no dope fiends or lunatics.   No longshot Messianic would-be saviors.  We didn't mortgage the future to get some hotshot quarterback.  Just solid players that are going to improve the weaknesses of the team.

     In past years I had a sick, sick feeling about the NFL draft and our Cleveland Browns.  Like when we drafted a 28 year old quarterback with a first round pick, and used four draft picks including the fourth overall to select a running back who Jim Brown said was comparable to a third round draft pick....or when we used three picks to get a running back who had had major knee surgery on both knees...or picked up a talented dope fiend wide receiver.  Even last year there was a sneaking suspicion that the owner may have made the selection of quarterback Johnny Manziel.  This year felt different. 

     The plan is that we are going to play Power Football in the AFC North.   We are going to fix the worst defensive line in the NFL  We are going to run the ball six ways from sundown and we are going to beat up other teams.

Welcome to Cleveland....

Danny Shelton, Nose Tackle, Round 1, Pick 12 (12), 6'2" 339 Washington.  The Browns were last in the NFL in run defense.  That is going to change.  

Cameron Erving Center,  Round 1, Pick 19 (19) (from Bills), 6'5" 313 Florida St.  The Browns season was torpedoed when Alex Mack went down.   Cameron Erving can play center, but he also started at tackle at FSU.  I think he might challenge John Greco for a starting job at right guard.    

Nate Orchard, Outside Linebacker, Round 2, Pick 19 (51) (from Texans) 6'3" 250 Utah.   Nate was the #2 sacks leader in college football.   Opposing Quarterbacks were very comfortable in 2014, and Nate will make them feel much less comfortable.  Look our Mr. Barkevious Mingo, this kid might take your job.

Duke Johnson, Running Back and Kick Returner,  Round 3, Pick 13 (77) 5'9" 207 Miami.    Duke gives the Browns pass catching ability that they lacked in 2014.  He can immediately become the third down back while leaving the heavy lifting to Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West and Glenn Winston. He was a tremendous kickoff returner, and the Browns will probably try him at Punt Returner, where they were also at the bottom of the league.  

Xavier Cooper, Defensive End, Round 3, Pick 32 (96) (from Patriots)  6'3" 293 Washington St. Though listed as a defensive tackle, he will probably play defensive end in the Browns 3-4.   Look, you guys finished last in the NFL in run defense, so Ray Farmer is going to draft three new guys for the defensive line, plus free agent and former Pro Bowler Randy Starks.

Ibraheim Campbell, Strong Safety,  Round 4, Pick 16 (115) (from Bills) 5'11" 208 Northwestern.   This fellow would be a backup for Donte Whitner, but I'll bet that he will get a shot on special teams.

Vince Mayle, Wide Receiver, Round 4, Pick 24 (123) (from Cardinals) 6'2" 224 Washington St. Browns Nation has been screaming for quarterbacks and wide receivers, so Farmer throws them a bone finally.  We get a guy who is more of a physical possession type receiver for cold weather football, rather than the burner to catch bombs in a wind-free dome.   Folks, we don't play in a dome, quit crying for guys who excel in a dome environment.  Mayle will compete for the #5 receiver spot.

Charles Gaines  Cornerback, Round 6, Pick 13 (189), 5'10" 180 Louisville.  Do the Browns need a cornerback with two Pro Bowlers (Joe Haden and Tramon Williams)  plus rookies  K'Waun Williams, Pierre Desir and Justin Gilbert? Yes, because Desir and especially Gilbert struggled as rookies.   Gilbert is trying to play himself out of the league despite being a first round pick, and Desir was also very erratic.

Malcolm Johnson Fullback and H-Back, Round 6, Pick 19 (195) (from Texans). 6'2" 231, Mississippi St.   This fellow is listed as a tight end, but he played both fullback and tight end in college.  My guess is that he will be a fullback or H-Back type player used for run blocking.  

Randall Telfer, Tight End, Round 6, Pick 22 (198) (from Cardinals).   6'4" 250 USC .  Telfer is regarded highly as a blocker, rather than a pass catcher.   The Browns already have receiving tight ends in Gary Barnidge,  Rob Housler and Jim Dray

Hayes Pullard, Inside Linebacker, Round 7, Pick 2 (219) (from Patriots through Titans) 6'0" 240 USC .  They say he is good in pass coverage.  

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Cornerback, Round 7, Pick 24 (241) (from Cardinals) 5'9" 192 Oregon.   This guy was highly rated but coming back from serious knee surgery.  This is the kind of guy the Browns used to take in the second round.  


 

Elliot's 2015 Mock Draft 2.0 Cleveland Browns

   Of course it is impossible to predict who the Browns will draft this April 30, but that minor detail won't stop the Village Elliot.  
      Channelling my inner Ray Farmer, my overall plan is to build a tough defense and fix the worst ranked run defense in the NFL, while building a ball control, cold weather offense.  I don't think we are going to be in the top 15 in passing offense, but we could realistically build a top 5 running game, and that would be good enough to win and make the playoffs.  

     I know everyone wants a quarterback in Round 1. But I predict that we will not bundle a bunch of draft picks for the Tennessee Titans to move up and take Marcus Mariota.  The Philadelphia Eagles will do that because Chip Kelly is Mariota's former college coach.

     Plus in my view there are several quarterbacks with potential to be a starter in the NFL, but no superstars this year.  I think Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion are not far behind Mariota and Winston.  I think we can nab one in the second round or maybe as late as Round 4.

    In the first round, we have to stop the run, folks.  Last in the NFL is just not quite good enough, okay?  A lot of mock drafts have us taking Danny Shelton, massive beast who played the Nost Tackle position for Washington.  Originally I was on board with that, but then I found out that he ran a 5.66 time in the 40 yard dash.   Jimminy Christmas, there are old ladies at my Mom's retirement residence who can push their walkers faster than that.   Plus the 9 sacks he got don't translate to the NFL, as he got four in one game against a Division I AA team, and 2 more against an undermanned Hawaii team.    No, 5.66 is far too slow for the first round.   Instead I like Malcolm Brown, a nose tackle from Texas who had 71 tackles last year.   I'll go with him over Shelton who I believe is going to slide a bit.  

Then I have us taking La'el Collins, a terrific run blocking Right Tackle out of LSU.   Mitchell Schwartz is very good, but not dominant in the run game.   Mitchell and John Greco thus will fight it out for right guard, but we are going to run off right tackle this year.

La'el Collins is going to push people out of his way.  Draft him.  

I want a big physical receiver with good hands who can catch a wet ball in cold weather on a sloppy field.  I'm not opposed to a downfield burner who is at the top of his game in a dome stadium, but Browns fans have to get it into their brains that we really are trying to win playoff games in Cleveland in the near future.  David Funchess is a guy who is almost big enough to be a tight end. That's the guy I want in Round 2. 

As long as Petty, Hundley and Mannion are undrafted, the Browns may be content to hang back, even trading back a few spots.  But if necessary they will trade up to get one of the three.   Mannion is the most boring choice, and a few mocks are really down on him because he is slow.  But the Browns have pass blocking, and this kid has an arm that rivals Winston's.   Take him in Round 3 or even Round 2 if necessary. 

Sean Mannion looks good in bright orange.   

In Round 4, here again I am not thinking about Air Coryell, but again who fits a cold weather football team?   How about Jesse James, a big tight end from Penn State, one of the best run blockers among tight ends.  Then for the second pick in the round, let's take Trey  Flowers, an Outside Linebacker from Arkansas

I'm not talking about running once in a while for our Browns. No, I think we will need to run the ball 60% of the time.  I want to build a top 5 running game that is good for well over 2000 yards.  So even though we have two good backs, I draft a big running back in David Cobb from Minnesota in Round 5, and follow up with a fullback in Aaron Ripkowski from Oklahoma.  The Browns also need a punt returner, so how about someone like Marcus Murphy from Missouri.  He is a scatback running back and also ran back kickoffs and punts in college, and he  broke several kick returns for touchdowns in his career. 

In the seventh round, how about a kicker?   Justin Manton from Louisiana Monroe is an interesting guy because he is accurate, has a strong leg and can also punt.  I would look at him strictly as a placekicking challenger for Garrett Hartley.  

Round 1:   Malcolm Brown, NT, Texas

                 La'el Collins, ROT, LSU

Round 2:  Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan State

Round 3:  Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State

               

Round 4:   Jesse James, TE, Penn State

                 Trey Flowers, OLB, Arkansas

Round 5:  David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

Round 6:  Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma
                Marcus Murphy, RB/KR Missouri

Round 7:   Justin Manton, K, Louisiana Monroe