Review of the Browns 2018 Draft

The last time the Browns drafted a quarterback and a cornerback in the same round ?   Just four years ago, amazingly enough.  So, is Mayfield the next Johnny Manziel, and is Denzel Ward going to be the next Justin Gilbert?  Stay tuned Browns fans.  

   The Browns had an excellent draft by any measure.  Some fans are complaining, they should have taken so-and-so, and nobody else in the NFL is worth drafting.  Of course, that's nonsense.  If you have a guy who can throw the ball farther than John Elway, it can't be that bad.

     Baker Mayfield throws the ball better than anyone I can remember. He's in the class of Marino and Elway  Are there risks?  Sure there are.  Off the field, he has a penchant for getting in trouble, and that could cost him and ruin his career.  But this is football, no one is guaranteed to be able to suit up more than one game at a time.  

     Selecting Denzel Ward at fourth overall disappointed a lot of fans given that big bad Bradley Chubb was still available.  Defensive end is hugely important, and these guys get their name called all the time for sacking the qb and stopping the run.  Cornerbacks are boring. If they are very good, nothing happens all game long because the qb never throws at him.  So it may be that Ward is a much more significant force than you might imagine based on media impact.  We drafted him because we have to beat a team that has Antonio Brown on the roster.  

    If you've read Mark F Barnes' excellent reviews of Austin Corbett, this is a guy with very good OL skills who will be considered at tackle or guard if Joel Bitonio moves outside to replace Joe T.  

    Nick Chubb is a guy I've really liked.  People are worried about a knee operation 3 years ago, but he was devestating at the end of last year, 145 yards versus Oklahoma.    He is a power back, perfect for a cold weather ball control team.  

    In the 3rd round they went DE with Chad Thomas.  He is not going to start because of Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah, and Carl Nassib is pretty decent too.  They must think he's pretty good to take a defensive end at that point of the draft.  

    Anthony Calloway (Round 4)  is a first round wide receiver who can't stay out of trouble.  Can the Browns help him turn his life around?  Maybe, but we have more than our share of troubled wide receivers. 

    In the back of the draft, you start looking for specialty team players and longshots.  Probably linebacker Geneard Avery,  5th round, Damion Rately (6th), and Simieon Thomas (also 6th) will probably not start unless they make a big splash in the Pre-Season. 
  

The Village Elliot's 2018 NFL Draft Scorecard: He Knows Nothing About NFL Football!

So, how'd I do in prognosticating the draft?  It's rather humbling, because the main result is that it proved once again that I know nothing about NFL football.   But here is my self assessment concerning my main predictions.

1.  Josh Allen would be the first overall pick:  WHIFF!
2. Bills move up in the draft for a qb:  CORRECT.
3.  Giants Draft Barkley:  CORRECT. 
4.  First three picks will be QBs:  WHIFF.
5.  4 QBs taken in the Top 10:  CORRECT.
5.  Huge 3 team deal:  WHIFF.
6.  Jets draft Darnold:  CORRECT.
7.  6 QBs in Round 1:  WHIFF
8.  Browns trade down from Pick 4:  WHIFF
9.  Dolphins trade up for Rosen:  WHIFF
10.  Denzel Ward drafted before Minkah Fitzpatrick: CORRECT
11.  Mason Rudolph drafted in Round 1 (Arizona):  WHIFF.
12.  Patriots draft Lamar Jackson and Shaquem Griffin in Round 1. WHIFF!  WHIFF!

Pics  I totally blew are Shaquem Griffin, who I believe will be a star on defense and would make the end of the first round; Mason Rudolph who I felt was a first rounder; ditto for Combine freak Will Hernandez and Derrius Guice.

Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph Belong in the First Round.

"Elliot Kennel, you stupid jerk!  Did you really say Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph might be better than me?  Man, I'm putting you on my enemies list!"

   

Call me crazy but Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph are darned good and belong in the first Round.   Let's think this through a little bit, shall we?

   First, Mason Rudolph has done everything Baker Mayfield has done, except get arrested or grab his crotch on national TV.   I mean, 4900 passing yards, 37 TDs and 9 INTs. Jeepers.  Well, of course he did that in the Big 12,  and it may be argued the Big 12 does not know how to play pass defense.  

    That may be true, but isn't that the same conference that Oklahoma plays in?   Mason Rudolph is known for having a deadly accurate deep ball and has plenty of arm strength, though quite not at the level of Mayfield or Allen.  I think both Mayfield and Rudolph are candidates  to play in Game 1, depending on who drafts them.   Rudolph seems to have the right kind of work ethic to succeed in the NFL, whereas Mayfield is going to have to work hard to shake off the comparisons with Johnny Manziel. 

    Like Mayfield, Josh Rosen has also alienated a few people with his mouth.  It's not that he's said or done anything bad,  but there is some concern that he might not have the right kind of personality to play quarterback in the NFL   

   CBS Sportsline, incidentally, ranks Mason Rudolph as the top quarterback in America in at least one mock draft, but 10th overall.  They also like Lamar Jackson at 11th overall. That's probably not a bad estimate for where he will be taken. The main gripes against Lamar are that he is a running quarterback, has his mother for an agent, and scored poorly on the Wonderlic intelligence test.    Well, all those are true.  

    I am not crazy about running quarterbacks, either, but this fellow is just as talented if not more so than DeShaun Watson. Jackson will probably never have to pass against a seven man front, because other teams are going to have to stack the line to prevent him from running wild.  So it may be that Jackson is not quite the passer of the other five, but he doesn't have to be.  He will succeed.
    The Wonderlic flop didn't have to happen.  I blame his inexperienced agent (namely his mother) for not preparing him for the test.  There are test taking strategies that a normal agent would prepare his client for (i.e., if you don't know an answer, should you guess or not?  How much time should you spend on a tough problem before giving up and moving to the next). I doubt whether his well-intentioned but inexperienced agent knew how to prepare. Hence her son wound up being embarrassed.  Thanks, Mom.  But irrespective of test scores, he ran a complex Louisville Offense and is clearly football smart. I'm not buying the stupid quarterback narrative.  Jackson will be a star.       

    Per my own evaluation, I'd go with the following order:  Allen, Darnold, Jackson, Rudolph, Rosen and Mayfield.  But I think the draft order will be Allen, Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, and  Rudolph at the end of Round 1.  Really I'm comfortable with all 6 guys.  Although Mayfield and Rosen may have some perceived risk factors, it's still a worthy gamble that they will grow up to be star players.   

Village Elliot's 2018 Mock Draft 3.0 Saquon to Giants, Lamar Jackson to Pats , Browns trade back, Buffalo, Denver trade up.

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  I updated the draft after the New England deal that brought them an extra first round pick.  I think that becomes Lamar Jackson.  

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  Of course, mock drafts are ridiculous because there are so many things that people can do that every prediction will soon fall apart. Nevertheless, like a moth driven to fly into a flame, I have a compulsion to try to predict the future and read the minds of NFL General Managers. I'm going to take my best shot at predicting some absolutely improbable future events. Thus, I have the following outlandish scenario to propose for my mock:   I think the Bills want to move up, and the Browns and Giants are interested in moving down.  The first three picks are going to be quarterbacks.

Here's how it goes:
1.  Browns draft Josh Allen.  He has the most talent but lousy stats.  I think that the stats can be overcome. Mainly, he needs to throw to people better than a converted point guard as his top wide receiver and things will improve.
2.  A three way deal with the Browns, Giants and Buffalo results in Buffalo moving up all the way to Number 2 and they draft Baker Mayfield. I didn't make this up completely, as it was rumored a few weeks ago.  Buffalo sends a  2nd and 3rd round draft pick to the Giants, who move back to 4th overall.   Buffalo then sends the Browns two number one picks this year (12th and 22nd) and their first round pick in 2019.  So, when all the carnage is over, Buffalo gave up 1,1,2,3 plus number 1 in 2019.  Phew!  But if Baker Mayfield is good enough to lead them into the playoffs, it's worth it (he won't).  

3.  The Jets are up next, and they go for Sam Darnold, the gunslinger from USC.  
4.    The  Giants get their guy to help out Eli, namely Saquon Barkley, to create a more balanced offense.  
5.  Miami Dolphins move up by trading Denver three picks in including 11th overall in order to get their guy, Josh Rosen. 

6.  Indianapolis drafts Bradley Chubb, the brilliant defensive lineman.  They really didn't want a quarterback anyway, since they are banking on Andrew Luck coming back. 
7.  Tampa Bay solidifies their secondary by drafting Denzel Ward, the shutdown corner from Ohio State
8.  Chicago Bears draft Quenton Nelson,  to take care of Franchise QB (they hope) Mitchell Trubisky. 
9. San Francisco 49ers take Minkah Fitzpatrick.   The draft always seem to deliver top defensive talent to San Francisco in Round 1. 
10. Oakland Raiders select Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia. Jon Gruden needs to fix the Raiders' defense. 
11. Denver stakes Will Hernandez, G, UTEP, who was a Combine stud.  
12.  With the Bill's pick, Cleveland goes for Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame. They need to replace Joe Thomas. This is a no-brainer. 
13. Washington Redskins go with defense, Vita Vea, DT, Washington. 
14. Green Bay Packers  The Packers try to plug a leaky secondary with Derwin James, SS, Florida State. 
15. Arizona Cardinals.  Hey, did everyone forget about Mason Rudolph?  He had four fantastic years with Oklahoma State and is ready to play NOW.  He might make the All-Rookie Team.  Arizona was not able to move up, and  is overjoyed with Rudolph. 
16. Baltimore Ravens address a need for a wide receiver, by selecting Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama. 
17. Los Angeles Chargers select Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama. If you want a great defense, just draft someone from Alabama. 
18. Seattle Seahawks need to replace Richard Sherman, and pick Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa. 
19. Dallas Cowboys pick Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist.
20. Detroit Lions get a pash rusher by selecting Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA. 
21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo) adds to Marvin Lewis' defense with  Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Virginia Tech.  They have to replace often-suspended Vontaze Burfict.
22. Cleveland Browns did not get Saquon Barkley, so they take another stud runner in Derrius Guice, RB, LSU. 
23. New England selects Lamar Jackson, and the entire NFL groans. Why didn't we think of that?  Jackson is the most talented qb in the draft, but obviously fits a running quarterback style offense that most teams don't like. The Patriots don't care, they can morph into any kind of team that they want on a particular Sunday. Jackson may also decide to be on the field at the same time as Tom Brady, and emulate Kordell Slash Stewart.  
24. Carolina Panthers get Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. They want to protect Cam Newton.  
25. Tennessee Titans draft to re-establish their defensive line, and they go with Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan.
26. Atlanta Falcons bolster their front line with Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. 
27. New Orleans Saints recently learned how to play defense.  Great idea, so they will add  Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama. 
28. Pittsburgh Steelers select  Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars were hoping for a qb to slide because they hate current starter Blake Bortles.  Finding none, they take James Washington, WR Oklahoma State.  Nobody could cover him at the Senior Bowl.  
30. Minnesota Vikings  go with Leighton Vander Esch ILB, a sideline-to-sideline linebacker.
31. New England Patriots draft Shaquem Griffin.  He's gotten plenty of attention for overcoming the handicap of having only one hand, but what is being missed is that he is an incredible player.  He also weighs 229 and runs a 4.3 40 yard dash. People who think he is a day 3 pick are insane. Watch the film and believe your eyes.  He is a first round draft pick.  
32. Philadelphia Eagles need some O-Line help and go with Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. 

    
Well that's a lot to have happen.  Do you think I will get anything right?     

Cleveland Browns' Plan to Weaken the Rest of the NFL

Comebacking Johnny Manziel is seeking to add to the burgeoning list of ex-Browns quarterbacks making a living in the NFL.  

It seems as the Cleveland Browns want to make  as many trades as possible, especially their ex-quarterbacks, in order to  weaken the rest of the NFL. It may be working.  Come to think of it, right now there are an unbelievable 9 former Browns quarterbacks on NFL rosters, plus another two or three hoping to catch on somewhere, including Johnny Manziel.  Amazingly, the retread crew combined for 39 starts in 2017, including last year's one-and-done champion, DeShone Kizer who started 15 times for the Cleveland Browns. Still would you have guessed that the other ex-Browns had combined for 24 additional starts?  

Some will no doubt be gone after training camp, but for now they are (with the number of 2017 starts, if any):   

Brian Hoyer, Patriots, 6 starts for SF

Colt McCoy, Redskins

Josh Johnson, Raiders

Josh McCown, Jets, 13 starts in NY.

Robert Griffin III, Ravens

Cody Kessler, Jaguars

Kevin Hogan, Washington, 1 start for the Browns

Brock Osweiler, Dolphins, 4 starts for the Broncos.  

DeShone Kizer, Packers, 15 starts for the Browns

Also looking for a new job are three guys with an outside chance of getting on an NFL roster this year.  

Derek Anderson

Johnny Manziel

Thad Lewis

Honorable Mention:
Doug Pederson, now the Super Bowl winning coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.  

Tracking Josh Allen's Worst Game in 2017 vs Oregon: Was He Inaccurate or Not?

Why didn't Josh Allen complete more passes against the Oregon Ducks? 

     I've been very interested in determining whether to agree with the popular assessment that Josh Allen is a strong armed but inaccurate passer.  Accordingly, I've asked for readers to cite examples of inaccuracy on game film, but so far none have emerged.    

     I don't have a vested interest one way or the other.  I'm an amateur at this, not a Pro, and I don't claim to be a good talent evaluator.  Nevertheless I wanted to from my own opinion on Allen's accuracy or lack of it.   
     Elsewhere, I've documented that the Cowboys team was depleted in offense in 2017, as 4800 yards of total offense (receiving and rushing yards) graduated after 2016.  See   Why Josh Allen's Low Completion Percentage Does Not Matter. 
     That's their best two wide receivers, tight end and running back, so the 2017 crew was very, very thin. Their best guy is a converted quarterback who seems to be a good athlete, but he is just learning the position.  

      Anyway, I looked at the worst game of Josh Allen's career, a 49-13 drubbing by Oregon last Sept 16 2017.  Allen's stat line was 9 for 24 for 64 yards and an INT.  Wow, that was horrible, 37.5% completion percentage.  So Josh must be horribly inaccurate, right? 

    I went through and cataloged each pass from the video record and tabulated the results below including one extra pass that was called back due to penalty.  I saw passes hit receivers in the hands and bounce off.  I saw receivers fall down and others run the wrong route.  I saw receivers covered, and the ball thrown out of bounds to avoid a sack. Look, the stats suck.  But I didn't see much inaccuracy. Maybe one pass that was clearly overthrown, and a few others that were higher than desirable but catchable.  Is that the reason we are going to turn down an opportunity to draft a guy who throws the ball better than John Elway?   

   No.  Maybe a scout can determine that Allen makes bad decisions, doesn't go through his progressions well or has no touch.  I don't know about that.  But the accuracy narrative is not what the film says. 
    As previously noted, the Wyoming team graduated 4800 yards of offense after the 2016 season, with corresponding stars to replace the players they lost. Moreover, they are an FBS team playing a Pac 12 team.  So of course they are going to be totally ouclassed, at least at that early point of the season.  To put it bluntly, the receivers couldn't get open and they couldn't catch.  
    Given that the 2016 Cowboys had four guys on offense that made NFL rosters.  Maybe a better question is why Josh didn't put up better numbers in 2016 with all that talent. He also threw 15 INTs in 2016 verus 6 in 2017.  Maybe he wasn't very good in 2016.  To me the data suggests that he really did get a lot better in 2017, even though the stats show the opposite.  

    Maybe someone else can find some other game films where Josh misses several open receivers.  I invite you to do so and publish the results.  Until we see the evidence, however, I disbelieve the inaccuracy narrative.  It's easy to read the stats and note that sub-60% accuracy is not very good.  But I strongly suspect that the writers claiming Allen is inaccurate just didn't watch much film.  Just look at the tally below.  For these reasons I believe Josh Allen is the no-brainer first pick of the 2018 draft.  

   

2018 Cleveland Browns, Pre-Draft Free Agent Summary

The Browns have been prolific in the off-season, with several key additions, but also some unexpected subtractions.  The net summary is posted below.

    On balance they added major players at quarterback, Slot receiver, tight end, plus three starters at defensive back. Major adds:  QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Carlos Hyde, SR Jarvis Landry, TE Darren Fells, RT Chris Hubbard, CBs E.J. Gaines, DeMarius Randall, S T.J. Carrie.  On the loss side, we lose Isaiah Crowell, LT Joe Thomas, DT Danny Shelton, CB Jason McCourty.  The net add, depending on how you count, is probably at least four major upgrades.  

     Main takeaways: 

     a.  Carlos Hyde may be a little better than Isaiah Crowell, but they are similar in talent level.  Crowell's major problem with the Browns was Coach Jackson's play-calling. Maybe we should be sympathetic, as a lot of observers had the same issue.  . 

     b.  Tyrod Taylor is an enormous upgrade.  It's not that Tyrod is so super, but DeShone Kizer had a horrific rookie year.  He was too inexperienced for the job, and it made no sense to pass over Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan.  But okay, what's done is done, and three quarterbacks' careers are in the dumper, but we now have a bona fide quarterback, two in fact, with career winning records.  By contrast the career win totals for Kizer, Kessler and Hogan:  zero.  That's just crazy. 

   

     c.  Jarvis Landry and Darren Fells help the receiving corps immensely.  Last year's wide receiver group was beyond terrible. OC Todd Haley now at least has slot receivers (Landry and Duke Johnson) and  but they can now at least field a team that doesn't make opposing defenses fall down laughing.. 

     d.  The secondary is significantly improved by adding E. J. Gaines, T. J. Carrie and DeMarius Randall, with Terrance Mitchell as another experienced player.   The reason for giving away Jason McCourty is not clear, as most observers thought he played well in 2017.  

        e.  Trading Danny Shelton for minimal value is also a bit of a head scratcher, but the Browns have several good defensive tackles, and Danny Shelton's lack of speed makes him best suited for Nose Tackle in a 3-4 defense, which the Browns no longer play.  He's a good player, but will help New England more than he helped us.  

     

         f.  The 2018 draft will add major players:  2 first round and 3 second round as now constituted.  Those guys are normally starters, meaning that the Browns will probably add a net of 8 or 9 good players.  That's a huge number, and the talent level might be upgraded to the point that they are actually competitive in 2018. 

     g. Trading away late round 2018 picks is almost a necessity because of the large number of incoming players. It's almost too many for the system to handle.  For example, if you wind up cutting a good player in order to add a sixth round draft pick guy, that is a net negative.  Better to trade that late round pick for a better 2019 pick.  The exact number.   Currently, the Browns have a net addition of about four players from Free Agency, and 9 draft picks are expected.  The right number is subjective, but my guess is that reducing the number of 2018 draft picks to about 6 or 7 is probably better than staying with 9.  

Off-Season Cleveland Browns Player Moves.