Cleveland Browns Quarterbacks Still in the NFL

 Everyone knows that the Browns quarterback situation is a mess.  They have continued to search for a so-called franchise quarterback, only to fail miserably.   I want to make it clear that I am not down on DeShone Kizer, but I think his lack of experience and lack of receiving talent around him doomed him to be the worst performer in the NFL this year.  By far.  The other guys on the roster are presumably even worse (Cody Kessler, Kevin Hogan, and Brock Osweiler in the pre-season).  

    Typically, the Browns have been so fearful of "quarterback controversy" that they ALWAYS trade or cut the backup quarterback.  So not only have they never had a long term solution at quarterback, they have also failed to identify a reliable backup.  

   The Steeler have Landy Jones as their backup, and he is in his fourth year.  That's an inconceivably long time for the Browns.  Prior to that, Charlie Batch backed up for NINE years.  Unbelievable. 

   But consider this.  Somehow there are eight backup quarterbacks in the NFL who are ex-Browns.  Any one of them are better than Kizer, Kessler and Hogan.  Without further ado, here is a list: 

    1.  Brian Hoyer, New England Patriots, began the year as the 49ers' top guy, but displaced by Jimmy Garoppolo trade.  Hoyer is good enough to back up Tom Brady, but not Johnny Manziel. Brian Hoyer's career record is 10-6, but that is not nearly good enough to hold a job in Cleveland, right?  Not a franchise quarterback, so fire him.  

     2.  Josh McCown has won 5 (count 'em, FIVE) games for the New York Jets. He had a good year for the Browns in 2015, but we had to cut him this year to keep Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler on the roster.    

    3.  Colt McCoy is at Washington backing up Kirk Cousins.  Colt went 6-15 for Cleveland, but he's done well when called upon.    

     4.  Derek Anderson is still holding a clipboard at Carolina, where he has been for 7 years.  As a Browns starter he went 16-18.  He's good enough to back up Cam Newton, but not Brady Quinn.

    5.  Austin Davis also saw some starting duty in 2015. He is now backing up  In his four year career, he's thrown 13 TDs versus 12 INTs.  He is now Russell Wilson's backup.  

    

   6.  Brandon Weeden is backing up in Tennessee now.  He put up some good numbers in Dallas, but unfortunately did not create any "W"s.  

   7.  Josh Johnson  is now with the Houston Texans, taking Brock Osweiler's place.  Josh didn't play much as the third string guy in Cleveland.  

   8. Brock Osweiler had a brief audition for the Browns in pre-season, and is not a part-time starter in Denver. Really, he came to the Browns as a way of trading salary cap for a draft pick.  (we get a second round pick, but had to expend $16 M to eat his salary).  He's not doing well.  

  Did I miss anyone?  

    None of these guys are considered to be "franchise quarterbacks," but that's an unfair comparison.  The real comparison is whether any of them are better than the guys on the current roster.  I would say yes.  Definitely, with the benefit of hindsight all of the quarterbacks except Osweiler and maybe  Josh Johnson would have started ahead of Kizer this year.  

Why Wouldn't the Browns re-sign Isaiah Crowell?

   This is a no-brainer, Browns fans.  There is only one current player on the Browns roster who is turning free agent in 2018.  That would be starting running back Isaiah Crowell.  Meanwhile, the Browns have plenty of cap space, as they are currently underspent by about 38 million dollars for 2018.  So SIGN THE CROW!  He can't possibly be more valuable to another team. 
   If Crow is re-signed, it doesn't mean the Browns can not also draft Saquon Barkley or another running back.  On the contrary, a normal roster has four or five spaces for running back.  Duke Johnson is a very good tough player, but he spends most of his time in the slot now. In today's NFL, the fullback (Danny Vitale) shares responsibilities with tight ends.  So really Crowell and Matthew Dayes are the only full-time running backs on the roster, and they could legitmately add a draftee like Barkley and even another guy if they want. 
   Crowell is on his way to another 900 yard season, and guys like that do not grow on trees.  He's been reliable and durable despite not being on a good team.  By the way, did I mention that as of game 14, Crowell has 27 receptions, which is more than any wide receiver on the roster?  It's true.  The immortal Ricardo Louis leads Browns wide receivers with 26 receptions, a preposterously low total. 
   It would be foolish to let him walk away.  Sign him. 

Can Cleveland Browns' Jimmy Haslam III Learn from Past Mistakes?

I don't care if the Browns make blunders.  Hey, the Red Sox traded Babe Ruth.  

I do care if the Browns' ownership can not learn from past mistakes.  

Joe Banner came up with the idea of tanking to get draft position.  He was eventually let go despite being one of the best executives the Browns have ever had.

One time the Browns had an absolutely brilliant guy in the Front Office.  He wasn't officially the GM, and wasn't really a football guy, but had tremendous business skill, and eventually exerted great influence on player acquisition.   He devised a scheme whereby the team would shift resources to future years, let go the veterans, and collect high round draft picks and eventually win the Super Bowl.  However, he could not get along with the Head Coach because his methods were too extreme.  Basically they could not stomach weakening the team on purpose.  So they fired the guy, and replaced him with a highly regarded personnel guy who had been with the Kansas City Chiefs.  

Does that sound familiar?  However, I'm not talking about Sashi Brown, but Joe Banner.  Like many fans, I was livid when the Browns traded Trent Richardson during the 2013 season for a first round draft pick.   The whole point of football is to do everything in your power to put the best team on the field that you can, and then try to win.  It's not football when you deliberately take away a player who can help the team win, and don't replace him with anyone.   

Joe was probably right that the way you build a team is to cut veterans who do not figure to be contributing three years in the future.   You're better off if you don't overspend on temporary fixes, and if it costs you some games, you'll make up for it in the next draft because you're getting better players. 

You let some of the veterans leave via Free Agency so that the team can pick up compensatory draft picks.  You trade this year's seventh round pick for next year's sixth round pick, and that sort of thing.  You increase the level of talent on the future team. 

To some degree, the Browns did that in 2013 by signing Willis McGahee to fill Richardson's role, but the perception was that they were giving up on the season.  Players don't like playing for an organization that is not committed to winning, and agents won't steer their players to a team like that in Free Agency.  

The 2014 draft was positioned to be one of the deepest in history because underclassmen were being permitted to enter the draft.  Hence Banner had accumulated several extra picks and figured to bolster the Browns with several good players.   But what happened was that they promoted ex-Chiefs front office man Ray Farmer to GM, replacing Banner.  Farmer managed to squander draft picks, trading up to get players like Justin Gilbert Johnny Manziel and Pierre Desir.  Though they entered the draft with ten picks, they came away with only six, and the top two players had lifestyles that were incompatible the NFL.  Whiff! Whiff! Farmer did better with Christian Kirksey and Joel Bitonio, but the damage was done.  

This same pattern has repeated itself.  When Jimmy Haslam III hired Sashi Brown, I hoped that Brown would implement Banner's basic draft strategy, minus some of the more draconian moves. Instead, Brown was even more destructive to the roster, purging current year payroll as much as possible while cutting or failing to re-sign an incredible number of valuable players:  Joe Haden, Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, Gary Barnidge, Paul Kruger, Karlos Dansby, DeMario Davis, Josh McCown, Travis Benjamin, Tashaun Gipson, Starter Craig Robertson, Taylor Gabriel, Jordan Poyer, Johnson Bademosi, Terrelle Pryor, Barkevious Mingo, Tramon Williams.  These moves allowed the Browns to pare down payroll such that active salaries are an amazing 57 million dollars under the nominal 2017 cap of $167 Million.  As a consequence, the 2018 Browns figure to have the first overall pick plus a Top 5 pick via Houston.   But the Browns won only one game in 2016 and are currently 0-14.   Attendance has fallen off dramatically, sponsors are jumping ship, ratings are down, and generally Sashi Brown's tenure has been a disaster.  So once again, Mr. Haslam has fired the effective GM, and hired a personnel guy from Kansas City in John Dorsey. 

I can't believe the Browns made the exact same mistake with Sashi Brown that they made with Joe Banner.  That shows a lack of growth and a failure to learn from past mistakes.  So, my question is whether anything has improved by hiring John Dorsey, or will the results be the same as with Ray Farmer? 

Why I'm Not Down on DeShone Kizer

   Actually, the title of this article is a lie.  Truthfully I'm down on Kizer or just about any rookie quarterback this side of DeShaun Watson.  Rookie quarterbacks are usually terrible.  Once in a while you get a guy who is outstanding as a rookie, like Robert Griffin, DeShaun Watson or Ben Roethlisberger.  But it is much more common for rookies to be awful. 
    Kizer, it must be confessed, has put up some terrible numbers.  19 INTs versus 9 TDS, interception percentage of 4.6%.  But if you look around the league, that's about what usually happens if your team is dumb enough to start a rookie quarterback in Game 1.  Check out some of these numbers.  I just list the quarterback rating and interception percentages, but trust me, the rest of the numbers areq equally bad.   I'm not saying Kizer is necessarily as good as these guys, but he has not disqualified himself either:
                                 

	Rating	INT pct
Alex Smith	40.8	6.7
John Elway	54.9	5.4
Eli Manning	55.4	4.6
DeShone Kizer	59.4	4.6
Jared Goff	63.6	3.4
Troy Aikman	55.7	6.1

Because underclassmen are now being drafted to the NFL, guys like Kizer are coming with less experience than ever before.  Instead of four years of major college experience, he came to the Browns with only two.   Normal quarterback development would call for the player to have a good year by the second year out of college.  For Kizer, 2017 is his junior year at Notre Dame.  2018 is the senior year, 2019 he gets drafted but stays on the bench at first and he's ready to play for real in his second year as a Pro which would be 2020.  That's a normal development.  Instead, the Browns felt they could condense the development process into three months, and get Kizer ready three years early, in what should be his junior year at Notre Dame.  This is delusional, and I wish it would stop. 

DeShone Kizer is too early in his development to make any lasting judgment.  

      Kizer might be great or he might be terrible, but not very much is gained by playing him three years before he is ready. We know he has some good characteristics.  He's obviously psychologically tough, intelligent, hard working and throws a great ball.  But beyond that I can't tell where he is headed. I don't believe the coach can either.  The Browns are just going to have to keep him on the roster for another two years, and then they can form an opinion on him.    

Gregg Williams Should be the Next Coach of the Cleveland Browns

...

   I don't think the Browns can go 2-30, establishing all sorts of negative NFL records, and keep the Head Coach.  On the other hand everyone recognizes the lack of continuity in management has been a major problem.  The obvious solution is to appoint Gregg Williams to Head Coach, and hire a new Offensive Coordinator. 

   Hue Jackson has done a great job keeping the team together and playing hard every week. But as Offensive Coordinator, he has been a disaster. He has managed to ruin the careers of three quarterbacks this year. He promoted DeShone Kizer way to soon to be the starter, and meanwhile sophomores Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan never got the chance to show whether they can play or not.  

     With an atrocious passing offense, Hue was not able to create a run-first offensive game plan for whatever reason.  All year long they have tried to throw the ball all over the ballyard 40 times or more per game, and with a rookie quarterback, it just didn't work. Help is needed from a true Offensive Coordinator.  

      But on the other side of the ball, Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams has gotten results, turning around the worst  defense in the NFL.  Yes he had some help from young star Myles Garrett, but even without him the Browns were much improved, especially in rushing defense.  Coach Williams switched the team over from the 3-4 defense to the 4-3, and made a huge improvement.

     Gregg has been to the Super Bowl and won, as Defensive Coordinator for the Saints.  Yes, he was too aggressive by allowing the players to establish bounties on knocking out the other teams' stars ("bountygate"), which earned him a fine and a year-long suspension.  But truthfully, I can understand that mentality for a tough nasty defense.  If it can be controlled, the Browns could use some of that aggressiveness.    Gregg has Head Coaching experience Buffalo Bills teams.  Frankly it did not go particularly well, with his best record being 8-8 in 2002.  But after a Super Bowl win and solid performances with the Rams and Browns, he's earned another shot.   

    He has some of the swag from Buddy Ryan, his former mentor.  But he is not a Ryan clone from the blitz-every-down school.  Gregg has proven himself to be very versatile in designing defenses based on the personnel that he has available.  He seems just as comfortable with extra blitzers or extra defensive backs, depending on the personnel and the situation.  

Gregg Williams has gotten results. Promote the guys who have had success.  

    So if the team values continuity, it would be bad to throw away the current defense, especially since the offense is in chaos.  If Coach Jackson has to go, and I suspect with 1-29 he's probably earned that fate, Gregg Williams is the obvious candidate to succeed him.  Get him a good offensive coordinator, and back them with solid personnel evaluators, and we might go somewhere.  

..

Browns 2018 Free Agent Fantasies: Reality Check

    Estimates are all over the place for what the Browns will likely do in Free Agency.  Yes, their total cap space is $108 Million dollars, but no they are not going to spend nearly that much.   The carryover (unspent money from previous years) is not likely to be be all blown in one year, plus don't forget to leave some money for all those 2018 draft choices.  Hence here is the Village Elliot's attempt to determine what is realistic. 

     In 2018, the Browns are in very good shape, but not to the tune of $108 million dollars as suggested in some articles.  NFL Salary cap space is compiled in overthecap.com.  Let's break it down as follows:   The Browns have $128 Million committed in salaries for 2018 (which includes $10 million "dead money" to players no longer on the team).  That's a very low number.   The estimated salary cap for 2018 is $178 million.  There's another $58 Million in unspent money from previous years ("carryover dollars").  So the "total cap" is $178 +$58 M -$128 M = $108 M.    That's where the $108 Million in salary cap comes from, but that assumes zero rookies signed, zero departing veterans to replace, and assuming you blow all the carryover money in one year.  None of those things are realistic. 

Carryover money is just like a savings account in case of an emergency.  Likely it will not be used at all in 2018, so poof!  there goes $58 Million.  The Browns also will have a much larger than usual bill for rookies, as they have to be paid after you draft them.  In 2018, that will be about $28 Million.  Plus, we have to either re-sign Isaiah Crowell or provide money to replace him. 
   That may run $18 Million for 13 players, or in other words about $12 Million above the league minimum for those roster spots.  This number also comes from overthecap.com.   

       My guess is the Browns let will their carryover dollars ride and spend up to the current limit or $178 Million total expenditures (including $6 Million to players not with the team). Also, the Browns have two free agents in Isaiah Crowell and backup Marcus Martin.  So let's allow $5 Million to either re-sign Crowell or come up with a replacement.  So,  compared to last year, the difference in player salaries is $178-$12-$128- $5 = $29 million dollars, give or take, above 2017.  Conclusion:  That's a lot of money, enough for three or four significant starters.  So $108 Million is the absolute limit if they sign no draftees, give zero pay raises and blow all their saved-up carryover money in one year (totally unrealistic) whereas $33 million is where I put the over-under for what they will actually add.   That's still a lot of money, enough to add two or three very significant players.  This is not going to be like previous years in which they had tons of cap space to raise fans expectations, but in which they deliberately underspent the cap and also let star players leave without being replaced.  No, in 2018 they really are going to add signficant players.  I promise.    

        In addition there are currently five draft picks in Round 1 and 2 and a total of 13.   These high picks should usually start or at least contribute significantly.   So, when all is said and done, they have one guy who might leave in Free Agency (Crowell) but they can replace him with about 8 very good players.   It sounds crazy, but I believe they will have enough firepower to contend next year if they get their act together.  

Guest post from Jeff Mitzel: Should the Browns Keep Hue Jackson?

In our Browns Bloggers and Friends discussion group on Facebook, I asked whether Hue Jackson should be retained, especially in light of recent comments that he felt out of the loop with the Browns front office.  That is even more of an issue now that General Manager John Dorsey has replaced Sashi Brown.  This thoughtful response comes from Mr. Jeff Mitzel....

Jeff Mitzel I'll raise my hand to your question, Elliott.

1. Hue's statements are a sea change. Hue previously stated that he participated in discussions and when asked about moves he toted the company line--- that it's all about winning.

2. Except when it isn't. And when owners bereft of what to do next begin crowdsourcing and interviewing players. Hue would naturally be nervous at this point. And is making it clear--- it's not his plan.

3. Pointedly, personnel moves haven't made for winning. Gone are Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor replaced by Kenny Britt who has been a no show. Sashi has continued to voice support that Britt will turn it around. No, he won't is the correct answer, but we've seen this before--- folks get stubborn about the moves they make.

4. The Browns had no business starting Kizer. Except, a solid plan B was lacking in all directions. And Kizer kept making plays in training camp. Season play is not training camp but, seriously, this may be the most difficult roster decision to make and to project play at QB when facing a defense that can game plan. Eric Mangini ran his QB competition throughout camp trying to figure things out. Kelly Holcomb was a brilliant backup. But an inconsistent starter.

5. The Browns paid $16 million for a second round pick this year, and Osweiler began to figure into things. Until he didn't. Kessler looked good until he didn't--- and appeared to lose confidence as the organization pivoted away from him. Kizer is simply a year away--- from us figuring out if he can process fast enough to avoid interceptions. It's not looking good, but I think Hue is squeezing the most there is out of this kid. Kizer is on pace to set a record for interceptions--- and also makes some brilliant down field throws in tight windows and throws we haven't seen in recent years. How exactly do you sort that out--- unless 'the plan' is to Kizer time?!

6. Toss Hue down the trash chute, and we'll never know on Kizer because the next guy will want his guy. Remember Colt McCoy getting repeatedly berated?! 

7. New coach means new QB, and with the top pick we'll be starting a rookie, again. Except this doesn't seem to work out too well, AND the scouts that favored Wentz were let go immediately before the 2016 draft which is a rare thing. So, who will be engineering the QB selection?! 

Change does not necessarily lead to forward progress. Though, there are plenty of folks who are so frustrated they can't proceed past 'fire Hue' and carry on an adult conversation on the topic?!

My personal opinion is a head coach needs to have two years with the current QB darling, and selecting Kizer is a wasted pick unless the Browns organization gives Kizer continuity in coaching.

I'll also take Osweiler at his word--- that Hue is the best coach he had been around.

And then there's this. Garrapolo wouldn't come to Cleveland because there is no organizational stability. 

And, yes, I agree. Lose Hue and we lose Gregg, and that side of the ball is improved. Do we go back to a 3-4 and play Ogbah out of position as you pointed out?! Is Myles Garrett a 3-4 defensive end?!

Will any QB be successful without a good receiving corps?!

Tough questions look ahead for folks unwilling to hold the adult conversation that lays behind the otherwise sad winning record--- but want Hue gone.

An Open Letter to the Cleveland Browns: HIre Dr. Frank Ryan!

I don't care if he is 81 years old, he is one of the best minds of the country, and he's the one Consultant who could make football sense out of the "analytics" wreckage left by Sashi Brown.  I'm talking about Dr. Frank Ryan, a PhD mathematician from Rice University who also happens to be the last quarterback to win a World Championship for the Cleveland Browns.  

    First welcome to Cleveland, Mr. John Dorsey!  We're very happy to have a personnel expert with the stature of Mr. Dorsey come to our humble town.  He has a had a very impressive career with the Packers, Seahawks and Chiefs, three teams that did very well.  I feel very about having a guy like this make the call on a "franchise quarterback" in the upcoming draft.  

        I recommend that the Cleveland Browns should hire Dr. Frank Ryan as a consultant.  He is the one guy who can assess whether the "analytics" that Sashi Brown brought to the team have any merits, or whether the whole thing should be pitched into the fire.  Frank Ryan, on the one hand is a PhD mathematician and one of the most creative minds on the planet.  On the other hand, he was the quarterback that led the Cleveland Browns to the NFL Championship in 1964.  He is the one guy who can sort through what Sashi was trying to do and figure out what went wrong and what should be salvaged.  In particular, the Browns still have analytics expert Paul DePodesta in the front office.  Should he be kept or sent packing?   I'm undecided, but I would trust Frank Ryan to determine whether analytics has value and how it should be best utilized.  He could put it in terms that football people would be comfortable with.  

      Some of Sashi's ideas were brainless, in my opinion, but in some cases he may have had some good ideas.    He and Paul DePodesta figured out  that to build for the future, you need to get more and higher draft choices than the other teams are getting.  You also need to spend more money on a winning team, so the losing teams need to avoid overpaying for veterans who are not capable of taking the team to a Super Bowl three years in the future.  Save the salary cap for the future when it might make a difference for the Super Bowl. Frank Ryan would be able to advise John Dorsey which of these moves are sensible and which are not. 

     Where Sashi went wrong, in my opinion, is to actually weaken the team to the point of being the worst in the NFL. He got rid of veterans like Josh McCown, Joe Haden, Gary Barnidge, Karlos Dansby and Paul Kruger outright.  He didn't try to re-sign guys who were interested in playing here, like Terrelle Pryor, Travis Benjamin, Mitchell Schwartz and Paul Kruger.  These veterans might not have taken us to a Super Bowl, but we would not be the worst in the NFL.  Haden is a case in point, since he actually IS still on the payroll to the tune of 7 million dollars.  From all that we know, the Browns coaching staff did not want to cut him.  That was all Sashi Brown.   
    There is a science associated with personnel moves. Should you trade a draft pick for a veteran?  When is it better to trade up?  Or trade down?  Should you draft skill positions in early rounds?  Or late rounds? How do you set a value on a starting cornerback? Math geeks and experts on valuation theory really can help answer questions like that in general, though you still need scouting and player evaluation skills.   
      Sashi may have been basically right that you should trade down if you are a team building for the future, and trade up if you are a playoff team needing one key player to get you over the hump. But you need a football guy to know when to violate those general rules.  For example, I believe that late first round is usually not a good time to look for a franchise quarterback. But when the Packers were up at 24th overall in the 2005 draft, John Dorsey advocated drafting Aaron Rodgers, and wow, was he right.  Analytics is another tool for the tool kit, but it doesn't replace the entire tool kit.  Frank Ryan could help the Browns re-establish perspective, I do believe.