NFL Bonkers Over First Round QBs--Again!

Once again teams traded up for quarterbacks in the first round, even thought most of the scouts felt that the 2017 qb class isn't that good.  It gives us an interesting opportunity to study what QBs are actually worth.

Trubisky went to Chicago for the 1st round 3rd overall pick, plus two third round picks, and a fourth round pick. Pat Mahomes cost Kansas city two number 1 picks, plus a number 3.  Deshaun Watson cost Texas  two first round picks. Jeepers peepers.  Adding up, its 5 number ones, 3 number threes and a number four.   

If you use the Schamm point system (table below), the Trubisky trade was worth 2300 + 255 + 195 + 67 = 2817 points.  That's about halfway between second overall and first overall.  

The 2016 NFL draft also featured some amazingly high picks burned on players not really rated that high.  To review,Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went first and second overall, and  Pax Lynch was taken in the late first round.   We coud also add Sam Bradford to the list, since he accounts for a number 1 and conditional number 4  pick.   As shown in the table, teams traded a total of 15 picks including 6 number one picks to land these four quarterbacks guys.  It's absolutely insane how much teams are willing to pay for quarterbacks.

In all, for qbs in the first round, the teams traded the following:

Teams Spent:                       Teams Got:
11 number one picks            Jared Goff
3 number twos,                    Carson Wentz
8 number threes.                  Pax Lynch
2 number 4 (conditional)      Sam Bradford
                                             Mitchell Trubiskey
                                             Pat Mahones
                                             DeShaun Watson


Jiminy Christmas, that's 24 draft picks including some really pricey ones, and I'm not real sure that any of these guys are really that good.  Jared Goff was All-Nothing in his first year, and Carson Wentz struggled, and Pax Lynch didn't play for the Broncos.  Sam Bradford was the best.  

Now let's see what happened for the rest of the draft.  

Teams spent:             Teams got:  

2 number twos          Dak Prescott
4 number threes       Jacoby Brissett
4 number fours         Cody Kessler
2 number fives          Connor Cook
5 number sixes.        Cardake Jones
2 number seven        Kevin Hogan
                                  Hackenberg, Christian
                                  Allen, Brandon
                                  Rudock, Jake
                                  Sudfeld, Nate
                                  Driskel, Jeff
                                  Doughty, Brandon

                                  DeShone Kizer
                                  Davis Webb
                                  CJ Beathard
                                  Joshua Dobbs
                                  Nathan Peterman
                                  Brad Kaaya
                                  Chad Kelly

If you believe in the Brandt draft point system, the mid-first round iis worth roughly  1000 points, 2nd round is 400 points, 3rd round is 200 points 4th round 70, 5th round 35 6th round 20 and 7th round 10.  In rough terms the high group cost the teams some 13000 Brandt points, and the bottom group about 2000 points

So, obviously if the NFL knows as much about quaterbacks as they think, the first round guys should be worth SIX TIMES what the bottom guys were worth.  In particular, in theory Goff was worth SEVENTY FIVE (75) TIMES Dak Prescott.  Um, anyone notice a problem here?  

There were some standouts in 2016 from the later rounds. In addition to Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler clearly outperformed Goff, Wentz and Lynch, at least in year 1.  

I would bet against Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson ever being able to justify the enormous faith that their teams placed in them.  On the other hand, I like the chances of guys like Kizer, Webb, Kelly and Kaaya to exceed expectations.    

Brandt Point Value versus Overall Draft Pick Number

Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5		Round 6		Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

Schramm Point Analysis of the 2016 Quarterbacks

 


The 2016 NFL draft provides an interesting case study on when is the best time to draft a quarterback. From an analytics perspective, if you have very high confidence in NFL scouting, or more precisely, the abiity to evaluate quarterbacks,  then you take a franchise quarterback at the top of the first round.  Obviousy, the other teams are going to do the same thing, and there will be no franchise quarterbacks left after the early first round.  

On the other hand, if you believe that quarterbacks are hard to evaluate accurately (hint:  this is what the Browns believe), then you are willing to take a flier in a later round, and you're more reluctant to risk a high pick on a quarterback.  

This is just the concept of risk.  Do you believe drafting quarterbacks is a low risk  proposition, or is it high risk?  

So look at the draft capital burned for the first round guys last year.  I think the trend is easier to understand if you look at the entire group of first rounders, rather than just one particular guy (who might inspire hallucinations of greatness). In 2016 Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went first and second overall, and  Pax Lynch was taken in the late first round.   We coud also add Sam Bradford to the list, since he accounts for a number 1 and conditional number 4  pick.   As shown in the table, teams traded a total of 15 picks including 6 number one picks to land these four quarterbacks guys.  It's absolutely insane how much teams are willing to pay for quarterbacks.

In all, for qbs in the first round, the 4 treams traded the following:

Teams Spent:                       Teams Got:
6 number one picks             Jared Goff
3 number twos,                    Carson Wentz
5 number threes.                  Pax Lynch
1 number 4 (conditional)      Sam Bradford

Jiminy Christmas, that's 13 draft picks including some really pricey ones, and I'm not real sure that they are really that good.  Jared Goff was All-Nothing in his first year, and Carson Wentz struggled, and Pax Lynch didn't play for the Broncos. 

Now let's see what happened for the rest of the draft.  

Teams spent:             Teams got:  

1 number two            Dak Prescott
2 number threes       Jacoby Brissett
3 number fours         Cody Kessler
1 number five            Connor Cook
4 number sixes.        Cardake Jones
1 number seven        Kevin Hogan
                                  Hackenberg, Christian
                                  Allen, Brandon
                                  Rudock, Jake
                                  Sudfeld, Nate
                                  Driskel, Jeff
                                  Doughty, Brandon


If you believe in the Brandt draft point system, the mid-first round iis worth roughly  1000 points, 2nd round is 400 poinnts, 3rd round is 200 points 4th round 70, 5th round 35 6th round 20 and 7th round 10.  In rough terms the top 3 guys were worth about between 6000 and 7000 points, and the bottom 12 guys totalled under 1500 points.   

So, obviously if the NFL knows as much about quaterbacks as they think, the first round guys should be worth FOUR times what the bottom guys were worth.  

But that is not the case.  Although there are a number of guys who are never going to make it, there were some standouts in 2016 from the later rounds.  Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler clearly outperfromed Goff, Wentz and Lynch.   In particular, in theory Goff was worth SEVENTY FIVE (75) TIMES Dak Prescott.  

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the top quarterbacks were way overvalued.  The scouting was NOT super accurate.  If anything it was super inaccurate.

Goff, Wentz and Lynch may develop and make a better accounting for themselves but even so they are not vastly superior to Dak Prescott. Goff is never ever going to be judged to be seventy five times more valuable than Dak Prescott.    Those who think that the NFL can accurately predictt quarterback performance are wrong.  

The obvious conclusion is that NFL scouts can not accurately predict quarterback performance, or you would never get guys like Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and others in the mid to late rounds.   That's why it makes sense to draft somebody else with your first round pick, and usually not a quarterback unless he is truly a no-doubter like Andrew Luck.  

The Village Elliot's Predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft

    

Nobody believes that Emmanuel Ogbah is as good a prospect as Myles Garrett.  Does that mean the Browns will pull the plug on him as a Right Defensive End, in order to play Garrett? 

The Village Elliot knows nothing about NFL Football, but nevertheless I feel compelled every year to make predictions about how the draft will play out, especially for our Cleveland Browns.  Here goes: 

 1.  I think the Browns have been interested to trade out of the Number One position, though it appears that there are no takers willing to pay the price for Myles Garrett.  There are several reasons why they tried. First of all, remember that the draft is being run by analytical statisticians rather than old jocks.  The stat guys seem to believe that the NFL over-values early picks, (and I tend to agree based on my more primitive but still analytics-based study).  They traded out last year even though there was a pretty good quarterback available in Carson Wentz. I think the same though processs is at work this year.  Another reason is that from last year's draft the best results were achieved at defensive end and quarterback.  Despite having a 3-4 defense last year, the Browns took two 4-3 defensive ends in  Emmanuel Ogbah and Carl Nassib.  Neither of them are anywhere near Myles Garrett, but nevertheless they presumably believe in their 2016 draftees to a certain extent. They don't really want to move Ogbah to the left side, and they don't really want to bench Nassib.   If they can get huge value from a team like Chicago, Jacksonville or New York, I think they might still do it.    But if it hasn't happened yet, it's doubtful that it will happen at the last minute.    If they can't get that kind of a deal,  they will be delighted to draft Myles Garrett.  Nobody is perfect or zero risk, but Garrett is the closest we have to a sure-fire starter. 

2.  The Browns will draft playmakers at strong safety and defensive tackle, and they also will look for help early at right tackle on offense.    

3.  The Browns will continue to build their stash of draft picks. They will trade a few 2017 picks to move up in the 2018 draft. They may also deal away Brock Osweiler as part of this process. 

  

4.  The Browns are not going to go nuts for a quarterback.  I believe they have done the risk benefit analysis, and my amateur guess is that they believe that the rest of the league over-values first round quarterbacks, and undervalues them in Rounds 2-4.  That is the primary place to find a quarterback. The full rationale is contained elsewhere in this blog, but basically the idea is that the investment cost is lower in the middle rounds, but the quarterback level of success doesn't drop off that much in the middle rounds. So I think the analytics probably say to take one every year, until such time as they are three deep in winning quarterbacks. But the best strategy is usually not to take them early in the first round.  Cody Kessler was very good last year on a bad team, and is at least the quarterback of the present. Who knows, he may improve in his second and third year.  I can't imagine pulling the plug on him after one year, which wasn't a bad one.  

Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown understand  how to trade up and trade down better than anyone else, in my opinion.  However, the Browns scouting has been below average. 

5.  I think MItchell Trubisky will be gone by 6th overall if not sooner, and Pat Mahomes will be right behind him.  The Browns will get a guy like Joshua Dobbs or Jerod Evans in the second or third round. Yeah, Mitchell is a little better, but not enough of an upgrade to justify (say) fifth overall versus second or third round.   The Browns may also take a serious look at  Chad Kelly if he survives till Round 6, on the grounds that they can probably hide him on the Reserve Squad without another team plucking him away.  Teams will shy away from him due to his possibly still-healing knee injury and growth issues off the field.   Kelly has a cannon but needs to mature as a player and also learn to avoid the temper flare-ups that have cost him as a college player. That's a big risk, and it's also the reason he is not a first round pick.  

6.  Deshaun Watson is going to slide all the way out of the first round. He was a great quarterback in college, but he had the best receiving corps in the nation last year, and still lead major qbs in interceptions. Not good. Then at the combine, he threw only 49 mph, which is horrifically slow.  No NFL quarterback has ever been successful with a 49 mph unless you want to count Mike Glennon or Matt Flynn.  I compare Watson to Tim Tebow who was a star college player who was a good runner but not good enough in the pocket.   I think Deshaun might win if he is in a running oriented offense, such that he can make plays a la Tyrod Taylor.  In fact I think Buffalo is the best place for him, or maybe Seattle or Carolina.  

How did the Browns do in the 2016 Draft? 1 year later...

Emmanuel Ogbah had a few Sacks in 2016, including this one of Joe Flacco.  

  The Browns famously drafted 14 players in 2016. One question is, were any of them any good? 

First of all, it's still very early.  Many times players emerge two or three years later.   But let's check on their progress so far: 

No. 15. Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor.  Corey had two good games, broke his ankle and never gained more than 40 receiving yards again. He got an F grade from Pro Football Focus.  Coach Jackson criticized his conditioning last year, and he had a minor offseason incident this offseason.  You can see that he has the speed and the moves to be a successful wide receiver, but he is an underachiever.  

Round 2 – No. 32. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State.  This was a bit of a head-scratcher for me, since the Browns were planning to use a 34 defense, so they drafted a guy who is perfect for the 43 defense.  Ogbah is a defensive end in the 43.   He is not a linebacker, and he is significantly undersized to play DE in the 34.  Face it, 34 DEs are 300 pound guys, and Ogbah was giving away 25 pounds.    Ogbah was impressive getting to the passer, but on running plays he was beyond awful.  I think he can be a very good player for Greg Williams, but we kind of shafted Ray Horton by giving him a player who did fit the defensive scheme. 

Round 3 No. 65. Carl Nassib, DE, Penn State.  Just to prove they were unfazed with drafting a 43 DE for a 34 defense,  they did the same thing with Carl Nassib, another 275 pound guy who played out of position his first year.  Like Ogbah, he is a much better fit to Greg Williams' defense rather than Ray Horton's.  Sorry Ray.

No. 76. Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn,  Injuries set back Coleman, but he got some playing time in the last game and definitely outplayed Cam Erving.  He may have a shot to become a regular, but took very few snaps in 2016.

No. 93. Cody Kessler, QB, USC.  I like Cody Kessler for putting up decent numbers as a rookie in a horrible offense.  Once we lost OLs Joel Bitonio and John Greco, we were toast, and accumulated more quarterback sacks and hits than the terrible 1999 expansion team.  Cody is rated as the number 22 QB by Pro Football Focus, ahead of Marcus Mariota but the media seems to hate him and can't wait to run him out of town replace him with a hotshot rookie.  I don't get it.  

Round 4

No. 99. Joe Schobert, LB, Wisconsin.  Joe did not impress as a 3-4 outside linebacker, where he was thirty pounds underweight.  He will be better off as a backup 43 outside linebacker.  

No. 114. Ricardo Louis, WR, Auburn  Ricardo did well at the Combine, though the buzz was that he wasn't that good.  But in fact he got the second most yards than of  rookie wide receivers behind Coleman  and performed well on special teams.  He was good enough to be a number 3 or 4 wide receiver.  

No. 129. Derrick Kindred, S, TCU.   Wound up on IR but showed some talent as a rookie free safety.  Good enough to get playing time as an extra safety 

No. 138* Seth DeValve, TE/WR, Princeton.  I didn't like the idea of taking a tight end who didn't have to block at Harvard, but DeValve made some sensational catches down the stretch.  I think he's a number two tight end and could improve.  further

Round 5

No. 154. Jordan Payton, WR, UCLA.  Had some drug issues and didn't do very much. F-


No. 168. Spencer Drango, OL, Baylor.  Got some playing time when injuries hit, and jumped  ahead of Shon Coleman. He was totally outclassed as a rookie and needs to improve. As a rookie he was totally an F. 

No. 172* Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State.  Showed some ability as a blocking receiver and got a start when Corey Coleman got hurt.  Another guy who was terrible but might still improve. 

No. 173* Trey Caldwell, CB, ULM.   Caldwell did okay as an extra corner.  I think he will make the team, but doesn't have much support to be awarded a starting job.  

Round 7


No. 250. Scooby Wright, LB, Arizona.  Scooby got cut and signed by the Cardinals.  Whiff.  

In summary, the Browns didn't have any rookied that actually looked good.  They have some borderline  starters in  Ogbah, Kessler, Nassib, and Corey Coleman.  Other guys who might develop into starting caliber players are Kindred, DeValve, Shon Coleman and Louis.  Guys that really need to improve are Schobert, Caldwell, Higgins, Drango and Jordan.

I think the Browns really want to give young players a shot to develop, and avoid one-and-done.  Rookie years are usually rather bad for most players, so it will be interesting to see how it works for them as second year players. I am sure they will be better, but how much better?  Will they as a group show improvement over the 3-13 2015 team of Ray Farmer?     
Considering that they lost several veterans last year, they need to have about six guys evolve into starters.  It's possible.   They got good value up and down the draft, with maybe the biggest concern at this point being the failure of Corey Coleman to play like a Pro.