Mid-year Evaluation of the Cleveland Browns 2017 Draft Class

So far, the Cleveland Browns have uncovered one talented rookie from the 2017 draft class in Myles Garrett.  Other than Garrett, the Browns' rookies are among the weakest in the NFL.  

How's our 2017 draft class looking so far?  Pretty good, because Myles Garrett looks like an absolute stud if he can stay healthy....But other than that, things look bleak and depressing.  Jabrill Peppers has the most snaps among rookies.  He's a good special teams player, but so far looks like a backup DB long-term.  We have a nice second-string tight end in Njoku...Matthew Dayes has done well on special teams.  Larry Ogunjobi has gotten in on 21% of the defensive snaps, and Caleb Brantley 18%.  We also got DeShone Kizer, and kicker Zane Gonzalez has done well on kickoffs but not field goals.   DB Howard Wilson and OT Roderick Johnson are injured.  

To tell the truth, you or I could have picked Myles Garrett, because that is a complete no brainer.   So as of the midway point of their rookie year, our draft haul looks like Garrett, then four decent backups, three good special teams players and the worst starting quarterback in the league.  Will that help us catch the Steelers?  

I'm hopeful there will be improvement as these fellows enter their second or third year, but the early returns are dismal.   One talented starter per year is just not enough, especially after all those trades.  Maybe we don't need to fire the Coach or the Trademeister, but whoever is in charge of the draft probably needs to be reassigned.    

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The Browns Prove You Get What You Pay For

It's Moneyball, baby! 

Why are the Browns so terrible?  It's not rocket science.  The team is shifting its resources to 2018 and 2019, and underfunding 2017.  This is part of the "Moneyball" strategy to build for the future, for better or worse.  

First of all, owner Jimmy Haslam is not cheap.  The Browns total 2017 expenditures on players salaries is within a few million dollars of the NFL average.  However what we need to realize is that the Browns have a huge amount of "dead money."  That is, $39 million dollars of their payroll is going to players who are no longer on the team.  To some extent, dead money is unavoidable because some players always underperform and have to be cut.  In term of money actually being paid to players on the roster, the Browns total is $116 Million, or $33 million under the NFL average of $149 million.  For example, the Browns are spending $16 million for Brock Osweiler, which they agreed to do in exchange for a 2018 draft pick from Houston.  A complete list appears below, broken down in terms of current starters for other teams, reserves, plus those who are out of football. In that regard, I suspect that guys like Gary Barnidge or Paul Kruger can actually still play, but are retired because the Browns are paying them really good money.  

    $33 Million is a LOT of money.  It's enough for a dozen players with Jason McCourty's salary, or two franchise wide receivers, for instance.  Or you could pay for Kirk Cousins and an offensive lineman.  

      The Browns' intention appears to be to underspend now with the intent of overspending when the Browns get good (whenever that may be).  

      However, after the terrible performance for the past two years, you have to question whether free agents will really want to come to Cleveland.  I suspect we will have to offer two to three times the salaries offered by perpetual playoff teams like the Cowboys or Patriots, just to have a chance of getting someone.   I wonder if they plugged that into their computer model?

Starters, as of 11/4/2017	Browns Charges
Brock Osweiler, starting qb for Denver.	$16,000,000
Josh McCown, starting qb for NY Jets,	$666,000
Joe Haden, staring cb for Pittsburgh	$7,300,000
Demario Davis, starting LB for NY Jets	$1,000,000
Backups as of 11/4/2017	Browns Charges
Cameron Erving, backup G for Chiefs	$1,279,376
John Hughes, backup DE for Saints	$1,500,000
Pierre Desir, backup CB for Colts	$101,903
Tramon Williams, backup CB for Arizona	$500,000
Austin Davis, backup qb for Seahawks	$166,668
Xavier Cooper, back DE for NY Jets	$148,071
Currently out of football:	Browns Charges
Gary Barnidge	$2,325,000
Justin Gilbert	$1,913,364
Robert Griffin III	$1,750,000
Paul Kruger,	$1,200,000
Desmond Bryant	$1,000,000
Alvin Bailey	$666,667
Trey Caldwell	$138,288
Matt McCants	$260,882
TOTAL	$38,837,432

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Why Jimmy Garoppolo was Not an Option for the Cleveland Browns.

There was never a scenario to bring Jimmy Garoppolo to Cleveland.  I

San Francisco has traded a second round pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo, and Browns fans are irate that he didn't become a Cleveland Brown instead.  But there are reasons why this could not possibly work.

First, face it, Cleveland is not an attractive landing spot for Garoppolo.  If you think he and his agent would have a warm spot for the team after spending eight weeks here, you're crazy.  No, after the terrible season that the Browns are having and a complete meltdown of the front office, there is a 100% chance that Garoppolo would leave after his eight game sentence is up. He would become a Free Agent and go somewhere else, and the Browns would have blown a second round draft pick for no reason.  The only way to be sure of having him would be to Franchise Tag him for 2018, which will cost about 23 million dollars for quarterbacks.  That's a lot of money for an unproven albeit promising kid. 

The same thing might happen to San Francisco, but they probably don't need to Franchise Tag him.  Here's how it plays out:

AGENT: Jimmy wants more money or he will go to Cleveland. 

SHANAHAN: HAHAHA! You liar! Take my offer or leave it!

AGENT: (two second pause).  Okay, I'll take it.

Some Browns fans think that they could have had Garoppolo at the beginning of the season.  That's wrong.  At the beginning of the season he would be worth more because the new team gets 16 guaranteed games instead of 8, plus psychologically a better chance to sign him long term. But the Pats have to gamble that Brady stays healthy, and that is a smaller risk with 11 games to go rather than 19. So the Pats managed the risk factor as best they could, and traded Garoppolo at the last possible minute before his trade value goes to zero at the trade deadline.  The Patriots valued having Garoppolo as an insurance policy, but that policy was about to expire, so they cashed in.  

Other reasons to not trade the pick and a $23 Million Franchise Tag fee, is that we all like Jimmy but its not proven he is an All-Pro.  Just because he can quarterback the Patriots doesn't mean he can do the same job somewhere else.  And he's still not a huge kid, doesn't have the big hands thought to be an advantage for cold weather football, hasn't been injury resistant like Tom Brady, and is still rather inexperienced. 

Conversely, A. J. McCarron would have cost a $4 M tender as a restricted free agent in 2018.  So that route is much less costly, and a much lower risk. You still have to ask whether he is actually an upgrade from Cody Kessler and DeShone Kizer, but it's at least affordable if not a stroke of genius. 

Adam Schefter of ESPN had the interesting angle that Belichick might have preferred trading him to the NFC, so the Patriots would only play against him once every four years.  If they had traded him to Cleveland, the Browns might trade him to someone in the Patriot's division, and that would not be good.  Plus Belichick really likes Garoppolo, and would rather send him to a stable system led by a guy he respects in Kyle Shanahan.  The Browns, on the other hand, are the team that fired him.   He has a long memory.  

So, Jimmy G was never an option for the Browns. A J McCarron was not a good option, but he would be an option.  And we can still offer him a contract in the 2018 off-season, when he becomes a Restricted Free Agent.