Salary Cap 101 Carryover Salary Cap in the NFL

This year the NFL is allow teams a "carryover" salary cap in which unspent 2013 salary money can be spent in 2014.  Last year Joe Banner of the Cleveland Browns underspent the salary cap by $24 million dollars which gets added to the Browns 2014 figure.  So all the NFL teams are allotted $133 Million dollars this year, but the Browns can actually spend an additional $24 million, or up to $157 million, if they want to.  In other words, the rules are set up to allow the Browns to overspend in 2014 because they underspent in t 2013.   

However, the Carryover money is sort of like a savings account.  Once you spend it, it's gone.  If they were to spend $157 million this year, they would be obliged to cut back to $133 million next year.   I think they are going to wait until they feel that they are legit Super Bowl contenders.

     It might also be mentioned that if players and their agents knew that the Browns were going to underspend in 2013, probably free agents would have been less inclined to sign with them. They got away with it once, but in my view it was the right thing to do to let Banner go, otherwise what free agent would ever trust the Browns again?

Would the Browns be able to sign a Free Agent like Paul Kruger, if he had known in advance that they planned to tank the season to the tune of some $24 Million?

As it is, right now (June 2014) they are about at $133 million, which is their annual salary cap "allowance."  They could try to sign a player or two if there are some guys who are cut by other teams with cap problems.  The Browns could carry an expensive player if they want.  They could also create some additional room by trading Ahtyba Rubin, who is a very good player, but who also has a very big salary, with most of it not being guaranteed.

     The Browns have fared very well this year because their GM, Ray Farmer, has understood the rules better than his rivals.  For example, by giving Andrew Hawkins a front loaded deal as a restricted free agent, the Bengals could not match it because they did not have the 2014 salary cap room.  

Browns GM Ray Farmer has been brilliant this off-season, by manipulating the salary cap rules in favor of the Browns.  

    Similarly, Farmer was able to get a multiyear deal done for Pro Bowl center Alex Mack, by manipulating the Franchise Tag (or Transition Tag) rules.  At the beginning of the off-season, the sportswriters were saying there was no way that the Browns could sign Mack to a multiyear deal.  

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Salary Cap Math 101: Salary Cap Effect on Trades

       This article discusses the basics of the NFL salary cap, as an aid to the armchair analyst in the Hot Stove League.   I'm just a fan and don't necessarily know that much, but I do know that the salary cap affects the moves that each team can realistically make.  

     Even professional sportswriters sometimes make the mistake of believing rumors that absolutely violate common sense.  

     Here's what you need to know:

   

     1.  Every team in the NFL has a limit to how much salary they can spend in a given year.  It should be obvious that good players are usually paid more money than less talented players, so if your team is spending a lot of money on player salaries, that is usually a good thing. 

    2.  There is a huge difference between salary  and bonus (guaranteed) money.  For example, if a player has a five year contract for $50 million dollars with 20 million guaranteed, then the annual charge is $10 million dollars for each year ($6 M salary and $4M guaranteed bonus).   However, suppose the team decides to trade the guy after year 1.   In this case the team clears $6 M of salary in year 2, but ALL of the remaining bonus gets charged to the cap or $16 M). It's not a fine that the owner can just write a check for.  The team has to actually CUT $16 worth of payroll in Year 2 which is a disaster for that year.  See below: 

  

Case i:  Player plays out his contract as planned.

Year 1  Year 2   Year 3  Year 4  Year 5

$10 M   $ 10 M    $10 M $10 M   $10 M

Case ii:  Player is traded after year 1.  

Year 1  Year 2   Year 3  Year 4  Year 5

$10 M   $ 16 M     $0 M    $0 M      $0 M

Year 3 and out are ok because the obligation to pay the guy is over, but basically in Year 2 the team is going to have to cut some really good players to cover the trade.  In this example they have to clear 16 million dollars in salary spending just to get rid of the guy.   

So in other words if a guy has bonus money in his contract, the team that trades him is going to get a big salary cap penalty for the year in which  the trade is made.   Got it? 

Let's consider a real example.  This year this was a rumor that the Cowboys were trying to trade Tony Romo in order to move up in the NFL draft.  Could that be true?  What you do is look up Romo's salary cap situation from a site like overthecap.com, and you find the following line  ( http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Tony%20Romo&Position=QB&Team=Cowboys  ):

Year	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus	Workout Bonus	Other Bonus	Cap Number	Dead Money	Cap Savings
2014	$1,000,000	$10,773,000	$0	$0	$0	$11,773,000	$49,181,000	($29,908,000)
2015	$17,000,000	$10,773,000	$0	$0	$0	$27,773,000	$37,408,000	($9,635,000)
2016	$8,500,000	$9,135,000	$0	$0	$0	$17,635,000	$19,135,000	($1,500,000)
2017	$14,000,000	$7,500,000	$0	$0	$0	$21,500,000	$10,000,000	$11,500,000
2018	$19,500,000	$2,500,000	$0	$0	$0	$22,000,000	$2,500,000	$19,500,000
2019	$20,500,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$20,500,000	$0	$20,500,000

Rom was paid a preposterous bonus, meaning that if the Cowboys were to cut or trade him this year, it would lower their salary cap in 2014 by an incredible $29,908,000.  That's how even amateurs like me knew that the Cowboys simply could not trade Romo no matter how much they might want to. They simply can not absorb the salary cap hit that they would take.  Hence any trade rumor involving Romo is 99% likely to be false unless Tony decided to restructure his contract to facilitate the move. Even then, it is nearly impossible in 2014 given the magnitude of the money involved.   Romo would basically have to give back 20 or 30 million dollars to get traded.  That's not very likely.  

Jerry Jones is one of the dumbest GM's in history, and loves to give guaranteed money away, which is great for guys like Tony Romo.  But you should disbelieve any rumor that Romo is going to be traded because that is almost impossible due to the salary cap.  

If you look at the Salary Cap, it is easy to see that the Cowboys are the worst managed team in the NFL.  Hopefully, Browns' owner Jimmy Haslam 3 will see how Jones has screwed up his team and avoid the same temptation.   

In any case,  for a trade to go forward, the principals have to have a relatively small amount of money tied up in signing bonuses (i.e., guaranteed money).  Either that or the trading team would have to be way under the cap.  For example, the Browns or Raiders could trade away a major player if they chose to because they can absorb the current year salary cap penalty.  At the same time they are able to pay large (non-guaranteed) salaries in 2014 because of their low payrolls compared to the cap limit. 

One guy that might be available from the Browns is Ahtyba Rubin, even though he is a very good player who can play end or tackle in either a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment.   The Browns could save $6.6 million dollars versus the cap if they could trade him (versus his total salary plus bonus of 8.2 M this year).  Or, because they have the cap room, they might just keep him or try to renegotiate him down.
 

Ahtyba Rubin has a big salary cap number, and might be used in trade even though he is a very good player.  

Joe Nuxhall's Debut with the Reds, 70 Years Ago Today.

Today June 10 2014 marks 70 years since Joe Nuxhall made his debut with the Cincinnati Reds as a 14 year old schoolboy.  Back in 1944, talent was a little thin, owing to the fact that everyone was fighting Hitler and Tojo.  So the Reds decided to try out a guy who was too young to go to the Army.  Joe came from Hamilton High, where my Dad and many other friends and family members also attended.  Joe was a big strong farm kid, and threw very hard. What the heck, lefthanders don't grow on trees!

Joe got into a game when the Reds were being slaughtered 13-0.  He only lasted 2/3 of an inning giving up two hits and five walks. After that they sent Joe down to the minors and the following year he returned to high school. 

After completing High School, he persevered in the minor leagues for a few and made it back to the bigs in 1952.  He played ball for 16 years at the Major League level, and then he was the Red's announcer for many years.  I remember he was also the batting practice pitcher for the Big Red Machine, and could throw for hours every day.

One time I used Joe as a sermon illustration to tell the story of David and Goliath.  My point was that a farm kid with a good arm is not to be trifled with, and thus the Biblical account is not so ridiculous.  I figured that David knew what he was doing, selecting aerodynamically smooth stones from a brook rather than rough stones from the ground.  He could probably sling those stones at 120 miles per hour or so, enough to fracture a person's skull. David was probably aiming for his nose and missed by four inches, hitting him in the forehead.   Goliath had no chance! 

Joe Nuxhall and Marty Brennaman.  

I used to like it when The Old Lefthander would interview a new player being brought up to the big leagues for the first time.  It was kind of like a Dad interviewing his son.  Joe would give fatherly advice, in the form of an interview question.  Like,

"Do you have to just relax and let your natural abilities take over?"

"Do you need to trust in your catcher and let him call the game for you?"

"Are you going to enjoy every minute of your Big League career?"

I always thought they should have put Joe's statue in front of the stadium.  He was not the best player in Red's history, but I believe he was the most loved.  

The Chuck and Duck Offense

  Definitely, most football fans prefer the Chuck and Duck offense.   That term was originally used by Coach Buddy Ryan to describe the "Run and Shoot" offense in which you have four or even five receivers.  In other words, the Chuck and Duck team loads up on quarterbacks and wide receivers, often neglecting everything else.  The only problem is that football is a team game, so when you do that you almost never win. 

Does the Chuck and Duck offense work?  Um, no.  

    Nevertheless, greedy owners, as well as many fans, are attracted to strong armed quarterbacks, especially if they can scramble. They also want to load up on speedy wide receivers and throw the bomb as often as possible.   But if your team can't protect the quarterback, he eventually gets killed. 

     Because of the team aspect, quarterbacks usually don't perform well if the team sucks.   That should have been obvious when the Browns signed Jeff Garcia, who played great for San Francisco, but not so good for Cleveland. Then Garcia went on to star again for Philadelphia and Tampa Bay and even made the Pro Bowl.  

Was quarterback Jeff Garcia to blame for the Browns 4-12 showing in 2004 ?   If so, how did he make the Pro Bowl three times before coming to Cleveland, and once more after he left? 

     Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder come to mind as stupid owners that love to spend money on quarterbacks and wide receivers, and not so much on other positions.   Jones has saddled his team with Tony Romo, who at age 34 has such a huge contract that he is virtually untradable.  Like it or not, the Cowboys are stuck with him.  They also have bad boy wide receiver Dez Bryant, while their defense was one of the worst in NFL history in 2013.   

Would you want either of these guys calling the football shots for your team?  I predict these guys will be dwelling in the basement of the NFC East for years to come, despite incredible fan bases and years of accumulated football smarts in their organizations.  

    Snyder, of course, sabotaged his team by trading three first round draft picks and one second round pick for Robert Griffin III, who has had some injuries and clashes with the coaching staff.  I predict that both of those teams will continue their downward slides in 2014.   Let's hope that the Browns don't follow this model.  

    In the AFC North, you have to be able to play in cold weather.  If a team plays in a dome, or in the south, it might make more sense to try to acquire wide receivers with great speed.  But when it's cold and windy, you want big physical guys that are able to adjust to the ball and outfight the defenders. Better yet, draft linemen and defenders rather than trying to build an explosive passing game.  

    With the big front seven that the Browns have, and now with the talent they have in the defensive backfield,  I don't think that other teams will be able to move the ball very effectively against them.  

     The Browns have been a Chuck and Duck team for a long time, blowing draft choices and free agent dollars on quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, Colt McCoy, Brandon Weeden, Brady Quinn and others.   
     Remember the 2009 season?  They tried to use the four wide receiver formation with such stud receivers as Mohammad Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Mike Furrey and Chansi Stuckey.  Brady Quinn was the fireball quarterback for that operation, which turned out to be a complete disaster.  The solution?  Fire the quarterback, of course.  Hello, Jake Delhomme.  And on and on...

    So, what's new?  Again the Browns have a new quarterback in Johnny Manziel, but I think Ray Farmer is building a much better team overall. Wide receiver is probably the weakest part of the team, but they will be able to move the ball on the ground and they are four deep at tight end. They have drafted Joel Bittonio, who may wind up a guard, and added  Ken Dray as a second blocking tight end.    They also added a running back in Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.  They also added Andrew Hawkins as a slot receiver and wideout, as well as veterans Nate Burleson and Miles Austin.  

     Moreover, the defense is now stacked.  They have three guys (Rubin, Bryant and Taylor) who are quick enough to play defensive end but big enough to play nose tackle.  They have added  guys in ILB Karlos Dansby and SS Donte Whitner who are much more effective in pass coverage than their predecessors.  With Justin Gilbert and Pierre Desir joining Pro Bowler and new millionaire Joe Haden, the Browns will be able to play man-to-man coverage and turn the Front 7 loose to do their thing.  If there is a weakness in this defense, I don't know what it is.  

  

     Others may complain about the lack of wide receiving talent, which is true.   But  I'll go with the Browns defense over any Chuck and Duck offense, thank you very much.   

    

The Village Elliot's Predictions for the 2014 NFL Draft-Cleveland Browns

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POST SCRIPT:  I got everything wrong.  I was sort of right that they did not trade up for Manziel, and did not draft him at four.  I was also right that the qbs would go  a little later, for the most part. But I am surprised that the Browns had Manziel ranked so highly.

My upset prediction that Khalil Mack would be the top pick also whiffed.  

Watkins did not slide, and in fact Buffalo traded up for him, giving the Browns a fantastic deal. 

Jake Matthews was apparently not the obvious pick at #4.

The Browns did trade up from #26, although not for Derek Carr but instead Johnny Manziel.  

The Cowboys had some restraint to not take Manziel at #16.  I know that hurt.

whiff! whiff!  whiff!  whiff! whiff!

The Village Elliot whiffed on just about all predictions.  I did get it right that two other Texa A&M guys were selected ahead of Manziel, and I was also right that the qbs were taken mid to late first round.    However, the draft party at Roosters was really, really fun.  I hope we can do that again. 

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   This is really impossible, trying to predict the unpredictable NFL draft, but here goes.  It should be good for a laugh, at least...

1.  The Browns are not drafting Johnny Manziel.  This was decided when Joe Banner was fired by the Browns.  In Banner's mock draft, Manziel was the clear number one overall pick, but Banner was going to make a brave move by bunding three or four first round picks for Houston's first overall pick.  Then the Browns would install a pistol read option offense.  Coach Rob Chudzinksi and OC Norv Turner balked and they were fired.  They bounced the idea off several head coaching candidates and they walked out.  Finally owner Jimmy Haslam figured out that Banner was a crackpot and fired him.   I don't think they are going back to Banner's plan.

Since Banner has been fired, I don't see the Browns going back to the original plan of drafting Johnny Manziel.

2.  Khalil Mack and Jadeveon Clowney will probably go 1-2.  They are the premier defensive picks.  I see Mack going to Houston and Clowney to the St Louis Rams. 

3.  Sammy Watkins will slide a little bit.  Most reporters say that Sammy Watkins is a sure-fire All Pro, but I don't agree.  Early on, they were saying that he was 6'2" and could run a 4.2 or 4.3 40 yard dash.  In reality he measured up at 6'1" and ran a 4.4 at Pro Day, which is very good but not what we were promised.  But for some reason the press continues to rate him with the Top 5 sure-fire Pro Bownl athletes.  My guess is that he slides a few spots, maybe to 9 or 10.   I think Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans will be drafted ahead of Watkins, maybe even by the Browns.   

Sammy Watkins is really good.  But it's a deep class and Mike Evans might be even better. 

4.  I see stud left tackle Greg Robinson going next to the Jaguars, leaving Jake Matthews as the next best guy, also a left tackle.  The Browns will try to trade out, but probably won't get a taker, so I think they go ahead and take Matthews. You have to take a guy if you feel he is going to be an All Pro, even if you don't really need him.  So either Matthews or Joe Thomas will have to switch to the right side, with Mitchell Schwartz moving to guard.   The Browns will run the ball AND pass it in 2014. 

Jake Matthews is the nephew of Clay Matthews and son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews.  Gotta take a guy like that even if you don't really need to fill a left tackle.   

5.  The Browns will try to trade up from Number 26 to take a quarterback. I think they will try to get Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Blake Bortles or Terry Bridgewater, probably in the teens.  I think Johnny Manziel will also go around that range, maybe at number 16 to Dallas.   Jerry Jones can not pass him up.  The Cowboys had a historically bad defense last year, allowing the third highest yardage total in NFL history.  So what does a guy like Jerry Jones do to fix that defense?  That's right, draft a new quarterback. 

Is Jerry Jones crazy?  Yes.  That's why he is the most likely guy to have Johnny Manziel on his team. 


6.  A lot of teams like Derek Carr, and the Browns might not want to spend the firepower to get him.  The Browns may move up or stay at 26, and I think that Jimmy Garoppolo might be the guy they want.  The Browns may offer Ahtyba Rubin to a team like Oakland or Jacksonville to move up. 


7.  No matter what happens, it will be a lot of fun.  I'll be in Xenia Ohio with the Dice Brothers eating chicken wings and arguing. 

Is Jimmy Haslam III (Finally) Bringing Sanity to the Browns?

Jimmy Haslam has some reason to smile now.  

     For the first time in what seems like centuries, almost all the off-season moves for the Cleveland Browns have been good.  The craziness of the past few years has stopped, at least up to the point of the NFL draft, and I can't believe it.   Jimmy Haslam, Ray Farmer and the Browns front office deserve great credit.  

    As an amateur sportswriter, I have been bitterly critical of the Browns management.  I have complained that Jimmy Haslam III is not a resident owner since he is based in Knoxville Tennessee rather than Ohio.  Plus as a Steeler fan, I wasn't sure whether there he would protect Cleveland's interest when the people from LA come calling to try to persuade the Browns or some other NFL team to move.    Then there is the matter of a potential of an indictment involving the Pilot Flying J discount-shaving scandal which may break any time.  But for the moment, smart football moves appear to be prevailing in Cleveland. 

     Last year, the $24 million dollar question was why the Browns deliberately tanked the 2013 season.  In addition to underspending the salary cap by $24 million dollars, the Browns traded 2013 draft picks for 2014 picks and traded  running back Trent Richardson for a number one 2014 pick. Make no mistake, we were a few players short in 2014, and that could have made some difference. Tanking the season is not illegal, at least in the sense of diverting money and draft picks to future years, but it is unethical.  The fans expect the team to try to win as many games as possible every year, no matter what.   It gave the franchise another black eye and made it unattractive to prospective free agents.   It got to be so bad that the Browns couldn't hire a Head Coach, as most candidates just walked away from them.   The main question was whether this was Haslam's idea?  Or was it Banner's? 

    Well that question was answered when Haslam fired Banner.  He also fired GM Mike Lombardi, who in my mind was more honest than Banner but had a terrible draft (zero starters from 2013 draftees) and didn't get good results from free agents either.  

Ray Farmer has made some great moves, signing Alex Mack when the critics said it was impossible, prying loose Andrew Hawkins from the Bengals, and bring two Pro Bowlers to Cleveland in Karlos Dansby and Donte Whitner.  In my opinion, none of this could ever have happened with Banner and Lombardi calling the shots. 

      Funny thing.  As soon as Banner left, and Ray Farmer took over, he made the smart move of "franchise tagging"  Pro Bowl center Alex Mack, which led to a long term commitment with a good player.   The Browns signed quality free agents like Pro Bowlers Donte Whitner and Karlos Dansby; halfback Ben Tate and a true fullback in Chris Pressley. Farmer made mincemeat of the rival Cincinnati Bengals, signing slot receiver Andrew Hawkins to replace drug addicted Lombardi signee Davonne Bess.    The Bengals wanted to match the Browns offer, but Farmer used his 2014 cap advantage to structure a front-loaded deal that the Bengals couldn't match (lesson learned:  read the rules).  And most importantly, that talk about trading away our first round draft picks to move up and take a qb (namely Johnny Manziel) went away. Mind, I won't criticize if Manziel is selected by the Browns, but I would have complained if they had decided to mortgage the future by trading away 3 or 4 first round picks for him or any other quarterback in a year in which most experts say there is no true "franchise quarterback" of Andrew Luck's stature. 

     There's still time to screw this up, but my guess is that Ray Farmer knows what he is doing.   I think they are going to draft good players and resist the fan's clamor to draft a quarterback no matter what. In the meantime, the Browns are going to have a normal payroll this year.   It'll  be interesting on May 8 when the NFL draft finally arrives.  

Cleveland Browns Tight Ends May Be the Best

     True football junkies care about the tight end position, so this is for you.  Believe it or not, the Browns carried four tight ends last year, and they have five tight ends on the roster right now.  Jordan Cameron was the star, of course, making the Pro Bowl for the first time. Many people consider him to be THE Browns tight end.  

     
Jordan Cameron made the Pro Bowl, based on catching the ball  80 times for  917 yards.

     However, though not very many people noticed, Norv Turner had the Browns in a lot of two tight end formations last year.  Gary Barnidge also played in more than half the snaps (789 for Gary, and 971 for Jordan, if you can believe that). Barnidge is a competent receiver and blocker, but not really a road grader like Kellen Davis (who they got rid of at the end of training camp, and who then picked up a Superbowl ring with Seattle).  

Everything we hear about Gary Barnidge off the field is great.  Here he is giving his cleats to a young fan after the Browns beat Baltimore last year.  He is one of my favorite Browns, but man this is a tough, tough position this year...  

     MarQueis Gray was the third tight end and was also used as the quarterback for the Browns' "wildcat" formation for what it's worth.  He started two games for the Browns last year and participated in 279 snaps while you were not looking.  The Browns seem to be very high on his athleticism, but he is still learning the position. He played quarterback at Minnesota.  He also has been a contributor to the Browns on special teams.  So he may be the most interesting athlete at the position, but how far has he progressed at the tight end position??  Can he overtake Barnidge on the depth chart? 

MarQueis Gray was the third string tight end and also got in some snaps at quarterback in the Wildcat.  

    The Browns also signed Jim Dray, who comes with a reputation for being a very hard-nosed run blocker.  I think he is likely to wind up as the number two tight end behind Cameron, and the Browns are going to be able to run better than last year's team.  

    I'm not sure why they signed Andre Smith last year, although he certainly has the size to be a run blocker.  He was another of Banner and Lombardi's minimum wage guys last year.  Let's just say it will be an uphill battle to make the team this year.  

    Given that they also have a true fullback this year in Chris Pressley, my guess is they are probably going to drop at least one and perhaps two of last year's tight ends.  Barnidge is going to play in the NFL somewhere, but Gray may have to beat him out to make the team.  This year there is actually both quality and depth at this position.  

84 Cameron, Jordan TE 6-5 249 25 4 USC
81 Dray, Jim                TE 6-5 255 27 5 Stanford
82 Barnidge, Gary TE 6-6 250 28  7 Louisville
47 Gray, MarQueis TE 6-4 242 24 2 Minnesota
87 Smith, Andre        TE 6-4 270 25 3 Virginia Tech

How Good is the Browns' Offensive Line?

Although many fans are fixated only on the quarterback position, last time I checked the NFL is planning to once again require that 11 guys participate in each offensive play.  So it looks like the Browns are going to develop other players, not just quarterbacks. 

No fan wants their team to draft an offensive lineman, it seems.   It is just more boring than a skill position guy.

But the consensus view from analysts is that there are five guys that are likely Pro Bowl calibre guys in the 2014 draft:   DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney,  OLB Khalil Mack, LT Greg Robinson, LT Jake Matthews, and WR Sammy Watkins and  probably in about that order. Just to clarify, the Village Elliot actually likes WR Mike Evans better than Watkins, but it would be fair to say that that is not the majority opinion.

    So there is a very good chance that a tackle might be the best available pick when it is the Browns' turn at number 4.  Many people think a tackle would be a horrible pick, especially since we already have a great left tackle in Joe Thomas, so someone would have to move to the right side.  Of course right tackle is considered slightly less important than the left tackle (passer's blind side protector) position.

     

Joe Thomas is very tough in pass protection, shown here saving Seneca Wallace's hide.   

      However, before dismissing this idea out of hand, I am going to subject my readers to another rant about the OL.  In fact, I have been on a rampage all off season.  

       The fact is that, even though the Browns had two Pro Bowlers at OL (Thomas and C Alex Mack), overall they had a terrible year. Note, moreover in football it really matters how good your weakest guy is.  The prime pass rusher isn't coming after Thomas or Mack.  Instead they are coming after your weakest guy.  

Alex Mack ain't going anywhere folks.  He's a Cleveland Brown.    

        Consider this:              

    The Browns were FIRST in the  NFL in hits allowed on the quarterback with a (literally) staggering 121.  By comparison, the Bengals allowed only 47.  No wonder we couldn't beat them.  

   

     The Browns were THIRD in the NFL in sacks allowed, with 49.  

         Due in part to the pounding taken by the qbs, there were four injuries to qbs that caused them to miss games:  Hoyer out for the year with an ACL; a concussion and hand injury for Brandon Weeden; and a concussion for Jason Campbell.   The Browns have lost their first string quarterback every year since 2001, if you can believe that.  

      I'm tired of that. And to all you kiddies out there that think that all the Browns need is a new quarterback, I'm here to tell you that your boy is going to get pasted until and unless the Browns upgrade their offensive line.  

     The running game had TERRIBLE results, 27th out of 32 teams, with a good number of yards turned in from wide receiver reverses. Feature back  Willis McGahee turned in 2.7 yards per carry, one of the lowest per-carry averages in history.   

     I'm not sure what to think about Mitchell Schwartz.  In general line play is hard to evaluate because they are always banged up to some degree.   But many observers believe that Mitchell's play was not as strong in 2013 as it was for his rookie year. On the other hand, Mitchell played ever snap on offense last year, indicating he is one tough amigo. Maybe what might happen is that the Browns will acquire a right tackle and then shift Mitchell to a guard position.

The Browns also struggled at both guard positions.  Jason Pinkston on the right and John Greco on the left were both injured for much of the year.    Shaun Lauvao and Oniel Cousins both saw extensive playing time, but did not establish themselves.  Put it this way, GM Ray Farmer did not fight for them to stay.  

     The Browns will have to evaluate the talent on the roster to determine whether any of the holdovers will be able to contribute as starters.      If not, they might draft a starter next month for the O-Line, and they still have enough money to sign a good lineman if one should be come available at some point.
     In the best case scenario, I see the Browns drafting a lineman as a starter in an early round.  It might be at the number four overall position in the first round, but I could just as easily see them trading down and picking an O-Lineman in a later round.  They may also sign a veteran after training camp cutdowns begin.   I look for two new starters on the O-Line and maybe even three. 

    It is not foolish to add a guy who the scouts think can develop in to an All Pro right tackle via the fourth overall pick in the first round if that is the way it plays out.  If that fellow is Jake Matthews, nephew of Cleveland Browns star Clay Matthews and son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, Browns fans should welcome him with open arms.  There is still a lot of work that needs to be done to improve the team and specifically the offensive line.     

Mike Evans: a Future All-Pro Wide Receiver?

    Mike Evans, not Sammy Watkins, should be the first receiver picked in the upcoming NFL draft.  Watkins is a great talent, but I believe Evans is even better.  Sammy has excellent speed, 4.43 secs for the 40 yard dash, which is very good indeed but not necessarily a record.  Some people were predicting Watkins would be in the 4.3 range or even 4.2.   He also turned out to be 6'1", rather than 6'2" as he had been listed in college. 

Evans is a beast, with the size and strength to rip the ball away from defenders and then knock people over on his way downfield.  At 6'5 and 231 lbs, I like Evans better than the more famous Watkins.  Watkins is 4 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter but is a full 0.1 seconds faster in the 40 yard dash. 

 

Mike is not slow either, at 4.53 seconds for the 40.  But what sets him apart is his size.  He is 6'5" and 231 pounds.   He picked up 1322 yards on 65 catches (over 20 yards per reception) with 12 TDs in 12 games, playing in the SEC Conference.. Although overshadowed by media sensation Johnny (Football) Manziel, he was a legit All-American talent. 

 

    Watkins also piled up great stats at Clemson in the ACC, getting the same number of TDs, with 142 more yards in one more game than Evans.  Watkins yards per reception average was 14.2 versus 20.3 for Evans. 

 

    To me it is better to average 20.3 yards per reception in the SEC than 14.2 yards per reception in the ACC. 

 

     Moreover, Evans was only a sophomore last year, and is still improving rapidly.  It seems to me that he has a much higher ceiling than Watkins, who is the more polished of the two.  Watkins can play anywhere, but I think the smaller faster guy might be especially suited for a dome team or southern team, whereas Evans size and strength might be appealing to a cold weather natural turf team like the Browns. 

    But it is going to be hard to pass up a guy who is as big and fast as Evans.  I believe he will be first receiver taken, rather than Watkins.  Watkins, though enormously talented, is probably not really a top five pick as many sportswriters have suggested.  I think his combine performance suggests he is not quite as superhuman as previously believed, and so he might get picked around tenth.   Evans is so talented he might get picked around fifth. 

 

   I think the Browns might be  looking for prospective All Pros on defense; namely Khalil Mack or Jadeveon Clowney.  But if those guys are not available the next logical suspects are stud left tackles Greg Robinson or , Jake Mathews.  Because that is the same position currently occupied by All Pro Joe Thomas, someone would have to shift to the right side.  If the Browns would rather not do that, then Evans might be a legitimate possibility.  Alternatively they might trade down or go for their favorite quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo?  Derek Carr?  I don't believe it is Manziel, Bortles or Bridgewater, the consensus Big Three this year).  

M

Northwestern University Football Players Unionizing?

   

   The NCAA should never have let the smart kids play football!  Now the Chicago District of the National Labor Relations Board has ruled that Northwestern University  football players are permitted to unionize, meaning that they are considered employees of Northwestern University.  This may not seem like a big deal, but it could eventually shake the foundations of college sports, which are currently run as a monopoly controlled by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). 

 

 

Now that Northwestern University football players are allowed to unionize, the NCAA's hypocrisy may finally be exposed.

 

    I believe that this is the correct decision and predict that the student athletes are going to continue to  kick the NCAA's butt in court. 

 

    The NCAA is currently allowed to make millions of dollars from college football, and they act like they are protecting the players' virginity by preventing them from selling their autographs, or heaven forbid someone in America might sell a t shirt or something.  Why is it fair for a video game to have a player's picture on it, and make millions of dollars, and no money goes to that player, only to the NCAA? 

 

    Why is okay for the NCAA to prevent student athletes from getting summer jobs?  Isn't that kind of like shaking kids down for their lunch money? 

 

   Why is it considered okay for players to get concussions, knee injuries and other potential long-term health issues?  If these things happened to a coal miner, the employer would have to pay a pile of money to take care of them.  But because it happens to a student athlete, it's considered okay for schools to provide medical care while they are in school.  But they are  allowed to just leave these players to rot when they get older.   Why is that considered fair?

 

     The NCAA argues that players are, uh, compensated by getting a free scholarship.  Well look,  if you agree that the scholarship is a form of  compensation, then you are basically admitting that the student athletes are professionals.  In that case, it becomes a discussion of what they are  worth.   Shouldn't it  be all right to have a professional representative negotiate how much compensation they are entitled to?  That's one facet of unionization.  

 

Cartoon Credit:  MacLeod Cartoons.

 

      The NCAA argues that it is an amateur association, but in reality they make millions and millions of dollars and use it to pay salaries and make themselves rich.  Players have to work very hard, and risk serious injury while they get paid nothing and yet the coach may make millions of dollars per year while wielding almost complete control over the players.   Some nonprofit!

 

     What the court has ruled is that if it barks like a dog, has four legs like a dog, sits up and begs like a dog, it probably is in fact a dog.  Playing football is in fact a job and the schools can not continue to prevent players from being compensated and taken care of.   

 

      No doubt the NCAA will appeal and argue that the players should continue tobe given some sort of quasi-slave status.  But I think they will lose.  The NCAA is just too powerful and makes too much money to justify taking it away from student athletes. 

 

    Clearly, if the unionization decision stands,  this is going to change the way that college sports are run.  In the long run it will be a better deal for the student athletes.  It might give an advantage to some schools which are better situated to have rich alumni and big media contracts.  But overall I have no doubt that it is going to result in a fairer system, with less power concentrated in the hands of the NCAA. 

 

    Stay tuned...it will be a wild legal ride for a while. 

 

 

 

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Rookie QB? Ask the Buffalo Bills....

     The 2013 Buffalo Bills (which happen to have been Coach Pettine's team in 2013, by the way)  are an interesting case study. Much like the Browns, they have had mediocre production from the QB position for a number of years. In 2013, they had the opportunity to draft the first QB in E. J. Manuel. What's not to like? 6'4" 237 lbs, fast and smart with a good arm, played in the ACC.

Would first round pick E. J. Manuel propel the Bills into the playoffs?   Not quite....

    Manuel was installed as the starter for the Bills. He had some decent games and won a few for the Bills. But the Bills were 6-10 again this year, same as last year. Truth to tell, when Manuel got injured the Bills eventually installed Thad Lewis (the Browns number 3 qb in 2012), who actually played a little better than Manuel, with higher qb rating and lower INT percentage, etc. So getting the big strong qb did not lead to an instant turnaround, but he is probably an upgrade--over time--compared to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Lewis. I see at least 5 guys that I think may be similar to Manuel--good enough to start, but not a one-man team. If you are willing to wait till 2015 and 2016 they will be worth it. But for just one year, it is hard to compete against a less talented guy that has some NFL experience. 

Thad Lewis is undersized, not as gifted an athlete as E. J. Manuel, but because of his experience and grit he was a bit better than E. J. last year. 

     Mike Lombardi liked to congratulate himself for finding a potential starting qb in Brian Hoyer. I think he is ok as a caretaker type qb, though eventually he will be overtaken by one of the young guys. But the Browns also cut Thad Lewis to sign Hoyer, and Lewis might be just as good as Hoyer. In 2013 I would say that Lewis was better than Manuel. 

 

     If the Browns do improve their team in 2014, I'm looking for most of the improvement to come from the running game, linebacking, O-LIne and defensive backfield, rather than the qb position.